The Adjustments that Made the Hall of Famers

The truth about a Hall of Fame career is that there’s no single magic moment that makes it happen. There’s no way you can put together the sort of resume that ends in Cooperstown unless you make many changes along the way. Baseball is that demanding.

When it’s all over, though, there’s time for looking back and for giving thanks. Because in order to make all those adjustments, the players had to receive advice from truth-peddling coaches and players along the way. For every adjustment, there was a trusted source that helped at just the right time.

So, along with the help of Alyson Footer of MLB.com, Bill Ladson of MLB.com, and others, I asked our newest Hall of Fame trio about their path to the big leagues.

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Jeff Bagwell

On Power: “I think my hitting coach, Rudy Jaramillo and I – you know, when I was in the minor leagues and all that kind of stuff, I used to hit a lot of balls with back, excuse me, topspin. And then I kind of learned how to change my hands a little bit and get a little bit of backspin and all that kind of stuff, and that carried the ball…

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The Marlins and the Future of Starting Rotations

Last week, the Marlins rounded out their starting rotation by acquiring Dan Straily from the Reds. Straily will join Edinson Volquez, Wei-Yin Chen, Tom Koehler, and Adam Conley in likely making up the Marlins five-man rotation to start the year, and let’s be honest, that’s a pretty uninspiring group. Our projections currently rate Miami’s group of starters as the 27th best in baseball, just ahead of the Reds, Twins, and Padres, none of whom are expected to compete in 2017. But what the Marlins lack in quality, they may make up for in quantity, and that could make their pitching experiment worth watching this year.

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Who’s Going to Close for the Nats?

That’s a heck of a title for a FanGraphs article in 2017, isn’t it? Modern sabermetric discourse doesn’t give much credit to the traditional ninth-inning closer’s role. It focuses, rather, on deploying the right man at the right time, about Andrew Miller parachuting into the game at Terry Francona’s leisure to throw multiple innings of comedy. Closers? Who needs a set closer?

Well, most teams do, if for no other reason than a lot of players and managers aren’t quite ready to do away with the closer’s role just yet. One of those teams would be the Washington Nationals, who don’t need a closer as much as they need at least one more good relief pitcher. Mark Melancon did an admirable job finishing out games for the club following a trade-deadline deal that sent him to Washington, but he’s now employed by the Giants. The Nats haven’t replaced him just yet. In fact, they haven’t added any relievers to the big-league roster. Mike Rizzo has acquired some spare arms in Austin Adams and Jimmy Cordero, but they’ll likely be opening the season in Triple-A. One has to imagine that the current incarnation of the bullpen won’t be the one in place on Opening Day, right?

They’ve certainly made an effort to change the relief corps so far. They were in on Aroldis Chapman and Kenley Jansen before the former returned to New York and the latter went back to Los Angeles. Free agency is a fickle thing. So here we are, at the tail end of January, and the Nats have yet to make a significant upgrade to their bullpen. With a team that’s looking to win a World Series before their last two years of Bryce Harper are up, that’s something that needs to be addressed.

But who? Who’s going to close for the Nationals?

Shawn Kelley

He’s the man who currently has the job. Kelley’s been a fine reliever for years now, and in theory, there’s nothing wrong with him being the guy who closes out games. He’s as good a candidate as anyone left at this stage. However, it also wouldn’t be bad if Kelley and his excellent strikeout tendencies were free to be used in the eighth or earlier. Of course, if Kelley does end up closing, it could behoove Rizzo to sign…

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Travis Sawchik FanGraphs Chat – 1/23/17

12:01
Travis Sawchik: We need to talk

12:01
Travis Sawchik: So let’s get started …

12:01
Bork: Would the MLBPA be wise to fight for a payroll floor more than anything?

12:03
Travis Sawchik: An article I researched related to this very subject was just published on the Site so please check it out….But, yeah, I’m surprised the MLBPA has not fought for a floor given where the owners’ share of revenues has gone, given there is a tax on payroll spending.

12:03
Travis Sawchik: While it’s not a perfect comparison, if MLB had an NBA-style soft cap and floor, there would have been 19 MLB teams under the floor in 2015

12:04
Erik: What happens first, an MLB expansion or an MLB relocation?

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Baseball’s Embattled Middle Class

Every spring, MLBPA chief Tony Clark travels around Florida and Arizona, visiting with all 30 major-league teams. He travels to learn of concerns and ideas from major-league players, and to communicate matters of importance. Clark also makes himself available to beat writers following major-league clubs.

In the spring of 2015, as collective bargaining talks loomed, I was in Bradenton, Florida, covering the Pirates. When Clark arrived at Pirates camp, I asked him if what players once considered a nonstarter, a salary cap — one that would guarantee a 50-50 revenue split — had become more palatable.

I asked him if any player that spring had expressed concern regarding the owners’ share of revenues, which has continued to increase over the last two decades. The trend has gained some attention in recent years at multiple media outlets.

“You’re the first person to ask,” Clark said.

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2017 ZiPS Projections – Pittsburgh Pirates

After having typically appeared in the very famous pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past few years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Pittsburgh Pirates. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Arizona / Atlanta / Baltimore / Boston / Chicago AL / Chicago NL / Cleveland / Detroit / Houston / Kansas City / Los Angeles AL / Los Angeles NL / Milwaukee / Minnesota / New York AL / Miami / St. Louis / San Diego / San Francisco / Seattle / Tampa Bay / Toronto / Washington.

Batters
The projected starting lineup for the 2017 edition of the Pirates bears a strong resemblance to the one with which the club entered last season. The only substantive difference, actually, occurs at first base, where some combination of Josh Bell (612 PA, 1.6 zWAR) and David Freese (469, 1.9) appear likely to receive the bulk of plate appearances. On the whole, the result is an above-average squad. A group of eight average players would produce something like 16 wins; this group, meanwhile, is forecast for about 21.

Despite a poor 2016 campaign, Andrew McCutchen (641, 4.1) receives the club’s top wins projection for this next season. Much of that is due to positive regression on the offensive front, ZiPS calling for a 128 OPS+ after last season’s 103 mark. The defensive prognosis is less enthusiastic: McCutchen is forecast by Dan Szymborski’s computer for -10 runs in center field.

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Braves, D-backs in Litigation with Cities Over Stadium Leases

Currently, more than 75% of major-league teams — 23 out of 30, to be exact — play their home games in stadiums publicly owned by a local government entity. Each of these relationships between the franchise and its host municipality is, in turn, governed by a contract specifying the terms under which the government has leased its stadium to the MLB team.

As one might expect, disagreements between the franchises and their local communities occasionally arise under these lease agreements. Recently, two such disputes — one involving the Atlanta Braves and the other involving the Arizona Diamondbacks — progressed to the point that the team or local municipality opted to file a lawsuit against the other in state court.

S.M.P. Community Fund v. Atlanta Braves

In late December, the Atlanta Braves were sued in local state court by the S.M.P. Community Fund, an entity formed by the City of Atlanta to distribute funds generated by the Braves’ former stadium — Turner Field — throughout the local community. Under the terms of the Braves’ lease agreement, the team was obligated to contribute 8.25% of the parking revenue it generated at Turner Field, along with 25% of the net revenue generated from any special events held at the stadium, to the Fund. The Fund would then use these proceeds to benefit the neighborhoods immediately surrounding Turner Field.

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FanGraphs and Effectively Wild Are Going to EclipseFest

We’ve acquired 50 more tickets after selling out of our initial allotment. Sales are back open!

On Monday, August 21st, the first total solar eclipse to hit the United States in 26 years will make its way across the country, and the path of totality will take it right through the town of Keizer, Oregon, home to the Salem-Keizer Volcanoes, the Northwest League affiliate of the San Francisco Giants. To celebrate the event, the Volcanoes are hosting EclipseFest, a weekend celebration of astronomy and baseball.

On the actual day of the Eclipse, they have scheduled a morning game (9:35 am first pitch) to allow for what they are calling the Total Eclipse of the Park; the game will halt during the event, and those in attendance will view the eclipse together. Included among those in attendance will be Effectively Wild hosts Ben Lindbergh and Jeff Sullivan; I will also be joining the festivities, and we want to invite FanGraphs readers and Effectively Wild listeners to join us for this unique convergence of baseball and astronomy.

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Yordano Ventura and Andy Marte Have Died

Andy Marte died in a car accident in his native Dominican Republic. He was 33 years old. Yordano Ventura died in a separate car accident in his native Dominican Republic. He was 25 years old. Those are the facts, and those are the ages, but the ages are presented as if they mean anything. Any lost life is a life lost too early, and there exists no formula to calculate a level of sadness. The baseball community is in mourning, as it has been too many times.

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Sunday Notes: JBJ, Bridich, Wallace on Britton, more

Like many of us, Jackie Bradley, Jr. has been watching and enjoying the NFL playoffs. I asked the Boston outfielder for his thoughts on the contests, as well as some of the primary protagonists.

After acknowledging that there were some exciting games, Bradley made note of Pittsburgh wide receiver Antonio Brown’s surreptitiously live-broadcasting a video as head coach Mike Tomlin addressed the team. He doesn’t condone what happened.

“There’s always been an unwritten rule about that,” Bradley told me. “What goes on in the locker room stays in the locker room. Nobody from outside of the locker room should know what goes on inside the locker room. It’s like a family in there — it’s a tight-knit group — and it should stay that way. You wouldn’t want anything broadcast out of there, no matter what it might be.”

As for the quarterbacks playing later today — Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Ben Roethlisberger, and Matt Ryan — Bradley demurred on which he feels would have been most successful had he pursued a baseball career. He did opine that the foursome wouldn’t necessarily have worked off a mound. Read the rest of this entry »