In case you missed it, I’ve broken down the prospects in the Johnny Cueto (Reds to Royals) trade, Scott Kazmir (A’s to Astros) trade, Tyler Clippard (A’s to Mets) deal, the Troy Tulowitzki (Rockies to Blue Jays) trade and in one post yesterday covered the prospects in the deals of Ben Zobrist (A’s to Royals), Jonathan Papelbon (Phillies to Nationals), David DeJesus (Rays to Angels), and David Murphy (Indians to Angels) trades.  This morning I wrote up the deal sending Cole Hamels from the Phillies to the Rangers. Here’s the breakdown of the 3-for-1 David Price deal sending him to Toronto, and I bet I’ll write a few more of these.

Everyone is going to compare this trade to the Johnny Cueto deal since it’s one rental MLB ace for three minor-league lefties. I gave Finnegan, Reed and Lamb 55, 50 and 40 FV grades, respectively — with all of them pretty close to the big leagues — while the combination Norris, Labourt and Boyd received 55, 50 and 45+ FV grades, with Labourt the farthest away of the six (although not by much). I’d lean to the Price haul and I’d lean strongly that way if Norris can work out his delivery issues.

Daniel Norris, LHP, Detroit Tigers, FV: 55

Coming into this year, Norris was riding a wave of positive momentum after a non-descript start to his pro career, itself coming on the heels of a $2 million bonus in the second round in 2011 out of a Tennessee high school. The big question on Norris coming into pro ball was his delivery and those questions still exist now, even though they disappeared in the second half of 2014 when he steamrolled his way to the big leagues from A-Ball.

Read the rest of this entry »

Well, if you weren’t sure if the Blue Jays were really going for it or not, here’s your answer. A few days after acquiring Troy Tulowitzki, Toronto has shipped out pitching prospects Daniel Norris, Jairo Labourt, and Matt Boyd to rent the last few months of David Price’s 2015 season, giving them the #1 starter they’ve lacked all season, and a dramatic upgrade to a rotation that was mediocre at best, and extremely thin at the back-end. While Price can’t single-handedly solve all of their pitching issues, he’s still a dramatic upgrade that makes the team far more likely to advance deep into the playoffs than they were this morning.

Like with the Johnny Cueto deal, the price for a rental was pretty steep, costing the Jays a couple of guys who could pitch in the big leagues next year, plus have some long-term upside. In his pre-season Top 200, Kiley McDaniel put a 60 FV grade on Norris, ranking him the #17 overall prospect, two spots ahead of some guy named Noah Syndergaard. Norris struggled some this year, both in the majors and in Triple-A, but he’s the best prospect moved in any deadline trade so far.

And Labourt and Boyd aren’t just throw-ins. Labourt ranked 12th on the Blue Jays list, based on big velocity from a left-handed arm, and Boyd has dramatically improved his stock by seeing his stuff takes several steps forward this year. When asked about Boyd in a chat last month, Kiley said this:

Just talked to a scout that saw him a few weeks back. His velo jumped this year from 88-92 t94 to 91-94 t96 and the solid average off-speed is now above average, sometimes flashing better. He signed for 75K as a senior from Oregon State who had his velo bump as a senior, then again two years later. Basically unprecedented as far as I know. He’s at least a high 45 FV now, probably closer to 50 FV. When the scout was telling me what he saw, I made him repeat everything because it was so hard to believe.

A 55/60 FV guy in Norris, a 45/50 guy in Boyd, and a 45 guy in Labour puts this package even a step ahead of what the Royals paid to get Johnny Cueto, and significantly thins out the Blue Jays stockpile of young arms, already weakened by Monday’s deal for Tulowitzki. Unquestionably, the Jays have decided that their window to win is now, and they weren’t content to just see whether this group could run down a Wild Card spot without significant reinforcements.

Clearly, they’re going to need to do more than just reach the play-in game for this to be worth the cost. Price’s potential impact, though, makes this a deal worth doing, even if paying this cost for a rental is likely to be painful in the long-run.

Read the rest of this entry »

Update: the Braves are reportedly also sending Bronson Arroyo to the Dodgers, which works out to saving about $8 million. So, that’s a small benefit for Atlanta, which isn’t discussed below.

—

Update No. 2: the Dodgers are taking on some of Arroyo’s money, but not all of it. So the Braves are saving less than that $8 million. Glad we could get this straightened out.

—

A valuable lesson we all learned yesterday is that a trade isn’t official until it’s officially official. In the case of this trade, it still isn’t totally complete, so, who knows? Something else we’re aware of is that the structure is complicated. As the Braves, Dodgers, and Marlins work through their three-way exchange, this seems like the current picture of the Braves’ side of things:

Get:

• Hector Olivera
• Paco Rodriguez
• Zachary Bird
• Competitive balance draft pick

Lose:

• Alex Wood
• Jose Peraza
• Jim Johnson
• Luis Avilan

Because it isn’t official, it could always fall apart. Alternatively, it could always change its form. Beyond that, even if this does go down as understood, there are plenty of moving parts. Real people, having their lives changed in an instant! A draft pick, just after the first round! So what I’m about to do is over-simplify, but what this is really about, from the Braves’ perspective, is swapping Wood and Peraza for Olivera. The rest of it more or less cancels out, given the cost of relievers at the deadline. The Braves, perhaps, weren’t comfortable with the risk of keeping Wood and Peraza around. They’re more comfortable with the risk of Olivera, who they tried hard to sign only a few months back.

Read the rest of this entry »

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Los Angeles AL at Houston | 20:10 ET
Shoemaker (97.0 IP, 101 xFIP-) vs. Kazmir (116.2 IP, 93 xFIP-)
Following consecutive victories over the Anaheimers, the Houstonians now possess both a one-game lead over and also slightly better odds of winning the division than those same Angels. The two clubs meet once again this evening — and unlike a family reunion, the reunion of the Angels and Astros tonight at Minute Maid Park will feature neither (a) baleful career advice from your uncle who had four whiskies already nor (b) sexually confusing encounters with your obviously attractive second cousin Donna. Also, the combination of Matt Shoemaker and Scott Kazmir holds some promise.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Houston Radio.

Read the rest of this entry »

The Dodgers, Marlins and Braves have pulled off a massive trade that sends Mat Latos and Alex Wood to the Dodgers, and a whole slew of other players (plus a draft pick) in other directions. The prospects involved include Jose Peraza, Kevin Guzman, Jeff Brigham, Victor Araujo and Zachary Bird. Here’s what the data say about these players. (Note: WAR figures denote WAR through age-28 season.)

Jose Peraza, Los Angeles Dodgers, 8.7 WAR

Jose Peraza is easily the most highly touted prospect who changed hands in this deal. The 21-year-old second baseman was playing in Triple-A this year, where he was hitting an admirable .294/.318/.379 with 26 steals. He put up much better numbers in the lower levels of the minors, however, including a .339/.364/.441 showing between High-A and Double-A last year.

Peraza’s offensive game is centered entirely around contact and speed. He’s struck out in just 8% of his trips to the plate this year, and has struck out less than 13% of the time in each of his five years in the minors. Peraza’s lack of strikeouts, along with his solid BABIPs, have enabled him to hit for high averages throughout his minor-league career.

Read the rest of this entry »

Ben and Sam discuss a wild Wednesday night on the trade market, covering a three-team involving involving the Dodgers, Braves, and Marlins, the Cole Hamels deal, and the Mets’ almost-trade for Carlos Gomez.

Podcast (effectively-wild): Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

The St. Louis Cardinals have reacted quickly to Matt Holliday’s injury, trading last night for Cleveland Indians’ outfielder/first baseman Brandon Moss. If Holliday, who already missed a month with a quad tear earlier this season, did not re-injure his quad in a game last night, the St. Louis Cardinals very well could have stood pat through the rest of the trading deadline. The team has had trouble all year finding production at first base, but had recently called up top hitting prospect Stephen Piscotty. With Holliday back from the disabled list, and the addition of Piscotty, the team hoped the offense would improve after experiencing some struggles heading into the All-Star break. The Holliday injury scuttled those plans, and they paid a fairly high price for a somewhat struggling Moss in Rob Kaminsky, a top-100 prospect heading into this season.

The move speaks to the lack of optimism that the Cardinals have about the return of Holliday. Already missing Matt Adams and getting little to no production from backup Mark Reynolds, the team was rumored to have been in talks with the Milwaukee Brewers for Adam Lind. Consecutive shutout losses to the Cincinnati Reds highlighted the Cardinals’ struggle to score runs, but the injury to Holliday created a real need. Even at 35, Holliday was likely going to be the Cardinals’ best hitter moving forward. His power had dropped off in the first half of the season just like it had in 2014, but a strong second half that included 14 home runs provided hope that Holliday’s bat could still do a lot of damage. His .290/.409/.420 line was still good for a 134 wRC+ and his projections for the rest of the season were in line with those numbers.

Read the rest of this entry »

Read the rest of this entry »