FanGraphs Baseball

It’s no secret that position players are the big prize in this winter’s relatively weak free-agent class. Available top-tier starting pitching is essentially non-existent, but there are a few hitters who will be expected to be a big boon to their new teams. Even then, though, it’s not as if the ranks of available hitters are dripping with star-level talent. I keep going back to free-agent rankings ordered according to 2017 projection systems – here’s our free-agent depth chart and here are MLB.com’s projections – and grappling with the name atop the projections: Justin Turner. Is it actually possible that a 32-year-old infielder coming off his first major-league season as a full-fledged starter is the game’s best available free agent?

The most popular name to cite as this year’s “best” free agent is Yoenis Cespedes. He appears atop Dave Cameron’s top-50 free-agent rankings and all indications are that he’s the most likely player to lock-down a nine-figure contract before next year. Edwin Encarnacion is also available, and all he’s done is hit more homers over the last five seasons (193) than every player in the game except Chris Davis (197). But then there’s Justin Turner. As Cameron said when he listed Turner as the best potential free-agent bargain this winter: “Turner looks like this year’s Ben Zobrist: a good player who will get underpriced because he doesn’t feel as good as he actually is.”

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Below is an analysis of the prospects in the Cleveland Indians farm system. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from my own observations. The KATOH statistical projections, probable-outcome graphs, and (further down) Mahalanobis comps have been provided by Chris Mitchell. For more information on thes 20-80 scouting scale by which all of my prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this. -Eric Longenhagen

The KATOH projection system uses minor-league data and Baseball America prospect rankings to forecast future performance in the major leagues. For each player, KATOH produces a WAR forecast for his first six years in the major leagues. There are drawbacks to scouting the stat line, so take these projections with a grain of salt. Due to their purely objective nature, the projections here can be useful in identifying prospects who might be overlooked or overrated. Due to sample-size concerns, only players with at least 200 minor-league plate appearances or batters faced last season have received projections. -Chris Mitchell

Other Lists
NL West (ARI, COL, LAD, SD, SF)
AL Central (CHW, CLE, DET, KC, MIN)
NL Central (CHC, CIN, PIT, MIL, StL)
NL East (ATL, MIA, NYM, PHI, WAS)
AL East (BAL, BOS, NYY, TB, TOR)

55 FV Prospects

Relevant/Interesting Metrics
Slashed .333/.379/.500 as a left-hander in 2016, .359/.390/.542 as right-hander.

Scouting Report
Arguably the best catching prospect in all of baseball, Mejia’s prodigious arm strength and bat-to-ball ability give him the raw physical material to impact the game in a variety of ways. A switch-hitter, Mejia has fantastic bat control from both sides of the plate and tracks pitches well. He has plus bat speed and, except for the occasional rash of overswinging, generates it with little effort. As a right-handed hitter, Mejia hits to all fields. He’s more pull-heavy as a left-handed hitter but is better at creating airborne contact from that side. Mejia’s strikeout rate has fallen as he’s risen up the minor-league ladder. I have a future 70 on the hit tool.

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Ben and Sam banter about a baseball TV trope and a Roger Angell passage, then discuss how they would have asked and answered interview questions for the Twins and Diamondbacks GM jobs and what they thought of the Mariners’ and Diamondbacks’ Jean Segura-Taijuan Walker trade and the Twins’ Jason Castro signing.

The Angels presently project to have baseball’s worst bullpen. Now, they know it’s a potential weakness, and they’re going to make further moves to try to shore things up, but some time ago the front office did re-sign Andrew Bailey for a year and $1 million. It’s terribly unexciting, and this isn’t even new. Again: old transaction! But I thought about this when I read a new Mike Petriello article about Statcast stars. Here we are.

Seth Lugo got a mention in the article. From a Statcast perspective, Lugo is fascinating, because his curveball generated easily the league’s highest average spin rate. We don’t yet know quite what that means, but it’s not dull. Now, what about fastball spin rate? Justin Verlander had the highest average among starters. Carl Edwards Jr. thrived with his high-spin fastball out of the bullpen. And yet, while Edwards ranked second in average fastball spin, Andrew Bailey ranked first. His fastball averaged 2,674 RPM. The league-average four-seamer came in at 2,264 RPM.

Now, Bailey wound up with an ERA over 5. That’s a problem, and that feels like it ought to be more meaningful than some spin-rate metric. Bailey hasn’t had a positive WAR as a big-league reliever since 2011. He’ll turn 33 years old next May. When the Angels first re-signed Bailey for 2017, I came to this very screen, and I almost wrote an InstaGraphs post, but I stopped myself. I’m not picking Bailey as some ultra-sleeper. But there’s just enough for me to be intrigued. The same goes for the Angels, who plucked Bailey from the Phillies late in the summer. After making the move, Bailey’s cutter gained three miles per hour. His curveball gained a tick. And, with the Angels, in a small sample, Bailey threw 70% strikes. For the season overall, he threw two-thirds of his pitches for strikes. That’s what he did at his peak between 2009 – 2011.

Bailey’s top velocity is down a mile or two from earlier in his career, but now it seems like he could have the strikes back, and the fastball spin should make it hard to square up if hitters have to stay concerned about the other pitches. The increased velocity should help that, and even last season, Bailey generated one of the higher foul-ball rates, which is a sort of compromise between a ball in play and a swinging strike. Foul balls for pitchers are more good than bad. Bailey showed more than he had in a while, and his best version was a quality closer. This package might give the Angels a decent setup guy.

Mostly, I just want for more people to know about Bailey’s spin. Spin can go only so far — consult Bailey’s recent ERAs. But Bailey just got to blending spin and strikes, and his stuff played up in September. From a projection standpoint, Bailey isn’t very good. From a more scouty perspective, there could well be something left in the tank. The best starting point is always an interesting fastball, and Bailey’s is more interesting than most.

Shortly before Thanksgiving, I wrote an article about how Chris Sale had been hurt last season by lousy receivers. That was an interesting observation from the data, but it wasn’t the only interesting observation from the data. According to Baseball Prospectus, Sale lost the second-most runs from his pitch-framers. Brandon Finnegan, however, pitched to the worst strike zone, his framers costing him an estimated 7.8 runs. Meanwhile, from the same source, Madison Bumgarner pitched to the best strike zone, his framers helping him by an estimated 11.0 runs. That’s a 19-run difference from catchers alone.

Maybe you don’t believe the spread was really that big. It’s easy to believe there was some spread — Bumgarner pitched almost exclusively to Buster Posey, while Finnegan pitched to Tucker Barnhart and Ramon Cabrera. One should also be wary of putting everything on the catchers. Pitchers with better command are easier to receive than pitchers with worse command, and Bumgarner throws with greater accuracy than Finnegan does. So, in part, the zones were the pitchers’ fault. But one thing we know for sure is that, in the end, Bumgarner’s strike zone was more generous. Arguably the most generous. So here is how the Bumgarner and Finnegan called strike zones compare:

Pretty interesting! Here is an alternate view of the same information. Note this is also from the catcher’s perspective. This shows called-strike rates out of all called pitches:

Both pitchers are southpaws. Bumgarner got the far better zone high. He got the far better zone arm-side. He got the far better zone low. Glove-side, it’s about equal, if not in favor of Finnegan. That’s of some note — Finnegan wasn’t losing strikes everywhere. It seems like he frequently tried to target that glove-side edge, but he’d often miss, and his catchers were probably worse at receiving missed locations. So it goes. It’s another example of a point to be debated. Bumgarner got the way more generous strike zone than Finnegan did. Some of this is because Bumgarner hit his spots better than Finnegan did. That reflects well on Bumgarner’s talent! But with an automated strike zone, the gap in performance between the pitchers would’ve been narrowed. Bumgarner’s zone would’ve been worse, and Finnegan’s zone would’ve been better. You either like the way things are, or you don’t. They’ve been this way forever, even if we’ve only recently taken to measuring it.

An estimated gap of 18.8 runs. This compares the two extremes, but there was about the same difference in WAR last year between Max Scherzer and Carlos Martinez. Individual ball and strike calls seldom make a big difference in the moment, but, holy hell, can the differences ever add up.

This post is being republished after appearing at FanGraphs earlier this month — as it seems particularly relevant given the lack of a new CBA ahead of the December 1 expiration of the current one.

In two weeks time, on December 1st, the existing collective bargaining agreement (CBA) between Major League Baseball and the Major League Baseball Players Association is set to expire. While the two sides have been working for the better part of a year on negotiating a new agreement, to date they have not yet been able to come to terms on a new CBA.

Based on existing media reports, it appears that the hold-up over the new agreement centers around two primary issues: raising the luxury-tax threshold and creating an international draft. Both topics were expected to be among the most important — and thus potentially contentious — issues discussed during the CBA negotiations. So the fact that the parties have not yet reached an agreement on either point is not particularly surprising.

Still, with only two weeks left until the old CBA expires, some are beginning to speculate about whether a potential work stoppage could be looming on the horizon. That, in turn, raises questions regarding the potential legal ramifications of the two sides failing to agree to a new CBA before December 1st.

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The Mariners, who are operating with a pretty short-term competitive window, added Jean Segura right before Thanksgiving. Segura has been driving the headlines, and it’s no mystery why. He finished last year with a 5.0 WAR, and, for the sake of reference, that tied him with Joey Votto. It put him in front of Xander Bogaerts. To go a little more traditional, Segura led the National League in hits by 10, ahead of Corey Seager. It was a breakthrough season for the 26-year-old, and his ability to play shortstop plugs what had been a glaring hole. There’s no question that Segura fits the profile of a headliner.

Many who’ve written about the Mariners’ side have written about Segura. Many of the quotes from Jerry Dipoto have been about Segura. But, at risk of sounding like Dave, I have to wonder — was Segura really the Mariners’ best get? Or will we eventually reflect on this as being the move that brought Seattle Mitch Haniger?

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The Thanksgiving holiday now over, our examination of MLB hitters’ contact quality rolls on, utilizing granular exit-speed and launch-angle data. We’ve already reviewed first basemen and DHs; next up is an interesting group of AL second basemen.

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At some point this week, we’re probably going to get a new Collective Bargaining Agreement. The current one expires on Thursday, and given MLB’s current revenue situation, neither side can be all that incentivized to screw things up right now. Both the owners and the players are getting very rich off of baseball’s ability to sell their television rights, and to risk that kind of cash cow over something like the qualifying offer or an international draft would be the definition of cutting off your nose to spite your face. There may be hurdles yet to clear, but they’re very likely going to be cleared.

A seemingly settled issue in negotiations is the coming expansion of the active roster. According to Ken Rosenthal, owners have agreed to expand the April-August roster limit to 26 players in exchange for a reduction in the September limit, which will come down from 40 to 28 or 29. This will deliver a more consistent brand of baseball throughout the year, rather than having the final month played under very different rules than the rest of the season.

The concern is that expanding the roster will just give Major League managers the green light to carry yet another relief pitcher. We’re already seeing more pitchers used per game than ever before, and with another available bullpen arm, there would be even more opportunities to pull the starter early. And while there are plenty of valid strategic reasons to prefer relievers over tiring starters, from an aesthetic standpoint, the game’s march towards more pitchers throwing fewer pitches probably isn’t something baseball should be trying to accelerate.

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