FanGraphs Baseball

It’s been a busy year in the courtroom for Major League Baseball. From its minor league pay practices and fan safety rules, to its scout hiring and television broadcasting practices, MLB spent 2015 defending itself from a variety of different lawsuits across the country. While I’ve covered many of these cases throughout the year, I’ll provide a final, year-end status update on three of MLB’s on-going lawsuits: The Payne suit challenging MLB’s fan safety protocol; the MASN broadcast royalty dispute between the Baltimore Orioles and Washington Nationals; and the Wyckoff suit contesting MLB’s scout-hiring and pay practices.

Payne v. Office of the Commissioner of Baseball

The issue of MLB fan safety was front and center in 2015 following a series of incidents in which fans sustained serious injuries after being struck by foul balls or broken bats. In light of these events, MLB announced earlier this month that it was issuing a new set of non-binding safety recommendations to its teams, encouraging the league’s franchises to take steps to install additional netting between the dugouts, while also making it clearer to fans at the time they buy their tickets whether particular seats are shielded from flying objects.

Despite these recommendations, MLB continues to face a lawsuit that seeks to force the league to take even greater steps to protect its fans. As I noted in July, in Payne v. Office of the Commissioner of Baseball, a California federal court has been asked to order MLB to mandate that all 30 of its teams install foul-pole-to-foul-pole netting in their stadiums. As I also noted at the time the case was filed, though, the suit faced several substantial legal hurdles — not the least of which was the fact the lead plaintiff in the suit appeared to lack the requisite legal standing-to-sue, since she had never been injured while attending an MLB game.

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After having typically appeared in the very hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past couple years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Boston Red Sox. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Atlanta / Baltimore / Cincinnati / Kansas City / New York AL / Philadelphia / Pittsburgh / Seattle / Texas / Toronto.

Batters
The object of considerable attention among the authors of this site, it’s probably not inaccurate to suggest that infielder/outfielder Mookie Betts is riddled with virtue. Or perhaps, afflicted by virtue. In either case, what he’s done is to parlay wide-ranging competence into a star-level profile. He’s projected to produce nearly a 20-20 season while also recording a strikeout rate of about 12%. He certainly doesn’t possess the skill set typical of a right fielder, but he’s equipped to produce wins anywhere, given an opportunity.

Elsewhere, one finds that (a) the second-best projection among Boston’s field players belongs to another 23-year-old, shortstop Xander Bogaerts, (b) ZiPS forecasts a slightly above-average season for Jackie Bradley Jr., and (c) Hanley Ramirez receives a defensive projection for first base!

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In recent years, MLB.TV has been something of an all-or-nothing service for baseball fans. Rather than offer single-game or single-team packages, Major League Baseball’s internet streaming service has instead allowed fans only to purchase a league-wide subscription giving them access to all 30 teams’ games.

While such an all-inclusive package is great for die-hard baseball fans, it may be viewed as a tad bit excessive for those who want to watch only their favorite team’s games. Fortunately for these fans, it appears that MLB is planning to offer additional MLB.TV purchase options in 2016.

Specifically, in a recent court-filing in the Garber v. Office of the Commissioner of Baseball lawsuit – in which the plaintiffs are challenging various MLB broadcasting practices under federal antitrust law – MLB’s lawyers have indicated that changes are in store for MLB.TV in the coming year. As the league’s attorneys explain on Page 9 of the document available here:

“beginning next season MLB will make single-team, out-of-market streams available for purchase (alongside the out-of-market package) on MLB.TV.”

It’s not immediately clear if this means that fans will be able to purchase a season-long subscription giving them access to all of a single team’s games, or if MLB will instead be reintroducing a single-game purchase option for fans (MLB.TV allowed you to purchase single game plans when the service originally debuted more than a decade ago). However, considering that both the NBA and NHL have recently created season-long, single-team streaming packages for their fans, it would seem likely that MLB intends to do the same in 2016.

Of course, it remains to be seen just how much MLB plans to charge for a single-team streaming service. In the NHL’s case, a single-team package costs only about $25 less than the league-wide package. If MLB adopts a similar pricing model, then many fans may still decide to shell out a few more bucks to get access to all 30 MLB teams’ games.

And, as the statement by MLB’s attorneys note, this new option will be available only for out-of-market fans, so fans will still have to contend with MLB’s blackout restrictions before being able to enjoy any of MLB.TV’s new purchase options.

But still, for those who wish only to watch a single out-of-market team’s games, and who have desired a cheaper MLB.TV streaming option, it appears that you’ll be in luck in 2016.

Ben and Sam banter about player privacy concerns, then dig (very) deep into the mailbag for questions that time forgot.

On Tuesday, 10 MLB managers shared their thoughts on what has become known as the Third Time Through the Order Penalty. The fact that it exists in one thing. What to do about it is another.

One idea is to develop relievers who are able to work multiple innings on a consistent basis. In other words, go back a few decades to where it wasn’t uncommon. Pitchers like Bob Stanley used to do it all the time, and not just in the middle frames. He earned numerous multi-inning saves.

A while back, I asked Stanley if there’s any reason today’s relievers couldn’t do what he, and several of his contemporaries, did.

“You have to remember, back in the day we only had 10 pitchers on the staff,” said Stanley, who coaches in the Blue Jays system. “We had five relievers and they could all go two or three innings. Now we have seven relievers and most of them can only go one inning. Could they go longer? Sure, although some guys aren’t as tough as they used to be. It’s a different game now.”

Orioles pitching coach Dave Wallace — also in an older conversation — told me much the same. Read the rest of this entry »

Episode 619
Jeff Sullivan is a senior editor at FanGraphs. He’s also the only guest on this edition of FanGraphs Audio.

This edition of the program is sponsored by Draft, the first truly mobile fantasy sports app. Compete directly against idiot host Carson Cistulli by clicking here.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 58 min play time.)

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Last week, I wrote a retrospective on Jerry Dipoto’s whirlwind first few months as the Seattle Mariners’ general manager. It’s been a time filled with moves, roster churn and intrigue. Yet the biggest curveball of Dipoto’s tenure has occurred since then, as Hisashi Iwakuma’s deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers broke down due to concerns about his physical, which allowed the Mariners to catch Iwakuma on the rebound.

The M’s major offseason moves had apparently been wrapped up, for better or worse, only for this early Christmas present to fall into the team’s lap. (Ironically, the move was announced at the club’s holiday party.) Many lessons can be learned from this turn of events. One is a better understanding of the roles of the player physical and the management of the team salary budget within the business of player procurement. A more subtle, and enlightening takeaway, is how some simple baseball axioms — having defined principles, knowing and scouting your own players better than anyone else’s and letting the game come to you — enabled the Mariners to make their own good fortune.

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As of this morning, at first base, the Pirates had the right-handed Michael Morse, and the right-handed Jason Rogers. As depth, there’s the right-handed Sean Rodriguez, and though the switch-hitting Josh Bell is on the way, he’s got his own stuff to figure out. So for the Pirates, there was an obvious need. They don’t have a lefty-heavy lineup, and last year they about tied for the highest rate of right-handed pitchers seen. The division projects to be righty-heavy again. The Pirates needed an affordable lefty for first.

Chris Davis is a lefty for first. But then, I said “affordable.” A week and a half ago, when Eno looked at this situation, he settled upon John Jaso. Now the word is out that the Pirates have signed John Jaso. He’s getting two years, and he’s getting $8 million, and if this isn’t the very most Pirates move, it’s at least in the conversation. It doesn’t get much more Pirates than this.

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We spend a lot of time talking about value. Which means we spend a lot of time arguing about value, because value is a difficult thing to nail down, given the ambiguity of the word and issues with some of the statistics. We also spend a lot of time talking about future value, which introduces even greater uncertainty on account of the future hasn’t happened yet. Player value is right at the core of FanGraphs, but a lot of the time it’s incredibly complicated. It’s a refreshing break when you can make it easy.

And I don’t know if it gets easier than evaluating relievers, after the fact. It can still be something of a chore, but relative to other players, it’s a breeze. Relievers get inserted in particular places, and they’re supposed to keep the score where it is. A reliever is supposed to do as much as he can to improve his team’s chances of winning. We can see how the performances went by checking WPA. WPA, of course, includes a leverage component, but then, relievers tend to earn their high-leverage responsibilities. Let’s take a brief look back. Let’s talk about some really valuable relievers.

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