FanGraphs Baseball

Recently, we massively revamped our Player Graphs and are continuing to add more features to them. Today, we added several batted-ball and plate-discipline stats both for pitchers and batters in a new drop-down menu. In addition, it’s now possible to combine certain stats on the same graph.

Here are a few release notes for the update:

• We have added GB%, LD%, FB%, HH%, MH%, SH%, Pull%, Cent%, Oppo%, O-Swing%, Z-Swing%, Swing%, O-Contact%, Z-Contact% and Contact% to all batters and pitchers.
• We’ve added K% and BB% for pitchers.
• By using the drop-down menus, readers are able to mix and match up to five stats on a graph as long as the stats are on the same scale.
• Stats are on the same scale if they are formatted in the same manner. For example, K% and GB% are both percentages. A stat like wOBA, meanwhile, uses the traditional three-decimal format. K% and GB% can be plotted on the same graph while wOBA can’t be paired with either K% or GB%.
• Readers are able to reset and clear the chart by hitting the “Reset” button on the right side of the drop-down menu.
• If a stat is greyed-out in the menu, it can’t be added to the graph. Either the player doesn’t have data for that particular stat or the stat cannot be matched with other stats currently on the graph. You can click “Reset” to start over and clear the current graph.

With this new interface we’ll continue adding more stats and features.

Ben and Sam banter about a Clayton Kershaw mystery and discuss where the depressing Padres should go from here.

Historically, players selected straight out of high school in the Major League Baseball draft, or those drafted following their junior year in college, were forced to walk something of a fine line. Because the National Collegiate Athletic Association’s rules specified that any player who formally signed with an agent would lose his remaining college eligibility, draftees could not be directly represented by an agent when negotiating with an MLB team.

Instead, players could only employ an agent in an “advisory” capacity. Under NCAA rules, so long as a player’s “advisor” did not directly communicate with an MLB team on the player’s behalf, and so long as the player compensated the advisor for his services (at the advisor’s normal hourly rate), a player would maintain his college eligibility should he ultimately elect not to sign a professional contract and instead return to (or enroll in) college.

Of course, in practice this distinction between an “agent” and an “advisor” often turned out to merely be a matter of semantics. Teams routinely expected (and preferred) to communicate directly with a player’s agent, rather than the player himself, while recent draftees usually preferred to have their agent/advisor negotiate directly with an MLB team on their behalf. So despite their official title, advisors often served as players’ agents, directly representing their clients during their interactions with MLB teams, in violation of NCAA rules.

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In the winter of 2013, the Yankees faced a decision on star second baseman Robinson Cano, and after years of getting burned with big contracts for aging players, the team drew the line in the sand when Cano asked for a 10 year deal. After maxing out their offer to Cano at $175 million over seven years, the Yankees let Cano leave for Seattle, but then promptly reallocated most of the money earmarked for their second baseman to center fielder Jacoby Ellsbury; he signed with New York for $153 million over seven years a week after Cano signed with the Mariners.

Because of the similarities of the offers and the timing of when they occurred, Ellsbury is always going to be linked to Cano, and comparisons between the two have become a frequent source of conversation. That was especially true back in April, when Cano got off to a blistering start to the season while Ellsbury struggled tremendously. A few days into the season, ESPN ran this story from Andrew Marchand.

Jacoby Ellsbury could go down as one of the worst free agent signings in Yankee history https://t.co/2EXsqLKfur

— Andrew Marchand (@AndrewMarchand) April 8, 2016

Similar stories followed over the next month, as Ellsbury limped to a .235/.278/.341 line over the first month of the season. The slow came on the heels of a miserable second half to the 2015 season, and by the time April ended, Ellsbury had hit just .241/.293/.338 (a 71 wRC+) over the past calendar year, spanning a total of 498 plate appearances. It was pretty easy to write Ellsbury off as a washed-up and overpaid mistake.

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Nos. #30 – #21

Roughly four years ago now, the present author facilitated a crowdsourcing project designed to place a “grade” on each of the league’s television and radio broadcast teams. The results weren’t intended to represent the objective quality or skill of the relevant announcers, but rather to provide a clue as to which broadcast teams are likely to appeal most (or least) to the readers of this site.

The results of that original exercise have been useful as a complement to the dumb NERD scores published by the author in these pages. Four years later, however, they’ve become much less useful. In the meantime, a number of the broadcast teams cited in that original effort have changed personnel. It’s possible that the tastes of this site’s readers have changed, also.

Recently, the author published an updated version of the television rankings according to the site’s readership. This week: the results of that same exercise, but for radio broadcasts.

Below are the 20th- through 11th-ranked radio-broadcast teams, per the FanGraphs readership.

But first, three notes:

• Teams are ranked in ascending order of Overall rating. Overall ratings are not merely averages of Charisma and Analysis.
• The author has attempted to choose reader comments that are either (a) illustrative of the team’s place in the rankings or (b) conspicuously amusing.
• A complete table of ratings will appear in these pages on Thursday, unless they appear later than that.

20. Baltimore Orioles
Main Broadcasters: Joe Angel and Fred Manfra (and Jim Hunter)
Ratings (Charisma/Analysis/Overall): 3.8, 3.3, 3.6

Representative Reader Comment
“Angel… [d]oesn’t really offer any in-depth analysis or anything but he’s witty, natural, always ready to go. Never at a loss for words.”

Notes
There appears to be something like a consensus that Joe Angel is the real draw of the Orioles’ radio broadcast. There’s also something like a consensus that the author ought to be clear about the various broadcasters’ roles — namely, how Angel and Manfra serve as the main radio personnel, handling play-by-play duties in alternating fashion over the course of a game, and that Hunter periodically substitutes for one or the other of them.

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Ever since we’ve known about Aaron Nola, whom the Phillies selected with the seventh overall pick in the 2014 draft (nearly two years ago to the day), we’ve heard about front-of-the-rotation potential without traditional front-of-the-rotation stuff. Nola’s a righty, and he throws in the low-90s, and so for there to be front-of-the-rotation potential suggests something else. Pitchability, command, deception, feel — whatever non-stuff-related adjectives you want to use, the thought’s been all along that Nola’s possessed it in spades.

Following the draft and half a season of professional ball in 2014, Baseball America’s scouting report declared that “Nola’s hallmark is his stellar command.” Baseball Prospectus noted that Nola “brings a polished three-pitch arsenal, with strong command and solid deception.” Kiley McDaniel’s evaluation included perhaps the strongest description of Nola’s unquantifiable pitching ability, saying he “has an amazing feel to pitch.”

Fast-forward another year and some change, and Nola’s in his second major-league season — first full season — and we’re not only seeing that front-of-the-rotation potential quicker than most expected, but we’re seeing hints of an even higher ceiling than most expected. Through 12 starts, Nola’s averaged 6.5 innings per start with a 2.65 ERA and a 2.73 FIP. He’s been a top-30 starter by RA9-WAR and a top-10 starter by FIP-WAR. He’s been a top-15 starter in strikeout, walk, and ground-ball rate — arguably the three most important traits for any pitcher to possess.

Nola looks like one of baseball’s best young starters and, as expected, he’s doing it without traditional front-of-the-rotation stuff; he’s still right-handed, and the fastball still barely averages 90 mph. That’s not to say he doesn’t have a plus pitch — Jeff Sullivan already called Nola’s curveball the best in baseball — but he’s not dominating hitters in the obvious, easily quantifiable way that many of today’s young flamethrowers do. He’s doing it in a more sneaky kind of way, and that adds an extra layer of intrigue to an already intriguing pitcher.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric nobleman Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Toronto at Detroit | 19:10 ET
Sanchez (72.1 IP, 79 xFIP-) vs. Boyd (16.0 IP, 93 xFIP-)
On the strength both of excellent statistical indicators and also improved arm speed, left-hander Matt Boyd finished atop the author’s arbitrarily calculated Fringe Five Scoreboard last season. Boyd’s minor-league dominance didn’t “translate seamlessly,” however, to the major leagues: over roughly 60 innings with Toronto and then Detroit, he produced an adjusted xFIP about 30% worse than league average while actually allowing runs at an even faster pace than the fielding-independent numbers would suggest. Not a classic beginning to his career, in other words. Boyd has now recorded two starts for Detroit this season, however, and the results are positive. In 11.1 innings, the 25-year-old has produced a 10:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio and overall better-than-average fielding-independent numbers. Of some note, too: 69.9% of his pitches have been strikes, the second-highest figure among pitchers to record 10-plus innings as a starter (behind only Danny Duffy).

Readers’ Preferred Television Broadcast: Detroit.

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The first read of Trevor Story’s split stats produces an easy narrative. In April, he recorded a .988 OPS due (in part) to ridiculous, unsustainable power. Since then, his OPS has been under .800, with half as many homers. The league adjusted to him, and he didn’t adjust back. Simple enough.

Of course it’s much more complicated than that in reality, at least in terms of what’s happening on the field. To the player, it’s simple.

Jeff Sullivan documented a stark adjustment that the league made to the Rockies’ shortstop after that huge first week. They stopped throwing him inside because he showed he could pull those pitches for homers.

“A lot of people don’t pitch inside, I don’t think,” said Story about that first week, framing that first week as the anomaly, which might come as a surprise. “Some teams do, and some teams don’t.”

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Remember when it was the end of spring training, and the Orioles were exploring ways to not have Hyun Soo Kim be on the roster? My computer tells me it’s June 6, and I have reason to believe my computer, and if you set a low enough minimum, Kim owns the highest wRC+ in Baltimore’s lineup. He ranks 10th in all of baseball, and though that 10th sandwiches him between Tyler Naquin and Steve Pearce — it’s early — it’s not hard to draw parallels between 2016 Kim and 2015 Jung Ho Kang. Kim presumably isn’t this good, but he’s talented, and now he’s showing that he can hold his own against big-league competition. It didn’t look like that in March, but March has lied to us before.

Let’s dig into Kim just a little bit. He’s batted 78 times, and nearly every single one of those plate appearances has come against a righty. So, that’s a factor. And he’s hit a ton of ground balls. He has one home run, but if Kim keeps putting balls on the ground, that limits his power upside, obviously. Now, Kim hasn’t chased out of the zone very much. He’s also been better than average at putting the bat on the ball. And we can address the grounders head-on. With help from Baseball Savant, naturally.

Statcast doesn’t quite record every batted ball, but it gets most of them, and Kim ranks in the 88th percentile in average batted-ball speed. That seems great, but then there’s this: Kim has hit his grounders harder. As a matter of fact, Kim leads baseball in average grounder speed. Leads baseball! Higher than 96 miles per hour. It’s good to lead in a contact metric, but then, hard grounders aren’t necessarily better than soft grounders. Generally speaking, hard contact is nearly wasted on a ground ball.

That’s the downside — Kim hits hard grounders, instead of hard flies. Now here’s the upside of that downside. Kim also has baseball’s fourth-highest average grounder launch angle. That might sound kind of funky, but Kim’s grounders so far have an average launch angle of -3.3 degrees. The league average is -9.9 degrees. So of Kim’s grounders recorded, they’ve been closer to the line between grounders and line drives. Here’s how the league has done, in batting average, by grounder launch angle:

• -5 to 0 degrees: .315 average
• -10 to -6 degrees: .200
• -15 to -11 degrees: .154
• -20 to -16 degrees: .120
• -25 to -21 degrees: .082

The closer you get to a flat exit, the more productive the batted ball. And that’s intuitive, I think, because those are the most like line drives, and defenders have the least time to react. Here’s Kim against Dellin Betances last Friday:

That was recorded as a ground ball. As a bonus, that features Kim making solid contact against elite-level velocity, but the point is that while Kim hit a grounder, he really hit more of a line-drive grounder. And there’s evidence that could be a skill of his. If this were to keep up, Kim wouldn’t hit a bunch of dingers, but he would hit liners and he’d end up with a strong average and BABIP. He’s used a lot of his hard contact on grounders, which is bad, but those grounders have almost been like liners, which is good. You understand. You’re a smart person!

Not every Kim batted ball has been recorded, but on the 15 without Statcast readings, Kim has gone 5-for-15 with two doubles, so I don’t think we’re missing a bunch of horrible contact. And data points get dropped for every hitter. We can use only what we have, and for Kim, there’s a good thing about the bad thing. And, you know, maybe in time he’ll start to elevate the ball even more. I don’t know what he’s going to do, and last year Kang hit more fly balls after April and May. If Kim puts that contact in the air, that’s great. If he stays as he is, that’s fine. Hyun Soo Kim is looking like he can cut it. Take that, March.