Job Posting: Boston Red Sox Baseball Operations Analytics Intern

Position: Boston Red Sox Baseball Operations Analytics Intern

Location: Boston

Description:
The Boston Red Sox are seeking a Baseball Operations intern with a focus on analytics for the 2016 calendar year. The internship will provide exposure to all departments within baseball operations. Applicants must have a passion for baseball, strong work ethic, excellent communication skills, attention to detail, and the ability to work quickly while balancing multiple priorities.

Candidates must be available to start by the end of January and continue in the position until mid-December. The position reports to the Director of Major League Operations. Please note that such positions have the potential to lead to a full-time employment offer, but such an offer is not guaranteed.

Responsibilities:

  • Statistical modeling and quantitative analysis of a variety of data sources, for the purpose of player evaluation, strategic decision-making, decision analysis, etc.
  • Ad hoc queries and quantitative research in support of general Baseball Operations tasks.
  • Overseeing daily updates to our baseball information system.
  • Monitoring the quality of external data feeds.
  • Staying current on publicly available baseball research.
  • Various game-day duties, as necessary.
  • General intern duties.

Qualifications:

  • A strong foundation in mathematics, statistics, computer science and/or engineering.
  • Strong baseball knowledge.
  • Experience using SQL.
  • Familiarity with current baseball research and analysis.
  • Familiarity with a statistical software package such as R.
  • Proficiency in Microsoft Office (Excel, PowerPoint, Word).
  • Ability to work evening, weekend, and holiday hours is a must.
  • Other programming and database skills are a plus.

Compensation:
This position is compensated.

To Apply:
To apply, please send an email to analyticsresume@redsox.com with the subject “2016 Analytics Internship”. Please include a resume and answers to the following questions:

  1. What computer programming experience do you have?
  2. What is a project that you believe would add substantial value to a baseball team? Please describe the project and provide an overview of how you would complete it.

Job Postings: Texas Rangers Baseball Systems Architect & Quantitative Analyst

Just to be clear, there are two positions here.

Position: Texas Rangers Architect, Baseball Systems

Location: Arlington, Texas

Description:
The Architect, Baseball Systems will expand and maintain our existing proprietary software for baseball operations.

Responsibilities:

  • Maintain and expand our internal web site, reports and internal applications.
  • Designing and maintaining the database.
  • Import, transformation and maintenance of multiple complex data feeds.
  • Work with baseball operations staff to identify requirements.
  • Support end users.

Qualifications:

  • Five to 10 years professional software development experience (preference for full stack .NET developers).
  • Bachelor’s degree or higher in computer science preferred.
  • Excellent written and verbal communication skills.
  • Familiarity with current statistical concepts in baseball.
  • Passion for the game.
  • Experience in any of the following are helpful: C#, Microsoft SQL Server (development, data design, query tuning), ASP.Net web forms, SQL Server Reporting Services, SQL Server Integration Services, jQuery, Tableau.

Compensation:
This position is compensated.

To Apply:
It is a big plus if you can include or link to work samples a big plus when you apply for this position. Please apply here.

Position: Texas Rangers Quantitative Analyst

Location: Arlington, Texas

Description:
The Quantitative Analyst will create statistical models and applications and assist in general research and development work for Baseball Operations.

Responsibilities:

  • Develop statistical models; import, export and transform data as necessary to prepare the data sets for these models.
  • Develop automation, applications and reports to put models into production for users.
  • Conduct general research and development.
  • Work with baseball operations staff to prioritize areas of research along with developing a deeper understanding of the game.

Qualifications:

  • One-three years’ experience in a similar role preferred (inside or outside of baseball).
  • Bachelor’s degree in Statistics, Data Science, Engineering or similar fields or equivalent work experience.
  • Proficiency in SQL and relational databases (we use Microsoft SQL Server).
  • Proficiency in R or similar statistics packages.
  • Proficiency in SQL Server Reporting Services, Tableau or other visualization or reporting tools a plus.
  • Passion for baseball.
  • Strong understanding of baseball statistics and strategy, familiarity with current sabermetric research.
  • Strong written and verbal communications skills.

Compensation:
This position is compensated.

To Apply:
It is a big plus if you can include or link to work samples a big plus when you apply for this position. Please apply here.


The Orioles’ Secret Weapon

There’s a pitcher you might not have ever heard of. Or maybe you have heard of him, but you haven’t thought about him much. He did spend a chunk of last year in the major leagues, and now, let me explain him to you, using a series of facts.

The pitcher threw his fastball about as hard as Andrew Miller, and he also threw strikes about as often as Andrew Miller. He worked in the zone about as much as David Price, yet hitters didn’t like to swing at those pitches. He walked batters around the same rate as Corey Kluber, but he struck batters out around the same rate as Jake McGee, because he had a lower contact rate than Jose Fernandez, and a comparable swinging-strike rate to Noah Syndergaard. That’s how you wind up with a K-BB% like Dellin Betances, an ERA- like Zack Greinke, an FIP- better than Aroldis Chapman, and an xFIP- like Kenley Jansen. Last year, 476 pitchers threw at least 25 innings. The mystery pitcher performed as one of the very, very best.

He yielded the 18th-lowest batting average. Also the ninth-lowest OBP, and the 44th-lowest slugging percentage, despite working in the American League and in a hitter-friendly environment. So he gave up the 17th-lowest OPS. All these numbers are based on a pretty small sample. Yet all these numbers are impossibly encouraging.

Read the rest of this entry »


FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 12/15/15

9:00
Paul Swydan: Hi everybody! OK, let’s do this!

9:00
Jeff Zimmerman: Hi

9:00
Billy Corman: There is a lot of substance behind the splash the Cubs have made this offseason. Cardinals seem to be missing out (I wouldn’t say they’re missing Cueto, Bob. *laughs*). All I read was the new TV contract money and $200mm for Heyward. Who’s the dance partner they take to the playoffs, Chris Davis?http://tpj.videonativesltd.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/office-space-the-bobs.png

9:01
Jeff Zimmerman: I think they will end up with one of Gordon, Cespedes or Upton

9:02
Paul Swydan: Here’s the thing. They don’t NEED any one player. But I think they’d be wise to keep upgrading their bullpen.

9:02
Paul Swydan: VEEP!

Read the rest of this entry »


Farewell, Jeff Francis

There was a time when Jeff Francis was on top of the world. As the best pitcher on the improbable 2007 National League champion Colorado Rockies squad, Francis pitched many pivotal games during the team’s Rocktober march, including starting all three postseason Game Ones. He even landed on the cover of Sports Illustrated, a rare feat for a Colorado Rockies team that rarely finds itself the subject of national attention:

jeff20francis20mag20cover

Francis, one of the more humble baseball players I’ve ever come into contact with, who actually could have done anything he wanted to in life (he was a physics major in college) copped to buying up every copy of that issue he could find. He even sent autographed copies of it to his former coaches, which is a pretty cool thing to do.

That issue was dated Oct. 15, 2007. He landed on the cover because at that point he and the Rockies were rolling. When it landed on newstands, the team had won 20 of its last 21 games, and would win again that night to send the Rockies to their first and (still) only World Series berth. Francis had pitched admirably along the way. In Game 1 in Philadelphia, he pitched six innings of two-run ball, striking out eight. Eight days later, in the desert against the Dbacks, he arguably pitched even better. He didn’t have his strikeouts working, but he netted 13 ground balls, and allowed just one run over 6.2 innings. He was bestowed with the “W” in both outings.

In fact, while Francis had lost the only game the Rockies lost from mid-September until late October, he had pitched pretty well in the second half, and for the season overall. His 3.7 WAR in 2007 still represents the eighth-best single-season Rockies total, and his 14.2 WAR with the Rockies is still the third-most on their career pitching leaderboard. That second half, he mixed efficient quality starts with total drubbings, as he did for most of his career — the crafty Francis was often at the mercy of the home plate umpire.

Speaking of drubbings, that second loss, the one he endured in late October at the hands of the Red Sox, was a rude awakening for the Rockies and their fans. Facing the behemoth Boston lineup, Francis coughed up six runs in four innings in Game One of the 2007 World Series. Dustin Pedroia would lead the game off with a home run, and Red Sox hitters made it tough on Francis all night. He never recorded four consecutive outs, and allowed baserunners in every inning. In fact, Francis’ Game Score for the outing was a lowly 18. As it turns out, this is one of the worst Game Scores in Game One World Series history:

Worst Game Scores, World Series Game One History
Year Pitcher Team GSc
2004 Woody Williams STL 11
1945 Hal Newhouser DET 16
1996 Andy Pettitte NYY 17
2007 Jeff Francis COL 18
1997 Orel Hershiser CLE 21
1919 Eddie Cicotte CHW 22
1979 Bruce Kison PIT 25
2014 James Shields KC 25
1940 Paul Derringer CIN 26
1932 Guy Bush CHC 27
1959 Roger Craig LAD 27
1965 Don Drysdale LAD 27
1980 Dennis Leonard KC 27
SOURCE: Baseball-Reference
Find the full list of World Series Game One Game Scores here.

Despite this, there’s actually an argument to be made that the Rockies were better off with Francis in the game. Franklin Morales — who, at the time, was still a stud phenom (though not as much after this night) — was brought in to start the fifth, and he and Ryan Speier proceeded to torch any small chance the Rockies had of coming back. The pair allowed 10 baserunners and seven runs in just 0.2 innings pitched (Speier didn’t even retire a batter), and suddenly it was 13-1. An hour or so into the World Series, the life had been sucked out of the Rockies. Boston would only trail for four innings during their tidy four-game sweep.

Today, Jeff Francis announced his retirement, and 2007 seems like a long time ago. In 2008, Francis would begin to have shoulder trouble, and was rarely ever the same pitcher he was in 2007 on a consistent basis. But he still ground out a pretty decent career. Most kids who grew up loving baseball would be ecstatic if they were told they could pitch in the majors for 11 seasons, and even more so if you told them that in one of those 11 seasons they’d wind up on the cover of Sports Illustrated. No, 16 WAR isn’t going to get Jeff Francis into the Hall of Fame, but even if it ended without a parade, he’ll always have Rocktober, and that’s pretty good.


Where the Cubs Go With Jorge Soler

There’s not a single thing the Cubs need to do. They’re outstanding right now, and at a time when people can still buy Christmas presents without expedited shipping, the roster could be considered complete. Probably, the Cubs will come out of this offseason as NL Central favorites. From there, they could remain favorites, but I don’t want to spook any fans who might’ve become increasingly superstitious.

The Cubs could be considered complete, and in right field, they line up to have a 24-year-old Jorge Soler, a player they control through 2020, a player who, in 2014, was one of the three best hitters in the minor leagues, alongside two current teammates. Soler is dynamic and exciting and the sort of player any team would love to have in the system. Yet these rumors persist, trying to send Soler elsewhere. There’s enough smoke you sense there might be a flame: Soler might be on the move any day now. The Cubs would probably prefer a bit more certainty. Which means there are the potential makings here of a major trade.

Read the rest of this entry »


Arauz By Any Other Name: Projecting the Arauzes in the Ken Giles Trade

In the days since we first caught wind of the Ken Giles trade, we’ve learned of a few players who weren’t previously thought to be included. For one, the Astros sent pitching prospect Mark Appel to Philly, rather than outfield prospect Derek Fisher. Additionally, the two teams also swapped Arauzess: Middle infield prospect Jonathan Arauz is headed to Houston, while pitching prospect Harold Arauz goes to Philly. Although they share a last name, and happened to be in the same trade, the two are unrelated. Baseball can be weird sometimes. Anyway, here’s what KATOH thinks of these prospects. Note that WAR figures represent projected WAR through the player’s age-28 season based on 2015 minor-league stats.

Jonathan Arauz, 3.9 WAR (Profile)

The Phillies signed Jonathan Arauz out of Panama with a $600,000 bonus in the summer of 2014. Although he didn’t turn 17 until August, the Phillies brought Arauz stateside to start his pro career, and he didn’t embarrass himself. He hit .254/.309/.370 in 44 games while splitting time between second base and shortstop.

Read the rest of this entry »


Evaluating the Giants’ Diversification Strategy

Two weeks ago, the San Francisco Giants were in the midst of a push to try and steal Zack Greinke away from the Los Angeles Dodgers. With a strong offensive core in place, upgrading the pitching staff was the obvious move for the team this winter, and pairing Greinke with Madison Bumgarner at the top of the rotation would have given the team one of the best pitching duos in baseball. However, their dreams of landing Greinke were dashed when the Arizona Diamondbacks came in and blew away the competition, offering a six year and guaranteeing $206 million in salary; neither the Dodgers nor the Giants were reportedly anywhere close to that number.

Over the last couple of weeks, their backup plan has come into focus; sign two good pitchers instead of one great one. First, it was Jeff Samardzija, and then yesterday, it was Johnny Cueto, with the team agreeing to guarantee $220 million to the pair over the next six years; significantly more than they were willing to spend on Greinke by himself, in fact. And this brings up an interesting question: since the Giants apparently had $220 million to spend on starting pitching this winter, would they have been better off just outbidding the Diamondbacks to land the ace they wanted, or is spreading the wealth around a better plan?

Read the rest of this entry »


KATOH Projects: Baltimore Orioles Prospects

Recently here, lead prospect analyst Dan Farnsworth published his excellently in-depth prospect list for the Baltimore Orioles. In this companion piece, I look at that same Baltimore farm system through the lens of my KATOH projection system. There’s way more to prospect evaluation than just the stats, so if you haven’t already, I highly recommend you read Dan’s piece in addition to this one. KATOH has no idea how hard a pitcher throws, how good a hitter’s bat speed is, or what a player’s makeup is like. So it’s liable to miss big on players whose tools don’t line up with their performances. However, when paired with more scouting-based analyses, KATOH’s objectivity can be useful in identifying talented players who might be overlooked by the industry consensus or highly-touted prospects who might be over-hyped.

Below, I’ve grouped prospects into three groups: those who are forecast for two or more wins through their age-28 seasons, those who receive a projection of at between 1.0 and 2.0 WAR though their age-28 seasons; and then any residual players who received Future Value (FV) grades of 45 or higher from Dan. Note that I generated forecasts only for players who accrued at least 200 plate appearances or batters faced last season. Also note that the projections for players over a relatively small sample are less reliable, especially when those samples came in the low minors.

1. Chance Sisco, C (Profile)
KATOH Projection Through Age 28 (2015 stats): 9.7 WAR
KATOH Projection Through Age 28 (2014 stats): 7.1 WAR
Dan’s Grade: 45 FV

Cisco demolished High-A pitching last year to the tune of .308/.387/.422. He ran nearly-equal strikeout and walk rates, and complimented them with modest power and a high BABIP. That performance earned him a late-season cameo at Double-A, where he also excelled in many of the same categories. A season like that would be impressive from any 20-year-old, but Cisco’s is especially encouraging since he’s a catcher. Few catchers hit as well as Cisco has, making him one of the most compelling prospects in the game.

Read the rest of this entry »


Putting a Value on the Future of Yoenis Cespedes

When Yoenis Cespedes suits up in April, he will very likely be playing for his fifth team in just over a 20-month period. His last 211 games have been split between four clubs. Some might try to use this as a reason to undervalue Cespedes in free agency and argue that three, perhaps four, teams have given up on him of late. Those arguments tend to miss the point, as the Oakland Athletics are prone to trade anyone, the Boston Red Sox desperately needed pitching last season while also possessing a surplus of outfielders, the Detroit Tigers fell out of the playoff race, and the New York Mets are merely prone to some unusual spending limits. The market for outfielders has been slow to develop, but with Jason Heyward off the board, we should begin to see Cespedes’ market gain some clarity.

Cespedes has certainly had an unusual couple of years, although his career as a whole has hardly been typical. Most recently with the Mets, Cespedes came to the United States from Cuba and signed a four year, $36 million contract with Oakland that would make him a free agent at the end of those four seasons. Cespedes hit well almost immediately, putting up a .292/.356/.505 line along with a 136 wRC+ in his first 540 plate appearances.

In the following two seasons, Cespedes could not reproduce the 8% walk rate of his initial season, his BABIP dropped a bit, and he settled in for two seasons of slightly above-average offense with above-average defense in left field, totaling 5.7 WAR over two seasons — with the A’s for a year and a half and then half a season with the Red Sox. Last season was Cespedes’ best season since 2012: he hit .291/.328/.542 for a 135 wRC+ that included 17 home runs in just 51 games following his trade from the Tigers to the Mets. That production led, in no small way, to the Mets’ appearance in the postseason.

In trying to determine what Cespedes will look like over the next five to seven years of a new contract, finding comps using career numbers is unlikely to yield great results. Based on how Cespedes performed at age 26 with the A’s, he was clearly ready for major league baseball. Due to the constraints of Cuba’s emigration laws, however, he was denied the opportunity to play against the game’s best players. As a result, his career numbers are unique. Focusing specifically on the most recent three years, however, we can find some interesting comparable players.

Read the rest of this entry »