Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat – 8/31/16

12:04
Dave Cameron: Happy Wednesday, everyone. I just flew back from SF yesterday, after a fun Pitch Talks event on Monday night. Seriously, these shows are great, and you really should make a point of going if one comes anywhere near you.

12:05
Dave Cameron: Watching Jonah Keri get made crushed by Jon Miller was a lifetime highlight.

12:05
Dave Cameron: But with a month left in the season, we’ve got plenty of stuff to talk about, so let’s spend the next hour talking baseball.

12:06
wilson: Shelby Miller is back up today, do you think theres a shred of hope for him going forward?

12:07
Dave Cameron: Sure, there’s no reason to think that a guy who was a quality pitcher for several years is now just utterly useless. It seems like his season just snowballed on him, with his mechanics getting out of whack, and I wouldn’t be at all surprised if Miller turned out to be a useful pitcher again. Remember, Roy Halladay had one of the worst seasons in baseball history, got sent back to A-ball to redo his mechanics, and came back as a Hall of Famer starter.

12:07
Guest: Hendricks peripherals are pretty much identical to last year? Has he actually gotten better?

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NERD Game Scores for Wednesday, August 31, 2016

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric nobleman Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

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Most Highly Rated Game
Toronto at Baltimore | 19:05 ET
Sanchez (156.1 IP, 82 xFIP-) vs. Gallardo (91.2 IP, 130 xFIP-)
This seems like the sort of television for which one might be required to make an appointment: an unexpected and legitimate Cy Young candidate starts for a club that possesses the slimmest of leads over not one, but two, division rivals. One of those two division rivals is the opponent. Starring Aaron Sanchez and all the rules governing baseball.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Toronto Radio or Baltimore Television.

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Matt Moore’s New Pitch Addresses Old Concerns

In his last start, the Giants’ Matt Moore did something he’d never done before. Not no-hit a team through eight innings: he’d thrown an actual no-hitter before, in Double-A in 2011, on 98 pitches on his brother’s birthday. He’d thrown a one-hitter before, too — albeit over seven innings instead of 9.2, and earlier in his pro career.

What he did this Aug. 25 against the Dodgers that he’d never done before was throw a cutter 29 times. Only twice had he thrown the pitch even 10 times, but there he was going to the well, again and again, on his way to an oh-no instead of a no-no.

Weirdly, he didn’t get a single whiff on the pitch. But it doesn’t seem like the swinging strike is the point to the pitcher. Nearly everything else is.

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Job Posting: Washington Nationals Baseball Research & Development Analyst

Position: Washington Nationals Baseball Research & Development Analyst

Location: Washington DC

Description:
The Washington Nationals are seeking a data analyst to join the organization’s Baseball Research and Development team. This role will focus on using data science to support Baseball Operations in player evaluation, roster construction and in-game tactics. This includes using machine learning techniques and predictive modeling to draw insights from our in-house baseball datasets. The analyst will work closely with the existing R&D team, including other analysts and developers, to design and build decision-support systems and tools for use throughout the organization.

Responsibilities:

  • Statistical modeling of baseball data.
  • Build automated solutions to import, clean, and prepare baseball datasets for downstream analyses.
  • Create informative visualizations of our baseball datasets.
  • Assist in the maintenance of our data warehouse.
  • Build information systems to support Baseball Operation’s efforts to improve player health and performance.
  • Review of public research in both baseball and data science.

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Chalk Up Another Brewers Buy-Low Success

Some parts of the Brewers’ rebuild have been relatively easy. I mean, all trade negotiations are complex, but it was pretty obvious when it was time for the Brewers to trade Carlos Gomez, and they were inevitably going to get a strong prospect return. And, it was pretty obvious when it was time for the Brewers to trade Jonathan Lucroy, and they were inevitably going to get a strong prospect return. The Brewers did well with those moves, and now the Gomez trade looks even better, but just about any front office would’ve been able to help the organizational future there.

The Brewers have done well elsewhere, too. With some of the more creative, lower-profile moves, the Brewers have helped to prop themselves up. Very quietly, they’ve gotten good production out of Jonathan Villar. I wrote not too long ago about why I’m a fan of Keon Broxton. The Brewers were smart to be in on Junior Guerra. They were able to turn Gerardo Parra into Zach Davies. A lot of the buy-low transactions have worked out, and there’s another name to add to the list. If you knew Hernan Perez before, it wasn’t for anything good.

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Ryan Schimpf and the Great Old Rookie

It was roughly a month ago that I wrote the post that Ryan Schimpf made necessary. Schimpf is 28 years old, and 28-year-old rookies tend not to merit a lot of attention. There have obviously been some great, older players to produce fantastic debut seasons — like Ichiro Suzuki, for example, or Jackie Robinson. This post, however, isn’t concerned with those players who were kept from the game because they played professionally elsewhere or were unable to play due to systemic racism. Rather, the present post attempts to remedy the lack of awareness for players in a situation like Schimpf’s — older players who make the most of their opportunity — both this year and in those that preceded it.

While Schimpf is certainly the best of the lot this season, he’s not alone among older guys in their rookie seasons this year. The chart below shows the rookies who are at least 27 years old and have recorded at least 100 plate appearances (and who didn’t sign as professional free agents before the season e.g. Byung-ho Park).

Old Rookies in 2016
Name Team Age PA HR AVG OBP SLG wRC+ Off Def WAR
Ryan Schimpf Padres 28 226 16 .242 .367 .613 155 17.8 -4.2 2.1
Jarrett Parker Giants 27 136 5 .254 .375 .430 123 3.5 -3.2 0.5
Jeremy Hazelbaker Cardinals 28 197 11 .250 .309 .506 111 2.2 -4.5 0.4
Whit Merrifield Royals 27 220 2 .271 .305 .381 81 -2.5 6.0 1.1
Shawn O’Malley Mariners 28 193 2 .238 .318 .343 85 -3.5 0.2 0.3
Brett Eibner – – – 27 127 5 .209 .270 .391 72 -4.1 3.9 0.4
Tyler Holt Reds 27 170 0 .213 .292 .260 50 -9.9 -2.6 -0.7

Jeremy Hazelbaker took a path fairly similar to Schimpf, moving from the Red Sox to the Dodgers to the Cardinals, who finally gave him a bit of a chance this season. Parker was drafted by the Giants, has hit in virtually every stop and debuted last year for San Francisco — and is back with the team this season after spending much of the season in the minors. Merrifield progressed slowly with the Royals, eventually making Omar Infante expendable, but ended up back in the minors last month with Kansas City giving Raul Mondesi a shot. Shawn O’Malley was drafted 10 years ago and received only brief exposure at the major-league level in both 2014 and 2015 before appearing this season. Eibner was traded for Billy Burns earlier this year, and the A’s are making a bet that Eibner’s success in the minors can translate to the bigs if given the chance. Tyler Holt is a speedy, low-power player who has gotten to the majors in each of the past three years.

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Jake Arrieta Has Developed a Problem

Any Cubs fan could tell you Jake Arrieta just doesn’t seem quite right. This has been the case for a number of weeks, or months, and we’ve touched on it before. It’s funny to think about the hand-wringing over a pitcher sitting on a sub-3 ERA. But, he really has gotten meaningfully worse, and he’s the staff ace of a World Series favorite. Cubs fans don’t have a whole lot of negatives right now. Arrieta might be turning into one, and he had a clunker against Pittsburgh just Monday.

Last week, I wrote about the curious disappearance of Arrieta’s unbelievable slider. It hasn’t killed him or anything, with the fastball picking up the slack, but that’s not something Arrieta would’ve wished for. The slider going away is a symptom of something. I can present to you now another symptom of something. And it’s related to the slider’s deterioration — Arrieta’s developing a platoon split. He’s having some trouble with lefties, and, it turns out there are lefties everywhere.

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KATOH on the Cape: Projecting Cape Cod League Hitters

The college baseball season wrapped up in June when Coastal Carolina defeated Arizona in the College World Series, but most of the top college players’ seasons don’t end when their team’s season does. Players with dreams of going pro often spend the summer months playing in collegiate summer leagues to gain extra reps and exposure. Teams in these leagues are composed entirely of college players, and — unlike at the college level — hitters use wooden bats instead of metal ones.

The most well known of these leagues is the Cape Cod Baseball League, which aptly takes place along Cape Cod in Massachusetts. The Cape attracts most of the best college players, and many of today’s stars spent their college summers playing there. Josh Donaldson, Evan Longoria, Buster Posey and Mark Teixeira are just a few notable alumni.

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KC’s Chris Young Versus Three Boston Batters

Chris Young faced three batters in the sixth inning of last Friday’s game at Fenway Park. Pitching in relief of starter Ian Kennedy, the Royals right-hander came on with one out, a runner on second base, and Kansas City leading the hometown Red Sox 5-1. He allowed a run-scoring single to Dustin Pedroia, then retired Xander Bogaerts and David Ortiz to end the inning.

Two days later, Young talked about the at-bats, the role of luck, and how his pitching approach is influenced by a home run he gave up in 2005.

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Young on facing Pedroia: “A lot of variables go into it, but I’m big on looking at the reports. With Pedroia’s numbers off fastballs, and what he does against sliders, in the back of my mind I was thinking, ‘Alright, I probably need to get him out with a slider.’ The fastball he covers pretty well. If I do throw a fastball, it’s got to be in a specific location.

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August Fagerstrom FanGraphs Chat — 8/30/16

11:55
august fagerstrom: Yo! Chat will start shortly after the top of the hour

11:55
august fagerstrom: In the meantime, listen to this new Bon Iver single that I have not been able to quit replaying:

11:55
august fagerstrom: I’m not even a particularly huge Bon Iver fan, but I can’t get enough of the new sound he’s displayed on the three singles. Insanely hyped for this new record. Love the new direction

12:09
august fagerstrom: ok!

12:09
august fagerstrom: let’s begin

12:09
Brett W: Your chat might be more efficient and effective if you lead with the curve.

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