Kiley McDaniel Prospects Chat – 7/7/15

12:03
Kiley McDaniel: Kiley is here and he’s slightly sunburned from some day HS tourney games yesterday

12:08
Comment From Bob Benson
Last week in his chat, Cameron mentioned that you two had discussed Hunter Renfroe and that you would be downgrading his prospect status. Can you elaborate on why?

12:09
Kiley McDaniel: There were some contact/approach concerns on Renfroe from back in his amateur days, but he hit so you couldn’t really factor that into his prospect status as much, unless you were really convicted it wouldn’t work at higher levels, which most scouts couldn’t do because all the tools are there.He had a yellow flag of a tough half-season at AA last year that we needed to pay attention to this year and he hasn’t really improved. Now those concerns are real and that Jeff Francoeur comp I got seems more real, too.

12:09
Comment From Nick C
Are the Mets in on any other international free agents not named Gimenez or Gregory Guerrero? I know they have little money left over after trade.

12:14
Kiley McDaniel: Most prospects under 500K don’t have a high profile, so I wouldn’t expect to hear much more. That said, if you look at the J2 boardhttp://www.fangraphs.com/sc…

the Mets did the best of any team at getting two high end players and staying under their pool, with the Braves just behind them. That’s the best you can ask for among the 20+ teams staying under their pool. You have permission to be happy about this.

12:14
Comment From Stanatee the Manatee
I live near a couple Frontier League teams. How much do MLB front offices scout/keep an eye on independent minor leagues like that one?

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Scout Hiring and Pay Practices Challenged in New Lawsuit

MLB’s pay practices have come under considerable scrutiny in recent years. In 2013 and 2014, the U.S. Department of Labor launched a series of investigations examining whether several MLB teams violated the federal Fair Labor Standards Act (FLSA) by failing to pay their clubhouse attendants, administrative workers, and interns in accordance with the FLSA’s minimum wage and overtime requirements.

At the same time, MLB has also been hit with four different lawsuits over the last two years alleging that the league’s pay practices violate the FLSA and/or federal antitrust law. The most notable of these cases were two suits filed last year contending that MLB teams routinely fail to pay their minor-league players either the minimum wage or overtime. Those cases – which assert that minor leaguers often earn as little as $3,300 per year – currently remain pending against 22 MLB teams.

Now, yet another group of MLB employees is coming forward to challenge MLB’s pay practices. In a new class action lawsuit filed last week in New York federal court, former Kansas City Royals scout Jordan Wyckoff contends that MLB teams have unlawfully agreed not to compete with one another for the services of their amateur and professional scouts. As a result, the suit – Wyckoff v. Office of the Commissioner of Baseball – asserts that a number of MLB scouts currently make less than the minimum wage and are not paid overtime, even when working more than 40 hours in a given week.

Wyckoff alleges that these practices not only violate the FLSA, but that they fail to comply with both federal and state antitrust law as well.

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NERD Game Scores: Houston Astros Utopian Tale Event

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

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Most Highly Rated Game
Houston at Cleveland | 19:10 ET
Velasquez (25.2 IP, 116 xFIP-) vs. Kluber (118.2 IP, 66 xFIP-)
Talented Cleveland right-hander Corey Kluber faces a group of young men who, after crash-landing on an uninhabited island in the Pacific following a wartime evacuation, instead of descending into murderous anarchy — instead of doing that, proceeded rather to diligently train and practice baseball, eventually forming a club and joining Major League Baseball as the Houston Astros. Today represents an opportunity to experience their inspirational story again, as if for the first time.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Cleveland Radio.

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What Do You Think of Your Team’s Front Office?

FanGraphs used to run something called the organizational rankings. Sometimes it was funny. Arguably the main reason we stopped was because it seemed just entirely too difficult to objectively grade a team’s front office. That was an important grade for the rankings, and if you couldn’t trust a component grade, there wasn’t much sense in trusting the overall grade. The intent was always good; the outcome was always iffy.

I’ve been thinking a little bit about front offices lately. Monday, I thought about the Mariners’ misfortune in Robinson Cano developing some sort of energy-sapping stomach ailment. And not long back, I was thinking about the Angels, and Jerry Dipoto, and how the Angels might not be in a perfect position, but also how Arte Moreno forced Dipoto’s hand with some major transactions. What I keep coming back to is the idea that front offices are almost impossible to evaluate, in any meaningful way. Everything they do, they do for a reason, but there’s an enormous element of luck, and there are other sometimes hidden factors we might not know a lot about. Sometimes a decision really came from ownership. Sometimes a success or failure was more about player development. It’s almost hopeless out here. For these purposes, there’s little the analyst can do but react.

But then, I’m a big fan of crowdsourcing. Not necessarily because the people always know the answers, but because it can be really interesting just to see how different people think. Who pays more attention than you? Who thinks more critically than you? Why wouldn’t I want to tap into this audience, to see what it believes?

In this post, many polls. I want to know what you think about the front office of the team you follow most closely. I know this is an impossible task, but I want you to think about the front office independent of ownership, and independent of player development. Think about the methods, or about what you perceive to be the methods. Think about how the front office might work with an average payroll. And think about the front office right now. What’s really being asked: relative to the other front offices, how much would you believe in your team’s front office, if it were given an ordinary roster and an ordinary budget? Would it build something successful, or would it end up as a mess?

No part of me believes we’ll get real answers out of this. But it’s not like you’re being graded on how you vote. I’m interested, mostly, in how the 30 front offices are perceived. That’ll be made possible with your feedback. We’ve tried to grade the front offices before. Consider this your turn. And unlike when you’re picking a president, this time your vote could actually count for something. FanGraphs is for the people!

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Chris Coghlan on Hitting

Chris Coghlan isn’t the same hitter he was when he captured NL Rookie of the Year honors in 2009. His numbers aren’t quite as good, but the Marlin-turned-Cub nonetheless feels he’s better. At age 30, he has a more learned understanding both of his craft and the stats that matter.

Coghlan has put up a .272/.353/.443 slash line since coming to Chicago prior to last season. This year he will easily eclipse his career best in home runs, and his walk rate has never been higher. Coghlan is by no means a star, but he’s been a cog in the Cubs lineup against right-handed pitchers. He has just 27 plate appearances against southpaws, which is his lone complaint.

Coghlan talked hitting prior to a recent game at Wrigley Field.

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Coghlan on his swing: “Pitchers are going to run it and sink it on you. If you’re too flat on your bat path, you’re going to swing right over the top of the ball, or hit it right into the ground. You need to have an entry plane that’s up enough, or steep enough, to get underneath the ball, to lift it. The more rotational you are, the flatter you are, yeah, you’re going to run into some line drives if the ball is elevated, but for the most part it’s going to be tough for you to square it up.

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Effectively Wild Episode 702: The Significance of Scioscia Deposing Dipoto

Ben and Sam banter about trade arbitrage and Jon Lester, then discuss the Angels’ front-office overthrow.


Brock Holt: All-Star

I’m in the Red Sox clubhouse for the vast majority of their home games, so I could easily write about the team on a regular basis. I choose not to. They get plenty of coverage as it is, and there are 29 other clubs. For the most part, I keep my Boston content to a minimum.

Brock Holt being named to the American League All-Star team is something I can’t refrain from penning (to use an archaic term) a few words on. After all, I’ve been banging the Holt drum since early in the current campaign.

Holt is a throwback, the type of player who provides value beyond his raw numbers. And his numbers aren’t chicken soup. Playing every position on the field besides pitcher and catcher, Holt is hitting .295/.383/.424. On a team of underachievers, he’s anything but.

This past weekend, I asked A.J. Hinch about Holt. The Houston Astros manager described him perfectly, saying Holt “does everything pretty well, maybe without dominating any one particular part of the game.” He called Holt “a tough out” and “a very impressive player.” As you might expect, he lauded his versatility.

A few weeks earlier, another manager expressed even more admiration. Holt hit for the cycle against the Atlanta Braves at Fenway Park, and after the game I spoke to Fredi Gonzalez. As I was exiting his office, he stopped me with a tongue-in-cheek request.

“Can you do me a favor?” asked Gonzalez. “Go over there and tell (Holt), ‘If they don’t want him, we’ll take him.’ I’ve always loved that (expletive). He’s a nice player to have, because he can play all over the field and he gives you a helluva an at bat.”

Brock Holt – essentially a throw-in in the December 2012 Joel HanrahanMark Melancon deal – is the lone All-Star representative for a team with a payroll pushing $200 million. That’s a story well worth writing about.

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Addendum per Red Sox media relations: Holt is the first player ever to be named an All-Star after appearing at 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, LF, CF, and RF prior to the All-Star break.


The Tigers Are Trapped

Last winter was the winter of Cole Hamels trade conversation. As it became more clear the Phillies were going to hold on for the time being, it became necessary to try to forecast the midseason trade market. Hamels was obviously going to be out there. And then people wondered about Johnny Cueto. On the one hand, it made sense, with Cueto due to become a free agent, and the Reds seemingly not very good. But the Reds also wanted to win — everyone wants to win — and in the middle of May, the Reds were caught in that in-between position, with as many wins as losses. That’s not a good place to find yourself, when you’re on the verge of having to rebuild. Since then, though, the Reds have lost 60% of their games, so they’ve at least gotten clarity. These Reds ought to sell. While nobody likes losing, at least losing has made the Reds’ decision easier.

Where the Reds know what they ought to do, though, the situation has grown increasingly complicated in Detroit. Many have been predicting the Tigers’ coming demise for a while, and though that might be overstated, it’s not an organization on the upswing. It’s more of a win-now ballclub, but it’s a win-now ballclub with about as many losses as wins, and a few days ago Miguel Cabrera went and hurt himself. For the next six weeks — roughly half of the remainder — Miguel Cabrera will be replaced by not Miguel Cabrera, and that’s a huge void for a team that’s been struggling for a month and a half. The Tigers, I’m sure, would love to know how to proceed. Unfortunately, nothing about this is simple. The Tigers are navigating a ridge while they’re fully exposed.

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JABO: Josh Donaldson’s Rogers Centre(d) Approach

For the past two years, there’s been a dark horse in the MVP race. Though he might never had a shot at winning the award with the likes of Miguel Cabrera and Mike Trout putting up the types of seasons they did, Josh Donaldson has nonetheless been one of the best players in baseball since the start of 2013. This year, we’re witnessing an interesting development: a plate approach adjustment to take advantage of the offense-friendly Rogers Centre.

We’ve gotten accustomed to seeing a high level of production out of Donaldson since August of 2012: above average walks, a lot of power and elite defense. His offensive output was tempered in 2013 and 2014 by the fact that he had to play his home games in pitcher-friendly Oakland; the prevailing thought was that moving to the Rogers Centre in 2015 could possibly vault him into an even higher echelon among power hitters.

At the midpoint of this season, that’s exactly what has happened. Take a look at Donaldson’s yearly stats since the start of 2013, the first year he was the productive hitter we see today:

Season BB% K% AVG OBP SLG ISO BABIP wRC+
2013 11.4% 16.5% .301 .384 .499 .199 .333 147
2014 10.9% 18.7% .255 .342 .456 .201 .278 129
2015 7.7% 19.7% .295 .352 .529 .234 .322 142

A few things of note this season: Donaldson’s strikeouts are up, his walks are down a fair amount and his power is more substantial. We tend to see walk rates improve as players age, so this is a little strange. What could be causing his drop in free passes? Let’s look at Donaldson’s stats away from Rogers Centre this year:

Season Home / Away BB% K% AVG OBP SLG ISO BABIP wRC+
2015 Away 11.0% 19.2% .227 .316 .360 .133 .257 92

His rate stats look in line with his career norms since 2013, but everything else has been pulled down in some part by bad batted-ball luck. How about his stats this year at Rogers Centre?

Season Home / Away BB% K% AVG OBP SLG ISO BABIP wRC+
2015 Home 4.7% 20.2% .352 .383 .670 .318 .380 186

There we have it. Compared to his overall stats the past two years, he’s basically not walking, he’s striking out more and he’s hitting for much more power when he’s playing at home. What we seem to be seeing is a different approach when Donaldson is in Toronto — one that allows him to take advantage of his home park’s natural power-boosting tendencies. Let’s go into the reasons for the numbers.

Read the rest on Just a Bit Outside.


Effectively Wild Episode 701: The All-Banter Backlog Show

Ben and Sam return from a semi-extended absence to banter about Bryce Harper, Stephen Strasburg, a David Ortiz fun fact, All-Star voting, Cardinals hacking, and more.