FanGraphs Baseball

Earlier recaps: Episode 1 / Episode 2 / Episode 3 / Episode 4.

Welcome to our recap of the fifth episode of “Pitch”, entitled “Alfonzo Guzman-Chavez”. As always, there are spoilers, so proceed with caution.

It’s 48 hours until the MLB trade deadline. The Padres have just won their sixth game in a row. Changes are likely coming, as the front office prepares for a postseason chase.

The Padres clubhouse is tense, with players obsessively checking for trade news and rumors. Mike (Mark-Paul Gosselaar) assures Ginny (Kylie Bunbury) that she isn’t going anywhere. Blip (Mo McRae) feels Mike needn’t worry, either, since he has a no-trade clause. Blip is concerned for himself, because one article mentioned him as a potential target for the Cubs.

General manager Oscar (Mark Consuelos) has three things he wants: “a setup guy, a utility infielder, and a cornerman who can hit.” Oscar asks manager Al (Dan Lauria) if he feels the team has a shot at contending should these be acquired. (You’re the GM, Oscar — that’s really more your call.) Al promises to keep the Padres in the playoff hunt if Oscar holds up his end of things.

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So, Kyle Schwarber is apparently not rusty. His first two games in Cleveland were so impressive that the Cubs even explored whether he was healthy enough to play the field in Chicago, before doctors put the kibosh on that idea. But with Schwarber torching Cleveland pitching the first two games of the series, the team now has a pinch-hitter they can’t wait to use in the three games in Wrigley this weekend. And having Schwarber ready to come off the bench should make for some fun cat-and-mouse strategy between Joe Maddon and Terry Francona.

The Tribe have two left-handed pitchers on their World Series roster, and one of them is Ryan Merritt, the soft-tossing rookie that they’re likely hoping they don’t have to use. For all intents and purposes, Andrew Miller is the only lefty in Cleveland’s bullpen, so the right-handedness of the Tribe’s relievers should make it fairly easy for Maddon to find a spot for Schwarber to hit. Because, despite his impressive walk against Miller in Game 1, you really don’t want to waste Schwarber’s one at-bat by having him face a left-handed pitcher.

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In 2014, the Cleveland Indians conducted a little experiment. Lonnie Chisenhall was still struggling as a third baseman, both offensively and defensively, and the club had had enough of Santana’s miscues behind the plate. In an attempt to maximize both the amount of offense in their lineup and Santana’s versatility, they began working him out at the hot corner in spring training, and an Opening Day, he was their third baseman. At first, things were OK — he’d field a bunt barehanded or make a diving play on a sharply hit grounder, but as soon as the Indians became comfortable enough putting Santana there everyday, things became a disaster. The experiment lasted just 26 games and 225.2 innings. Santana accrued -5 Defensive Runs Saved and a -6 UZR, good for a -39.5 UZR/150. He’s been a first baseman/designated hitter since.

Until tonight, apparently. Tonight, in a swing Game Three of the World Series, we’re apparently going to see the debut of Carlos Santana, Starting Left Fielder.

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As you’ve likely heard, the first World Series game at Wrigley Field in seven decades will be played this evening. The starting assignment belongs to Kyle Hendricks, the soft-tossing right-hander lovingly known as “The Professor.” At this point, Hendricks has done enough to convince the attentive fan that he’s an above-average major-league pitcher. While many of us were on board with Hendricks in 2014 and 2015, there might have still been cause to doubt a pitcher whose fastball sits at 88 mph. After a 2016 season during which he both maintained his strong fielding-independent numbers and allowed very few runs, there isn’t much room left for doubt.

Hendricks has further cemented that impression on the biggest stage, allowing just three runs in 16.1 innings this postseason to go along with his consistently strong fielding-independent resume. Even if you give plenty of credit to the Cubs’ superb defense for Hendricks’ top-line numbers, it’s hard to ignore his performance this season and over the last few weeks.

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I might need to prime you for this one first. I don’t know if this is something people are actually talking about, or if I just made this theory up. But it sounds like it could make sense, so let’s go forward. In Game 3, the Indians are throwing Josh Tomlin against Kyle Hendricks and the Cubs, in Chicago. That doesn’t seem to bode very well for the visitors. The Indians were already the underdog, and now they’re losing the DH and the home-field advantage. Our scoreboard page puts the Cubs’ odds of winning at 64%. You could argue a few points in either direction but the Cubs are supposed to win this game.

However, let’s theorize! How might you make yourself feel better about the Indians’ shot? We know Tomlin is by no means overpowering. He’s not a strikeout pitcher. What he is is a control pitcher, and in that regard he’s one of the best. He led the American League in strike rate, among qualified pitchers. He had baseball’s lowest walk rate, among qualified pitchers. Tomlin is forever around the zone, and, the Cubs offense just finished with the highest walk rate in baseball. Being disciplined about the zone has been a big part of the Cubs’ offensive equation. Doesn’t it make sense that the Cubs could struggle against strike-throwers, who consistently get ahead? Could Tomlin turn the Cubs’ discipline against them?

Pretty interesting theory, right? Yeah! No. Sorry, but, nope. Tomlin isn’t poised to turn the Cubs’ walk rate into a weakness. Sorry if I just spoiled the rest of the article, but if Tomlin is going to succeed, he’s going to have to do it simply by executing almost perfectly, just like everyone else.

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Ben and Sam banter about mean-spirited nicknames, then answer emails about Kyle Schwarber’s bat, Jon Lester’s long con, the neglected White Sox drought, the Nationals’ 2016 “success,” overcoming bad broadcasters, paying to play in the World Series, and more.

It may be impossible to believe after the last two games — after all the front-door sinkers thrown by Corey Kluber that turned the Cubs’ bats into mush and after a similar experience last night facilitated by his apprentice Trevor Bauer — but the front-door sinker is not a hot new trend in baseball.

First, to review: the front-door sinker is thrown from a pitcher of one hand to a hitter of the opposite one. The intention? Essentially, to fake the batter into not swinging. It’s a sinker thrown at the hip that then moves into the strike zone. Here’s an example from August Fagerstrom’s piece on Kluber this week:

Seems like a rad pitch. In the era of the swinging strike, it’s a pitch that’s designed to elicit a take. It relies on command in an era when we wonder if pitchers even have any command. After all, as I noted in my for last year’s Hardball Times Annual, the average pitcher misses the catcher’s target by more than 11 inches on a 3-0 count.

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There’s a fundamental truth about the playoffs that everyone knows, but that’s also easy to forget. That is, the playoffs are selective for the best. They’re selective for the best baseball teams, and as a part of that, they’re selective for the best baseball throwers and the best baseball hitters. Come playoff time, it doesn’t matter so much that, say, the Cubs trounced all their opponents, because in the playoffs, everyone is at least pretty good. The quality of competition evens things out. Lineups are disproportionately good, but so are pitching staffs, and it can feel almost like a whole month of partially-diluted All-Star Games.

October selects for the best on-field product. But what about the on-field umpires? We know that umpires have to earn their way to gaining postseason responsibilities. We know it’s considered an honor to be an ump in the playoffs, as it should be. You’d think it would follow that the playoff strike zone would reflect this selection on the part of the league. As I look at it, the October zone does appear slightly different. But not in the direction of being better. Rather, it seems a little more pitcher-friendly.

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Kyle Schwarber was the show, or at least the story, in last night’s Game Two of the World Series. After five plate appearances in April without a hit — followed by a six-month layoff that prevented him from facing even one major-league pitcher in a game situation — Schwarber has been up to the plate nine times on the biggest stage baseball has to offer. In those nine plate appearances, Schwarber has reached base safely more often than he hasn’t, and has yet to be retired when hitting the ball in play. Last night, his hits proved timely, producing the second and fourth runs for the Chicago Cubs as they evened a series that now heads back to Chicago. How has Cleveland approached him, and how has he responded?

It’s often said at the beginning of spring training that the pitchers are ahead of the hitters; batters don’t yet have their timing back and can have difficulty recognizing pitches. The chart below depicts all 40 pitches Schwarber has seen this postseason, color-coded by the result of the pitch. From Baseball Savant:

Of the 20 or so pitches clearly outside of the box above, Schwarber has offered at just three of them. Read the rest of this entry »