Because most of my writing for FanGraphs is based on my KATOH projection system, you might regard me as the exact opposite of a scout. My work is often presented against the backdrop of traditional scouting lists in an effort to identify players who may by underrated by the scouting consensus. Lately, though, I’ve been trying to see more prospects in person in order to put faces and bodies to the stat lines I spend so much time analyzing.

Specifically, I’ve attended a number of high-school and college games this spring in an effort to see as many draft-eligible prospect as possible, including a few who are likely to be selected in the first two rounds tonight. My looks have been defined by one constraint, however — namely, my general reluctance to leave the five boroughs of New York.

What follows is specific sort of document, then, based on a combination of in-person looks, statistical performance, and geography. It is, in short, the pref list of someone who refused to stray far from New York City while compiling it. The mediocre scouting video is my own. KATOH numbers are included for college players and represent projected WAR over first six major-league seasons.

1. MJ Melendez, C, Westminster Christian HS

Westminster Christian isn’t located in New York, at all, but rather the Miami area. The school’s baseball team visited Brooklyn’s Grand Street Campus in April, though, so they’re eligible for this list.

Melendez is the catcher for Westminster Christian. He’s a joy to watch behind the plate, and I’m not sure I’ve ever seen a catcher move the way he does. He sets a low target with his Tony Pena-esque stance and has the arm strength and athleticism to throw to second from his knees — a maneuver that made Benito Santiago an elite defensive catcher back in the day. He also showed quick hands at the plate. High-school catchers are always a gamble, but Melendez oozes athleticism, so perhaps he’s a gamble worth taking.

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Long-time UCLA baseball coach Gary Adams was nearing the end of his coaching tenure when he made his way to The Ball Yard in 2003 to talk hitting philosophy. The Ball Yard is a spartan hitting facility, containing two batting cages, located in a nondescript building in a business park in Chatsworth, Calif. There, Doug Latta and Craig Wallenbrock, a former major-league scout, worked as private hitting instructors. There was a UCLA connection: Bruins star Chase Utley was a client of Wallenbrock, and other UCLA players had worked at the facility.

Whatever you want to call the effort in the majors to hit balls less often on the ground, much of the grassroots movement — many of the alternatives to traditional and professional hitting philosophy — began at places like The Ball Yard, the hitting equivalent to garage start-ups.

At some point, Adams and Latta engaged in a separate conversation as they walked to exit the facility. After Adams listened to their philosophies on the swing, after hearing Latta’s antipathy for a ground-ball-oriented approach, Adams asked Latta a hypothetical question: what kind of swing would he have recommended Dave Roberts to adopt? Robert was a former UCLA standout under Adams, one who became a useful major-league player, mostly known for his speed. He is, of course, now the manager of the Los Angeles Dodgers. Roberts slashed .266/.342/.366 over parts of 10 major-league seasons.

Even many proponents of the #NoGroundballs club would look at Roberts as an exception, a player who should put the ball on the ground to ensure that his speed is a factor as often as possible. As a layman of hitting mechanics, that concept makes sense to this author.

“I think that’s what Dave did. He made it to the big leagues,” Latta said of hitting ground balls. “But I think Dave Roberts could have had an outstanding career. He had incredible makeup. He’s a phenomenal manager because of his makeup and the way he approached the game. Good outfielder. But what happens if he suddenly hits like a Justin Turner? (Turner is a Latta client.) He could have been one of the great lead-off men of his generation.”

Had he worked with Roberts, Latta would have recommended dramatic swing changes. Perhaps today’s Roberts comp is Billy Hamilton: a player with incredible speed but whose swing and whose ability to hit have limited his overall value and the utility of his speed. Hamilton is a player who has probably been coached to hit the ball on the ground since he began playing baseball. With changes to his approach and swing, Latta thinks, the offensively challenged Hamilton could get to some untapped potential. (Hamilton has a 60 wRC+ for the season and 70 for his career.)

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric forefather Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game.

How are they calculated? Haphazardly, is how. An explanation of the components and formulae which produce these NERD scores is available here. All objections to the numbers here are probably justified, on account of how this entire endeavor is absurd.

Most Highly Rated Game
Chicago NL at New York NL | 19:10 ET
Lackey (70.1 IP, 95 xFIP-) vs. deGrom (72.0 IP, 76 xFIP-)
As noted by Dave Cameron already this morning, the 2017 MLB draft begins tonight. The event provides an opportunity to contemplate the respective futures of talented young amateur players. It also represents an occasion on which to remember the (sometimes unlikely) origins of talented current majors leaguers.

One such talented current major leaguer is right-hander Jacob deGrom, who was selected by the Mets out of Stetson University in the ninth round of the 2010 draft. A player selected at that point in the draft can be expected to produce, on average, slightly more than a win over the course of his entire career. Since 1965, pitchers drafted in the ninth round who subsequently signed with the selecting club have recorded 0.6 WAR a piece. As for deGrom, he’s already compiled 13 career wins, or 20 times more than one might expect by that measure. He is, like all of us, an anomaly.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: New York NL Television.

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Ben Lindbergh and Jeff Sullivan banter about Aaron Judge’s latest home runs, Terrance Gore’s first home run, the Angels without Mike Trout, and a Mets precedent for the odd Neifi Perez appearance discussed on the previous episode, then talk to listener Ryan Nelson about his research into which teams have had the most and least recent success in the amateur draft and what fans should expect from a typical team’s draft class.

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The 2017 MLB Draft kicks off tonight at 7 p.m. ET, and the Minnesota Twins will have the first pick from what is generally considered to be a pretty a mediocre class. And how the rest of the draft goes depends on how the Twins answer one pretty simple question: can a high-end MLB player really contribute as both a hitter and a pitcher?

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric forefather Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game.

How are they calculated? Haphazardly, is how. An explanation of the components and formulae which produce these NERD scores is available here. All objections to the numbers here are probably justified, on account of how this entire endeavor is absurd.

Most Highly Rated Game
Minnesota at San Francisco | 16:05 ET
Turley (MLB Debut) vs. Cain (64.2 IP, 119 xFIP-)
After pitching brilliantly at both Double- and Triple-A this season, left-hander Nik Turley is expected to make his major-league debut this afternoon for the Minnesota Twins. Drafted originally by the Yankees in 2008, Turley has been employed by Boston, San Francisco, and Somerset (of the independent Atlantic League) in the meantime. Signed by the Twins as a minor-league free agent this past offseason, Turley has now recorded strikeout and walk rates of 41.2% and 7.4%, respectively, over roughly 50 innings. That performance has earned him a place atop the arbitrarily calculated Fringe Five Scoreboard curated by the present author.

If his minor-league starts are any indication, Turley will throw a combination of fastball and curveball almost exclusively. The former sits in the low 90s and he often works it to the top part of the zone to complement the latter one. Both sorts of pitches are featured in what follows — namely, video footage documenting some of Gleyber Torres’s whiffs against the Turley from last Tuesday.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: San Francisco Radio or Television.

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Daniel Norris has no illusions of being Clayton Kershaw, but that doesn’t mean he doesn’t want to emulate him. Who wouldn’t? Kershaw is arguably baseball’s best pitcher, and — according to the Detroit Tigers southpaw — they share important characteristics. For those reasons, Norris watches “almost all of Kershaw’s starts,” and has for some time.

“I like watching him pitch,” Norris told me on Friday. “And because we’re similar, I can learn from him. He’s the best in the world — he’s Kershaw — but he’s a lefty, he’s typically 93-95, he’s got a slider that’s 88-90, he’s got a curveball that’s 73-76, and he’s started throwing a changeup. That’s four pitches that I throw, as well. If I can pick up something from the way he maybe throws his slider down-and-in more often than he goes backdoor… stuff like that. I like how he attacks hitters.”

Norris also likes how Kershaw, despite being elite, continues to evolve. He pointed to how the Dodgers ace has not only started throwing more changeups, he’s also “kind of dropping down from time to time, to give hitters different angles.” Norris has noticed subtle “delivery adjustments” over the years, where Kershaw appeared to be “working on mechanical rhythms and tempos.”

Norris is currently doing exactly that. Consistency and command have been issues for the 24-year-old former Toronto Blue Jay, and he feels that a work-in-progress tweak may help solve those woes. He described it as “kind of a higher leg kick, and getting a stronger front side.” One of the goals is a freer and easier delivery. Rather than being out there “trying not to walk guys,” he feels he needs to “not think about anything, just let it go and trust my stuff.” Read the rest of this entry »

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric forefather Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game.

How are they calculated? Haphazardly, is how. An explanation of the components and formulae which produce these NERD scores is available here. All objections to the numbers here are probably justified, on account of how this entire endeavor is absurd.

Most Highly Rated Game
Cincinnati at Los Angeles NL | 22:10 ET
Wojciechowski (14.0 IP, 122 xFIP-) vs. Wood (48.0 IP, 57 xFIP-)
Over just eight starts (and 10 appearances total), left-hander Alex Wood has already recorded the WAR figure (roughly two wins, whether calculated by FIP or ERA) one would expect from an average starter over the course of an entire season. If he performs at a similar level over the next two-thirds of the year, he’ll have supplied production equivalent to three average starting pitchers. Would it be right, in that case, to regard him as one man or three men? “Both,” is one possible answer.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Los Angeles NL Television.

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