It’s June 1st. The Cubs are supposed to be running away with the NL Central right now, like the Astros and Nationals are doing in their divisions. Instead, the defending champs are 25-27, in third place in the NL Central, and only a game up on the rebuilding Reds. For a team that was being hailed as a dynasty in the making, this isn’t how 2017 was supposed to go. So what’s the deal? Why did last year’s juggernaut turn into this year’s mediocrity?
| 1:33 |
: man look at that Angels lineup, someday they’ll be looking back at that and think about Trout and this song will be playing
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| 12:00 |
: You believe in May Jimmy Nelson?
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| 12:01 |
: You know what… I might. Ever since he shelved the Curve for two games, it’s come back slower and more different than his slider, so he’s worked on the differential between the two breaking balls it looks like. And that differential was the worst in the league between heavy two breaker users in the past.
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| 12:02 |
: I’M FREAKING OUT WE ARE 2 GAMES BELOW .500 AND ON A 6 GAME LLLLLL FLAG STREAK HELP
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| 12:03 |
: I like how I don’t even know who ‘we’ is here.
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| 12:03 |
: Eno! My man! #TANAK. WTF?
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After talking recently with Daniel Murphy about launch angles and the like, I walked over to one of my brethren in hair Anthony Rendon and asked for some of his time. “I’m probably the worst person to talk to about this,” said the Nationals third baseman, already laughing. “Worst person ever!” added his next door neighbor Trea Turner. “I change strictly off of feel. Trying to talk to me about this launch-angle stuff…” Rendon said, gesturing with a wave towards Murphy. “I’m going off feel.”
That’s fine. For hitters, sometimes the best means to changing mechanically is simply to change the intention and focus on a different part of the field, like Yonder Alonso did. Very specific cues and jargon-laden research? Those are for the heady few.
But Rendon is a little different for another reason. While other batters are swinging for the fences and changing their approach radically, Rendon has achieved more power this year by adjusting in a very subtle way that allows him to make more of his level swing.
Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric forefather Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game.
How are they calculated? Haphazardly, is how. An explanation of the components and formulae which produce these NERD scores is available here. All objections to the numbers here are probably justified, on account of how this entire endeavor is absurd.
Most Highly Rated Game
Oakland at Cleveland | 12:10 ET
Cotton (43.2 IP, 120 xFIP-) vs. Kluber (37.1 IP, 87 xFIP-)
The 2017 season hasn’t begun for Jharel Cotton in the way that leading experts like the author would have predicted. As a leading expert, I assumed that his plus-plus changeup alone would lead to a distinctly above-average strikeout rate. So far, however, he’s produced almost a precisely average strikeout rate. It’s always surprising when leading experts are wrong. Look no further than this situation involving Jharel Cotton and a leading expert.
Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Cleveland Radio.
Daily notes on prospects from lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen. Read previous installments here.
Bo Bichette, SS, Toronto (Profile)
Level: Low-A Age: 19 Org Rank: 10 Top 100: NR
Line: 3-for-4, HR
Notes
Now at .381/.458/.619 on the year, the Bo Bichette I saw as an amateur looks like the outlier and not the one who was arguably the best prospect at some later showcases before the draft. While Bichette’s style of hitting violates Lansing noise ordinances, his feel for contact and hand-eye coordination are sublime and he has plus-plus bat speed. Bichette is also showing a measured two-strike approach. He’s making a case for top-100 consideration, even though he’s unlikely to stay at short.
Location: Coplay, Pa.
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Sports Info Solutions is looking for candidates to fill a paid internship in our R&D Department in the summer and fall seasons. Ideally, the candidate will be available in early-to-mid June through the end of the year. The intern will work out of our office near Allentown, Pa., and will assist our R&D team, supporting research for publications and future products. Recent R&D interns have landed internships and full-time jobs with major league teams.
The position requires a variety of skills including (but not limited to) an analytical mind, computer expertise, writing ability, and a passion for football and baseball.
This past Tuesday night against Oakland — just as there have been at other times this season — Trevor Bauer showed glimpses of the bat-missing strikeout artist he can be, the top-of-the rotation potential he’s possessed since departing UCLA with Tim Lincecum-like Pac-12 numbers and starter-kit stuff.
Bauer set a career high with 14 strikeouts against the A’s on Tuesday, and he has a career-high strikeout percentage (29.2%) and strikeout-walk rate differential (22.1 points) this season — nearly doubling his career rate (12.4-point K-BB%) by that measure.
Episode 745
What happens when a rebuild doesn’t work? That question, arrived at in stupid and circuitous fashion, leads to the bulk of this week’s conversation with managing editor Dave Cameron. Also: if it’s the practice of FanGraphs authors, generally speaking, to ask questions and attempt to answer them intelligently — if that’s the case, is it possible even to address the recent contretemps between Hunter Strickland and Bryce Harper? “Sort of,” is Dave Cameron’s answer summarized briefly.
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Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.
You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.
Audio after the jump. (Approximately 37 min play time.)
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Ben Lindbergh and Jeff Sullivan banter about mountain-climbing, Charlie Blackmon’s RBI barrage, starter-switching, the Reds’ still-lousy pitching, a bat-boning shoutout, and Ryan Raburn, then answer emails about Nolan Arenado, Ervin Santana, and Zack Cozart, Nelson Cruz clones, career longevity, gushing broadcasters, Albert Pujols and home runs, Cody Bellinger’s hot hitting, a Padres promotion, and more.
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There was a time, early last season, when an increasing number of people was jumping on the Phillies bandwagon. The team was rebuilding and overachieving, but there were early signs that the front office had assembled a dynamite pitching staff. While the Phillies were the rebuilding team getting the most positive attention, the Reds might’ve been the rebuilding team getting the most negative attention. Rebuilds are rebuilds, and losing teams lose, but the Reds didn’t seem to have anything exciting. The Phillies were a team with possible studs. The Reds were a team with just about nothing to speak of.
As 2016 rolled on, the Phillies dropped off, while the Reds improved. The Phillies had the National League’s worst second-half record. The Reds closed out by playing .500 baseball. And now it’s 2017, and the Phillies continue to struggle. They presently have the worst record out of anyone, while the Reds have been somewhere in the vicinity of average. Suddenly, it’s the Reds who have players to talk about. It’s the Reds who look a little bit promising. They just — well, the season’s been weird. At the same time, the Reds have been very good and very bad.
