Ben and Sam banter about pitch limits, an MLB.com headline, and news about Rich Hill and Shohei Otani, then discuss the implications of several of the new CBA’s most noteworthy changes.
Podcast (effectively-wild): Play in new window | Download
Subscribe: RSS
Episode 703
Jeff Sullivan is a senior editor at FanGraphs. In this edition of program, he discusses both the delicate art of tricking the public into reading a post about Jarrod Dyson and an introvert’s experience at the Winter Meetings.
This episode of the program either is or isn’t sponsored by SeatGeek, which site removes both the work and also the hassle from the process of shopping for tickets.
Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.
You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.
Audio after the jump. (Approximately 1 hr 14 min play time.)
Podcast: Play in new window | Download
Subscribe: RSS
Ben and Sam banter about the possibly unprecedented complete lack of luddite teams, then discuss the Royals as sellers, the reliever market, and Braves trade rumors.
Podcast (effectively-wild): Play in new window | Download
Subscribe: RSS
Over the last few years, the New York Yankees have placed a focus on getting younger. The attempts to make that happen have been mostly successful. The data back it up. Consider: since 2014, the average age of the club’s batters (weighted by plate appearance) has decreased from 32.5 to 31.2 to 30.0.
At first glance, the Yankees’ decision on Sunday to sign Matt Holliday to a one-year, $13 million contract might seem to run contrary to these efforts. Adding a 37-year-old to play designated hitter doesn’t immediately seem like the sort of move that would continue to facilitate the Yankees’ youth movement. That said, this is the same club that allocated a majority of the team’s plate appearances at DH last season to 40-year-old Alex Rodriguez and 39-year-old Carlos Beltran. In a crowded market for designated-hitter types, the Yankees acted relatively early and might have gotten one of the better deals for the upcoming season.
Not long ago, I was thinking about the teams that might elect to rebuild next. The only really obvious candidate was and is the White Sox, who could begin the process at any moment. After them, I thought about the Diamondbacks, who might be a half-year away. The Orioles might be approaching their own cliff. The Tigers have already expressed a desire to get younger and cheaper. And so on. A team I didn’t think about enough was the Royals. In my head, I still associate the Royals with having so recently won a championship, but now that’s behind them. What’s ahead of them is a future that seems like it’s going to be very tricky to navigate.
Now isn’t the time for the Royals to start blowing it up. The Royals shouldn’t dismantle, not this week, not this winter. I don’t think that would really help them avoid the coming reality. But from the looks of things, 2017 is going to be it. Already, the Royals achieved the greatest success. The cost of that pursuit will begin to take its toll.
When your favorite team signs a new player, you don’t want to hear about the downside. You don’t want to hear about other players whom your team could have signed, or how your player will age, or if the deal constitutes an overpay. You want to hear about how awesome that player is and how much better he’ll make your team. I’m here for you. I’ll tell you those things about Mark Melancon, who has reportedly signed with the San Francisco Giants for what is likely to be something like four years and $62 million. And then… then comes some cold water. Just warning you.
Over the weekend, the DH market started to clarify itself. The Astros signed Carlos Beltran, giving him $16 million for one year. The Yankees signed Matt Holliday, giving him $13 million for one year. And in 48 hours, two teams that looked like potential landing spots for Edwin Encarnacion opted to go with short-term commitments for older players, rather than trying to win the bidding war for the best hitter on the market.
So, this morning, the question of the day here at the Winter Meetings is where does Encarnacion go from here.
| 11:58 |
: Hail to whatever you found in the sunlight that surrounds you this Monday morning: The Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat.
|
| 11:58 |
: Braves found the price of Gray “too high.” After Sale is off the board somewhere else, do they bite the bullet?
|
| 11:58 |
: I suspect no. I don’t think Atlanta’s feeling is that the rebuild is *quite* as far along as they express to the public.
|
| 11:58 |
: A’s should have traded Gray last winter. Not really a fan of Oakland’s front office these days.
|
| 11:58 |
: Has EE priced himself out of a contract? It seems like all his possible suitors are bowing out one by one with cheaper alternatives.
|
| 11:59 |
: It’s possible that he’s hurt his negotiating position, but there are still teams that are going to want him.
|
After having typically appeared in the very famous pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past few years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Arizona Diamondbacks. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.
Other Projections: Chicago NL / San Diego / Toronto / Washington.
Batters
Not unlike a glass that’s simultaneously half full and half empty, the Diamondbacks — on the position-player side of things, at least — serve as an effective litmus test for optimism. There are real strengths in the projected starting lineup — strengths like Paul Goldschmidt (630 PA, 4.8 zWAR), Jake Lamb (517, 2.4), and A.J. Pollock (445, 3.5). There are also real weaknesses, too, in the form of Brandon Drury (581, 0.0), Yasmany Tomas (524, 0.5), and whoever’s tasked with playing catcher.
The optimist regards this as a club that can be easily upgraded: because the flaws are so obvious, they can be dramatically improved with only a modest investment of resources. The pessimist, on the other hand, is uncomfortable with relying so heavily on the ability of just a few players. If one of them were to get injured (as Pollock did in 2016), the club would suffer unduly (as the D-backs did in 2016).
Steve Pearce has been very good in two of the last three seasons. The Blue Jays are betting he can be good in the next two, as well, as they have reportedly signed him to a two-year, $12 million deal that likely spells the end of Edwin Encarnacion’s time in Toronto.
This should be a very positive deal for the Blue Jays. Pearce has been prone to injury throughout his career — he he didn’t amass more than 200 plate appearances in a season until 2014 (his eighth in the league) and he dealt with forearm, elbow, hamstring and calf injuries last year — but the Blue Jays have paid him accordingly. Generally speaking, you would expect to see a guy coming off a 136 wRC+ to get more than $6 million per year, but that’s exactly what Pearce is getting. If he produces, the Blue Jays will be getting a steal. If he ends up hurt, as his medical history suggests is likely to happen, the Blue Jays are still OK because they haven’t committed much money to him.
