Ben and Sam reopen the great debate about who’s better, Bryce Harper or Mike Trout.

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On Monday, we talked a bit about Bryce Harper, and the fact that he is making a legitimate run at Mike Trout for the title of best player in baseball. Harper is somehow building off of last year’s dominant season, and at 23, he’s taking his remarkable performance up another level. But Harper isn’t the only 23 year old superstar playing near the beltway, and remarkably, he hasn’t even been the best player in the area this year. That title belongs to Manny Machado.

Through the first couple weeks of the season, Machado ranks second in the majors in batting average (.407), fourth in on-base percentage (.467), and second in slugging percentage (.796). This across-the-board dominance means that his .530 wOBA edges out Harper’s .526 wOBA for the top spot on the leaderboard, and Machado is the primary reason the Orioles are in first place in the AL East. While he has been overshadowed by the remarkable early-career success of Trout and Harper, and to some extent by Carlos Correa’s arrival last summer, it’s important to realize just how great Machado has become.

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Over the last few weeks in this space, we’ve conducted ball-in-play based analyses of position players’ and starting and relief pitchers’ 2015 performance. Last time, we considered AL relievers. Today we’ll present the last installment of this series, focusing on NL relief pitchers. It’s admittedly a little dicey to evaluate relief pitchers in this manner. The sample sizes are much smaller, and filled with more noise. Still, it’s a worthwhile exercise that can show us the different ways in which closers, set-up men, et al, get it done.

First, some background on the process. I identified the 214 relief pitchers from both leagues who yielded the most batted balls in 2015, making sure that all team save leaders were included in the sample. From that group, I selected 28 pitchers from each league for further scrutiny. Pitchers are listed with their 2015 league mates; those who were traded during the season will appear in the league in which they compiled the most innings. Pitchers are listed in “tru” ERA order. For those who have not read my previous articles on the topic, “tru” ERA is the ERA pitchers “should” have compiled based on the actual BIP frequency and authority they allowed relative to the league. Here we go:

Relief Pitcher BIP Profiles

	AVG MPH	FB/LD MPH	GB MPH	POP%	FLY %	LD%	GB%	ADJ C	K%	BB%	ERA-	FIP-	TRU-
Jansen	88.07	91.64	86.56	7.4%	46.3%	11.1%	35.2%	85	40.0%	4.0%	64	56	43
Kimbrel	89.42	92.05	86.82	3.9%	30.5%	19.5%	46.1%	62	36.4%	9.2%	69	70	45
A.Chapman	83.53	86.39	79.65	8.1%	33.0%	21.8%	37.1%	83	41.7%	11.9%	41	49	51
Storen	87.16	90.47	84.11	5.1%	32.6%	23.9%	38.4%	75	29.4%	7.0%	87	73	58
AJ.Ramos	86.80	90.72	82.82	4.4%	35.9%	16.4%	43.4%	76	31.4%	9.4%	59	80	60
W.Smith	88.72	91.15	88.36	1.4%	37.5%	15.3%	45.8%	91	34.5%	9.1%	67	61	63
Romo	84.14	90.03	80.39	4.1%	27.6%	23.4%	44.8%	95	30.9%	4.4%	83	53	64
Strop	89.71	90.49	89.35	4.6%	24.3%	19.7%	51.3%	74	30.0%	10.7%	74	81	64
Kelley	88.13	92.83	85.75	4.9%	33.0%	19.4%	42.7%	88	30.7%	7.3%	66	67	66
Melancon	87.99	92.05	85.13	3.3%	19.3%	19.8%	57.5%	73	21.2%	4.8%	59	75	66
Benoit	83.22	90.00	77.46	4.3%	32.1%	17.3%	46.3%	69	24.8%	9.1%	63	98	66
Dyson	88.41	91.73	87.26	1.9%	12.5%	16.8%	68.8%	73	23.0%	6.8%	66	76	67
Familia	86.23	90.18	85.06	2.5%	19.1%	20.1%	58.3%	90	27.9%	6.2%	50	71	69
R.Delgado	84.95	89.42	82.25	5.7%	35.0%	18.0%	41.2%	67	23.7%	10.7%	80	97	69
H.Rondon	87.60	89.05	85.96	1.6%	25.6%	20.4%	52.4%	84	24.6%	5.3%	43	69	70
Maurer	84.09	88.76	78.90	4.7%	25.5%	22.1%	47.7%	68	18.9%	7.3%	81	86	70
Fr.Rodriguez	85.64	89.08	82.26	2.1%	27.9%	23.6%	46.4%	97	28.7%	5.1%	55	72	71
Grilli	87.98	91.56	82.00	5.9%	41.2%	25.9%	27.1%	104	32.1%	7.1%	76	57	73
Rosenthal	87.76	91.57	87.65	4.5%	30.5%	19.2%	45.8%	93	28.9%	8.7%	55	63	74
Ziegler	88.89	89.20	88.51	0.5%	13.1%	13.6%	72.8%	65	13.7%	6.5%	45	89	75
Papelbon	88.57	90.98	89.24	2.8%	32.2%	15.3%	49.7%	95	21.5%	4.6%	54	95	81
Giles	88.55	90.67	87.58	2.2%	31.1%	21.9%	44.8%	107	29.2%	8.4%	46	54	82
Casilla	86.68	92.23	81.26	2.6%	27.1%	23.9%	46.5%	102	25.4%	9.4%	77	100	89
Nicasio	85.93	89.70	82.34	2.5%	29.3%	24.8%	43.3%	94	25.0%	12.3%	103	74	90
Jeffress	86.72	89.96	84.98	0.0%	18.0%	23.8%	58.2%	109	23.5%	7.7%	65	80	95
Cishek	86.47	90.89	83.03	0.6%	31.5%	21.8%	46.1%	98	19.8%	11.1%	92	102	103
Axford	91.65	93.10	91.09	1.3%	25.8%	16.8%	56.1%	120	24.8%	12.8%	92	85	112

First, a little background. The larger group of 214 relievers had a cumulative strikeout rate of 22.2% and walk rate of 8.2%. Both rates are higher than the comparable marks for starters (19.8% and 7.0%, respectively). The larger group of relievers also conceded less authoritative contact than starters, allowing lesser overall (88.02 mph for relievers, 88.46 mph for starters), FLY/LD (91.24 vs. 91.78) and grounder (85.76 vs. 86.30) authority. With regard to BIP frequency, relievers outpaced starters in the key grounder-rate category by 45.6% to 45.2%, and matched them in pop-up rate (3.2%).

The subset of relievers listed above generally represents the cream of the relief crop. Most of the column headers are self-explanatory, including average BIP speed (overall and by BIP type), BIP type frequency, K and BB rates, and traditional ERA-, FIP-, and “tru” ERA-. Each pitcher’s Adjusted Contact Score (ADJ C) is also listed. Again, for those of you who have not read my articles on the topic, Unadjusted Contact Score is derived by removing Ks and BBs from opposing hitters’ batting lines, assigning run values to all other events, and comparing them to a league average of 100. Adjusted Contact Score applies league-average production to each pitchers’ individual actual BIP type and velocity mix, and compares it to league average of 100.

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It is abundantly clear which team won the R.A. Dickey trade. Acquiring Noah Syndergaard, Travis d’Arnaud, John Buck, and Wulimer Becerra from the Blue Jays for Dickey, Josh Thole, and Mike Nickeas in December 2012 has paid off for the New York Mets in a big way. This isn’t a particularly controversial opinion in need of detailed supporting evidence, but Spencer Bingol covered the particulars of the Mets’ heist several months ago, even before Noah Syndergaard turned into a starter who pitches like a lights-out closer.

Barring something unexpected, the Mets will have gotten more wins at a lower price from their part in the trade than the Blue Jays will have from their part in the trade by the time Dickey’s contract expires at the end of this season. Then the Mets will continue to reap the benefits for several more seasons while d’Arnaud, Syndergaard, and Becerra remain under team control. There’s no way, in an absolute sense, to spin this as anything but a win for Mets and a loss for the Blue Jays.

This kind of retrospective analysis is valuable, but it is a bit simplistic. The interesting question isn’t which set of players performed better; that’s obvious.  The interesting question is if the Blue Jays would have been better off not making the trade.

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There’s a lot of info out there on a lot of prospects these days. Lead prospect analyst Dan Farnsworth has published detailed organizational lists for all 30 teams that typically run more than 30 deep. Similarly, Baseball America’s 2016 Prospect Handbook profiles the top 30 prospects in each organization.

However, each organization has far more than 30 or 40 players in its minor-league ranks. Using my KATOH projection system, I attempted to find the best of the rest. I’ve identified the players with the most promising statistical profiles who were omitted both from Dan’s organizational list and Baseball America’s organizational top-30 list. These are the players about whom no one is talking.

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Possible headline from 2013: Tyler White Is Mashing

Possible headline from 2014: Tyler White Is Mashing

Possible headline from 2015: Tyler White Is Mashing

Possible headline from right now: Tyler White Is Mashing

The best rookie hitter in baseball this year has not been Trevor Story. The best rookie hitter in baseball this year has been Tyler White, by nearly 60 points of wRC+ over Story. Maybe you haven’t heard about him as much because his last name doesn’t make for a convenient headline, but it’s happened. Tyler White is mashing, just like he has at every single level at which he’s played.

Despite that, less than a month ago, right before the start of the regular season, I wrote a post tossing some cold water on the White hype train after he’d won the Astros’ first-base job out of Spring Training. It’s not that I didn’t want to believe White could continue his mashing ways. I naively want to believe every player can succeed. It’s just that I’d found some historical precedent that compelled me to believe White’s skill set wouldn’t do a great job translating.

A brief recap of the aforementioned post: White is a first baseman, one who has typically relied moreso on controlling the strike zone for his minor-league success rather than hitting for great power. To determine the implications of that sort of profile, I looked at the historical precedent of first baseman who entered the league with plus walk and strikeout rates but below-average power, and found that those types of guys typically have had trouble translating. It’s a skillset that’s fine for a player who offers defensive and base-running value, but without more pop, these types of guys have had trouble sticking at first base at the major-league level. The article concluded as such:

From this one method of evaluating things, he looks like a good major-league hitter, just maybe not for a first baseman, and one whose approach works better in the minors without additional power. Then again, the next time he fails to exceed expectations with the bat will be the first.

Well. He’s exceeding expectations again. And it’s because he’s hitting for power. In 15 career major-league games, White’s already hit five homers, after having never hit more than eight at any one minor-league level, or more than 15 in any one minor-league season. His .380 isolated slugging percentage is top-five in baseball.

Now, of course, it’s been two weeks. You’ve already had that thought at least three times while reading this article. The projections already view White a bit differently, but, because it’s only been two weeks, not too differently. ZiPS has bumped his estimated true-talent ISO from .130 to .151. Steamer went from .149 to .156. The rest-of-season projections haven’t changed drastically, but the rest-of-season projections are never going to change too drastically after just two weeks. What has changed drastically is the updated projections.

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Marco Estrada is notable in several respects. The 32-year-old Blue Jays right-hander has elite spin rate and perceived rise on his four-seam fastball. He also has a bugs-bunny changeup; last year, the speed differential between his heater and his change was the most extreme among qualified pitchers. His BABIP is routinely well below average.

He’s also coming off a career-best season. Estrada made 28 starts for Toronto in 2015 and logged a 3.13 ERA. If the W-L column interests you, he finished 13-8.

The erstwhile National and Brewer has made a pair of starts so far this season, both against the Red Sox. He discussed his signature offerings, and his keep-it-simple approach, following the second of the two outings.

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Estrada on emerging as a front-line starter: “I added a pitch — I added a cutter — and I think that’s helped me out a lot. My mindset has completely changed. But… I get that all the time. People act like I’ve never done this before. If you look back to 2011, 2012, 2013, those were good seasons. Everybody seems to remember 2014, which was my worst season. Then I followed that up with my best season.”

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Any half-decent statistical analysis will tell you that Clayton Kershaw is the best pitcher in baseball. This is just about inarguable. Kershaw has pitched at an unbelievable level, and he’s been able to do it for an unbelievable amount of time. He has the peak and the track record, so while there have been other great pitchers, there aren’t any Kershaws, by the numbers. This is why Kershaw gets the best projections. Projections are our statistical measures of true talent, and Kershaw’s talent is alone by itself.

I know, I know, Jake Arrieta. And, yeah, I know, Chris Sale, and Jacob deGrom, and so on. I mean no disrespect to anyone else. Kershaw has just had the strongest argument, so I’m using him here as the point of comparison. Because, you see, we have a new potential contender. We’ve all noticed Noah Syndergaard, and people are starting to ask questions. I see it on Twitter. I saw it in Dave’s most recent FanGraphs chat. I heard it on the Effectively Wild podcast. The big question, which seems absurd but improbably isn’t: is Syndergaard now better than Kershaw? Is Syndergaard suddenly the best?

Let me be straight with you: I haven’t decided. Part of me thinks it’s stupid to even consider. The rest of me thinks we could be on to something. At least, Syndergaard does have a real argument. I’m going to lay it out below as I try to talk myself through the issue.

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