Effectively Wild Episode 765: MLB’s MBA Future
November 12, 2015
Ben and Sam talk to BP author Jeff Quinton about how baseball teams could benefit from design thinking.
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Snapshots from Boca, Part 2: Five more GMs Speak
The General Managers meetings continued today, and I once again had an opportunity to speak to several of them. You’ll hear from some of the GMs in detail over the coming week, beginning with Seattle’s Jerry Dipoto tomorrow. In the meantime, I’ll follow up on yesterday’s five snapshots with five more:
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Al Avila, Tigers: “There’s the addition of our new analytics department that we’re in the process of creating. That will help us make some decisions in a different manner. It’s not going to be huge, like 20 people, or anything like that. Right now, it will probably be three guys in the office, and a couple of consultants outside of the office, with the addition of some interns.”
Mike Chernoff, Indians: “It’s by no means a given that we’ll trade a starter. It’s a strength of our club, so we get asked about it a lot. Teams see the depth there, and we’re in a fortunate position to have that depth. But we want to build around it. We’re not looking to move major league pieces.
“Because we’re a small market club, we have to be creative and opportunistic in how we think about trades, and how we think about balancing out our team. So we’re always open to anything, but we’re not coming in here looking to move a pitcher.”
Rick Hahn, White Sox: “As for what mechanisms we use to evaluate our defensive performance, it’s all factored in there. Fundamentally, you go back to what your eyes are showing you. At the same time, we’re very well aware of what the objective data is showing, whether it’s from a Defensive Runs Saved standpoint, or a conversion-of-balls-in-play-into-outs standpoint. We also look at the more advanced, and the recent StatCast data. All of those arrows are pointing in the same direction; they’re all giving the same consistent message: Our defense was not at the level we needed it to be.”
Dave Stewart, Diamondbacks: “I don’t think anybody has a blueprint. I’ve been a part of some good staffs, but to say you have a blueprint for build a pitching staff, I don’t think there’s such a thing.
“Right now, we have a nice young pitching staff, and ideally you’d like to complement those guys with similar guys. At the same point, when you’re young and you don’t really have leadership, sometimes you want to look for a guy that’s a little more of a veteran. You want somebody who can put his hand print, and his foot print, on these guys to show them how to get the job done.”
Dick Williams, Reds: “I’ll just say that I’m really impressed by his understanding of his game. A lot has been made of how much Joey (Votto) understands advanced statistics. But I don’t think people should forget how much time he spends working on his baseball. Apart from the theories, he’s as diligent as anyone I know when it comes to finding flaws, and fixing them mechanically.”
Three Keys to Understanding Aaron Hicks
You’re forgiven if you don’t much care about Wednesday’s swap of Aaron Hicks for JR Murphy. Maybe you’re not a fan of the Twins or the Yankees. Maybe you’re not a fan of baseball at all, and you somehow wound up here by accident. Or maybe you are a fan of the Twins or the Yankees, but you recognize this as a trade featuring two players with less than 2 combined WAR over more than 1,200 plate appearances. Hicks has been probably the more hyped of the two, but Murphy is the younger of the two, and he seems like a backup. This isn’t on the level of Brad Miller and Nate Karns, and even that wasn’t on the level of something truly big.
These are the moves we have available to discuss, though, and if you want to speak generally, every professional baseball player has a compelling story. They’re all tremendously talented, and they’ve all dreamed of big-league success. If you want to speak specifically, Hicks is interesting, and I’d rate his level of interest above-average. He’s a former top prospect who’s trying to recover from initial struggles, and the most recent year saw him take a step forward. As far as this trade is concerned, it’s important to understand 2015 Aaron Hicks, and what follows are three keys to fully grasping the Hicks campaign. What he was in 2014, he wasn’t this summer.
National League Payroll Situations Ahead of Free Agency
November 11, 2015
In meeting with the press recently, Rob Manfred mentioned a “fun fact” that the small-market Kansas City Royals boasted a bigger payroll than the big-market New York Mets. That fact might not be quite as fun for Mets fans who want their club to spend “commensurate with the economic resources available to them,” to use the commissioner’s words. With increased revenue from higher attendance, a playoff run, and rising projected attendance in 2016, the Mets could be poised to increase attendance, but if they choose to keep the status quo with salaries, they might not have a lot of maneuverability in free agency this winter.
Earlier this week, I took a look at all the American League teams and their current payroll situations as we head into free agency. This post repeats the same exercise for those teams in the National League. When determining a team’s payroll, first we need to look at every team’s guarantees heading into the 2016 season. To nobody’s surprise, the Dodgers have a commanding lead, per Cot’s Contracts.
Yankees Acquire Aaron Hicks, A Potential Bargain
While it’s not going down as any kind of blockbuster, the Twins and Yankees struck a deal today, with Minnesota sending outfielder Aaron Hicks to the Yankees for catcher JR Murphy.
Hicks, a former highly though of prospect, finally showed some signs of life in 2015, putting up +1.5 WAR in 97 games after getting called back up from Triple-A. The improvement primarily came from his ability to avoid strikeouts, which looks to be potentially caused by a new-found willingness to swing at pitches in the strike zone; his in-zone swing rate jumped to 66%, significantly higher than it had been in his first two runs through the big leagues. With enough power to not just be a slap hitter and a good enough eye to draw some walks, Hicks profiles as something like a league average hitter going forward; Steamer projects him for a 99 wRC+ in 2016.
With some baserunning value and decent enough defense in center field, that makes Hicks a potentially interesting piece. In fact, if you look at the Steamer600 projections, where playing time is equalized for all players, you’ll note that Hicks looks like the kind of outfielder the Yankees have shown affinity for.
An Early Preview of MLB’s 2016 CBA Negotiations: Part II
This is the second piece in a two-part series previewing the upcoming 2016 collective bargaining negotiations between Major League Baseball and the Major League Baseball Players Association. Part I of the series examined the new leadership dynamic at MLB and the MLBPA, various economic issues (including the players’ declining share of league revenues, the qualifying offer system, and service time manipulation), and possible changes to the league’s Joint Drug Agreement.
In this post, I will be looking at bargaining issues related to the draft (international and domestic), along with various pace-of-play and scheduling issues, before offering a preliminary assessment of the likelihood that a work stoppage will impact the 2017 season.
International Draft
Since taking office, Rob Manfred has repeatedly suggested that one of his top priorities as commissioner is to implement a worldwide MLB draft, in one form or another (whether it be holding a single draft for all domestic and international prospects, or alternatively creating a separate draft for international players). As a result, one can safely assume that reaching an agreement on a “single method of entry into the game” – as Manfred likes to say – will undoubtedly be a top priority for MLB in the coming negotiations.
It is unclear whether the MLBPA will be willing to agree to subject international players to a draft, however. Read the rest of this entry »
If Relegation Existed in Baseball
November 11, 2015
Despite producing the same winning percentage as Colorado, Milwaukee and Oakland survive on run differential.
Effectively Wild Episode 764: Award Apathy and Splashy Stats
November 11, 2015
Ben and Sam banter about daily-fantasy ads, then answer listener emails about Barry Bonds and splash hits, end-of-season awards, when to spend on free agents, baseball and the metric system, and more.
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The American League’s Weakest Positions
The most prevalent questions in our weekly chats this time of year are “What areas should [insert favorite team here] be looking to address this offseason?” and “Who should they target to fix them?” People really like to predict the offseason, which is an impossible thing to predict.
We can’t anticipate trades or say with any confidence where free agents will land, but we can figure out who needs a boost the most. Using our team depth charts, powered by the 2016 Steamer projections, we can pretty quickly calculate current league WAR averages and z-scores for each team by position to get a sense of which positions need the most help. So, before free agency really gets underway, let’s do just that. The American League version is what you’re reading now, and the National League edition will follow this one, tomorrow.
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Honorable mentions: Orioles LF, Royals RF, Orioles RF, Angels rotation, Orioles 1B, Red Sox bullpen, White Sox SS, White Sox 2B, Tigers rotation, Mariners catcher.
#10 Angels – LF
| Name | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | Bat | BsR | Fld | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Collin Cowgill | 350 | .239 | .297 | .348 | .285 | -7.0 | 0.5 | 2.2 | 0.4 |
| Todd Cunningham | 315 | .251 | .301 | .339 | .282 | -7.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Efren Navarro | 35 | .252 | .309 | .339 | .285 | -0.7 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Total | 700 | .245 | .300 | .344 | .284 | -14.7 | 0.5 | 2.3 | 0.4 |
And to think, it was just a couple months ago when the Angels had enough left fielders for the entire American League West. Matt Joyce, Shane Victorino, David Murphy and David DeJesus are all free agents now, though, and the Angels are left with a gaping hole that will clearly be filled before the offseason is over.
JABO: $20 Million Isn’t What It Used To Be
With free agency now officially underway, we’ve reached the point in the off-season where baseball scribes roll out our annual warning to Major League teams: DON’T DO IT! The history of the $100 million contract is served up as a reminder that these mega-contracts have often turned out poorly, with names like Mike Hampton and Carl Crawford trotted out as reminders that big pricey off-season additions don’t come with any kind of guarantee of success. Because most free agents reach the open market around (or after) their 30th birthday, teams are often signing players whose best days are behind them, and end up paying big money to players who are in decline before they even put their new uniforms on.
The newest entry in the annual reminder of big contract risk comes from Will Leitch over at Sports on Earth. In his piece on Tuesday, Leitch notes that players who have been paid an annual average value of $20 million or more during their long-term deals have fared particularly poorly of late.
That is the dirty secret of every free-agent season: Almost every long-term deal that will be signed will be bad. In FanGraphs’ rankings over the summer of the worst five contracts, all five were massive free agency “victories” for the team that signed them, all within the past three years. These deals are terrible business. I know this is exciting. I know we can’t wait to talk about them all. I know some long-term deals even work out (though the only one immediately coming to mind is Matt Holliday). There are 34 players — not counting the free agents signing new deals — who will be making $20 million or more in 2016. The majority of them will absolutely not be worth it.
Leitch goes on to note that just eight of the 34 players scheduled to make $20+ million next year are “boons” to their franchise, while another eight are “up in the air”, leaving 16 as “drains”, including several players who might not even have jobs next year if it weren’t for their guaranteed contracts. It’s unquestionably true that a lot of these major signings in recent years have gone poorly, and undoubtedly, many of the teams who will be celebrating their new acquisitions over the next few months will end up wishing they’d been outbid instead.
But while I agree with Leitch’s overarching point about free agency being an inefficient way to build a roster, I think there are a couple of reasonable counters to his claims. Let’s attempt them.