FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 4/4/17

2:08
Paul Swydan:

What is tonight’s best matchup?

NYY (Sabathia) vs. TB (Odorizzi) (2.6% | 6 votes)
 
COL (Anderson) vs. MIL (Davies) (1.3% | 3 votes)
 
CLE (Carrasco) vs. TEX (Perez) (5.3% | 12 votes)
 
SEA (Iwakuma) vs. HOU (McCullers) (13.4% | 30 votes)
 
CHC (Arrieta) vs. STL (Wainwright) (47.0% | 105 votes)
 
SF (Cueto) vs. ARI (Corbin) (7.6% | 17 votes)
 
LAA (Shoemaker) vs. OAK (Manaea) (18.8% | 42 votes)
 
SD (Richard) vs. LAD (Maeda) (3.5% | 8 votes)
 

Total Votes: 223
2:12
Paul Swydan:

Which player who hit 2 homers on Opening Day are you most bullish about this season?

Khris Davis (20.9% | 48 votes)
 
Rougned Odor (27.9% | 64 votes)
 
Yasmani Grandal (34.9% | 80 votes)
 
I am bullish on all three! (7.8% | 18 votes)
 
I am bearish on all three. (4.3% | 10 votes)
 
I can’t decide! (3.9% | 9 votes)
 

Total Votes: 229
2:16
Paul Swydan:

Which “Archer” character would you most want to spend time with?

Malory Archer (2.3% | 5 votes)
 
Sterling Archer (14.5% | 31 votes)
 
Cyril Figgis (1.4% | 3 votes)
 
Ray Gillette (2.8% | 6 votes)
 
Lana Kane (9.8% | 21 votes)
 
Dr. Krieger (7.5% | 16 votes)
 
Pam Poovey (7.0% | 15 votes)
 
Cheryl Tunt (18.3% | 39 votes)
 
One of the other characters (say in comments) (2.3% | 5 votes)
 
I don’t know; I don’t watch good TV shows. (33.8% | 72 votes)
 

Total Votes: 213
9:00
Paul Swydan: Hi everybody!

9:01
Jeff Zimmerman: Hi

9:01
B: Need to fill last two spots on my rotation, who do you pick from the following? Can play now, or hold and see (deep bench):

Musgrove, Bundy, Norris, Cotton, Gsellman

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I’m Not Done Selling You on Kendall Graveman

As the season approached, I found myself intrigued by the Oakland starting rotation. That being said, among the starters, I was least interested in Kendall Graveman. Andrew Triggs? I’m all over that. Jharel Cotton? You better believe it. Kendall Graveman? Ehh. He didn’t do much for me. That was my mistake.

This is today’s second Graveman post on FanGraphs. I wrote the first one a few hours ago, wherein I discussed that Graveman seems to be experiencing a velocity spike, on the heels of a 2016 velocity spike. That fascinates the hell out of me, but something still felt incomplete. So here I’d like to revisit what Graveman has going on, because I’ve found a fun point of comparison. Why care about Kendall Graveman’s velocity? Because you could say his sinker has leveled up.

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Byron Buxton’s Tough First Day

During our marathon Opening Day chat at FanGraphs on Monday — you can revisit all 27,000 words here — I was tasked with following the 4 p.m. ET games. That slate of games featured an unfair fight between Clayton Kershaw and the Padres, the entrance of Zach Britton into a tie game against the Blue Jays, and the Twins against the Royals. While I flipped between games trying to maximize the use of the one available television in my living room, I tried to take in most of Byron Buxton’s day at the plate.

As you’re probably aware, Buxton was once the consensus No. 1 prospect in the game. He, unfairly, drew Mike Trout comps. While he’s certainly not anywhere near Trout the batter, Buxton is one of the premier athletes in the game. He made the first five-star catch of the season Monday as MLB.com documented both with video and Statcast data.

But Buxton will never fully unlock his potential, his considerable potential, until he cuts down on the swing and miss in his game.

Even during his excellent September, when he offered hope of a turnaround, a .287/.357/.653 slash line, and nine home runs over the final 29 games of the season — exhibiting burgeoning power to go with his plus-plus speed — Buxton still struck out in 33.6% of his plate appearances. He finished with a 35.6% strikeout rate for the year, a mark that was largely responsible — along with a healthy dose of infield pop ups — for his unsightly .225/.284/.430 slash line and 86 wRC+. His strikeout rate increased four points from his brief exposure to major-league pitching in 2015. And he even struck out 28% of the time during his demotion to Triple-A last season, covering 209 plate appearances.

Judging from my weekly chats here, Buxton is of some interest to many this year given a strong finish to 2016 that coincided with swing adjustments, including a return to the leg kick he used in high school but which was originally phased out by the Twins. He struck out in 20% of his at-bats this spring. While perhaps not ultimately significant, it was preferable to striking out in more than a third of his plate appearances.

This time of year always carries a small-sample disclaimer. It’s April. We don’t want to make too much of performance. But I was curious to see if Buxton, on Day One, would seem different, improved — as far as his approach goes — from the Buxton of 2015 and 2016. I was in search of compelling anecdotal evidence.

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Job Posting: Boston Red Sox Baseball Data Architect

Position: Boston Red Sox Baseball Data Architect

Location: Boston
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About Clayton Kershaw’s Changeups

There was plenty about Clayton Kershaw’s Opening Day start that was predictable. He sat between 92 and 93 on that straight, riding fastball. He showed command of the pitch and didn’t walk anyone. He threw a fastball on his lone 3-1 count. The box score says he threw 27 sliders and got five whiffs — an excellent rate. His 15 curves got two whiffs and two outs on five swings. So a lot of Monday’s start was just vintage Kershaw. But that doesn’t mean he didn’t show us something a bit different.

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Kendall Graveman and the Rare Double Spike

There was a post I intended to write sometime last month. The post was going to be about Kendall Graveman, and his future, and it was going to be based around the fact that Graveman went and had his best spring training to date. What’s more, there were some unconfirmed reports floating around that Graveman was occasionally pushing his sinker up into the high 90s. Ultimately, I sat on the idea, because Graveman didn’t throw any spring-training pitches in front of instrumentation that spits out useful data. He had a good March, and that was all.

On account of Sonny Gray’s injury, Graveman just got the nod to start for the A’s against the Angels on Monday’s opening day. Here is the Graveman post I was thinking about. It took one inning for me to know what I was going to do.

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Bobby Dalbec and the Two-Way Challenge

A few weeks ago Zach Buchanan of The Cincinnati Enquirer wrote a column titled “Can Michael Lorenzen be a two-way player?” It’s an intriguing question, and not an entirely far-fetched idea. The 25-year-old Reds right-hander was both a pitcher and a center fielder at Cal State Fullerton. Per Buchanan’s article, he could “kind of see it come to fruition” in the future.

For Christian Bethancourt, the future is now. As Eno Sarris shared yesterday in his look at two-way possibilities, the Padres are planning to use the strong-armed backstop both behind the plate and out of the bullpen.

Don’t count Bobby Dalbec among those looking to follow in Bethancourt’s footsteps. His resume suggests he could — Dalbec dominated on the mound in last year’s College World Series — but Boston drafted him as a third baseman, which is where he wants to stay. Our own Eric Longenhagen feels he has a future there, as Dalbec came in at No. 5 on that Red Sox’ top-prospect list.

When I talked to him this spring, the 21-year-old University of Arizona product told me he doesn’t particularly like pitching, and that he did it primarily because the Wildcats wanted him to play both ways. No longer having to perform double duty “took a big weight off [his] shoulders.”

He cited preparation as the biggest challenge.

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About All These Velocity Spikes

Yesterday, I wrote about Madison Bumgarner looking like he might have been throwing harder than usual on Sunday. Then Jeff chimed in, noting that most everyone in that game had increased velocity, and so perhaps there was something going on with Arizona’s radar calibration. In the comments of those pieces, several people noted that the ESPN broadcasters had mentioned that MLB was changing the way velocity was tracked this year, and thus we should expect higher readings in general this year than we’ve seen in the past.

Now that we’ve had the second “Opening Day” of the season, we now have data from 14 parks instead of just three, which gives us a chance to look at whether Arizona was an abnormality on Sunday, and whether the broadcasters were correct that we’re going to be seeing higher velocity numbers this year than in the past. And while we’re still dealing with small samples, if there was a systematic measurement change, it should show up pretty quickly. So let’s take a look at some numbers.

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Will Otani Change the Game?

TAMPA, Fla. — Even if Shohei Otani is not the next Babe Ruth, even if baseball has to settle for welcoming the next Madison Bumgarner some time in the not-too-distant future, some team will be quite happy.

You’re probably familiar with Otani. In case you’re unfamiliar with the Japanese star, however, please take a moment to familiarize yourself with the resume.

As a 21-year-old last season, he went 10-4 with a 1.86 ERA over 20 starts in the NPB. He struck out 174 and walked 45 in 140 innings. Oh, he also OPS’d 1.004 with 22 home runs over 323 at-bats in 104 games. He was named the league’s best pitcher and best DH.

The following exhibits from 2016 are visual evidence of this player’s existence.

Let’s start with the fastball that sits in the mid- to upper 90s and that has touched 102 mph…

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Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat, 4/4

12:02
Eric A Longenhagen: Mornin’. Shorter chat today since I was on for three hours last night during our opening day chat marathon.

12:03
12:04
Eric A Longenhagen: One last thing before I start, there A LOT of questions in the chat asking when Prospect X is going to be in the big leagues. Blanket answer: I don’t know. Too many variables impact that sort of thing that have zero to do with the player’s performance.

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