Contract Crowdsourcing 2017-18: Ballot 5 of 15

Free agency begins five days after the end of the World Series. As in other recent offseasons, FanGraphs is once again facilitating this offseason a contract-crowdsourcing project, the idea being to harness the wisdom of the crowds to the end of better understanding the 2017-18 free-agent market.

Below are links to ballots for five of this year’s free agents, all of them outfield types.

Other Players: Yonder Alonso / Alex Avila / Welington Castillo / Zack Cozart / Lucas Duda / Alcides Escobar / Yunel Escobar / Todd Frazier / Eric Hosmer / Chris Iannetta / Howie Kendrick / Jonathan Lucroy / Mitch Moreland / Logan Morrison / Mike Moustakas / Eduardo Nunez / Brandon Phillips / Jose Reyes / Carlos Santana / Neil Walker.

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Lorenzo Cain (Profile)
Some relevant information regarding Cain:

  • Has averaged 561 PA and 4.4 WAR over last three seasons.
  • Has averaged 4.7 WAR per 600 PA* over last three seasons.
  • Recorded a 4.1 WAR in 645 PA in 2017.
  • Is projected to record 3.6 WAR per 600 PA**.
  • Is entering his age-32 season.
  • Made $11.0M in 2017 as part of extension signed in January 2016.

*That is, a roughly average number of plate appearances for a starter.
**Prorated version of final 2017 depth-chart projections available here.

Click here to estimate years and dollars for Cain.

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Expect the World Series Strike Zone to Favor the Dodgers

This should be a great World Series in large part because it’s so hard to separate the two pennant winners. The Dodgers won 104 games, but the Astros won 101. The Astros outscored their opponents by 196 runs, but the Dodgers outscored theirs by 190. The Dodgers have the possible advantage of rest, but the Astros have the possible advantage of momentum. The Astros got a midseason bump from adding Justin Verlander, but the Dodgers got a midseason bump from adding Yu Darvish. Say, the Astros might have found something by using Lance McCullers out of the bullpen. But the Dodgers have also found something by doing the same with Kenta Maeda.

When I rated all the playoff teams three weeks ago, I found the Dodgers looked the best, but the Astros were right on their heels. There’s just not much of a gap, no matter where you look. As such, I don’t think one could pick a clear favorite. Maybe you give the edge to the Dodgers, just because they could play one extra game at home. Or maybe you give the edge to the Dodgers, just because they could get the better strike zone. That’s one of the only real differences here. Technically, such a difference shouldn’t even exist, but we know that zones aren’t perfectly called or consistent, and the Dodgers have a history.

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Effectively Wild Episode 1127: A Whole New World (Series)

EWFI

Ben Lindbergh and Jeff Sullivan banter about Jeff’s weekend trip and discuss the end of the ALCS and the Astros’ crazy curveball reliance in ALCS Game 7, the Astros’ reluctance to use regular relievers, the Yankees’ outlook for 2018 and beyond, why this World Series isn’t easy to analyze, whether the Dodgers and Astros are evenly matched, what to make of the Nationals’ and Mets’ recent managerial moves, and more.

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The Dodgers Have Made It Look Way Too Easy

The Dodgers have won two playoff series, but they aren’t undefeated. Remember that the Cubs beat them by a run in NLCS Game 4. Other teams have somewhat recently advanced to the World Series without having lost. Back in 2007, the Rockies swept the NLCS, after they swept the NLDS, after they took a one-game playoff over the Padres. And in 2014, the Royals swept the ALCS, after they swept the ALDS, after they took a one-game playoff over the A’s. The Dodgers are one of six teams in the wild-card era to make the World Series by going 7-1.

And it’s not like the Dodgers have even made every win a laugher. Their most recent game was kind of the exception. In Game 2 of the NLDS, they fell behind the Diamondbacks early. In the NLCS, they trailed the Cubs by a couple runs in Game 1, and in Game 2 Justin Turner won it in the bottom of the ninth. Some nails have been bitten. The Dodgers haven’t looked completely invincible.

On the other hand, they have looked completely invincible. When you look at the numbers overall, it seems like the Dodgers have coasted. They’ve turned this postseason into a statistical mismatch.

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The Yankees’ Path Forward

On Saturday night, the Astros ended the Yankees season with a 4-0 shutout. For New York, even reaching Game 7 of the ALCS was a surprising accomplishment, as this was a team widely considered to still be in rebuilding mode heading into 2017. As a young team who became a good team faster than expected, the easy comparisons are to teams like the 2015 Cubs or the 2008 Rays, and expectations for the 2018 Yankees are now going to be particularly high given the team’s success this year.

And the Yankees are certainly setup well for the future. With Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, and Greg Bird, they have three enviable offensive building blocks for the middle of their order, and plenty of quality all-around performers like Didi Gregorius and Aaron Hicks, plus the potential upside of Clint Frazier and Gleyber Torres. And that’s just the young hitters. Few organizations in the game have a similar kind of talent base to build off of going forward.

But, similar to the Cubs, there are some legitimate questions on the pitching side of things, and a winter of inaction while counting on the kids to develop further and carry the team to the 2018 World Series is unlikely. The Yankees are both extremely well positioned for the future, but also need to do some real work this winter.

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Contract Crowdsourcing 2017-18: Ballot 4 of 15

Free agency begins five days after the end of the World Series. As in other recent offseasons, FanGraphs is once again facilitating this offseason a contract-crowdsourcing project, the idea being to harness the wisdom of the crowds to the end of better understanding the 2017-18 free-agent market.

Below are links to ballots for five of this year’s free agents, including a shortstop and some not-shortstops.

Other Players: Yonder Alonso / Alex Avila / Welington Castillo / Zack Cozart / Lucas Duda / Eric Hosmer / Chris Iannetta / Howie Kendrick / Jonathan Lucroy / Mitch Moreland / Logan Morrison / Eduardo Nunez / Brandon Phillips / Carlos Santana / Neil Walker.

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Alcides Escobar (Profile)
Some relevant information regarding A. Escobar:

  • Has averaged 658 PA and 0.8 WAR over last three seasons.
  • Has averaged 0.8 WAR per 600 PA* over last three seasons.
  • Recorded a 0.5 WAR in 629 PA in 2017.
  • Is projected to record 0.5 WAR per 600 PA**.
  • Is entering his age-31 season.
  • Made $6.5M in 2017 as part of deal signed in March 2012.

*That is, a roughly average number of plate appearances for a starter.
**Prorated version of final 2017 depth-chart projections available here.

Click here to estimate years and dollars for A. Escobar.

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Travis Sawchik FanGraphs Chat

12:04
Travis Sawchik: Happy World Series week …

12:04
Travis Sawchik: Let’s get started, folks

12:04
Batflips for BBs: In regards to league expansion, what are your thoughts on Mexico City? Seems like it would open up an entirely new market.

12:05
Travis Sawchik: I really like the idea of Mexico City as an expansion candidate

12:06
Travis Sawchik: I think MLB would do well to place a team there. It would be a national team for Mexico and the average income in Mexico City is not far off from major US cities

12:06
Travis Sawchik: Now the logistics and other matters might delay Mexico City … but I do think there will eventually be a team there. But will it be this round or 2045? I don’t know

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Kenley Jansen Is Marvelous

Kenley Jansen has only been charged with earned runs in two of his 24 career postseason appearances.
(Photo: TonyTheTiger)

Kenley Jansen certainly hasn’t been ignored around here. Back in June, for instance, Travis looked at how Jansen’s reliance on a single pitch compares to Mariano Rivera’s. And yet, I still feel like we don’t really appreciate just how great Jansen really is. Throughout this postseason, so much of the focus seems to go to Clayton Kershaw and Justin Turner. Or if not them, then colorful characters like Yasiel Puig or feel-good stories like Chris Taylor. Often, Jansen feels lost. Now, maybe that’s just a case of me miscalculating the extent of the coverage he receives or just being far too tired to think straight by the time Jansen gets into games, but I feel like the big righty is a little underappreciated. But if he performs the way that he’s been performing, that may change for good this week.

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How the Dodgers Made Their Great Bullpen

It would be easy to assume that the Dodgers bullpen is just another part of the club bought and paid for by means of the organization’s massive and unrivaled resources. With the team’s payroll and competitive-balance expenses coming to roughly $250 million this season — itself a substantive decrease over the $300 million outlays of the 2014-16 campaigns — the Dodgers clearly have the capacity to spend with little restraint. And they’ve certainly utilized some of that financial might to the end of bullpen construction: the club, for example, brought back free-agent closer Kenley Jansen by guaranteeing him $80 million over five seasons.

For the most part, however, the Dodgers haven’t built their bullpen on high-salaried free agents or top prospects. Instead, they’ve mostly cobbled it together with a series of low-risk trades and signings, addressing needs in-season when needed without giving up prospects of significance.

Los Angeles opened up this season with a payroll of about $235 million. Close to $50 million of that total was designated for players no longer on the roster. Of the remaining money, half went to the starting rotation. Another 40% was earmarked for Andre Ethier, Adrian Gonzalez, Yasmani Grandal, Yasiel Puig, and Justin Turner. As far as the bullpen, there was Kenley Jansen and his big salary, of course. The second-highest salary in the bullpen at the start of the season went to Sergio Romo, though, who was guaranteed $3 million by the club in February. That figure was the third-highest guarantee the Dodgers have made to a reliever since Andrew Friedman took over operations after the 2014 season. That’s three full offseasons, and the second-biggest free agent guarantee the team has made to a reliever was the $4 million for Joe Blanton a few years ago.

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Thirty-Two Is a Magic Number for MLB

Please pardon this break from playoff-related content.

Writing for Baseball America earlier this month, longtime baseball scribe Tracy Ringolsby reported there’s “building consensus” that MLB is soon headed toward expansion and a 32-team structure and perhaps a 156-game schedule.

There have been rumblings of expansion for some time.

As a guest in the Rockies’ broadcast booth back in August, MLB commissioner Rob Manfred was asked about expansion. He again suggested that the stadium issues in Oakland and Tampa must first be resolved. But once those situations are put to rest, MLB seems committed to expansion. Manfred has said baseball is, ultimately, a “growth industry.” Manfred then, during the broadcast, mentioned other incentives for expansion that this author hadn’t previously heard the commissioner address.

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