| 2:46 |
: Finally able to get into Jotcast!
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| 2:47 |
: It wasn’t taking my password on this PC and it took me awhile to recover it! lol
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| 2:47 |
: Is anyone still here?
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| 2:47 |
: Hi Dan, big fan here. Are the Mets doomed?
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| 2:47 |
: Mildly. They seem uninterested in flippin the script.
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| 2:47 |
: Is Max Scherzer going to No-Hit the Marlins today?
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After a five-year run as one of the best players in baseball, Andrew McCutchen put up the worst year of his career in 2016. His strikeouts went up, his power and BABIP went down, and his defense was bad enough to finally precipitate a move out of center field. All told, McCutchen produced just +0.7 WAR last year, and when the team hung a superstar asking price on him in trades over the winter, they didn’t find anyone willing to meet their demands.
| 12:01 |
: Happy Wednesday, everyone.
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| 12:01 |
: Or pre-ACL reconstruction day for me. This is my last day with mobility for a while.
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| 12:02 |
: So let’s talk about players whose knees aren’t about to get cut open.
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| 12:02 |
: Dave, The baseballs are juiced/changed right? I don’t think there is even a debate anymore.
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| 12:02 |
: There’s definitely still a debate. There’s circumstantial evidence that suggests the ball is different now, but it isn’t a fair reading of the evidence to suggest we’ve removed all doubt.
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| 12:03 |
: I think the ball probably is different. It makes the most sense. But we don’t *know*.
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Hitters are generating thunderous contact at a record clip, with pitchers in both leagues under siege. Last week, we examined the ERA-qualifying AL starting pitchers who have been the best at limiting damage, looking at their underlying batted-ball allowed data to see whether their performances are real. Today, we avert our gaze toward qualifying NL starting pitchers.
When Jordan Montgomery was an unknown quantity as a prospect hurler in the Yankees’ organization, we wondered if his new slider was good enough to make him a back-end starter. Then he showed us the slider, and we wondered how good he could be going forward. But then the league scouted the pitch, and something changed. The good news is that Montgomery has adjusted again, and it all has to do with the batter’s decision to swing.
Daily notes on prospects from lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen. Read previous installments here.
Pedro Gonzalez, CF, Colorado (Profile)
Level: Short Season Age: 19 Org Rank: 7 Top 100: NR
Line: 4-for-5, 2B, BB, SB, CS
Notes
Gonzalez spent much of extended spring training in the Dominican Republic. Colorado doesn’t have an AZL team, so Gonzalez went directly from the DR to Grand Junction, his second year at that affiliate. Because of this, it has been hard for clubs, even those who place a heavier priority on complex-level scouting, to get eyes on Gonzalez. He remains physically projectable at a lean, broad-shoulder 6-foot-5, 190, and he’s a plus runner under way.
His defensive instincts draw mixed reviews, but he has the speed to stay there and try to polish his routes over time. If he fills out, slows down, and has to move to a corner it probably means he’s grown into enough power to profile there, at which point it will become imperative that he quell his desire to chase breaking balls off the plate.
There are two types of stories you might be growing tired of reading. This guy figured out how to hit home runs. Well, there are home runs everywhere. And, this guy figured out how to get more strikeouts. Well, there are also strikeouts everywhere. Home runs. Strikeouts. Home runs. Strikeouts. It can feel sometimes like the game is nothing but home runs and strikeouts. It’s not, but it is more than it’s ever been. I’m sure many of you are craving diversity.
But Brad Peacock is leading all starting pitchers in strikeout rate. Not Chris Sale. Not Max Scherzer or Clayton Kershaw or Corey Kluber. Brad Peacock. Yeah, I had to lower the innings minimum, because Peacock hasn’t been starting the whole time, but when he was a reliever earlier on, he got a whole bunch of strikeouts, too. Let me show you a table, including 2016 and 2017 contact rates allowed:
| Pitcher | 2016 Contact% | 2017 Contact% | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Peacock | 80.8% | 66.7% | -14.1% |
| Corey Knebel | 80.3% | 66.7% | -13.6% |
| George Kontos | 77.8% | 67.0% | -10.8% |
| Craig Kimbrel | 66.4% | 56.3% | -10.1% |
| Chris Devenski | 72.7% | 62.7% | -10.0% |
| Mike Clevinger | 78.6% | 69.2% | -9.4% |
| Jeff Hoffman | 85.0% | 75.9% | -9.1% |
| Sean Manaea | 77.3% | 68.6% | -8.7% |
| Bud Norris | 80.1% | 71.6% | -8.5% |
| Zack Greinke | 78.6% | 70.1% | -8.5% |
| Anthony Swarzak | 79.6% | 71.1% | -8.5% |
| Danny Salazar | 76.4% | 67.9% | -8.5% |
Peacock has a long history of pretty average contact rates. Relatedly, he was essentially a replacement-level pitcher. Now a third of all swing attempts are missing. This can’t not be discussed. Strikeouts might be everywhere, sure, but this is the first time Peacock has managed to find them.
Ben Lindbergh and Jeff Sullivan banter about the results of Jeff’s survey about what constitutes a “jam,” Justin Verlander’s comments about the height of baseball seams, and a Mike Chernoff quote about working in baseball, then talk to writer Joe Lemire about his glossary of scouting terminology, the evolution of scouting, and the unbreakable link between baseball and Marriott hotels.
Podcast (effectively-wild): Play in new window | Download
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| 6:23 |
:
What is tonight’s best 7 pm matchup?
CLE (Tomlin) vs. BAL (Tillman) (9.6% | 13 votes)
LAA (Bridwell) vs. NYY (Pineda) (8.8% | 12 votes)
STL (Leake) vs. PHI (Hellickson) (3.7% | 5 votes)
CIN (Garrett) vs. TB (Cobb) (9.6% | 13 votes)
WAS (Gonzalez) vs. MIA (Volquez) (40.0% | 54 votes)
SF (Moore) vs. ATL (Teheran) (20.0% | 27 votes)
PIT (Kuhl) vs. MIL (Davies) (8.1% | 11 votes)
Total Votes: 135
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| 6:25 |
:
SD (Chacin) vs. CHC (Montgomery)
TOR (Liriano) vs. TEX (Martinez) (0% | 0 votes)
CHW (Holland) vs. MIN (Santana) (0% | 0 votes)
BOS (Sale) vs. KC (Strahm) (0% | 0 votes)
ARI (Greinke) vs. COL (Marquez) (0% | 0 votes)
HOU (Martes) vs. OAK (Gray) (0% | 0 votes)
DET (Zimmermann) vs. SEA (Miranda) (0% | 0 votes)
NYM (Gsellman) vs. LAD (McCarthy) (0% | 0 votes)
Total Votes: 0
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| 6:26 |
:
What is tonight’s best 8 pm ET or later matchup?
SD (Chacin) vs. CHC (Montgomery) (2.1% | 3 votes)
TOR (Liriano) vs. TEX (Martinez) (2.8% | 4 votes)
CHW (Holland) vs. MIN (Santana) (1.4% | 2 votes)
BOS (Sale) vs. KC (Strahm) (25.8% | 36 votes)
ARI (Greinke) vs. COL (Marquez) (32.3% | 45 votes)
HOU (Martes) vs. OAK (Gray) (26.6% | 37 votes)
DET (Zimmermann) vs. SEA (Miranda) (2.1% | 3 votes)
NYM (Gsellman) vs. LAD (McCarthy) (6.4% | 9 votes)
Total Votes: 139
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| 6:30 |
:
What do you think is the right way to decide who is selected for the All-Star Game?
Players who have had great first 2-2.5 months of current season (41.0% | 60 votes)
Players who have been stars for the previous 2-3 seasons, regardless of current season performance? (2.7% | 4 votes)
Some combination of the two (52.0% | 76 votes)
Other (say in comments) (4.1% | 6 votes)
Total Votes: 146
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| 6:31 |
:
Now that all the balloting for the All-Star Game is online, do you think fans should be allowed to vote for the starting pitcher?
Yes (55.1% | 80 votes)
No (31.0% | 45 votes)
Maybe? (13.7% | 20 votes)
Total Votes: 145
|
| 9:00 |
: Hi everybody!
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Clayton Kershaw got the win against the Mets last night. From one perspective, he was fantastic. He faced 25 batters, and struck 10 of them out, issuing but one single walk. He threw more than two-thirds of his pitches for strikes, and he pitched himself into the seventh inning. The problem was that, of the 14 batters who hit the ball fair, four of them went deep. Kershaw was charged with a season-high six runs allowed, giving him a game ERA of just about 9.
Let it be acknowledged right away: Kershaw’s still amazing. Kershaw’s still an ace. He still has one of the game’s highest strikeout rates, and he still seldom issues any walks. He’s near the top among starters in ERA-, and he’s even closer to the top by xFIP-. Kershaw might be literally the last pitcher on the planet you’d want to catch yourself worrying about. There’s just this one thing I can’t get past: Kershaw has coughed up 17 homers. That is, already, a new career high.