Allow me to revisit something I wrote about yesterday. For the first sustained period in his major-league career, Byron Buxton has shown the ability to hit for some contact. It doesn’t mean he’s totally fixed, and he’s gone through his hot streaks before, but, with Buxton, we’re always looking for a reason to get excited. This is a new one, and in part because of Buxton doing a better job at the plate, the Twins are in wild-card position. It’s a close race, and I can practically guarantee you there’s going to be further jostling, but before the year began, we projected the Twins to be one of the worst teams in the American League. They’re poised to go to the playoffs. Outside of the mood around trade-deadline week, the year has been a fun one.

Allow me to revisit something I wrote about in May. Back then, when we were a month and a half into the season, there were promising signs up and down the Twins lineup, at least as far as plate discipline was concerned. There were suggestions of a team-wide improvement, which was sufficiently remarkable to catch my eye. The samples then were fairly small. They’re not so small anymore. Twins hitters have taken some steps. Buxton isn’t alone — something seems to be clicking, which has helped allow the Twins to get to where they are today.

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Yesterday at the site, managing editor Dave Cameron examined the early major-league success of Philadelphia corner-type Rhys Hoskins. Cameron noted that, while Hoskins’ 50 or so plate appearances were hardly sufficient to proclaim Hoskins a great success, that the process by which Hoskins had produced his strong early returns not only resembled the process with which he’s succeeded in the minors but also the sort utilized by other similarly overlooked players who’d parlayed less-than-scintillating tools into legitimate major-league careers.

Broadly speaking, Hoskins possesses what might be called the Matt Carpenter profile, but it’s also the Ian Kinsler profile and Daniel Murphy profile and Justin Turner profile. In addition to relatively modest pedigrees, this class of player exhibits two other commons traits: both (a) very high contact rates and (b) very low ground-ball rates.

Cameron notes the significance of this combination:

In general, these two metrics move in opposite directions. Guys with flat, level swings usually put the bat on the ball more often, while guys whose swings are designed for loft tend to have to accept some swing-and-miss as part of the deal. The qualified hitter with the lowest ground-ball rate this year? Joey Gallo, whom you might have heard strikes out sometimes. Such is the cost of swinging for elevation.

Players who are able both to elevate frequently and make contact at an elite rate have essentially hacked the system. They’re able to reap the benefits of getting the ball in the air without having to contend with the major cost — i.e. a decline in contact. Carpenter, Kinsler, Murphy? They all do it. Hoskins? He does it, too. Or he did it in the minors, at least. And if he continues to do it in the majors, he should exceed the expectations established by his prospect pedigree.

Hoskins likely isn’t the only prospect who possesses this combination of skills, however. And, if there are others, it might worthwhile to identify them. Which, that’s what I’ve endeavored to do here. The method I’ve utilized is a bit crude, but it nevertheless captures the basic skills for which we’re searching.

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Rob Manfred might be distancing himself from robot umps.

Last October, Manfred addressed and seemed open to the idea that tracking systems could be used to call balls and strikes:

“As technology continues to improve and those sorts of adjustments can be made [in] real time, that technology will become more feasible for use on the field. I don’t believe we are there yet.”

But last week, while speaking with USA Today’s Bob Nightengale, the MLB commissioner seemed to back away from the idea of turning over ball and strike calls to machines.

“I don’t believe the current technology is sufficient to call balls and strikes on a real-time basis,’’ Manfred says. “If and when we get to that technology — and sooner or later we’re going to get there — there’s still a fundamental question about whether or not we want to remove that human element from the game.

“There is a human aspect to that, a work aspect to it, that’s always been an important part of our game… I don’t think you can just jump to the conclusion that if you have the technology to do it that’s the right thing for your product.”

Added Nightengale: “Bravo.”

As indicated by Nightengale’s response, there’s still plenty of resistance to technology in the game — or anything that challenges tradition.

Maybe we’re further away from seeing automated calls than some thought, a fact that might be frustrating to Ian Kinsler and Joe Maddon, both of whom have voiced frustrations with calls recently.

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One of the best closers in the game is struggling. In fact, one of the best closers in the game isn’t even being used as a closer at the moment. Last week, Yankees manager Joe Girardi effectively demoted Aroldis Chapman from his end-of-game duties, stating that he would use the hard-throwing left-hander “at any point.” This followed a series of shaky outings during which Chapman conceded seven runs in 4.1 innings.

Though he possesses a strikeout rate that would still make most of the league jealous, it’s also the worst of his career. And while he’s also experienced some misfortune on balls in play, there’s a sense that the misfortune is “earned.” And it is, in a way. It’s a little bit about how he’s throwing the ball, but also a lot about where.

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More and more pitchers have been throwing four-seam fastballs at, and just above, the top of the strike zone. The trend has been influenced by multiple factors. Spin-rate data is one of them, and so is the fact that an increasing number of hitters are tailoring their swings with launch angle in mind. Well sequenced and well located — especially if it has good carry — the pitch is extremely difficult to square up.

Will hitters be able to adjust to the proliferation of high-spin heaters up and over the zone, and thus make it a less effective pitch? I asked 20 players and coaches — 10 on the hitting side of the equation and an equal number on the pitching side — for their thoughts on the subject.

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Josh Bell, Pittsburgh Pirates first baseman: “It’s definitely a tough pitch. I didn’t see a lot of them in the minor leagues. I did see them, but they’d be a little bit farther out of the zone — now it’s top of the zone and just above the letters. They’re trying to see if you can get the bat head to it. There are a lot of foul balls and swing-throughs, so if it continues this way, there will probably be a bounceback with the hitters.

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Episode 760
The prolific Travis Sawchik is a former beat reporter for the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review and author of the book Big Data Baseball. He’s also the guest on this edition of the program, during which he recalls some of the notable events from Saber Seminar and also some of the notable people from Saber Seminar.

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Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

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Audio after the jump. (Approximately 58 min play time.)

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Regardless of whether you believe that they’re good, the Twins are presently sitting in a would-be playoff position. In a crowded field for the American League’s second wild card, the Twins are alone in front, even after having sold off a closer and re-gifted a starter. That the Twins sold pieces is as good an indication as any that they didn’t expect to be here, but here they are, a team with a chance. Most of the AL teams count as teams with a chance, but who are the Twins to deny themselves an opportunity?

There’s no such thing as an organizational plan that revolves around three players, and yet there’s nothing more valuable than a young and cost-controlled star. For that reason, so much of the Twins’ greater outlook seems to depend on the development of Miguel Sano, Jose Berrios, and Byron Buxton. Last year’s Twins lost 103 games, with those three players combining for 2.6 WAR. This year’s Twins are vying for the one-game playoff, with those same three players combining already for 6.5 WAR. Very obviously, there’s been more that’s gone on. But the core has been more promising than not, with Buxton now making another attempt to emerge.

I don’t need to tell you about Buxton’s prospect pedigree. I don’t need to remind you that we’ve been teased by Buxton before. Great players have great whole seasons; talented players have great whole months. Buxton’s more of the latter than the former, but of late, he has shown something new. Buxton is teasing again, in a different way.

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