Just minutes before the non-waiver trade deadline, the Mets finally landed the offensive spark plug they were looking for. They swung a deal for outfielder Yoenis Cespedes from the Detroit Tigers in exchange for pitching prospects Michael Fulmer and Luis Cessa. Here’s what my fancy computer math has to say about these two minor league hurlers and their respective big league futures. Read the rest of this entry »
The Pirates seem to be perennial buyers at the trade deadline, and though there’s often pressure on the team to make the big move for an ace or a big first baseman, they usually make smaller moves that cost them less. So, in getting reliever Joakim Soria for infielder JaCoby Jones, lefty starter J.A. Happ from the Mariners for Adrian Sampson, and Michael Morse from the Dodgers for Jose Tabata, they spent this year’s trade deadline doing exactly what they’ve done in the past: working around the edges, making neat little moves.
At the winter meetings last year, there were so many concurrent trades that I literally couldn’t finish typing the news to one post before I had to start on the next, and finally, I just gave up and created an omnibus post for all the trade announcements at one time. Given that there are still a good number of potential deals on the table for today, I’m going to follow the same strategy today, but get a jump on things, putting the catch-all post up early, so we can use this to put up tidbits of deals as they come out. We’ll be continually updating this post, mostly with things from various Twitter feeds, throughout the day, and will be writing longer reactions to the trades after they happen.
Below, you’ll find a running list of “rumored deals.” Once they turn from rumor into deal, they will go to the bottom of the page, under “done deals.” The “rumored deals” will be updated with the most recent rumor moving to the top of the block. Got it? Good, keep it.
More on #Dodgers/Wood: Was NOT discussed with #Cubs. #Indians inquired on him in bigger deal.
— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) July 31, 2015
Hearing #Dodgers are talking about moving Alex Wood to #Cubs
— Joel Sherman (@Joelsherman1) July 31, 2015
The #Dbacks say their talks with #Reds for Chapman now completely dead. Here come the #Astros
— Bob Nightengale (@BNightengale) July 31, 2015
Source: #Astros continue to discuss Chapman with #Reds. Possibility mentioned by @JonHeymanCBS.
— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) July 31, 2015
On #DBacks’ interest in Chapman: Told that La Russa wants him badly. Said last night: AZ would get him with idea of extending his deal.
— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) July 31, 2015
The #Reds now have stronger offers for Chapman and the #Dbacks now considered a long shot for the closer.
— Bob Nightengale (@BNightengale) July 31, 2015
Hearing there was never any talk of three-way trade between #RedSox, Cubs, Padres. No doubt all three teams talking to each other, though.
— Scott Lauber (@ScottLauber) July 31, 2015
There is some speculation within the industry about a possible BOS/Cubs/Padres three-way blockbuster taking shape. Lots of pieces that fit.
— Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) July 31, 2015
More on Kimbrel: Now told #Yankees’ talks for him broke down yesterday and have not revived today. #Marlins’ Capps an option, as others say.
— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) July 31, 2015
The #Redsox also like Tyson Ross a lot, says source. They’ve been operating “very quietly” in trade talks for pitching.
— Jerry Crasnick (@jcrasnick) July 31, 2015
Sources: #Cubs among teams engaged in ongoing dialogue with #Indians about deal for Carrasco. Teams continuing to call CLE, make offers.
— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) July 31, 2015
Source: #Mets get Cespedes. Bruce Levine first.
— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) July 31, 2015
Source says Cespedes has been dealt to the Mets .
— Bruce Levine (@MLBBruceLevine) July 31, 2015
#Mets are talking on Cespedes, which also is U-turn. His low OBP they initially thought was bad mix for team-wide problem in that area
— Joel Sherman (@Joelsherman1) July 31, 2015
Outfielders who are or could be in play for #Mets: Bruce, Cespedes, R. Davis, Venable. Cuddyer may not be back. Questions about Lagares.
— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) July 31, 2015
#Mets and #Reds doing due diligence on Zack Wheeler and Jay Bruce. Pretty far along. Don’t know if another player would be involved.
— Adam Rubin (@AdamRubinESPN) July 31, 2015
Sources: #Mets worked into night on trade for #Reds’ Bruce. Expectation among many in industry is that deal will happen.
— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) July 31, 2015
#Athletics acquire LHP Felix Doubront from Toronto for cash considerations
— Oakland Athletics (@Athletics) July 31, 2015
Twins will send Rays Chin-Wei Hu and Alexis Tapia
— LaVelle E. Neal III (@LaVelleNeal) July 31, 2015
#Rays get back two minor league pitchers for Jepsen
— Marc Topkin (@TBTimes_Rays) July 31, 2015
Hearing the Phillies will get pair of pitchers, Jimmy Cordero and Alberto Tirado, for Ben Revere in TOR deal
— Jim Salisbury (@JSalisburyCSN) July 31, 2015
Confirming what others have reported: Revere deal between #Phillies and #BlueJays agreed upon. Teams just reviewing medicals.
— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) July 31, 2015
Ben Revere will be traded to Blue Jays. @JSalisburyCSN first had Totonto's interest in Revere.
— Todd Zolecki (@ToddZolecki) July 31, 2015
RHP Ivan Pineyro main return from Cubs to Marlins for Dan Haren. Other is Elliot Soto, a soft-hitting 25-year-old at AA. Just depth pieces.
— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) July 31, 2015
Source: Haren to Cubs from Marlins.
— Gordon Wittenmyer (@GDubCub) July 31, 2015
#BlueJays make it official, Mark Lowe to Toronto. Nick Wells, Jacob Brentz and Rob Rasmussen to Seattle.
— Gregor Chisholm (@gregorMLB) July 31, 2015
Source: Mariners trade Mark Lowe to Blue Jays. @JonHeymanCBS said close.
— Chris Cotillo (@ChrisCotillo) July 31, 2015
Source: #STLCards acquire Jonathan Broxton from #Brewers.
— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) July 31, 2015
Source says pending physicals Os will have their outfielder Gerardo Parra for 22 yo Zach Davies — Dan Connolly (@danconnollysun) July 31, 2015
On the back of a terrific young rotation, the Mets are contender-ish this year, and so for the last few months, there has been a steadily increasing cry to improve the team’s feeble offense. After all, the Mets position players are 27th in wRC+, and even after acquiring Juan Uribe and Kelly Johnson, this was an offense that didn’t really inspire much confidence. And so, the Mets have been looking for a slugger they can stick behind (or maybe in front of) Lucas Duda, and after walking away from Carlos Gomez on Wendesday night, they’ve reportedly landed Yoenis Cespedes right before the deadline.
The cost was a couple of solid but not spectacular prospects. Michael Fulmer is the headliner in the deal, and while Kiley McDaniel gave him a 45 FV grade before the season, he told me he’d bump him up to a 50 based on the improved slider and command he’s shown this year. Still, it’s mostly a toss-up whether he’s a starter or a reliever, and he’s sticking with his Joba Chamberlain comparison, so this isn’t exactly a premium pitching prospect that the Mets just surrendered. Luis Cessa, the second prospect, is more of just an arm-strength guy with average secondary stuff; Kiley mentioned he’s still a 40 FV and compared him to the pitching prospects the team gave up to get Uribe and Johnson last week.
The big concession here is that they only control Cespedes through the end of the season, as he’s not the multi-year player they were looking for earlier. After the Gomez deal fell apart, and they apparently decided not to meet the Reds asking price for Jay Bruce, rentals were really the only options on the table, so at least they got the best rental position player left. Cespedes is currently in the midst of the best season of his career, already putting up +4.2 WAR in the first 100 games of the year, though he shouldn’t be expected to keep playing at that level; the Mets are probably buying about +1.5 WAR over the remainder of the season.
In fact, for all the long-running talk about the Mets as a landing spot for Troy Tulowitzki, Cespedes actually projects to be a better player over the rest of the 2015 season. His combination of power and quality defense make him a well above average player even in a normal year, and the Mets are acquiring him when he’s performing at the peak of his abilities. And they got to keep most of the best parts of their future in tact in order to do it.
So, realistically, the questions are more about how Cespedes fits in New York than whether about this is a fair price to pay for a good player; it pretty clearly is, given the other trades we’ve seen this week. But while the Mets have long been searching for offense, Cespedes is still a bit of an awkward fit for New York.
When the Tigers traded Rick Porcello to the Red Sox for Yoenis Cespedes in December, they exchanged one player going into the final year of his contract for another (Detroit also got reliever Alex Wilson in the deal). Boston subsequently inked Porcello to a four-year extension worth $82.5 million. Detroit went in another direction, opting to hold their cards on Cespedes. Today, they dealt him to the Mets in exchange for a pair of prospects.
Exactly how much interest Dave Dombrowski and Company had in extending Porcello prior to moving him last winter is hard to say. Conversely, it’s safe to say they didn’t feel he was worth what it would take to retain him. Based on his performance in Boston, they were right in their evaluation. Read the rest of this entry »
This one isn’t yet officially official, but it seems on the verge: the Blue Jays are about to pick up Ben Revere from the Phillies. No word on the return, but for this:
Ruben Amaro basically said another deal is coming w Phils getting A ball player back.
— Jim Salisbury (@JSalisburyCSN) July 31, 2015
Revere was long known to be available. He had next to no place on the Phillies, moving forward, and several contenders checked in, the Jays ultimately emerging victorious in the…well, I guess sweepstakes, if you want to call it that. Of some interest here is that Revere doesn’t have to be a rental, as he still has another two years of arbitration eligibility. He’s a little bit pricey, because he’s a Super Two player, but he is affordable in the future if that’s the way the Jays elect to go.
They aren’t doing this because of the future, though. This is clearly about another strengthening of the immediate roster, with the Jays fully committed to winning right away. As a player, Revere couldn’t be any less mysterious. He’s perfectly well understood, and his skillset is in the vicinity of average, regardless of which WAR you like to use. So this has nothing on the Troy Tulowitzki addition, but Revere’s still going to be an upgrade in left field. This morning, the Jays projected as one of the worst teams in baseball, as far as their left-field situation was concerned. Now Revere slides in, handling at least right-handed pitchers and relieving the team of Ezequiel Carrera. Danny Valencia will also spend less time hitting against righties, where he’s historically struggled.
Revere helps the outfield, basically, and he’s also fleet of foot, which you can’t say of many of his new teammates. Perhaps surprisingly, the Jays have been an above-average baserunning team, but the leader in steals is the departed Jose Reyes, with Kevin Pillar the only other guy with more than four. Revere preserves an element present with Reyes, and so he adds that element back with Reyes gone. Pitchers have already had enough trouble working with the Blue Jays’ power at the plate; now they’ll have Revere to worry about on the bases. It’s a very small thing, and maybe not a thing, but this’ll be just another way for the Jays offense to dole out unpleasantness. It won’t be all about dingers.
The Jays thought they had their solution in Michael Saunders. He was supposed to be a pretty good left fielder, until injuries conspired to eat up almost all of his season. Right now, Saunders is still looking to return in several weeks, so he’s not out for the remainder, but the Jays have learned they can’t count on him to provide anything consistent, so they opted for Revere and will deal with Saunders when they need to. Maybe that means he’s a bench bat. He could be a decent one. Think of it as even more potential depth, for a team that’s accumulating it.
The Blue Jays still aren’t in playoff position. If they come up short, they can’t say they never saw it coming. But what they are now might be the best team in the American League. They’ve got two months to get to where they want to be.
—
UPDATE
Trade’s official now. Going to the Phillies: Jimmy Cordero and Alberto Tirado. Cordero’s a 23-year-old righty reliever who’s moved into Double-A this season. Tirado’s a 20-year-old righty reliever/long man in High-A. Before the year, Kiley had Tirado as the Jays’ No. 17 prospect, while Cordero was filed under “others of note.”
Days after acquiring Scott Kazmir, the Astros went out and bought more players last night. This time around, they acquired Carlos Gomez and Mike Fiers in exchange for four prospects: Brett Phillips, Domingo Santana, Adrian Houser and Josh Hader. Let’s take a look at how this quartet of minor leaguers projects. (Note: WAR figures denote WAR through age-28 season.)
Brett Phillips, 3.7 WAR
Brett Phillips, 21, has split the 2015 season between High-A and Double-A where he’s hit .320/.377/.548 in 97 games. Phillips hit for gobs of power (.268 ISO) at the former location, but it’s yet to show up (.142 ISO) at the latter. Still, his ability to get on base has enabled him to post a 133 wRC+ since his promotion. Phillips also has above-average speed, which shows up in his stolen-base numbers.
Here’s one way to figure the Orioles did well in adding rental Gerardo Parra on Friday — so far this year, he’s recorded a 140 wRC+. That ties him with Todd Frazier for 22nd overall, and it puts him also in the company of names like Albert Pujols and Manny Machado. You don’t have to look deep if you don’t want to. The Orioles added Parra to their outfield. Why? Parra has been a really good hitter. Look how simple baseball is.
But hey, this season has been a little out of character for a guy who’s previously been a tweener. Understandably, the market wasn’t totally buying Parra’s offensive breakout. And you don’t have to, either, but I thought I’d at least introduce some numbers. Here’s Gerardo Parra, pulling the ball, by wRC+ over his career:
2009: 124
2010: 39
2011: 151
2012: 106
2013: 73
2014: 107
2015: 239
And, his groundball rates when pulling the ball:
2009: 73%
2010: 82%
2011: 69%
2012: 77%
2013: 78%
2014: 74%
2015: 59%
Obviously, numbers bounce around. And Parra’s big season hasn’t been all about hitting the ball to right and right-center. But this is at least curious, and at best an indicator of real change. Parra’s hitting a career-low rate of groundballs, overall, with a career-best hard-hit rate, and what might follow from that is that he’s gotten better about selectively lifting the ball. And also doing so with authority. Could be a change to his swing. Don’t have time to look at that now, but Parra was always more of a speedy sort. Keep in mind that Carlos Gomez was more of a speed-and-slap hitter until he went to Milwaukee, where they unlocked his strength. The Brewers let Gomez become a power hitter, and maybe they saw something similar in Parra. Last year, after he joined the Brewers from the Diamondbacks, his grounder rate dropped almost immediately.
It’s just something to think about. And Parra, even now, is only 28, so he could have some good years left. Looking at the rest-of-season projections, and normalizing them all to a per-200-plate-appearances basis, Parra projects about as well as Corey Dickerson and Randal Grichuk. He projects short of Yoenis Cespedes and Justin Upton, but if you buy Parra’s offensive improvement, he closes that gap quickly. This year, Parra’s out-hit them both. And, historically, he’s been a good defender.
Is Gerardo Parra sort of the new Carlos Gomez? Just maybe. He was already a useful player, but now the Orioles also found some upside. And they have a chance to sign Parra to an extension, if they want, and if they’re buying his improvement. The Brewers extended Gomez for three years and $24 million when he was fresh off his first strong offensive year. He only got better, and the deal looked like a bargain immediately.
What the Orioles gave up isn’t nothing. Zach Davies is a real prospect, starting every few days in Triple-A. While his fastball is underwhelming, he features a real good changeup, and those are the sorts of pitching prospects who tend to get underrated by the overall scouting community. With a few more strikes, or a step forward with his breaking ball, Davies could be a big-league starter soon. Congratulations to the Brewers! Davies should help them in 2016. Parra will help the Orioles now, as they try to compete with the Yankees and the extremely flashy Blue Jays. And maybe, just maybe, Parra will stick around. He might’ve become a special player.
| 1:50 |
: With the deadline coming up in a few hours, but a lull in significant moves, let’s spend a bit of time talking about what might go down.
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| 1:51 |
: I’ll be around for a bit, but will have to bail to go write if anything major happens.
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| 1:51 |
: So let’s talk trade stuff until then.
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| 1:53 |
What will the Haren return look like? |
| 1:54 |
: I bet the Cubs are giving nothing of consequence but agreed to cover some of the money that was already covered by the Dodgers. So Marlins might just be double dipping to get even more cash.
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| 1:54 |
: Just speculation, but would be a Marlins thing to do.
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The Blue Jays’ bullpen hasn’t been terrible this year, but there are two important names ahead of them if you rank the American League’s relievers by teams: the Yankees and the Orioles. But with the additions of Aaron Sanchez, LaTroy Hawkins, and now Mark Lowe, things might change a bit for the Blue Jays.
If you haven’t checked in with Mark Lowe recently, you may not have noticed that he’s returned to some of his former glory. In the results category, yes, but also in a more important category: