NERD Game Scores for May 20, 2017

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric forefather Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game.

How are they calculated? Haphazardly, is how. An explanation of the components and formulae which produce these NERD scores is available here. All objections to the numbers here are probably justified, on account of how this entire endeavor is absurd.

***

Most Highly Rated Game
Arizona at San Diego | 22:10 ET
Ray (45.1 IP, 86 xFIP-) vs. Perdomo (34.1 IP, 70 xFIP-)
Among starters who’ve recorded 30 or more innings so far this season, San Diego’s Luis Perdomo has produced the very best ground-ball rate (70.5%). What else he’s done — and what represents a departure from his rookie campaign last year — is also to miss bats at an above-average rate. Pairing those two results with such frequency is rare. By way of illustrating how rare, please consider the following handcrafted chart, which identifies not only Perdomo but also other who’ve recorded a similar combo pacakge of outcomes so far this season.

Dallas Keuchel, Lance McCullers, and Alex Wood are objectively effective pitchers. Perdomo’s teammate Trevor Cahill hasn’t previously been so effective, but is now effective. Shall one conclude that Perdomo is likely to be effective, as well? One shall, probably.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Arizona or San Diego Radio.

Read the rest of this entry »


Effectively Wild Episode 1060: The Other Best-in-Baseball Debate

EWFI

Ben Lindbergh and Jeff Sullivan follow up on a few topics from their previous episode, including allowing first career hits, defining jams and, naturally, bat-boning, then banter about the Mets and Kenley Jansen and discuss why we’re seeing fewer fastballs and Clayton Kershaw vs. Chris Sale.

Read the rest of this entry »


Daniel Murphy Is a Value-Adding Teammate

PITTSBURGH – Daniel Murphy spends much of his offseason in his hometown of Jacksonville, Florida, where he hits in the batting cages of his alma mater, Jacksonville University. He works out there alongside his brother, who is also an alumnus of the program and who is also a local high-school coach. At the university, with his brother’s high-school team, Murphy will often talk about the craft of hitting with amateur players.

Murphy is, of course, one of a number of hitters who has changed his swing, improved his launch angle, and enjoyed significant success and improvement. He was an early adopter along with the usual names mentioned like Josh Donaldson and J.D. Martinez. But as Murphy talks to players at the grassroots level about swing concepts, he notices there are often curious looks when he discusses the idea of hitting fly-balls.

Read the rest of this entry »


NERD Game Scores for May 19, 2017

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric forefather Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game.

How are they calculated? Haphazardly, is how. An explanation of the components and formulae which produce these NERD scores is available here. All objections to the numbers here are probably justified, on account of how this entire endeavor is absurd.

***

Most Highly Rated Game
New York AL at Tampa Bay | 19:10 ET
Severino (42.0 IP, 68 xFIP-) vs. Ramirez (24.2 IP, 82 xFIP-)
Typically, when a pitcher records an ERA that’s a whole run higher than his xFIP, the result is a bad ERA. Luis Severino’s fielding-independent numbers have been so good this year, however, that despite allowing an extra run every nine innings, he’s still been better than average overall. Among his main virtues is arm speed: Severino has produced the highest average fastball velocity among qualifiers by nearly a full mph. Among not his virtues is allowing home runs. As for prudence, justice, etc., the author lacks sufficient knowledge of the situation to comment.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Tampa Bay Radio.

Read the rest of this entry »


The Blue Jays Have Reportedly Called Up Anthony Alford

The Toronto Blue Jays have reportedly called up 22-year-old outfielder Anthony Alford from Double-A. It’s an aggressive promotion, albeit likely a temporary one. The organization’s No. 2-rated prospect would be filling a void created by Kevin Pillar’s suspension and an injury to Darrell Ceciliani.

Regardless of the duration of his stay, Alford has a bright future with Canada’s team. The former Ole Miss football player augments his athleticism with outstanding baseball instincts. In 141 plate appearances for the New Hampshire Fisher Cats, Alford was slashing .325/.411/.455, with three home runs and nine stolen bases in 10 attempts.

Gil Kim, Toronto’s director of player development, gave a snapshot rundown on the newest Blue Jay.

“Alford has made huge strides,” Kim told me earlier today.” He was a two-sport athlete, and I believe 2015 is the first year he fully committed to baseball. When you combine his character, makeup, and natural ability, and factor in the inexperience, I’m comfortable saying he’ll make quicker advances than most. He’s coming into his own, just focusing on baseball. He had a 2016 season that saw him progressively improve. He carried that into the AFL, and he’s obviously doing a very good job now in Double-A.”

Kim proceeded to double down on his opinion of Alford’s character.

“I can’t speak more highly of character and makeup in our organization than Anthony Alford. He’s an impressive human being. He’s going to be a very successful major-league baseball player, and he’s already a successful human being. If you talk to our field coordinator, Eric Wedge, or Angus Mugford, our high-performance director, Ben Cherington, Ross Atkins, Mark Shapiro — as we strive to create the culture, and environment, of what a Toronto Blue Jays player is, Anthony Alford is off the charts. He’s impressive, man.”


Job Posting: Seattle Mariners Sports Science/Performance Analytics Intern

Position: Seattle Mariners Performance Analytics Internship

Location: Safeco Field, Seattle WA

Description:

We are seeking an individual with a passion for baseball and statistical analysis. The position will work directly alongside the analytics team with an emphasis on sports science. There will be ample opportunity to impact decision-making. Start and end dates are flexible with a preference towards immediate availability.

Responsibilities:

  • Statistical modeling and analysis of a variety of data sources including Statcast and proprietary data sets
  • Ad hoc queries and quantitative research
  • Various game-day duties and support for all departments within Baseball Operations

Qualifications:

  • A strong foundation in mathematics, statistics, computer science and/or engineering.
  • Demonstrated competency with either R or Python
  • Track record of original baseball research
  • Experience with pitch level data, hit vector data, sports science data
  • Experience with predictive modeling

While many candidates are no doubt capable, we desire a skillset that can impact, innovate and add value immediately.

Compensation:
This position is compensated.

To Apply:
To apply, please follow this link.


Which Team Has MLB’s Best Double-Play Combo?

These days, we’re blessed with a number of amazing young shortstops. Carlos Correa, Francisco Lindor, and Corey Seager, for example, are already among baseball’s top players. Manny Machado is a shortstop who just accidentally plays third base. All of them are younger than 25.

Second base isn’t as notable for its youth. Last year, however, second basemen recorded one of the top collective offensive lines at the position in the history of the game. Good job, second basemen.

So both positions are experiencing a bit of a renaissance at the moment. This led me to wonder which teams might be benefiting most from that renaissance. It’s rare that teams can keep a second baseman and shortstop together long enough to form a lasting and effective double-play combo. Right now, MLB has some pretty great ones. But which is the greatest — particularly, on the defensive side of thing? Let’s explore.

First, we want to know who has played together for awhile. Since the start of the 2015 season, 21 players have played at least 200 games as a shortstop, and 23 have done the same at second base. Cross-referencing them and weeding out the players who have played for multiple teams, we get the following list:

Teams with 2B & SS with 200+ G, 2015-2017
Team Second Baseman G Shortstop G
BAL Jonathan Schoop 281 J.J. Hardy 264
BOS Dustin Pedroia 279 Xander Bogaerts 346
CLE Jason Kipnis 297 Francisco Lindor 290
DET Ian Kinsler 335 Jose Iglesias 279
HOU Jose Altuve 338 Carlos Correa 288
MIA Dee Gordon 257 Adeiny Hechavarria 288
PHI Cesar Hernandez 270 Freddy Galvis 339
SF Joe Panik 257 Brandon Crawford 315
TEX Rougned Odor 300 Elvis Andrus 347

That’s a pretty good list. There are some tough omissions here. The most notable is the Angels, as Andrelton Simmons hasn’t been with them long enough to meet our bar here. Given Johnny Giavotella’s defensive contributions, however, we can guess that the combo here would be quite one-sided. Also excluded are teams with new double-play combos, like the Dodgers and Mariners. Not only are the Logan Forsythe-Corey Seager and Robinson CanoJean Segura combos new this season, but thanks to injuries they haven’t even played together much this season. Cano-Segura has only happened 22 times this season, and Forsythe-Seager only 10 times.

Read the rest of this entry »


Aaron Loup Has a Problem

On Wednesday, Aaron Loup threw this up-and-in fastball.

Read the rest of this entry »


Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 5/19/17

9:07
Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

9:07
Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to Friday baseball chat

9:07
Bork: Hello, friend!

9:07
Jeff Sullivan: Hello friend

9:08
Snowflake: Are Eric Sogard and Carson Cistulli the same person?

9:08
Jeff Sullivan: Eric Sogard went to Arizona State

Read the rest of this entry »


The Fringe Five: Baseball’s Most Compelling Fringe Prospects

Fringe Five Scoreboards: 2016 | 2015 | 2014 | 2013.

The Fringe Five is a weekly regular-season exercise, introduced a few years ago by the present author, wherein that same author utilizes regressed stats, scouting reports, and also his own fallible intuition to identify and/or continue monitoring the most compelling fringe prospects in all of baseball.

Central to the exercise, of course, is a definition of the word fringe, a term which possesses different connotations for different sorts of readers. For the purposes of the column this year, a fringe prospect (and therefore one eligible for inclusion among the Five) is any rookie-eligible player at High-A or above who (a) was omitted from the preseason prospect lists produced by Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, MLB.com, John Sickels*, and (most importantly) lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen and also who (b) is currently absent from a major-league roster. Players appearing on any updated list — such as the revised top 100 released last week by Baseball America — will also be excluded from eligibility.

*All 200 names!

In the final analysis, the basic idea is this: to recognize those prospects who are perhaps receiving less notoriety than their talents or performance might otherwise warrant.

*****

Thairo Estrada, 2B/SS, New York AL (Profile)
I selected Estrada as Cistulli’s Guy on Eric Longenhagen’s organizational list for the Yankees. Like a number of other players who received that same distinction on other clubs, Estrada’s profile entering the season was marked by above-average contact skills and the promise of defensive value. Unlike some of those other players, however, Estrada also featured youth relative to level. Consider: of the 100 players who recorded more than 136 at-bats in the Florida State League last season — a list which includes top-100 sorts like Corey Ray and Amed Rosario — only Toronto prospect Richard Urena was younger.

Now at Double-A in just his age-21 season, Estrada has somehow produced even stronger numbers than last year. He’s recorded a strikeout rate of just 10.1% after posting a 13.1% mark at High-A last year. He’s also made two-thirds of his starts at shortstop after having largely moved off the position in 2015 and -16. He’s been a net positive there, according to Clay Davenport’s fielding-runs methodology.

Here’s footage of Estrada hitting one home run — specifically, in this case, during spring training:

Read the rest of this entry »