FanGraphs Baseball

Josh Donaldson is a superstar. There’s not really any agreed-upon definition of what a superstar is or isn’t, but there are certain obvious candidates, and Donaldson is among them. He hasn’t been the Blue Jays’ best hitter. Jose Bautista is probably also a superstar. He’s aging, sure, but he’s terrifying. He hasn’t been the Blue Jays’ best hitter, either. Edwin Encarnacion is a nightmare to face. He hasn’t been the Blue Jays’ best hitter. Troy Tulowitzki has been one of the best all-around shortstops in recent baseball history. He hasn’t been the Blue Jays’ best hitter. Russell Martin has been one of the better all-around catchers in recent baseball history. He hasn’t been the Blue Jays’ best hitter. The Blue Jays actually tried to trade away the guy who’s been their best hitter. Their best hitter has been Michael Saunders.

And to be clear about this, it’s not like all those Blue Jays have struggled. Donaldson has continued to be one of the very best players in the game. He’s amazing! Slugging .563. Super good. Saunders is slugging .596. We usually like to rank hitters by wRC+. Saunders hasn’t been David Ortiz, because no one has been David Ortiz, not this year. He leads baseball at 189. Daniel Murphy’s the current runner-up, at 163. Saunders is one of three players at 162. We’re approaching the halfway point, and Michael Saunders has been a top-five offensive force. Not bad for a Blue Jay who was nearly an Angel.

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Ben and Sam banter about Clayton Kershaw and clarify five-man infields, then discuss who would be on a baseball Mount Rushmore and dig through Sports Illustrated’s archives to pinpoint what makes Vin Scully so great.

Back in November, the Milwaukee acquired outfielder Ramon Flores from the Seattle Mariners in exchange for Luis Sardinas. At first glance, that move seemed inconsequential enough — one fringe major leaguer for another. But Flores’ minor-league track record suggests he may not always be inconsequential. He hit a strong .308/.401/.454 as a 23-year-old in Triple-A last year and a respectable .247/.339/.443 at the same level in 2014. That was enough to put him 24th on KATOH’s pre-season top 100 list. Due to his underwhelming tools, however, most scouts thought he was, at best, a fourth outfielder.

Flores also came with a logistical caveat: since he was out of options, he couldn’t be sent to the minor leagues without passing through waivers. It was far from obvious that Flores was up for the challenge of facing big-league pitching. Not only did he lack physicality and experience, but he was also recovering from a compound ankle fracture suffered last August. Nonetheless, the Brewers granted Flores a spot on their opening-day roster after he showed he was healthy in spring training. Early on, that decision looked somewhat questionable. In semi-regular playing time, Flores strung together several 0-fers in April, which contributed to an embarrassing .125/.205/.125 stat line through April 28th.

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Between 2013 – 2015, Adrian Gonzalez slugged .474. So far this year, Gonzalez has slugged .382. What’s going on? This one’s easy. Three years ago, Gonzalez didn’t hit many grounders. He ranked in baseball’s bottom fourth. Two years ago, Gonzalez didn’t hit many grounders. He ranked in baseball’s bottom fourth. One year ago, Gonzalez didn’t hit many grounders. He ranked in baseball’s bottom fourth. This year, Gonzalez has hit too many grounders. He ranks in baseball’s upper fifth. You don’t hit for power when you’re hitting these grounders.

Of course, that doesn’t so much answer the question as simply rephrase it. Instead of wondering where the power went, now it’s a matter of wondering where the grounders are coming from. This one also seems easy. Gonzalez’s back has hurt. Ever hurt your back? Makes it hard to do things. Makes it hard to get out of bed, nevermind slug a 95 mile-per-hour fastball. Not that all back injuries are alike, but Gonzalez has talked about this one. It makes all the sense in the world that his numbers would be worse because he’s physically compromised. To his credit, he still hasn’t been an offensive zero. But it’s fair to wonder if we’re going to see normal Gonzalez at all.

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The winter sports have crowned their champions, Cleveland has its first title in eons thanks to their prodigal son LeBron, and baseball now owns a greater part of the sporting stage for the rest of the summer. In that spirit, we continue to take a position-by-position look at hitter contact quality, utilizing granular ball-in-play data, such as BIP type frequencies, exit speed and launch angle. Last time, it was second basemen. Today, the shortstops are at bat. Read the rest of this entry »

Heading into the season, the Mets plan to repeat as National League champions seemed pretty obvious; they were going to beat their opponents with elite starting pitching and an above average offense, hoping those strengths would outweigh their defensive deficiencies and a just-okay bullpen. It was a solid enough plan, and based on their depth chart on Opening Day, we gave them a 51% chance to win the division and a 78% chance to make the postseason. And mostly, those things have played out as expected. The rotation has been fantastic, ranking second best in baseball to this point. The bullpen has been fine, with occasional lapses. The defense has been bad.

But one part of the formula hasn’t really gone according to plan yet; that productive offense hasn’t really come to fruition. To this point, the offense has been a little bit below average, ranking right in the middle of the pack in wRC+ while costing themselves some runs with relatively poor baserunning. And on top of that, the team has distributed their hits in a highly inefficient way, so despite an expected 4.2 runs per game based on their BaseRuns inputs, they are only scoring 3.7 runs per game, third-worst in the majors.

Certainly, health has been part of the problem. First, Travis d’Arnaud went on the DL at the end of April. Then in May, it was Wilmer Flores and and Lucas Duda. June brought David Wright’s DL stint, and more recently, news that he’ll require back surgery that may sideline him for the rest of the season. The infield has ended up as a patchwork group, and with Michael Conforto and Alejandro de Aza not hitting as well as expected, the outfield hasn’t been able to carry the load. And so now, the team is openly talking about making more additions, and not waiting until the trade deadline to do so.

“I think we might need to do something before,” Wilpon said Monday at the Harlem RBI fundraiser in Manhattan. “The deadline is still four, six weeks away. We’ve got to start playing better baseball now.”

Thankfully for the Mets, identifying a potential spot to upgrade is pretty easy. They’re not going to add an outfielder, most likely, given that group is already crowded, and Conforto and de Aza can both be expected to improve in the second half. Neil Walker has been good at second base, and Asdrubal Cabrera is a good enough player at shortstop to not require a replacement. So, the team is left with just the corner infield spots or behind the plate if they want to upgrade the offense.

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The scouting report on Kenta Maeda never suggested he was overpowering. He was never expected to post extreme strikeout totals, and while his above-average 24% strikeout rate is somewhat surprising, it’s only part of the reason the 28-year-old Japanese rookie has been one of the 20 or 25 best pitchers in baseball this season.

The other part is the part that makes more sense for Maeda and less sense to the rest of us. It’s still difficult to suss out what exactly goes into the skill of generating soft contact, or how much of it is a skill at all, but thus far, Maeda’s been among the best at it. Given how little we’ve seen him work, Maeda’s a relatively mysterious pitcher. Soft contact is a mysterious skill. That’s two mysteries, and playing detective is fun.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric nobleman Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Surprise Meeting of the Corey Kluber Society
The Purpose of This Post
The purpose of this post is to announce an impromptu meeting — in this case, at 7:10pm ET tonight (Tuesday) — of the Corey Kluber Society.

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A few days ago, I shared KATOH’s thoughts on the college players who were drafted (and not drafted) in this year’s amateur draft. There were hundreds of them. Many of the players with very good projections went in the first round, including Nick Senzel, A.J. Puk and Cody Sedlock. But the player with the very best KATOH projection fell all the way to the 10th round. The end of the 10th round. That player is Dakota Mekkes, whom the Cubs drafted with the 314th-overall pick out of Michigan State.

Mekkes was straight up filthy this past season. Pitching in the Big 10, Mekkes struck out a remarkable 96 batters in just 57 innings without surrendering a single home run. The catch is that he pitched exclusively in relief — though he wasn’t used like a typical reliever, and actually pitched more like a starter in some cases. Mekkes averaged over two innings per appearance in relief, and frequently threw many more than that. Most notably, he tossed six shutout innings in an extra-inning game against Maryland. Unlike most college relievers, he wasn’t a one-inning guy, which helps explain why KATOH likes him more than most relievers.

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