Buster Posey and Public Displays of Disaffection

The television camera changes everything. Imagine being broadcast at work, at school, at your local coffee shop or bar, or wherever you spend most of your time in public. Were every move to be recorded, one’s behavior (I presume) would be inclined to change. My behavior certainly would. I would want the world most often to see the best of me. It’s human nature to be liked, to be accepted, to avoid controversy.

So it was quite unusual to see Buster Posey become so publicly annoyed with a teammate on Saturday because (a) we rarely see players exhibit such emotion on television and (b) Posey’s public face is generally one of mild-mannered tranquility.

But Posey isn’t accustomed to this much losing. He knows that the Giants are in a tough spot, already 10 games back in the NL West and seven games under .500, with the Rockies and Diamondbacks looking like legitimate postseason contenders in addition to the favored Dodgers. The Giants are, of course, also without their ace Madison Bumgarner. Perhaps Posey’s tolerance threshold for nonsense and mental errors — and this is pure speculation — has been diminished.

So in the ninth inning Saturday night, Posey lost any concern for appearances. He had enough with Brandon Belt apparently zoning out and failing to keep the runner — in this case, Stephen Piscotty — close to the bag. Piscotty went on to steal second in a relatively close game. Always pay attention to Buster.

Despite knowing that every movement is being documented, Posey didn’t hide his indignation and wait for the privacy of the clubhouse to protect a teammate from public rebuke:

This isn’t the face of a pleased catcher:

Nor was this the first instance of on-field discord between Posey and Belt — a point noted by longtime Giants beat writer Henry Schulman noted after the game:

Matt Carpenter flied out to end the game, Belt gave Posey an icy stare in the handshake line, after which Posey apparently turned to say something to the first baseman.

This was not the first time the cameras caught Posey expressing displeasure with Belt.

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Mike Leake Was Leading the National League in ERA

Let us consider, for a moment, the matter of Mike Leake.

The mental image you have of Leake is probably that of a serviceable mid-to-back-end starter. Leake doesn’t strike many guys out, and he’s perhaps walked a few too many men for comfort considering his lack of punchouts. Leake does not make your team a contender, but he makes it viable. He’s a good bowl of potato leek soup if you’ll pardon the unwitting pun: not your first choice on the menu, but one that’s hearty and comforting when done right. Teams need good bowls of soup. They’re not much if they only have superstars and super-scrubs. They need something in the middle. They need arms to throw decent innings. Mike Leake has been that man for years.

Until now, perhaps. Before Clayton Kershaw took the mound last night and threw nine innings of one-run ball, Leake had the lowest ERA in the National League at 2.03. Kershaw has now assumed his rightful place at the head of the pack with a 2.01. That would seem like a return to normalcy — that is, if Leake’s 2.03 ERA itself weren’t so abnormal.

As you might suspect, the underlying metrics don’t think Leake is pitching exactly this well. His 3.18 FIP is still quite good, while his 3.73 DRA is less enthusiastic. His ground-ball rate is identical to last year’s, while he’s allowing fewer line drives and more fly balls. Opposing batters are putting just .244 when they put the ball in play against him, which is interesting considering that the Cardinals haven’t been all that great on defense this year. He’s not creating especially soft or hard contact, either. He’s near the middle of the league in average exit velocity.

So what exactly is going on here? How does a soul-warming bowl of soup turn into a delicacy?

Let us consider, for a moment, the St. Louis rotation.

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Salvador Perez Is Making the Most of Swinging at Everything

Salvador Perez has been aggressive from the start. He’s long been an aggressive hitter, and a talented bat-to-ball hitter, and pitchers have responded as you’d expect. This is Perez’s seventh year in the big leagues. In every successive year, he’s seen a lower rate of pitches in the zone. He’s also steadily seen fewer fastballs, this year owning the lowest fastball rate in the game. Perez doesn’t see strikes because he swings at balls, and for the same reason, he seldom draws a walk. In each of Perez’s last three seasons, he’s finished with an OBP under .300. For that matter, he’s finished with an OBP under .290.

Perez is no stranger to having a hot start, so, bear that in mind. But something so far this year is unusual. Again, he’s not seeing many strikes, and he’s not seeing many fastballs. Accordingly, he hasn’t drawn walks, because he’s still chasing as often as ever. Yet Perez is hitting for power, sitting on a 127 wRC+. There’s a long way to go before we know what Perez truly is, but he looks to be building on a process started last year. Salvador Perez is fully focused on finding left field.

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Baseball’s Toughest (and Easiest) Schedules So Far

When you look up and see that the Athletics are in the midst of a two-game mid-week series against the Marlins in late May, you might suspect that the major-league baseball schedule is simply an exercise in randomness. At this point in the campaign, that’s actually sort of the case. The combination of interleague play and the random vagaries of an early-season schedule conspire to mean that your favorite team hasn’t had the same schedule as your least favorite team. Let’s try to put a number on that disparity.

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Michael Conforto Hits the Ball Everywhere

Let’s begin with something pleasing. We’re all in a good mood. Here’s Michael Conforto hitting an unnecessary home run on Tuesday:

That home run didn’t matter in part because, earlier in the game, Michael Conforto hit a home run. And it didn’t matter in part because, earlier in the game, Conforto hit a two-run single. It was a good night to be Michael Conforto. It’s been a good year to be Michael Conforto.

As things stand, Conforto ranks 11th among position players in WAR. The weird news is he’s behind Zack Cozart. The better news is he’s tied with Buster Posey. Just by hitting, Conforto’s fifth in wRC+, between Ryan Zimmerman and Bryce Harper. There was concern coming into the season that Conforto might not end up with enough playing time. Circumstances have allowed him to play plenty, and now he’s made himself impossible to sit.

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Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 5/24/17

2:01
Dan Szymborski: It’s party time! A very disappointing party, with reading text instead of beer.

2:01
The Average Sports Fan: How do you feel about the 70’s Earl Weaver approach to developing young pitchers in the bullpen before putting them in the rotation?

2:02
Dan Szymborski: I think it’s a good approach. It gets pitchers comfortable in the majors in lower-key situations (presuming you choose those). It saves some innings.

2:02
Tim: Is Starlin Castro under rated?

2:02
Dan Szymborski: Nah, he’s about rated.

2:03
Rusty: What is happening to Julio Urias? He did not look very sharp in his first go-around this year.

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Red Sox Prospect Jalen Beeks Is Breeding Contempt in the Eastern League

Jalen Beeks is quietly emerging as one of the top pitching prospects in the Red Sox organization. The 23-year-old lefty has made seven starts for the Double-A Portland Sea Dogs, and he’s kept the opposition off the scoreboard in five of them. His ERA is a frugal 1.60, and he’s fanned 48 batters over 39.1 frames.

On the surface, Beeks is more about craftiness than power. The University of Arkansas product stands an unimposing 5-foot-11, and his repertoire doesn’t include a plus-plus offering. His biggest asset has been an ability to mix and match, and keep hitters off balance.

Which isn’t to say he’s all about finesse. A scout to whom I spoke during his most recent outing opined that Beeks has good stuff, and that consistency and command are the keys to his future success. Having options should help. The former Razorback had a crisp curveball on the day I saw him, which helped make up for a cutter that wasn’t sharp. Beeks had pointed to the latter when I asked about his breakout.

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The Yankees and the Stanford Marshmallow Experiment

My wife is a school psychologist here in the Pittsburgh area, so naturally I learn about the profession and the field. One test of interest, and some amusement, that she’s discussed involves children and the concept of delayed gratification. Testers use all sorts of sugar-laden incentives for the evaluation. The tester presents a child with a cookie or chocolate or something else and informs the four-year-old that, after a short period of time, if the child can avoid the temptation to indulge in the first snack, that said child will receive a second. (I’m not sure such a test of will power would be all that easy for adults, either.)

The study, I believe, traces its origins to the Stanford Marshmallow Experiment conduced in the late 1960s by psychologist Walter Mischel. The kids tested were given one marshmallow, and then a second if they were able to endure about a 15-minute wait. Follow-up studies found that the children who were able to wait generally had better life-outcomes, though the experiment is not without their critics. The Atlantic revisited the study in 2014:

Studies showed that a child’s ability to delay eating the first treat predicted higher SAT scores and a lower body mass index (BMI) 30 years after their initial Marshmallow Test. Researchers discovered that parents of “high delayers” even reported that they were more competent than “instant gratifiers”—without ever knowing whether their child had gobbled the first marshmallow.

While such a study and its small sample is, of course, imperfect, I think reasonable people can agree there are many merits to delayed gratification for children and adults.

So that brings me to the New York Yankees. The club is somewhat surprisingly resides in first place in the AL East more than a quarter of the way through the season, and boasts of the second-best run-differential in the American League (+53), trailing only the Astros (+58). BaseRuns suggests the Yankees actually deserve to be a game better than their actual standing (27-16).

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Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat – 5/24/17

12:00
Dave Cameron: Happy Wednesday, everyone.

12:00
Dave Cameron: We’re nearly two months into what is turning out to be a pretty interesting season.

12:01
Dave Cameron: So let’s talk about it.

12:01
Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: Chris Archer is on a team-friendly contract and central to a Rays team that would like to be competitive over the next few years. He is also second in the AL in WAR behind Sale. I see a lot of Cubs et al. fans talk about trading for Archer, but do you actually see anyone paying the price the Rays would demand to move their competitive window back? Quintana’s gotta go somewhere, and that’s a nifty consolation prize.

12:02
Dave Cameron: No, I don’t think the Rays trade Archer unless they fall apart in the next month. The Red Sox early struggles have made the AL East pretty winnable, and I’d imagine the Rays aren’t going to punt their next few years unless things go south.

12:02
Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: You have suggested that teams may have better data models than other analysts which may cause them to evaluate players differently. Have you talked to August Fagerstrom about lines of research the amateur community could pursue to be more in-line with team research (without divulging proprietary data, of course)?

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Daily Prospect Notes: 5/24

Daily notes on prospects from lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen. Read previous installments here.

Ryan Burr, RHP, Arizona (Profile)
Level: Low-A   Age: 22   Org Rank: NR   Top 100: NR
Line: 2 IP, 1 H, 0 BB, 1 R, 3 K

Notes
Burr was remarkably consistent at Arizona State, sitting 93-96 with an above average slider each time I saw him. After dealing with injuries last year, he’s back to missing bats, albeit at a lower level than one might like to see from a college prospect in his second full pro season. He has setup-man upside if everything is intact.

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