The Kenta Maeda Guide to Soft Contact

The scouting report on Kenta Maeda never suggested he was overpowering. He was never expected to post extreme strikeout totals, and while his above-average 24% strikeout rate is somewhat surprising, it’s only part of the reason the 28-year-old Japanese rookie has been one of the 20 or 25 best pitchers in baseball this season.

The other part is the part that makes more sense for Maeda and less sense to the rest of us. It’s still difficult to suss out what exactly goes into the skill of generating soft contact, or how much of it is a skill at all, but thus far, Maeda’s been among the best at it. Given how little we’ve seen him work, Maeda’s a relatively mysterious pitcher. Soft contact is a mysterious skill. That’s two mysteries, and playing detective is fun.

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NERD Game Scores: Surprise Meeting of Corey Kluber Society

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric nobleman Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

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Surprise Meeting of the Corey Kluber Society
The Purpose of This Post
The purpose of this post is to announce an impromptu meeting — in this case, at 7:10pm ET tonight (Tuesday) — of the Corey Kluber Society.

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More Words Than You’d Expect on the Cubs’ 10th-Round Pick

A few days ago, I shared KATOH’s thoughts on the college players who were drafted (and not drafted) in this year’s amateur draft. There were hundreds of them. Many of the players with very good projections went in the first round, including Nick Senzel, A.J. Puk and Cody Sedlock. But the player with the very best KATOH projection fell all the way to the 10th round. The end of the 10th round. That player is Dakota Mekkes, whom the Cubs drafted with the 314th-overall pick out of Michigan State.

Mekkes was straight up filthy this past season. Pitching in the Big 10, Mekkes struck out a remarkable 96 batters in just 57 innings without surrendering a single home run. The catch is that he pitched exclusively in relief — though he wasn’t used like a typical reliever, and actually pitched more like a starter in some cases. Mekkes averaged over two innings per appearance in relief, and frequently threw many more than that. Most notably, he tossed six shutout innings in an extra-inning game against Maryland. Unlike most college relievers, he wasn’t a one-inning guy, which helps explain why KATOH likes him more than most relievers.

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Now It’s the Phillies Offense That’s Laughably Bad

We have an understanding, right? Neither the Phillies nor Braves were supposed to be good, and neither the Phillies nor Braves are actually good. Winning now was never part of the plan, so in a sense it kind of doesn’t matter what happens on the field. Not on the team level, because the teams were always going to lose. So there’s no point in being too critical, or in laughing too much. Criticism should be reserved for failures. Failing requires the intent to succeed.

I don’t want to sit around and talk about the Phillies and Braves every day. It’s not particularly interesting that they’re bad. That being said, I do at least want to take the chance to even things out. Toward the end of April, I wrote about how the Braves offense was a total disaster. And it was a total disaster, as you remember. They hit two homers on opening day, then they hit one homer over their next 19 games. They didn’t get their team slugging percentage into the .300s until the middle of May. It was inconceivable how poorly the Braves were hitting, and it’s not like they’ve since turned into an offensive juggernaut. But as you look at the numbers today, there has been a shift. The Braves offense ranks low. The Phillies offense is worse.

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Effectively Wild Episode 908: Remember the Rays?

Ben and Sam banter about Santos Saldivar and discuss Tim Lincecum’s comeback, two player demotions, and the decline of the Tampa Bay Rays.


It’s Time for the Cardinals to Shake Up Their Bullpen

Sunday morning, I was talking with Craig Edwards and some others in the lobby of a New York hotel. Craig, who as you probably know runs the Cardinals’ site Viva El Birdos in addition to his work for FanGraphs, lamented Trevor Rosenthal’s “shaky” performance this season. After checking in on Rosenthal and the Cardinals’ bullpen, it is even more clear than it already was that Craig is a kind man, for I would use other words to describe Rosenthal’s performance. It might be time for manager Mike Matheny to make a change at the top of the Cardinals’ bullpen.

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James Shields Has Been Messed Up for a While

One of the realities of the earlier part of the season is that we notice things we might not otherwise notice. A hot streak or a slump to begin the year stands out more than a hot streak or a slump in the middle of August, because at the beginning, everything starts fresh. This is one of the reasons why people tend to overreact to early results. The numbers make it look like they’re the only results, as new seasons stand out from prior ones. As others like to remind, players streak all the time, and we typically just accept it if we even notice at all.

So if it’s easier to notice a streak at the beginning, it follows that it’s harder to notice a streak in the middle. Which means when a streak in the middle does get noticed, that means something. We’ve all noticed James Shields‘ streak. James Shields’ streak is one of the very ugliest starting-pitching streaks on recent record. It is, very genuinely, just about unbelievable.

This could be a whole post of fun facts. The numbers are that extraordinary. I’ll try to limit myself, because the fun facts aren’t the point. But, all right: over his last four starts, Shields has allowed a total of 32 runs. Jake Arrieta has allowed a total of 32 runs over his last 30 starts, covering more than 200 innings. Shields, since his last game with San Diego, has yielded a 1.441 OPS. Barry Bonds, in 2004 — when he walked more than 200 times — finished with a 1.411 OPS. James Shields has strung together four starts of turning the opposition into prime Barry Bonds. This is James Shields, of the James Shields Trade.

It’s been impossible not to notice. Even the worst pitchers don’t bottom out like this, and this has become a serious problem for a team that’s trying to make the playoffs. Shields, of course, isn’t this bad — position players pitching aren’t this bad — but maybe the most troubling thing is this isn’t just a four-start slump. It’s been a horrible, unimaginable four starts, sure, but Shields hasn’t been quite right for some time.

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Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat 6/20/2016

 

2:01
Eric A Longenhagen: Well, Happy AZL Opening Day to you too.

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2016 Broadcaster Rankings: Final Results

Recently, within this site’s electronic pages, the author facilitated a crowdsourcing effort with a view towards reproducing the broadcaster rankings which appeared here roughly four years ago. More recently, that same author published the updated results for television broadcasts here and for radio here.

The service which the author has failed to render, however, is to present all the results from that endeavor in one easily digestible form. The purpose of this post is to right that vile wrong.

Below, the reader will find two tables. The first contains the complete rankings for the league’s 62 distinct television and radio broadcast teams. The second features only the highest-ranked broadcast for each major-league club.

As in every other case, it’s important to stress here that the results of this exercise aren’t intended to represent the objective quality or skill of the relevant announcers, but rather to provide a clue as to which broadcast teams are likely to appeal most (or least) to the readers of this site. Note, furthermore, that the overall ratings which appear below are not mere averages of the charisma and analysis scores which accompany them, but a distinct category for which respondents submitted scores independently.

Those dozen caveats having been stated explicitly — and many more implied — here are the results of the 2016 broadcaster rankings.

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Josh Donaldson’s Other Amazing Skill

Josh Donaldson is a remarkable player. You probably already knew that, given that he’s the reigning AL MVP. But when you think of Josh Donaldson, you probably think of him crushing a baseball, as he’s turned himself into one of the best hitters in baseball. Or maybe you think of him making an amazing play in the field, as he’s also one of the best defensive third baseman in the game.

But here’s a thing that maybe you did not know: Josh Donaldson is also one of the best base stealers in baseball. He’s not a high-volume base stealer — he’s never stolen more than eight bases in a season — so we’re not exactly talking about Billy Hamilton here, but no one in baseball picks their spots to run better than Donaldson.

On the year, Donaldson has stolen five bases in five attempts. Last year, he stole six bases in six attempts. In 2014, he stole eight bases in eight attempts. You have to go back to June 3rd of 2013 to find the last time Josh Donaldson was thrown out trying to steal a base. Since then, he’s successfully stolen 22 bases in a row.

Over the last three years, no other player with double-digit steal attempts has been even close to as efficient in thievery. Here are the highest success rates among players with at least 20 stolen base attempts over the last three calendar years.

Best SB%, Last Three Years
Player Steals SB Attempt SB%
Josh Donaldson 22 22 100%
Shane Victorino 23 24 96%
James Jones 28 30 93%
Michael Brantley 51 55 93%
Craig Gentry 37 41 90%
Brock Holt 23 26 88%
Drew Stubbs 42 48 88%
Chris Owings 34 39 87%
Jayson Werth 18 21 86%
Leury Garcia 18 21 86%

If we used a lower threshold for SB attempts, Jackie Bradley Jr would show up here, as he’s 18 for 18 in stolen base attempts in his career. But we didn’t, so, sorry JBJ.

Shane Victorino is out of baseball because he can’t really hit anymore. James Jones and Leury Garcia are in Triple-A because they could never hit. Craig Gentry, Brock Holt, Drew Stubbs, and Chris Owings are part-time players who are around in part because of their speed, so this is a specific skill that helps keep them in the league. The only everyday players on this list are Donaldson, Brantley, and the almost-as-surprising Jayson Werth. And thanks to his perfect success rate, Donaldson stands above the rest.

This doesn’t make him the best base stealer in baseball, of course. That probably goes to a guy like Jarrod Dyson, who has managed to steal 101 bases at an 85% success rate over the last three years despite everyone knowing he’s running when he’s inserted as a pinch runner. Speed guys like Dyson don’t get to take advantage of the element of surprise in the way a guy like Donaldson does, and if Donaldson ran more often, he’d certainly get thrown out at a much higher rate than guys who run at high frequency.

But since June 3rd of 2013, Donaldson has used the element of surprise perfectly. It’s been more than three years since the last time he got nailed on the bases, and being able to take extra is one of the small things that adds up to help make the Blue Jays third baseman truly one of the very best all-around players in the game.