FanGraphs Baseball

Ask a current major league batter about his two strike approach. Watch the words stop coming out of their mouth.

About twenty minutes into a long conversation with Josh Donaldson about his approach to swinging the bat, we got to what he can do to deal with the low and away pitch in counts where he has to protect. I didn’t realize it, but I’d asked for his two-strike approach. “I don’t really want to get too in depth into that,” he said, shutting off the inquiry.

Brandon Moss, the most loquacious of interviews, just laughed when I asked him about how his approach changed. Quickly, I learned not to talk about it.

But it was still out there. And when Paul Konerko told me (during another long conversation about hitting) that he felt like a strikeout was a weakness, my ears perked up. He’d tell me about his two-strike approach. He wasn’t in the league any more.

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Last season, Billy Butler ran into 10 outs. If you didn’t know that before, you definitely know that now. And if you’re anything like me, now that you know that, you want to know what happened. Boy have I got the post for you. It’s this post!

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It wasn’t that long ago that left field was a bastion for sluggers. The position used to be the last refuge for lumbering players who couldn’t find playing time at first base or designated hitter, but things have changed in recent years, opening up left field to a number of well-rounded and glove-first performers. Below we’ll review them all, team by team, in keeping with our positional power ranking ways.

If you wanted to characterize the state of the position, you might lead with the well-rounded players who occupy it, but also the fact that there are very few great left fielders. No team’s left field unit projects for more than 4.0 WAR, joining only second base and DH as positions with such low projections for the top spot. On top of that, there project to be many poor left field units, as no other position comes close to the ten teams which project to produce less than 1.0 WAR at the spot.

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Ben and Sam preview Boston’s season with Providence Journal Red Sox beat writer Brian MacPherson, and George talks to Brian’s ProJo colleague, Tim Britton (at 28:41).

I remember writing an article a few years ago about Michael Bourn. The article was built around something I’d seen on the ESPN Home Run Tracker. I didn’t think of Bourn as being a strong hitter. You don’t think of Bourn as being a strong hitter. I imagine Bourn doesn’t even think of himself as being a strong hitter. But he hit this one home run, off Jeff Suppan in April 2009. According to the website, the homer went 457 feet, which is 31 feet longer than any other Bourn homer in his big-league career. The way I interpreted that, it hinted at Bourn’s absolute power ceiling. He doesn’t spend a lot of time around his ceiling, of course, but you can’t really fake such a big dinger. It was interesting to me, at least — interesting enough that I haven’t forgotten about it.

I was reminded of that research and article by something Peter O’Brien just did.

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EVALUATING THE PROSPECTS 2016 Angels Astros Athletics Blue Jays Braves Brewers Cardinals Cubs Diamondbacks Dodgers Giants Indians Mariners Marlins Mets Nationals Orioles Padres Phillies Pirates Rangers Rays Red Sox Reds Rockies Royals Tigers Twins White Sox Yankees

I’d say there are some surprises in the rankings here, but if you’ve been following the Giants’ player development successes the last few years, everything’s a surprise. They have found a niche that they have doubled down on in recent years of acquiring guys who are baseball players first and toolsy showcase darlings second, if at all. It’s hard to argue with anything they’ve done for a while now, as they continue to be a consistent winner despite changing expectations every season.

This system is really exciting for how many of the under-the-radar players I think can actually end up being solid major leaguers. Having Christian Arroyo as your top prospect isn’t exciting, but it becomes all the more gratifying if and when he becomes a major contributor to the parent club in a couple years. The same goes with a lot of the lesser-known pitchers who don’t have big velocity, yet are mowing right through the minor leagues on the way to a shot at cracking the Giants’ rotation. For evaluation’s sake, I really am intrigued by their collection of guys, both because of the collective thought that obviously went into its formation, and because I do genuinely like a good number of their chances going forward.

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EVALUATING THE PROSPECTS 2016 Angels Astros Athletics Blue Jays Braves Brewers Cardinals Cubs Diamondbacks Dodgers Giants Indians Mariners Marlins Mets Nationals Orioles Padres Phillies Pirates Rangers Rays Red Sox Reds Rockies Royals Tigers Twins White Sox Yankees

The Padres took something that was a tremendous weakness after last offseason’s trade and spending spree, and turned it into a system that can start feeding the next competitive team in San Diego. There isn’t a ton of depth or more than a few high-probability prospects, but there is some upside to which Padres fans can look forward. The Craig Kimbrel trade was a big win, almost enough to wipe away the flop that was the 2015 season (of course, not really).

Two of the prospects that came over in that trade jump right into the 50+ FV group. Everyone agrees Manuel Margot is a legitimate prospect, but I’m a little lower on Javier Guerra, and Carlos Asuaje for that matter. Logan Allen is actually the prospect I’m picking to be the second-best prospect coming out of that deal. Guerra’s power potential isn’t a sure thing in my view, while Allen has the potential to move very quickly despite having been a prep pick just last June.

After last year’s dramatic improvements, I’m buying high on Colin Rea, believing the pitch mix and excellent command keeps him in the rotation for the foreseeable future. Also on this list, I make the case for why Travis Jankowski shouldn’t be dismissed as a fourth outfielder yet, while also acknowledging how much risk there is in Ruddy Giron’s future.

The depth of this system is really in the Quick Hits group. There were probably another 10-15 names I could justify putting there, but I wanted to stay focused on some of the more interesting ones. Their exclusion was less about not believing in their ceilings and more about an attempt to be concise about the prospects I wanted to highlight. It’s not as exciting of an area in which to possess depth, but there are quite a few players that could step up and appear on this list by midseason.

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It’s that time of year again, everyone. Read the introductory post detailing what this is all about if this is your first rodeo. If this is not your first rodeo, welcome back! Here’s a graph of projected WAR for third basemen this year — you’ll note that there are no teams with negative WAR, which makes me feel like I’ve won some sort of Positional Power Rankings lottery.

Now, onto the ranks of the hot corner, and the listing of a legion of men who field bunts and throw off balance across the diamond. It’s a three-team party at the top, folks, with Toronto, Baltimore, and Chicago (NL) leading the charge. There’s been some talent drain at the position compared to this time last year, as Ryan Zimmerman (now a first baseman) and Evan Longoria have been left off/downgraded due to a pair of rough campaigns. Still, third base remains one of the most exciting positions on the diamond, as a glut of elite, young talent and a 2015 American League Most Valuable Player count themselves among the ranks. Indeed, it is also one of the most talented positions, as four of the top 20 position players by projected 2016 WAR are third basemen. Now, onto the specifics! Read the rest of this entry »

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Chris Davis earned a seven-year, $161 million contract with the Orioles this offseason. Khris Davis was traded to the A’s for a couple low-minors prospects. Chris Davis is a lefty, and plays first base. Khris Davis is a righty, and plays the outfield. Chris Davis has been the best power hitter in baseball. Over the last three years, his .292 isolated slugging percentage is nearly 20 points higher than the next guy, and he’s got 15 homers over runner-up Nelson Cruz. Khris Davis has been a tantalizing, yet in many ways still flawed player whose shine has somewhat faded after an explosive debut with Milwaukee in 2013.

Yet even with those flaws, namely struggles with contact ability and plate discipline, one might be surprised to learn that Davis — sorry, Khris — has also been one of the league’s most prodigious power hitters, with an ISO that ranks in the top 10 since 2013. Since Khris came on the scene, he’s hit for more power than Bryce Harper, Miguel Cabrera and Jose Abreu. Granted, injuries, defensive shortcomings and his one-dimensional nature at the plate have limited his playing time, so perhaps his power output isn’t quite as impressive as his slugging peers who have done it for longer, but he’s now batted more than 1,100 times and done so with an ISO that’s indistinguishable from Paul Goldschmidt’s. The power is real, and just last year, he took a step forward in one promising area to put his name alongside the game’s premier power hitter, the Chris with a C.

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