FanGraphs Baseball

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric nobleman Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Seattle at Boston | 13:35 ET
Walker (70.2 IP, 91 xFIP-) vs. Price (91.2 IP, 78 xFIP-)
While the arbritraily calculated NERD metric produced by the author indicates that this afternoon’s Mariners-Red Sox game is likely to offer the day’s best example of the Pastime, it’s unlikely that either he — or many other of this site’s contributors, in fact — will have the opportunity to inspect it closely. Instead, that same cadre of adorably nebbish men and women will be present at the Staten Island Yankees’ Sabermetrics Day event — for which event it’s necessary to leave literally right now, if managing Dave Cameron’s expression and wild gesticulations are a reliable indicator.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Boston Radio.

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Dylan Bundy felt like he was throwing with someone else’s arm. The Orioles right-hander didn’t word it that way, but that’s how it sounded when I spoke to him earlier this week. It’s not unlike an out-of-body experience when the radar gun is at odds with your senses, in both directions.

Bundy had Tommy John surgery in 2013, and the road back wasn’t always smooth. Along with arduous rehab, there were sensory blips.

“I felt out of whack when I started throwing again,” said Bundy.” Something just felt off. It was like my arm was perfectly fine, but I was trying to throw the ball 70 mph and it was coming out 55. It was a weird feeling.

“Even when I got all the way up to 92, when I was rehabbing in the minors, I would have games where my arm felt perfectly fine, my body felt fine, mechanically I was fine, but it felt like the ball was coming out 85 mph and it was really coming out 91-92. That was even weirder. I wondered if the feeling was ever going to go away.” Read the rest of this entry »

Team FanGraphs defeated Team RotoGraphs, 13-12, on a walkoff single by managing editor Dave Cameron off opposing pitcher Brad Johnson, scoring Craig Edwards in the middle of a field at Prospect Park in Brooklyn on Saturday afternoon. FanGraphs editor Paul Swydan was named the game’s MVP, mostly for an athletic jump over a thrown wiffle ball while advancing to third base.

What follows are two Very Important Highlights, taken from the author’s Snapchat account.
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Episode 660
Eric Longenhagen, previously of ESPN’s Draft Blog and Crashburn Alley (among other sites), has recently been named the lead prospect analyst for FanGraphs. On this edition of the program he discusses the half-life of scouting reports, the Mariners’ Kyle Lewis and elite small-conference draft prospects, and the improbable rise of the White Sox’ Tim Anderson.

This episode of the program is sponsored by SeatGeek, which site removes both the work and also the hassle from the process of shopping for tickets.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 1 hr 14 min play time.)

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric nobleman Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Cincinnati at Houston | 16:10 ET
Reed (MLB Debut) vs. Keuchel (87.2 IP, 81 xFIP-)
There’s not what one might call a “surfeit” of compelling reasons either to have watched or continue watching the Cincinnati Reds this year. They’ve recorded among the league’s worst offensive numbers this season, and the actual worst pitching ones. Their 27-41 record, already poor, is roughly five wins better than their BaseRuns numbers suggest it ought to be. If the Reds have succeed this year, it’s only at reminding the public that life is fleeting; joy, ephemeral.

What this game represents, however, is the major-league debut of left-hander Cody Reed — the sort of player, it seems, who might be partially responsible for that moment when the club returns to adequacy. Reed, who has produced strong numbers this year to complement his above-average arm speed, is well acquitted both by Chris Mitchell’s computer numbers and Eric Longenhagen’s scouting report.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Houston Radio.

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When Cody Reed takes the mound on Saturday he’ll likely be wearing the same pair of rec specs he’s worn since his sophomore year of high school. Reed donned the glasses after he had a hard time picking up signs from his catcher — especially during night games — as a freshman and has continued to wear them as a pro. Though, when Reed is pitching well, it’s opposing hitters who look like they could use a pair.

Reed was a late second-rounder out of Northwest Mississippi Community College in 2013. At the time the industry thought there was a good chance he’d just end up as a reliever. There was arm strength, there was an above-average slider, but the strike-throwing and changeup were both behind, and Reed’s firebrand mound presence had many considering him a potential closer. Now the velocity remains but the slider, and Reed’s usage of it, has improved — as has the changeup. He still has some issues throwing strikes, but things have progressed enough in that area that instead of his control dictating whether or not he starts or relieves, it’s going to dictate just how good of a starter he’s going to be.

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Collectively, Reds pitchers have been all sorts of terrible this year. Their team ERA (5.45) and FIP (5.62) are both easily the worst in baseball, as injuries to Homer Bailey, Raisel Iglesias and Michael Lorenzen have left their rotation painfully thin. It’s about to get better, though, as top prospect Cody Reed is set to make his big-league debut tomorrow. Since we’ve likely passed the Super Two deadline, he should be up for good.

Reed enjoyed a breakout season in 2015, when he posted an impressive 24% strikeout rate and 2.93 FIP between High-A and Double-A. That was enough to make him a fixture on prospect lists last winter. He placed in the middle third of most top 100 rankings.

Reed built on last year’s success at the Triple-A level this year. Although he’s faced better competition, his strikeout and walk rates have remained on par with last year’s numbers. The end result has been a 3.20 ERA and 3.37 FIP. Not bad at all for a 23-year-old facing borderline big-league hitters.

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J.D. Martinez broke his elbow Friday night, leaving an already depleted Tigers outfield even further depleted. Martinez is expected to miss 4-6 weeks according to MLB.com, and the team has called up Steven Moya to replace Martinez in the lineup. If Moya can be the best version of himself, the Tigers might not actually miss Martinez all that much.
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Just last week, the Cubs added another productive asset to their already stacked lineup when they called up outfielder Albert Almora. Today, they fortified their juggernaut offense even further by summoning slugging catcher Willson Contreras. Contreras has absolutely destroyed the Pacific Coast League this year. In 55 Triple-A games, he was slashing .353/.442/.593.

Contreras has demonstrated an exceptional combination of contact and power in Triple-A this year. He’s struck out just 13% of the time, yet has also managed to put up a .240 ISO. Some of that has to do with his playing in the PCL, where homers are very common. But a lot of it doesn’t: On a per plate appearance basis, he hit significantly more singles, doubles, triples and home runs than the typical PCL hitter. As if that weren’t enough, he also drew walks and even stole four bases. From a hitting perspective, he did it all. Read the rest of this entry »

Cubs catcher Willson Contreras was already creating a good deal of discussion within the industry before the trade deadline last year and, indeed, teams were asking about Contreras as that day came and went. The Cubs rebuffed and Contreras continued what was arguably the biggest breakout among positional prospects in 2015 on through Arizona Fall League, where every team saw him succeed against a superlative class of AFL arms before he tweaked his hamstring hauling ass down to first base on a groundout the first week of November and was shut down. He picked up where he left off in 2016 and owns a .350/.439/.591 line at Triple-A Iowa with 28 extra-base hits in just 239 PAs.

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