HOUSTON — Dodgers Game 4 starting pitcher Alex Wood was asked a day earlier during his media session if he had ever pitched in a championship environment like the World Series. Of course, finding a comparable is perhaps impossible given the stage and the stakes. From the podium before a room crowded with reporters, Wood said he had played in two state title games in his native Georgia. It was like a scene from The Natural when Robert Redford’s character, Roy Hobbs, upon his mysterious arrival in a major league clubhouse, tells New York Knights manager Pop Fisher (played by Wilford Brimley) that he used to play in high school.

Wood is a few hours away from his most important professional start. Not only are the Dodgers down two games to one in the World Series, but Dave Roberts continued to lean heavily on his bullpen Friday as Dodgers starting pitching Yu Darvish was only able to record five outs before Roberts appeared to dismiss him.

While Wood might be set for something of a tandem outing Saturday, the Dodgers need more than five outs from him. Read the rest of this entry »

HOUSTON — The Charlie Morton I knew in Pittsburgh was nothing like the Charlie Morton sitting before a conference room filled with national media members in the depths of Minute Maid Park on Friday afternoon.

The Morton we have seen this year in Houston, the Morton we have seen excel at times in the postseason, is a completely different iteration of the pitcher we saw for the Pirates. Morton will start Game 4 of the World Series against the Dodgers on Saturday.

The Morton I knew in Pittsburgh was a ground-ball artist, he was in many ways the Pirates’ ideal prototype pitcher during their 2013-15 run of three postseason appearances, a three-year period when they won 280 games. Morton leaned on a darting, ground-ball-inducing two-seam fastball and was directed, and believed in, pitching to contact. He was supported by a dramatic increase in infield shifts. I know this story seems rather dated, and the story has been told, but it really wasn’t that long ago that this was a cutting-edge philosophy.

Return to the present, and Morton is a bat-missing arm. He’s averaging a career-best 96.1 mph with his four-seam fastball and he’s averaging 95.1 mph with his sinker. Among pitchers who threw at least 90 innings this season, Morton ranked seventh in fastball velocity sandwiched between Stephen Strasburg and Michael Fulmer. He still has the hammer curve he’s always had, but he’s throwing it a career-best 28.4% rate along with more four-seam fastballs and more four-seamers up in the zone.
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Each week, we publish north of 100 posts on our various blogs. With this post, we hope to highlight 10 to 15 of them. You can read more on it here. The links below are color coded — green for FanGraphs, brown for RotoGraphs, dark red for The Hardball Times and blue for Community Research.
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HOUSTON — Yu Darvish left the visiting clubhouse at Minute Maid Park in a white T-shirt, a black baseball cap pulled low, and flanked by an interpreter by his side late Friday night. Down one corridor inside the bowels of the stadium was an exit route packed with guests and family of the Dodgers. He glanced at the crowd briefly and then walked in the other, less obstructed, direction.

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Free agency begins five days after the end of the World Series. As in other recent offseasons, FanGraphs is once again facilitating this offseason a contract-crowdsourcing project, the idea being to harness the wisdom of the crowds to the end of better understanding the 2017-18 free-agent market.

Below are links to ballots for five of this year’s free agents, all of them starting pitchers or probably starting pitchers.

Other Players: Yonder Alonso / Alex Avila / Jose Bautista / Carlos Beltran / Jay Bruce / Melky Cabrera / Welington Castillo / Lorenzo Cain / Zack Cozart / Jarrod Dyson / Lucas Duda / Alcides Escobar / Yunel Escobar / Todd Frazier / Carlos Gomez / Carlos Gonzalez / Curtis Granderson / Matt Holliday / Eric Hosmer / Chris Iannetta / Jon Jay / Howie Kendrick / Jonathan Lucroy / J.D. Martinez / Cameron Maybin / Mitch Moreland / Logan Morrison / Mike Moustakas / Eduardo Nunez / Brandon Phillips / Jose Reyes / Carlos Santana / Justin Upton / Neil Walker / Jayson Werth.

Jake Arrieta (Profile)
Some relevant information regarding Arrieta:

• Has averaged 198 IP and 4.5 WAR over last three seasons.
• Has averaged 4.1 WAR per 180 IP over last three seasons.
• Recorded a 2.4 WAR in 168.1 IP in 2017.
• Is projected to record 3.3 WAR per 180 IP**.
• Is entering his age-32 season.
• Made $15.6M in 2017 after avoiding arbitration in January.

*That is, a roughly average number of innings for a starting pitcher.
**Prorated version of final 2017 depth-chart projections available here.

Click here to estimate years and dollars for Arrieta.

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Ben Lindbergh and Jeff Sullivan banter about the all-time leaders in WAR for two teams, what Yu Darvish has done differently with the Dodgers, and whether Carlos Correa or Corey Seager will have the more valuable career, then answer listener emails about home-field advantage in the playoffs, projecting (and learning from) Charlie Morton’s breakout, why baseball is in a high-BABIP era, whether fielders are getting better or worse, the golden age of interleague play, what we mean when we say “short series,” challengers to Jamie Moyer’s home runs allowed record, and more.

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In terms of significant, game-changing moments, no World Series game in history compares to Wednesday night’s epic between the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Houston Astros. In the sixth inning, Corey Seager hit a two-run homer off of Justin Verlander to break a 1-1 tie. In the top of the ninth, Marwin Gonzalez hit a solo shot to tie the game 3-3. In the 10th, Jose Altuve broke the tie with a solo shot. In the bottom half of that same inning, Enrique Hernandez’s RBI single tied the game, and then in the top of the 11th, George Springer hit a two-run homer that would put the Astros up for good. Each of those five plays increased the scoring club’s chances victory by 25% according to Win Probability Added. That’s never happened before in a World Series game.

Since 2002, only one in three games have produced plays with at least one play with a WPA of .25 or greater. To put that in greater context, consider: there have been only 18 plays total this posteason that produced a WPA of .25 or greater.  Here they are, in order of impact on win probability:

Of the eight biggest plays in the postseason this year, four occurred in Game 2. Hernandez’s single in a losing effort produced the highest WPA of any play in this postseason.

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A recent Sunday Notes column published here featured the title Charlie Morton Is Different (and Better). While those words referred to his pitching identity, they could just as easily refer to his personality. The 33-year-old right-hander is about as far away from Nuke LaLoosh as you can get. Thoughtful and articulate, he is anything but a cliche-spouting dumb jock.

His career has been a roller coaster. Prior to this year’s breakout with the Houston Astros, Morton had compiled a record of 46-71 and a 4.54 ERA in nine up-and-down seasons with the Braves, Pirates, and Phillies. Injuries played a big role in the inconsistencies. Along the way Morton had multiple surgeries, including Tommy John, and repairs to both hips.

And then there’s his psyche. Morton has been guilty of getting into his own head, which has resulted in frustration and a tendency to get “too finicky about things like my mechanics and my approach.” Admittedly not serious enough in his early years of pro ball, he eventually found himself taking things too seriously for his own good.

An integral part of the Astros’ win over the Yankees in Game 7 of the ALCS, Morton is scheduled to start Game 4 of the World Series on Saturday. He talked about his evolving approach to the game — and to life — at the conclusion of the regular season.

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Charlie Morton: “Between injuries and not pitching well, and getting older… your perspective changes. You try to enjoy your time. You try to enjoy the cities you go to, you try to enjoy your teammates, you try to finish up your last few years on a high note.

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