FanGraphs Baseball

On Monday, the San Francisco Giants reportedly agreed to terms with free agent starter Johnny Cueto on a six-year contract that will guarantee him $130 million, a pretty nice haul for a pitcher who struggled significantly in the second half of the year. And when you factor in that Cueto also obtained an opt-out after the second year, which could allow him to re-enter the market after the 2017 season and land a significant raise if he pitches well over his next 400 innings, this deal offers a lot of reasons for Cueto and his representatives to be happy with how the market has developed.

However, it’s interesting to see Cueto sign with the Giants for $130 million, when just a few weeks prior, his agent had publicly stated that a reported six year, $120 million offer from the Diamondbacks was a “low offer for the market”. In fact, his agent made it sound like they were going to be aiming quite a bit higher.

“It was a low offer for the market,” Dixon said. “We didn’t have to think hard to reject that offer. Arizona wanted to do something fast, but we didn’t want to take something below market value for a No. 1 starter, and with the recent events, I think that time gave us the reason.”

Agents are known for public comments that may not be reflective of reality, since their job is to get as much money for their clients as possible, not be objective sources of information. But in light of Dixon’s comments, it’s worth noting that Cueto actually took a smaller guaranteed income by accepting the Giants’ offer than he would have received if he had taken the Diamondbacks’ offer, due to the very different tax climates in California and Arizona.

For high-earners like Cueto, California has the highest marginal tax rate of any state in the country, coming in at 13.3% of all income over $1 million. Meanwhile, Arizona has one of the lowest tax rates in the country, with their highest marginal rate topping out at 4.5%. Of course, the tax code is complex, and it’s never just as simple as looking at the top marginal rate to figure out equivalent offers between teams in different states.

Read the rest on Fox Sports.

It’s my belief that, right now, the Cubs are the best team in baseball. Don’t worry, you’ll have a chance to express your own belief at the end. I know that we’ve been a little heavy on Cubs posts. It’s not entirely our fault — they’ve been active. I also know it’s not super important who looks like the best team in baseball in the middle of December. There’s offseason left, and there’s spring training to go, and countless things could change. It also happens to be my belief the Cubs will remain the best team in baseball as we reach Opening Day, but this is about things as they are. Right now, literally as you read this, provided you read this somewhere close to the publishing date.

I’m going to lay out why I think the Cubs are the best. I’m also going to try to lay out why they might not be, despite all the stuff in the first part. It’s not about being contradictory — it’s about trying to cover everything. At the bottom of the post, you’ll respond to a very simple question. We’ll see which argument you find most convincing.

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After having typically appeared in the very hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past couple years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Texas Rangers. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Atlanta / Cincinnati / Kansas City / Philadelphia / Pittsburgh / Toronto.

Batters
The Texas Rangers outperformed their Base Runs record by seven wins this past season, resembling on the peripheral level more a league-average club than a division-winning one. That’s not to discredit their accomplishment, at all. It does, however, begin to explain how a team that won 88 games and returns literally all its positional starters — how such a team could look so ordinary by way of computer algorithms.

It certainly isn’t an advantage for Texas that they have a considerable portion of their payroll allocated to four merely decent players. Elvis Andrus, Shin-Soo Choo, Prince Fielder, and Josh Hamilton are expected to earn roughly $88 million collectively this year and yet to produce fewer than six wins as a group. That’s approximately $15 million per win — or nearly double the current estimated win valuation of the market.*

None of this, of course, is to impugn Adrian Beltre, who famously once played both Daedalus and Icarus in a community theater production of Ovid’s Metamorphoses.

*Note: I’ve neglected to mention here that a portion of Fielder’s and nearly all of Hamilton’s contracts are being subsidized by other clubs. Naturally, that changes the dollars-per-win calculus. What it doesn’t change is the projections themselves.

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Position: Boston Red Sox Baseball Operations Analytics Intern

Location: Boston

Description:
The Boston Red Sox are seeking a Baseball Operations intern with a focus on analytics for the 2016 calendar year. The internship will provide exposure to all departments within baseball operations. Applicants must have a passion for baseball, strong work ethic, excellent communication skills, attention to detail, and the ability to work quickly while balancing multiple priorities.

Candidates must be available to start by the end of January and continue in the position until mid-December. The position reports to the Director of Major League Operations. Please note that such positions have the potential to lead to a full-time employment offer, but such an offer is not guaranteed.

Responsibilities:

• Statistical modeling and quantitative analysis of a variety of data sources, for the purpose of player evaluation, strategic decision-making, decision analysis, etc.
• Ad hoc queries and quantitative research in support of general Baseball Operations tasks.
• Overseeing daily updates to our baseball information system.
• Monitoring the quality of external data feeds.
• Staying current on publicly available baseball research.
• Various game-day duties, as necessary.
• General intern duties.

Qualifications:

• A strong foundation in mathematics, statistics, computer science and/or engineering.
• Strong baseball knowledge.
• Experience using SQL.
• Familiarity with current baseball research and analysis.
• Familiarity with a statistical software package such as R.
• Proficiency in Microsoft Office (Excel, PowerPoint, Word).
• Ability to work evening, weekend, and holiday hours is a must.
• Other programming and database skills are a plus.

Compensation:
This position is compensated.

To Apply:
To apply, please send an email to analyticsresume@redsox.com with the subject “2016 Analytics Internship”. Please include a resume and answers to the following questions:

1. What computer programming experience do you have?
2. What is a project that you believe would add substantial value to a baseball team? Please describe the project and provide an overview of how you would complete it.

Just to be clear, there are two positions here.

Position: Texas Rangers Architect, Baseball Systems

Location: Arlington, Texas

Description:
The Architect, Baseball Systems will expand and maintain our existing proprietary software for baseball operations.

Responsibilities:

• Maintain and expand our internal web site, reports and internal applications.
• Designing and maintaining the database.
• Import, transformation and maintenance of multiple complex data feeds.
• Work with baseball operations staff to identify requirements.
• Support end users.

Qualifications:

• Five to 10 years professional software development experience (preference for full stack .NET developers).
• Bachelor’s degree or higher in computer science preferred.
• Excellent written and verbal communication skills.
• Familiarity with current statistical concepts in baseball.
• Passion for the game.
• Experience in any of the following are helpful: C#, Microsoft SQL Server (development, data design, query tuning), ASP.Net web forms, SQL Server Reporting Services, SQL Server Integration Services, jQuery, Tableau.

Compensation:
This position is compensated.

To Apply:
It is a big plus if you can include or link to work samples a big plus when you apply for this position. Please apply here.

…

Position: Texas Rangers Quantitative Analyst

Location: Arlington, Texas

Description:
The Quantitative Analyst will create statistical models and applications and assist in general research and development work for Baseball Operations.

Responsibilities:

• Develop statistical models; import, export and transform data as necessary to prepare the data sets for these models.
• Develop automation, applications and reports to put models into production for users.
• Conduct general research and development.
• Work with baseball operations staff to prioritize areas of research along with developing a deeper understanding of the game.

Qualifications:

• One-three years’ experience in a similar role preferred (inside or outside of baseball).
• Bachelor’s degree in Statistics, Data Science, Engineering or similar fields or equivalent work experience.
• Proficiency in SQL and relational databases (we use Microsoft SQL Server).
• Proficiency in R or similar statistics packages.
• Proficiency in SQL Server Reporting Services, Tableau or other visualization or reporting tools a plus.
• Passion for baseball.
• Strong understanding of baseball statistics and strategy, familiarity with current sabermetric research.
• Strong written and verbal communications skills.

Compensation:
This position is compensated.

To Apply:
It is a big plus if you can include or link to work samples a big plus when you apply for this position. Please apply here.

There’s a pitcher you might not have ever heard of. Or maybe you have heard of him, but you haven’t thought about him much. He did spend a chunk of last year in the major leagues, and now, let me explain him to you, using a series of facts.

The pitcher threw his fastball about as hard as Andrew Miller, and he also threw strikes about as often as Andrew Miller. He worked in the zone about as much as David Price, yet hitters didn’t like to swing at those pitches. He walked batters around the same rate as Corey Kluber, but he struck batters out around the same rate as Jake McGee, because he had a lower contact rate than Jose Fernandez, and a comparable swinging-strike rate to Noah Syndergaard. That’s how you wind up with a K-BB% like Dellin Betances, an ERA- like Zack Greinke, an FIP- better than Aroldis Chapman, and an xFIP- like Kenley Jansen. Last year, 476 pitchers threw at least 25 innings. The mystery pitcher performed as one of the very, very best.

He yielded the 18th-lowest batting average. Also the ninth-lowest OBP, and the 44th-lowest slugging percentage, despite working in the American League and in a hitter-friendly environment. So he gave up the 17th-lowest OPS. All these numbers are based on a pretty small sample. Yet all these numbers are impossibly encouraging.

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9:00

Billy Corman: There is a lot of substance behind the splash the Cubs have made this offseason. Cardinals seem to be missing out (I wouldn’t say they’re missing Cueto, Bob. *laughs*). All I read was the new TV contract money and $200mm for Heyward. Who’s the dance partner they take to the playoffs, Chris Davis?http://tpj.videonativesltd.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/office-space-the-bobs.png

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There was a time when Jeff Francis was on top of the world. As the best pitcher on the improbable 2007 National League champion Colorado Rockies squad, Francis pitched many pivotal games during the team’s Rocktober march, including starting all three postseason Game Ones. He even landed on the cover of Sports Illustrated, a rare feat for a Colorado Rockies team that rarely finds itself the subject of national attention:

Francis, one of the more humble baseball players I’ve ever come into contact with, who actually could have done anything he wanted to in life (he was a physics major in college) copped to buying up every copy of that issue he could find. He even sent autographed copies of it to his former coaches, which is a pretty cool thing to do.

That issue was dated Oct. 15, 2007. He landed on the cover because at that point he and the Rockies were rolling. When it landed on newstands, the team had won 20 of its last 21 games, and would win again that night to send the Rockies to their first and (still) only World Series berth. Francis had pitched admirably along the way. In Game 1 in Philadelphia, he pitched six innings of two-run ball, striking out eight. Eight days later, in the desert against the Dbacks, he arguably pitched even better. He didn’t have his strikeouts working, but he netted 13 ground balls, and allowed just one run over 6.2 innings. He was bestowed with the “W” in both outings.

In fact, while Francis had lost the only game the Rockies lost from mid-September until late October, he had pitched pretty well in the second half, and for the season overall. His 3.7 WAR in 2007 still represents the eighth-best single-season Rockies total, and his 14.2 WAR with the Rockies is still the third-most on their career pitching leaderboard. That second half, he mixed efficient quality starts with total drubbings, as he did for most of his career — the crafty Francis was often at the mercy of the home plate umpire.

Speaking of drubbings, that second loss, the one he endured in late October at the hands of the Red Sox, was a rude awakening for the Rockies and their fans. Facing the behemoth Boston lineup, Francis coughed up six runs in four innings in Game One of the 2007 World Series. Dustin Pedroia would lead the game off with a home run, and Red Sox hitters made it tough on Francis all night. He never recorded four consecutive outs, and allowed baserunners in every inning. In fact, Francis’ Game Score for the outing was a lowly 18. As it turns out, this is one of the worst Game Scores in Game One World Series history:

Worst Game Scores, World Series Game One History

Year	Pitcher	Team	GSc
2004	Woody Williams	STL	11
1945	Hal Newhouser	DET	16
1996	Andy Pettitte	NYY	17
2007	Jeff Francis	COL	18
1997	Orel Hershiser	CLE	21
1919	Eddie Cicotte	CHW	22
1979	Bruce Kison	PIT	25
2014	James Shields	KC	25
1940	Paul Derringer	CIN	26
1932	Guy Bush	CHC	27
1959	Roger Craig	LAD	27
1965	Don Drysdale	LAD	27
1980	Dennis Leonard	KC	27

SOURCE: Baseball-Reference

Find the full list of World Series Game One Game Scores here.

Despite this, there’s actually an argument to be made that the Rockies were better off with Francis in the game. Franklin Morales — who, at the time, was still a stud phenom (though not as much after this night) — was brought in to start the fifth, and he and Ryan Speier proceeded to torch any small chance the Rockies had of coming back. The pair allowed 10 baserunners and seven runs in just 0.2 innings pitched (Speier didn’t even retire a batter), and suddenly it was 13-1. An hour or so into the World Series, the life had been sucked out of the Rockies. Boston would only trail for four innings during their tidy four-game sweep.

Today, Jeff Francis announced his retirement, and 2007 seems like a long time ago. In 2008, Francis would begin to have shoulder trouble, and was rarely ever the same pitcher he was in 2007 on a consistent basis. But he still ground out a pretty decent career. Most kids who grew up loving baseball would be ecstatic if they were told they could pitch in the majors for 11 seasons, and even more so if you told them that in one of those 11 seasons they’d wind up on the cover of Sports Illustrated. No, 16 WAR isn’t going to get Jeff Francis into the Hall of Fame, but even if it ended without a parade, he’ll always have Rocktober, and that’s pretty good.

There’s not a single thing the Cubs need to do. They’re outstanding right now, and at a time when people can still buy Christmas presents without expedited shipping, the roster could be considered complete. Probably, the Cubs will come out of this offseason as NL Central favorites. From there, they could remain favorites, but I don’t want to spook any fans who might’ve become increasingly superstitious.

The Cubs could be considered complete, and in right field, they line up to have a 24-year-old Jorge Soler, a player they control through 2020, a player who, in 2014, was one of the three best hitters in the minor leagues, alongside two current teammates. Soler is dynamic and exciting and the sort of player any team would love to have in the system. Yet these rumors persist, trying to send Soler elsewhere. There’s enough smoke you sense there might be a flame: Soler might be on the move any day now. The Cubs would probably prefer a bit more certainty. Which means there are the potential makings here of a major trade.

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In the days since we first caught wind of the Ken Giles trade, we’ve learned of a few players who weren’t previously thought to be included. For one, the Astros sent pitching prospect Mark Appel to Philly, rather than outfield prospect Derek Fisher. Additionally, the two teams also swapped Arauzess: Middle infield prospect Jonathan Arauz is headed to Houston, while pitching prospect Harold Arauz goes to Philly. Although they share a last name, and happened to be in the same trade, the two are unrelated. Baseball can be weird sometimes. Anyway, here’s what KATOH thinks of these prospects. Note that WAR figures represent projected WAR through the player’s age-28 season based on 2015 minor-league stats.

Jonathan Arauz, 3.9 WAR (Profile)

The Phillies signed Jonathan Arauz out of Panama with a $600,000 bonus in the summer of 2014. Although he didn’t turn 17 until August, the Phillies brought Arauz stateside to start his pro career, and he didn’t embarrass himself. He hit .254/.309/.370 in 44 games while splitting time between second base and shortstop.

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