In 2010, 20-year-old Giancarlo Stanton slugged 22 homers in 396 plate appearances. Only 11 20-year-olds had ever hit more home runs in a season, and only Bob Horner in 1978 hit more homers in fewer plate appearances. At 21, he hit 34 homers, fourth among 21-year olds, and nobody hit more in fewer than Stanton’s 601 plate appearances. His 37 homers the next year were eighth among all 22-year-olds, and nobody had more in fewer than Stanton’s 501 plate appearances.

At 23, Stanton had “only” 24 homers in 504 plate appearances, and at 24, he hit 37 without playing a full season. Last year, he hit 27 homers in 317 plate appearances and nobody at any age has ever hit as many home runs with fewer opportunities. If there is a theme, it’s that Stanton hits a ton of home runs. If there is a secondary theme, it is that he doesn’t play full seasons. The first one is great. The second one could be cause for concern.

This is cherry-picking the data a bit, but there have been 89 player seasons where a player hit at least 22 home runs and had 505 plate appearances or fewer before or during a player’s age-26 season, per Baseball-Reference Play Index. Of those 89 seasons, 74 happened once, including 11 in strike years. Five players have two such seasons, although Mike Piazza’s happened during the strike and lockout. The only player with more than two is Giancarlo Stanton, and with him out for the season, 2016 will make the fifth time it has happened in his career. Extend the age requirement up to 30, and still nobody has more than three such seasons. Get rid of the age requirement all together and the only other player with five such seasons is Jose Canseco, and two of those seasons were shortened by a strike.

Stanton’s injuries have generally varied enough that there does not appear to be anything chronic in nature. In review:

• 2012: missed less than a month due to arthroscopic knee surgery on his right knee.
• 2013: missed a little over a month with a strained right hamstring.
• 2014: missed last few weeks of season after getting hit in the face with a pitch. No DL stint due to expanded rosters.
• 2015: missed the rest of the season beginning in late June after a fractured bone in his hand due to a hard swing.
• 2016: missed the rest of the season beginning in mid-August due to a left groin strain.

We have four separate injuries, none overly serious, and after the first three, he came back at or near the same performance level that he exhibited previously. Despite all those injuries and missed time, his 26.7 WAR is still in the top-100 of all time through age-26, and his 206 homers are 16th through the same age. Read the rest of this entry »

On Sunday, and for the second time this season, Mookie Betts launched three home runs in a game. He now has 26 home runs on the season; for comparison, Giancarlo Stanton has 25, Chris Davis has 24, and Mike Trout has 23. Mookie Betts has a higher isolated slugging percentage this season than Miguel Cabrera, Ryan Braun, or Carlos Gonzalez. This is not what anyone expected.

I’ve long been one of Betts biggest supporters, but it’d be dishonest to pretend that we saw this coming. Even back in 2014, when I wrote the “Don’t Trade Mookie Betts” post extolling his value, I included the following paragraph.

Due primarily to his size (5-9) and the potential limits that puts on his power, Betts has not generally been viewed as a franchise cornerstone type of prospect the way Xander Bogaerts was as he ascended the ranks. And while it might seem unfair to make generalities about Betts’ future based on his height, there is merit to the idea that he probably won’t become a big-time power hitter in the big leagues.

In that piece, I noted that Betts’ combination of a low swing rate and a high contact rate put him in the company of mostly low-power slap hitters, but noted that it looked like he had enough doubles-power to become a Matt Carpenter or Ben Zobrist type of hitter, and those guys were worth holding onto. I liked Betts a lot, but I liked him because of the overall game, not because I thought he was going to turn into a slugger.

Even the following spring, when Betts went bananas in the Grapefruit League, his teammates sought to praise him by comparing him to Andrew McCutchen. And those comparisons were met with pushback, even by myself, as I continued to not see that kind of power development as Betts’ likely path to success. But now, a year and a half later, the McCutchen comparison looks wrong not because Betts didn’t develop McCutchen-level power, but because he’s already surpassed McCutchen-level power, and has become a very different player than he looked like coming up through the minors.

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Carson Fulmer has an enigmatic identity. As Eric Longenhagen wrote last month, the 22-year-old right-hander “was perhaps the 2015 draft’s most polarizing prospect,” thanks in part to an electric arsenal and a delivery “paced like a hummingbird’s heart beat.”

He got to the big leagues in a hurry. Fourteen months after being taken 8th overall out of Vanderbilt University, Fulmer has made eight appearances out of the White Sox bullpen. That’s another part of the intrigue. Fulmer fashions himself a starter, as do many, but not all, talent evaluators. Perhaps apropos, his early results have been a mixed bag.

Fulmer talked about his game when the White Sox visited Detroit earlier this month.

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Fulmer on self-identity and learning: “Every pitcher can tell you that he knows himself, for the most part. At the same time, you’re constantly trying to learn more about yourself. I’m learning every single day. That’s through the adversities I’ve faced, and even from playing catch. Read the rest of this entry »

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Just six months ago, Raisel Iglesias was everyone’s favorite starting pitcher breakout candidate for 2016. The 26-year-old Cuban, signed for seven years and $27 million by the Cincinnati Reds in 2014, was coming off an impressive rookie campaign in which he struck out more than a quarter of all batters faced as a starter while exhibiting above-average command and a knack for getting ground balls, and he only got better as the year went on. Iglesias, alongside Anthony DeSclafani and John Lamb, was perhaps the most enticing pick of a trio of young Reds starters who have all provided us a painful reminder of the fickle and painful nature of choosing pitching as a profession.

DeSclafani spent the first two months of the season on the disabled list with a strained oblique. Lamb’s experienced decline across the board. And Iglesias hasn’t made a start since April, and last week earned his first career save.

Iglesias’ status update informs us of two important developments. The first being: everyone’s favorite starting pitcher breakout candidate for 2016 has been a reliever for the last two months. That’s disappointing, because fans want their exciting young starting pitchers to be start. The bullpen is rightly viewed as a downgrade. The fact that Iglesias earned a save, though, at least suggests that he’s been effective out of the bullpen, and effective might be an understatement. In 28 relief innings this season, Iglesias has allowed just two earned runs — good for a Britton-like 0.64 ERA — while striking out nearly 30% of the batters he’s faced.

The Reds made the switch in an effort to keep Iglesias healthy by limiting his workload, and also to provide stability to a bullpen that’s still among the worst the expansion era has ever seen. Thus far, Iglesias has thrived. He’s thrived, and beyond that, he’s expressed satisfaction with his new role. In early July, Iglesias told Cincinnati reporters through a translator that he “thinks [he doesn’t] want to go back and be a starter again” and that he wants to “start thinking about continuing [his] career as a closer.” Now, that time is here, and so the Reds have an interesting decision to make.
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It feels like ages ago, but back when he was a high-level prospect, George Springer was absolutely fascinating. In Springer, the Astros had a phenomenal athlete with almost unparalleled bat speed. But Springer’s game also came with a lot of swinging and missing, whiffs to such a degree that there were real questions about how he’d be able to handle the bigs. You know how this has gone: Springer has established himself as a quality outfielder, after having dramatically improved his contact skills. Getting better at contact is not an easy thing to do, but Springer made himself an outlier, and now he’s a star.

Springer’s big gain came between 2014 and 2015, and this year he’s actually taken another step forward, in terms of getting the bat to the ball. As a rookie, Springer posted baseball’s very lowest contact rate. As a rookie himself, Joc Pederson posted baseball’s sixth-lowest contact rate. There’s long been concern about Pederson’s own ability to make consistent contact. His swings and misses could get exploited, but Springer demonstrated improvement could be possible. And now Pederson is following in Springer’s footsteps.

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Teoscar Hernandez has always possessed an enticing combination of power and speed. His primary flaw, however, has been his inability to make contact. In 2014, he belted 21 homers and stole 33 bags, but struck out 28% of the time. Last year, he posted 17 homers and 33 steals with a 24% strikeout rate. The end result was a .219/.275/.362 batting line. More often than not, hitters who strike out that frequently don’t carry their success over to the big leagues, and it wasn’t at all clear that Hernandez was ever going to make enough contact to make it work.

But a funny thing started happening this year: Hernandez has seemingly learned how to avoid the strikeout. He opened the year at the Double-A level, where he hit .305/.384/.437 with a 17% strikeout rate. Following a promotion to Triple-A, he slashed .313/.365/.500 with a 16% strikeout clip. Despite the added contact, he still managed 10 homers in just over 100 games — plus one more in Houston on Friday. Read the rest of this entry »

Episode 675
Lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen is the guest on this edition of the pod, during which he shares some notes from the Area Code Games on the top high-school prospects (including RHP Hunter Greene and OF Jo Adell and) of the 2017 draft; supplies a sort of prospect retrospective of Toronto second baseman Devon Travis, the former 13th-round selection who’s already produced two wins this season in limited time; and reluctantly answers a question about Tim Tebow’s future in baseball.

This episode of the program either is or isn’t sponsored by SeatGeek, which site removes both the work and also the hassle from the process of shopping for tickets.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 1 hr 11 min play time.)

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