Ben and Sam discuss MLB’s track record with rule changes, Scott Boras’ involvement in Jose Fernandez’ pitching plans, and Robinson Cano’s contract.
Podcast (effectively-wild): Play in new window | Download
Subscribe: RSS
Ben Zobrist has been something of a polarizing figure in the game for seven years now. Ever since his 2009 breakout — where a 28 year old with -0.4 career WAR put up an +8.6 WAR season — his place among the game’s best players has been a point of discussion, with some pretty wide ranging opinions regarding his value. To the sabermetric community, he was a legitimate superstar, putting up +35 WAR over a six year stretch, coming in behind only Miguel Cabrera among position players in MLB during that time. To those who evaluate players more by their physical tools and traditional performance markers, Zobrist was a good player but an archetype of the guy overrated by FanGraphs-style analysis, with too much emphasis placed on his defense and baserunning and not enough on his moderate power.
During those six years where he graded out as an elite performer by WAR, he only made the All-Star team twice, and his only top 10 MVP finish was in 2009, the year he led the majors in WAR; he finished 8th on AL ballot that year, and his next-best MVP finish put him 16th. Zobrist is about as close to a litmus test as you’re going to find for how much emphasis someone puts on metrics versus tools.
This winter, we’re finally going to get to see how the market evaluates Zobrist’s abilities, but because he signed an extension with Tampa Bay that sold a few free agent years in exchange for some guaranteed income, we still won’t really get to find out what the market thought of peak-Zobrist. Instead, Jason Heyward is taking the role of being the defense-and-baserunning superstar this off-season, and Zobrist’s market will give us more of an idea of how teams see the late-career aging curve in the post-PED era.
Have you heard? The Hardball Times Baseball Annual 2016 is now available for sale. You can check out the table of contents and read some excerpts from the book. When you finish that you can purchase it from our independent publishing platform, Createspace, in print form, or from Amazon in print form (the Kindle version should be available later this week).
But wait, there’s more! Because we’re giving folk, and since it’s the beginning of the holiday season and all, we want to give you a chance to win yourself a free copy of the book. So today, tomorrow and Wednesday, we’ll be running a trivia contest based on one of the articles in the book. The first person to post the correct answer in the comments will win a free physical copy of the book (sorry, no free Kindle version). It’s just that simple!
Read the rest of this entry »
The Royals outperformed their preseason projections here at FanGraphs by a substantial 16 wins. The Royals also assembled one of the best defensive teams in the majors this year — and have done so for much of the recent past. Indeed, from 2011 to 2015, the Royals have produced the league’s highest UZR total (175), averaging 35 runs saved per season above average.
One area I have not seen quantified is the effect a good defense (such as that possessed by the Royals) might have when combined with a low-strikeout pitching staff. Would a good defensive team’s pitchers and defense record more outs and post lower ERAs than FIPs? Probably some, but also how much of difference would it actually make? I decided to perform a quick study to see if there was anything to my little theory.
| 11:58 |
: Welecome to the Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat, where we promise our readers that at not time during chats is Dan Szymborski naked or using the toilet.
|
| 11:59 |
What can Atlanta expect to get in return for Shelby Miller or Julio Teheran? Far-away prospects? Or possibly a young MLB bat like Joc Pederson? Thanks |
| 12:01 |
: I doubt they’ll get a Joc Pederson type (unless you’re just really down on him). Miller has more trade value right now, of course. Teheran actually makes sense to not trade unlike some others – his value right now just isn’t as high as it could be.
|
| 12:01 |
Does having your socks on count as NOT being naked?.. |
| 12:01 |
: I think it counts as naked if you could not appear on basic cable.
|
| 12:02 |
If you’re running the Cards, how do you go about adding offense? |
For the third time in four years, Mike Trout finished as a runner-up MVP. Trout had a compelling case, but Josh Donaldson was a deserving winner. Even if you think Trout should have won, you’re probably fine with Donaldson winning. More than one guy can deserve it, after all.
Regardless, the outcome of an award vote doesn’t change what Trout’s achieved through his first four seasons. And what Trout’s done through his first four seasons is unprecedented. Already, he’s arguably accomplished more than any player in history through his age-23 season. Already, he’s had a top-10 all-time four-year peak, and those are the only years we’ve seen him have. The next question, naturally, is a biggie. Don’t lie — you’ve thought about it. Even if you’re a skeptic, it’s a thought that’s crossed your mind, if even for a fleeting moment.
“What if this guy is the best that’s ever done it?”
What if? Never hurts to wonder. Could Trout be the greatest? If he ends up as the greatest, what would that even take? What would that career look like? What could that career look like?
The all-time leader in position player Wins Above Replacement, according to our leaderboards, is Babe Ruth, at 168.4 WAR. Let’s have a little fun.
Read the rest of this entry »
*EDIT: After a strong showing from internet commenters, I added a couple changes to this piece. You’ll see that Austin Riley and Kolby Allard were both added to the list, as well as some notes under Ryan Weber’s report.
I’m going to leave the overall grades the same here, though AS WITH EVERYBODY overall grades may change by the time I get to the composite prospect list. I originally wanted to put three overall grades in these reports, then thought about leaving them out entirely because of their likelihood to change, before finally settling on putting a likely future value in for some comparisons. The innernets say no. I’m new here.
I’m reserving the right to change grades as I go along, this being the first time I’ve compiled reports on a volume this scale, though I have decided to put three values in for overall grades in the future lists. This should help clear up some of the questions people have about how I can agree that pitcher Mel Clark has a high ceiling, but only makes it on the list in the 45+ section. Enjoy!
The Braves have made some headlines this year with a number of trades to bring in young talent. While the short-term picture suffers with the loss of some popular, productive players, they are setting their future up with a lot of depth in their farm system. With a few players on the verge of contributing to the big league team, the next year or two may not be as bad as it could be trading away so much present value.
The big push of prospects could come from players at A-ball Rome and below. There are a lot of interesting talents who have entered the system in the last year or two that haven’t yet revealed how high their ceilings could be. The lower-level collection of players has a lot of risk involved, but the sheer volume of players with talent should ensure the Braves will reap the benefits of the work they’ve put into the farm.
Location: Minneapolis
About Inside Edge:
Inside Edge Scouting Services specializes in data capture and analytics down to the finest details of every Major League game. Major League clubs, media, and other clients subscribe to our real-time pitch-by-pitch data, custom-tailored reports, and advanced analytic tools to gain an edge on their competition. We provide an exciting, fast-paced work environment and an opportunity to get started on a career in baseball and differentiate yourself from other job seekers. Past interns have gone on to positions with both Major League clubs and media organizations.
Description:
Candidates filling this position will gain valuable experience with technologies and processes increasing their qualifications to work in baseball and the broader sports industry. College and / or professional baseball playing experience is a plus. Hires can expect to begin training March 14, and the position will run until the end of the 2016 season. Interns will need to make a commitment to working most nights, weekends, and holidays over the course of the season.
Responsibilities:
Qualifications:
Compensation:
This position is compensated.
To Apply:
Please email Andrew Pautz.
A few days ago, the Braves traded Cameron Maybin to the Tigers for a pair of promising-but-unproven pitchers. Predictably, the deal elicited mostly angst from Atlanta fans. Not Andrelton-level angst, but enough that yet a few more foam tomahawks hit the bottoms of wastebaskets. Put another way, the camel hasn’t collapsed, but his back is starting to sag something awful.
Youth movement in full swing, veterans are packing up almost as fast as the bandwagon is emptying. NBC Hardball Talk’s Craig Calcaterra worded the exodus as such: “The last major league position player left in Atlanta, please turn out the lights.”
As for my own take on the Braves’ new world, let’s just say I’m highly intrigued. Regardless of how you define their strategy – retooling, tanking, whatever – these moves aren’t being made frivolously. Financial considerations aside, no small number of scouting and data-driven projections are driving the decisions. Read the rest of this entry »
Ladies and gentlemen, The Hardball Times Baseball Annual 2016 is now ready and waiting to be devoured. It is the 12th edition of the book.
We’ve got a great book this year, including the longest analysis section in the four years I’ve been working on the book — nearly 150 pages! It is available now for purchase direct from both Amazon, and our independent publishing platform, Createspace. It will soon be available for sale on the Kindle as well.
You can read a full breakdown of the table of contents in my post that went up moments ago at THT Live.
This book is a labor of love for us every year. The book is full of posts from our great team at The Hardball Times and here at FanGraphs — Dave Cameron, Jeff Sullivan, Eno Sarris, Carson Cistulli, August Fagerstrom, Jeff Zimmerman, Neil Weinberg, Owen Watson, Chris Mitchell and Jonah Pemstein, among others — plus special guests like Erik Malinowski, Mitchel Lichtman and Phil Birnbaum.
We hope you enjoy it!!!
