Neil Allen will return as Minnesota Twins pitching coach in 2017. Expect to see more Tampa Bay Rays influence as a result.

Allen spent eight years coaching in the Rays system before coming to the Twin Cities prior to the 2015 season. He’s already incorporated a changeup philosophy since his arrival. The next steps — based on a conversation I had with him this summer — will likely include an increased emphasis on fastball command at the minor-league level.

Allen shared with me his thoughts on pitcher development, including how certain philosophies were implemented in his old organization. Given the success the Rays have had bringing quality arms to the big leagues, it should come as no surprise that he’d like to see many of them embraced within the Twins system.

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Allen on process and reports in Tampa Bay: “The philosophies come from the higher-ups. The general manager, the manager, and the pitching coordinator would get together and start the program. It would be explained to the coaches and we’d take it to the field. It was up to us — it became our responsibility — and if we didn’t see improvement in individuals, well, we had to answer to that. Why isn’t this guy getting better?

“After every game, there would be reports to fill out. We would report on consistency, on strikes, on location, on arm action. They would get those reports in Tampa Bay every night. They could see the amounts and percentages, as well as our comments on things like the depth of the breaking balls, the movement and arm speed on the changeups, the location of the fastballs. I don’t know exactly what they would do with the data, but every pitch that was thrown in the minor-league system that night was recorded.”

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The GM Meetings are in progress, and another offseason of frantic player movement seems about to begin in earnest. In the meantime, let’s continue our offseason series of granular BIP-based player performance evaluation.

Earlier this week, we used exit speed and launch angle data to analyze how ERA-qualifying AL starting pitchers “should have” performed in 2016. Today, we take a similar look at qualifying NL starters.

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The next good hitter to come from South Korea almost came to the majors a year ago. Maybe “almost” is taking it too far — ultimately, nobody placed a bid. But the hitter was posted, then, so the opportunity was present. The hitter is now a free agent. The opportunity is present once more.

You’ve heard what people have been saying about this year’s free-agent market. It’s miserable, especially toward the top, and the other day Keith Law said it’s one of the worst classes he can remember. One player can’t make the difference, short of that one player being, say, Mike Trout or Shohei Otani. This is going to be the winter of trade rumors. But the free-agent market doesn’t only include minor leaguers and major leaguers with American track records. You shouldn’t overlook the 29-year-old Jae-Gyun Hwang, because he just made himself substantially better, and he’s there for the bidding.

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Ben and Sam review the results from Jerry Crasnick’s 2015 MLB executive survey and discuss the latest installment in his long-running survey series.

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It’s been about a week since the Chicago Cubs won the World Series. A few days less than that since the parade. And while there will always be time for remembering this season and this team’s accomplishments, it’s okay to look forward, as well. After the Cubs won last week, Dave Cameron wrote that the Cubs have a chance at creating a dynasty, not unlike the New York Yankees two decades ago. That possibility certainly exists — and just about all the evidence we have regarding the Cubs right now suggests that they’re going to be a good baseball team for the foreseeable future. There are no guarantees.

Two days ago, Jeff Sullivan turned the FanGraphs Depth Charts numbers, based on Steamer projections, into a way-too-early projection for next season. The Cubs are already situated in the mid-90s for wins — and that’s even after accounting for the loss of starting center fielder Dexter Fowler. When we talk about the future of the Cubs, we focus on the position players, as well we should. The position players are the Cubs strength — and for the most part, they’re young and cheap, allowing the Cubs to spend money elsewhere to fill holes.

So even if the Cubs do nothing, they head to next season with a strong core both on offense and defense. Kris Bryant isn’t likely to be as good as he was this past year, but the projections factor that in. Anthony Rizzo is projected for another good year. Javier Baez and Addison Russell, both of whom retain considerable upside, are projected for similar years. Willson Contreras is expected to continue his promising transition to the big leagues.

There are certainly going to be concerns about Jason Heyward at the plate — and, to a lesser degree, in the field, if he has to play center in a full-time capacity. He’s not going to cost the team runs, but replacing an outfield alignment of Bryant/Soler/Zobrist (in left field), Fowler (in center), and Heyward (right) with Schwarber, Heyward, and Zobrist, respectively, is going to downgrade the defense a bit. The projections assume that 36-year-old Ben Zobrist will also decline just a bit from his solid 2016 campaign.

But even if Zobrist starts aging poorly, Heyward fails to rebound, and Schwarber is unable to return to previous form, the club is still in good shape on the position-player side of things. That said, there’s no guarantee for success. Even if the Cubs hit well again and defend well again, a return to the playoffs isn’t a given.

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Below is an analysis of the prospects in the Los Angeles Dodgers farm system. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from my own observations. The KATOH statistical projections, probable-outcome graphs, and (further down) Mahalanobis comps have been provided by Chris Mitchell. For more information on thes 20-80 scouting scale by which all of my prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this. -Eric Longenhagen

The KATOH projection system uses minor-league data and Baseball America prospect rankings to forecast future performance in the major leagues. For each player, KATOH produces a WAR forecast for his first six years in the major leagues. There are drawbacks to scouting the stat line, so take these projections with a grain of salt. Due to their purely objective nature, the projections here can be useful in identifying prospects who might be overlooked or overrated. Due to sample-size concerns, only players with at least 200 minor-league plate appearances or batters faced last season have received projections. -Chris Mitchell

Other Lists
NL West (ARI, COL, LAD, SD, SF)
AL Central (CHW, CLE, DET, KC, MIN)
NL Central (CHC, CIN, PIT, MIL, StL)
NL East (ATL, MIA, NYM, PHI, WAS)
AL East (BAL, BOS, NYY, TB, TOR)

60 FV Prospects

Relevant/Interesting Metrics
Recorded 34.6% strikeout and 6.9% walk rate at Low-A.

Scouting Report
The ease with which Yadier Alvarez delivers 100 mph fastballs is as unsettling as it is beautiful. Triple-digit fastballs are becoming more common but they usually involve significant visible effort. Alvarez throws 95-plus and looks like he’s settling down to take a nap. He’ll touch 101 and generally sits 96-99 and 94-97 later in starts. His fastball command is below average, as Alvarez has issues maintaining his delivery’s timing and struggles to get on top of his fastball consistently. But the grace in the delivery and Alvarez’s overall athleticism point toward significant development in this area and there are signs that it’s already begun to come. Alvarez cut his walk rate in half after moving from the Arizona League to the Midwest League while his strikeout rate held firm. Scouts who saw him late in the year complimented his ability to throw strikes, something he wasn’t doing consistently as late as June.

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The biggest reliever contract in baseball history was handed to Jonathan Papelbon in 2012 when the right-hander received four years and $50 million from the Phillies. The biggest yearly salary ever recorded by a reliever remains Mariano Rivera’s $15 million figure from both 2011 and 2012. This year, both of those records will surely fall.

After all, we’ve just concluded a postseason in which starters pitched the fewest innings per start in playoff history. And a reliever won the American League Championship Series MVP award. And relievers, in general, receive much more per win than players at any other position. Against that backdrop, this offseason features two elite free agents in Aroldis Chapman and Kenley Jansen — only a year after Darren O’Day was the best reliever available in November.

It’s a combination of forces that makes you wonder how high the price might go for their services. But before we start predicting nine-digit contracts for either of these closers, we also have to remember that a deal like that would represent a doubling of the previous high.

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I know that I’m in the middle of another polling project. It’s not going to be an offseason full of polling projects. But this is a different idea, and it’s a little time-sensitive. So here we are!

I wanted to get this out and going before the offseason moves are really underway. We have already seen some minor transactions, but, there’s nothing I can do about that. Your assignment here is simple: For as many teams as you feel comfortable with, predict a 2017 win total. I do not mean predict a 2017 win total, based on how rosters are constructed today. I want you to predict a 2017 win total, based on what you think the rosters are going to look like. Think the White Sox, for example, are going to tear it all down? Vote accordingly. Think they’ll instead try to compete one more time? Vote accordingly! Think of this as a blended offseason prediction and regular-season prediction. Obviously we can’t predict all the moves teams are going to make, but it’s mostly easy to see what teams want to do. Let that drive you.

Thank you in advance for your participation. I’m running this for two reasons. One, it’ll just be fun to analyze in the short-term. But, two, it’ll also be fun to analyze at the end of spring training next March, when I ask you to predict the standings again. Then we’ll get to see who had the craziest offseasons, and who did what they were expected to do. For so many reasons, I can’t wait until spring. Thanks again, and have fun speculating!

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