FanGraphs Audio: Dave Cameron Analyzes All Coin-Flipping

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September 30, 2015

Episode 599
Dave Cameron is both (a) the managing editor of FanGraphs and (b) the guest on this particular edition of FanGraphs Audio, during which edition he participates in an inquisitive but largely unscientific conversation regarding the Bryce Harper–Jonathan Papelbon contretemps, confirms that the Mets are scary but not also spooky, and (finally) attempts to explain why professional coin-tossing would make for an utter failure as a spectator sport.

This edition of the program is sponsored by Draft, the first truly mobile fantasy sports app. Compete directly against idiot host Carson Cistulli by clicking here.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 46 min play time.)

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Effectively Wild Episode 735: Podcast Court is in Session

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September 30, 2015

Ben and Sam banter about Mike Trout’s punctuation, then answer listener emails about the fastest fastball, pennant-race anxiety, Rich Hil, shortstop studs, and a fantasy-league dilemma.

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FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 9/29/15

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September 29, 2015
5:41
Paul Swydan: Hi everybody! We’re one week closer to the postseason! That excites me greatly. Come chat with me (and possibly Jeff) at 9 pm ET and you’ll see just how excited! Well, in theory. We’re hosting a playdate in a little while, so I may be exhausted by the time 9 rolls around. And then I might say something foolish. So, really, it’s a win-win for you!

See you soon!
9:02
Paul Swydan: OK, let’s do this. Jeff might pop in later, but for now you’re stuck with me.
9:02
Comment From Nolan
Is the Shin Soo Choo deal going to be one of those contracts where our perceptions are poisoned by the first year of the deal? Choo has been well worth his salary this year, and the rest of the contract looks much better than it did after the 2014 season. It seems like this could be similar to the Werth or Soriano deals, insofar as it ends up being much better for the team than the first year would suggest.

9:04
Paul Swydan: You know, I want to choo-choo-choose him. But I think it’ll still look like an albatross. The bottom line is that you need the first three years to be very good values to balance the scales. That last year was a disaster makes it really difficult for it to be a good contract in the long run.
9:04
Comment From Noah
Is it just me or did an article just disappear from FanGraphs? I was just reading an article about the difference between the projections being flat out wrong (the Mets) and the projections not anticipating sequencing (the Twins). Now it’s gone! What happened?

9:05
Paul Swydan: Every once in awhile, we slip and accidentally publish an article that is either not finished yet or scheduled for the next day. Entirely possible that that just happened.

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Hendricks First Ivy Leaguer in Years to Produce Three Wins

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September 29, 2015


The last pitch of Kyle Hendricks’ nine-strikeout appearance on Monday.

This past spring, the author published a three–part series in these electronic pages with a view towards examining the amateur origins of baseball’s good players — where “good” was defined by the half-arbitrary threshold of three wins in a given season. The results of the study suggest that — over the five years in question, at least — that a number of junior-college players outperform the win totals expected from their draft slots; that second basemen go to college, but shortstops not so much; and that three-dimensional pie charts are unambiguously cherished by all readers of this site.

Another revelation facilitated by the research: zero players drafted from an Ivy League school produced a 3.0 WAR or higher between the years 2010 and -14.

The point is noteworthy today because, if extended through the year 2015, the study would now include an Ivy Leaguer. On the strength of a nine-strikeout performance against Kansas City last night, Cubs right-hander and Dartmouth College product Kyle Hendricks has now recorded 3.1 WAR over 31 starts and 174.0 innings this year.

There are multiple caveats which accompany this observation, of course. For one, the three-win threshold is necessarily arbitrary. And two, the WAR being considered here is the sort based only on fielding-independent pitching and not on runs allowed. Using the latter input instead, Hendricks has produced only about two wins of value this year. Still, the point remains that one of the schools responsible for providing a lot of the front-office talent in the game is responsible, in the case of Hendricks, for providing on-field talent, as well.


A First for Brian Dozier’s Career

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September 29, 2015

A few weekends ago, I wrote myself a note, reading “Jose Bautista — oppo.” I watched Bautista hit a home run to right field in Yankee Stadium, and I figured that might be the sort of thing worthy of a post. Bautista generally clobbers his dingers to left, and I thought maybe there could be something there. I thought also that maybe, just maybe, Bautista had a history of going out to right field in New York, which has maybe the most forgiving right field in baseball. Ultimately, I didn’t do anything. I mean, I eventually did some research and played with some numbers, but I didn’t have enough for a post. Not a post that anyone would care about.

Stupid me — I was watching the wrong player. Genius me — I at least had a decent general idea. Rare opposite-field home runs? Potentially interesting. And while I didn’t get enough of interest on Bautista, it wasn’t much later that Brian Dozier pulled off a career first. I have to apologize for the lack of timeliness; this is a post about an event from last Wednesday. I don’t know why I didn’t notice sooner. But last Wednesday, facing Corey Kluber of all people, Brian Dozier stepped in and, in a 2-and-1 count, hit a home run down the right-field line.

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The Cubs Have a #3 Starter

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September 29, 2015

The way Jake Arrieta has thrown the ball this year — especially in the second half — has ended any discussion about who the Cubs #1 starter is. Arrieta has propelled himself into the discussion of true aces, and he’ll be the guy the Cubs put on the hill with their season on the line next Wednesday. With Jon Lester slotting in to the #2 spot, the Cubs top two starters should be able to hold their own against any other staff in baseball.

After that, though, things get a little more interesting. When asked who his third starter in the postseason might be, Joe Maddon stated simply “I don’t know.” Jason Hammel began the year as the team’s third starter, and his overall numbers are quite good for a middle-of-the-rotation guy, but those numbers are based on an excellent first half and a pretty lousy second half. Prior to the All-Star break, opposing hitters posted just a .261 wOBA against Hammel, but since the break, they’ve put up a .371 mark against him. The problems may be tied to a hamstring injury that landed him on the DL in July, and unless he really shows them something in the last week of the season, it’s not clear that the Cubs can trust that he’s healthy enough to be effective in high-leverage postseason innings.

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The AL Cy Young Discussion

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September 29, 2015

Last week, I addressed the Cy Young battle in the senior circuit and titled it “The NL Cy Young Showdown.” This time, it’s the AL’s turn — and “discussion” (as opposed to “showdown”) seems to be the proper way to characterize it. It’s been a low-key pitching season, comparatively, in the AL, with no one posting an ERA near Zack Greinke‘s, or pitching no-hitters or engaging in zany second-half shenanigans like Jake Arrieta. In fact, a general consensus seems to be building that the award is David Price’s to lose. Today, let’s have a full discussion, including utilization of batted-ball data, about the AL Cy Young and its three likely frontrunners, Price, Chris Sale and Dallas Keuchel.

Price, who turned 30 in late August, is the only one of the three with a Cy (2012) on his mantle, though he hasn’t finished above sixth in the annual voting since then. Sale has come progressively closer in the voting, checking in at sixth, fifth and third in the last three seasons, while this will be the first time on a ballot for Keuchel, 2015’s foremost pitching breakthrough.

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Kiley McDaniel Prospects Chat – 9/29/15

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September 29, 2015
11:57

Kiley McDaniel: Giving you guys a minute to get some questions in before I start my yapping
12:05
Comment From Some Guy
What are you hearing about the teenage Cuban defector “Lazarito” that’s currently training in Haiti?
12:06

Kiley McDaniel: Fitting to start with one of the two buzziest topics among scouts right now. The hype on this kid is already pretty heavy and many heavy hitters haven’t really seen him before. I was going to write something about him this week, but it wouldn’t have too much hard info, so I figured it may be better for the chat.
12:12

Kiley McDaniel: So he’s a 16 year old Cuban named Lazaro Armenteros that defected. He’s about to start open workouts and I’ve talked to some scouts that saw him in int’l tourneys and one guy that saw him working out for smaller groups of scouts in the Caribbean recently.

He’s a built 6’2/205 with some projection, 65-70 speed, at least plus raw power and at least a plus arm, with the grades varying a bit on each of those grades given the incomplete looks and an age where things are still improving, but the lowest I’m hearing so far on those tools is 60. It’s a CF/RF fit, though he’s played some 1B/3B. You can see why Yasiel Puig is a common name mentioned as a similar player.

He’s more physically developed that almost all the recent big July 2 names you’d ask me to compare him to and the guys I talked to said he isn’t a tools goof with no feel, he’s actually got some instincts.

You can try to triangulate this and you end up in the Yoan Moncada type territory ($31.5M bonus from BOS that came with $31.5M penalty and two-year sanctions on signings over $300K) pretty quickly. Hard to say for sure if it’ll be above or below that, but everyone I’ve talked to said it will be huge money.

Way too early to know a team to project, but I’ve said many times that all the top Cubans this period will be tied to the Dodgers by default since they have limitless amounts of money and are going over during this period…which was a direct result of passing on Moncada late last period to instead go over for more than just one player. There’s a number of other Cubans that would be $5M+ types and would be pool-eligible once they get cleared to sign…so the Dodgers may finally find their financial limits in this market, but not without getting plenty of talent first.
12:16
Comment From Blaine
Wanted to thank you for the top notch content. You do a great job! I was just wondering what upside do you see in Blake Rutherford? How far is he from. Superstar draft prospect, 60 FV? And as a Braves fan, I see the Phils going with an arm at 1, do you think the Braves are in on Rutherford?
12:19

Kiley McDaniel: And now to the other topic getting buzz in scouting circles right now. I’m in the final stages of wrapping up my calls/emails on the draft list and there’s been some shuffling from the off-the-cuff names I’ve been mentioning recently in chats/twitter.

Rutherford has slipped a few spots but is still in the top tier of players, which is probably 6-7 names. He’s the oldest of the top prep prospects and is a tweener defensively without much physical projection. So, while the now ability is really good, he still projects and a top 10 pick, and he may have looked the best over the summer of this group, you can see why some scouts may downgrade him a bit when projecting into the future.

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Gerrit Cole Is Now the Most Important Pirate

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September 29, 2015

Gerrit Cole might not be the best player on the Pittsburgh Pirates — Andrew McCutchen probably still holds that distinction — but over the course of the next 10 days, perhaps no pitcher in the National League, or perhaps in Major League Baseball, will have a greater impact on his team’s season. Cole has slid under the radar of the Cy Young race as Clayton Kershaw, Jake Arrieta, and Zack Greinke are all having historically good seasons. While Cole is a bit behind that NL pitching triumvirate, his 2.60 FIP is third in MLB behind only Kershaw and Arrieta. His nearly identical 2.61 ERA is sixth, behind the above three, as well as Dallas Keuchel and David Price. Cole has already pitched some important games down the stretch this season, but how he pitches in the near future could frame how many people view the Pirates’ season as they head to the playoffs for the third straight year.

Cole has pitched very well as the regular season comes to a close. Over his last four starts, he has faced only playoff teams in the Chicago Cubs (twice), the St. Louis Cardinals and the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Pirates have won all four of Cole’s starts, during which time he’s recorded a 32:5 strikeout-to-walk ratio and allowed just one home run over 27.1 innings, good for a 2.30 ERA and 1.94 FIP. The starts against division rival were of particular importance. One September 6, the Pirates trailed the Cardinals by 6.5 games. A loss at that time would have put the team 7.5 games back, making their shot at a divisional comeback almost impossible. The win also kept the Pirates three games ahead of the Cubs. His next start, against those same Cubs, lengthened the lead for home-field advantage to five games and briefly put them within two games of the Cardinals.

Cole just recently turned 25 years old, and in his age-24 season, he has been one of the best in recent history at his age. Among qualified pitchers 24 and under, Cole’s 5.5 WAR is the best such figure, a full two wins better than Carlos Martinez’s mark. Since 2010, the only pitchers 24 and under with a season exceeding Cole’s current 5.5 fWAR are Clayton Kershaw (twice), Matt Harvey and Felix Hernandez.

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NERD Game Scores for Tuesday, September 29, 2015

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September 29, 2015

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

***

Most Highly Rated Game
Detroit at Texas | 20:05 ET
Norris (53.1 IP, 113 xFIP-) vs. Hamels (197.1 IP, 86 xFIP-)
With the loss on Monday by Texas — plus the wins by Houston and Los Angeles — the latter two clubs trail the Rangers by only 1.5 and 2.0 games, respectively, now and all three clubs still possess at least a 15% probability of claiming the division despite the fact that the season is a mere six games from completion. It’s unlikely, the entire scenario — although not so unlikely that one is compelled to announce, while throwing his hands in the air, “You couldn’t make this stuff up!” Gabriel García Márquez, for example, could’ve probably made this stuff up pretty easily were he still alive. Also, so could probably most little brothers, given an afternoon to really explore the space.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Texas Radio.

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