FanGraphs Baseball

Just yesterday, we thought the Wade Miley trade might’ve been lopsided. And, you know, maybe. But now we’re on another level. Forget the Wade Miley trade. Now we have the Shelby Miller trade. Kudos to the Diamondbacks — they got Miller, who they wanted. They also got Gabe Speier, who is a player. But Miller didn’t come for free. In exchange, the Braves got Ender Inciarte. Also, the Braves got Dansby Swanson. Also, the Braves got Aaron Blair. Inciarte being a quality, cost-controlled outfielder. Swanson being last year’s first overall pick. Blair being possibly or probably a top-100 starter prospect who’s close to the majors. Don’t get me wrong, Miller is plenty interesting. He ought to help Arizona. Yet the trade looks like a clear, obvious mistake.

You always want to let the first impression settle. You always want to think these things through, to try to make sense from both sides if you can. Sometimes, though, you remain feeling how you initially felt. There’s a parallel you can draw here — the last time I felt like this about a trade, the Royals picked up James Shields. At this point, the Royals don’t regret what they did. There was a way for that to work out for them, just as there’s a way for this to work out for Arizona. But the Shields trade went almost as well for Kansas City as possible. And there’s no Wade Davis in this move. Inciarte might play the part of Wil Myers. Swanson might play the part of Wil Myers. There are two options, with Blair more or less playing the part of Jake Odorizzi. This could easily be a bigger haul, for very probably a lesser return. Occasionally there are bad trades. This is among the worst of them.

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The Braves have reportedly sent Shelby Miller to the Diamondbacks for 25-year-old outfielder Ender Inciarte, 23-year-old right-hander Aaron Blair, and last year’s number one overall pick, 21-year-old shortstop Dansby Swanson. The Diamondbacks get a good pitcher under control for three years, and the Braves continue their rebuilding process.

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The other shoe dropped soon after the Cubs signed Ben Zobrist and created a logjam at second base — Starlin Castro is reportedly heading to New York for Brendan Ryan and Adam Warren. The deal, at its worst, is a way for the Cubs to spread some talent around at areas of need while giving the Yankees an average second baseman. Need for need.

The arm the Cubs are getting could change the calculus, though.

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The Cubs have reportedly signed Ben Zobrist to a four-year deal worth $56 million. That’s definitively not an $80 million deal, but at the behest of agents, all sorts of silly numbers get thrown around in the rumor mill. This number makes a lot more sense. In fact, the deal seems to be paying for floor.

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It’s an interesting thing in life when we can look at someone’s behavior and immediately identify its causes based on what we know of their past. Like when an actor tries to do a serious movie because they’ve only been seen as a comedian, or when a guy hits 40 and rushes out to by that ’86 Firebird he’d wanted since he was 11. These things are easy to diagnose, no degree required.

So, too, with Dave Dombrowski’s first offseason in Boston. He’s spent the balance of the last decade, it seems, losing in the playoffs because his bullpen failed him when he needed it most of all. So how do you counteract that? Easy! Get all the best relievers, or a good number of them, anyway. That was easy!

First, there was the Craig Kimbrel deal which did two things. It (a) caused the internet to freak out because Dombrowski dealt a seemingly silly amount of prospects to San Diego, and (b) added Kimbrel to the Red Sox bullpen. Then yesterday he traded Wade Miley for reliever Carson Smith (covered here by Jeff Sullivan). It’s easy to picture Dombrowski sitting down for the first time in his Fenway Park office, visions of David Ortiz’s grand slam flying just beyond the outstretched glove of Torii Hunter flickering in his brain like an old newsreel. He grabs a napkin out of his pocket and jots down the word “bullpen” over and over until he builds up then pops a blister on his finger. “The most dominant, unimpeachable, and impregnable bullpen yet seen on earth will be mine,” he thinks, “just as soon as I find a band-aid. OW! That smarts.”

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The Chicago Cubs clearly had two primary areas in need of improvement at the beginning of this offseason: starting pitching and center field. The word was that the Cubs were in on David Price, but we know that didn’t happen, and so instead the Cubs went with a more cost-effective choice in John Lackey.

For the rest of the Cubs offseason, that means two things. For one, the rotation appears to be complete. It’s now deeper than last year’s, still has two aces at the top, and doesn’t have an obvious hole. Of course, if something came up, the Cubs could still improve, but no longer does the need exist for another starter, of any caliber. What the Lackey move means, also, is that the Cubs have some extra money to spend in the outfield. If they were in on Price, that means they were prepared to spend somewhere in the range of $200 million, and on Lackey, they spent just $34 million.

It should come as no surprise that talks have turned to Jason Heyward.

Patrick Mooney of CSNChicago reported that “the Cubs have envisioned Jason Heyward batting leadoff and playing center at Wrigley Field” and that they’ve “had Heyward on their radar for a long time.” Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times asked general manager Jed Hoyer about the financial implications of going after a top outfielder, and Hoyer responded that “We have some available resources. I think that much is clear.” Jesse Rogers of ESPN thinks it’s more likely the Cubs wind up with Heyward than Dexter Fowler. All of this has come out within the last 24 hours.

In addition, the Cubs are bidding against the rival St. Louis Cardinals, and the effects of the Cubs potentially acquiring Heyward would be two-fold, in that it would also mean the Cardinals weren’t acquiring him.

Clearly, the pieces are in place here. Heyward to the Cubs, on the surface, makes a great deal of sense. Theo Epstein stated back in October the desire to improve the team’s outfield defense, and Heyward has rightfully earned a reputation as an excellent defender. The interesting part, though, is that the Cubs are clearly interested in Heyward as a center fielder, given the existence of Kyle Schwarber and Jorge Soler in the corners, and 97% of Heyward’s major league innings have come in right field. He’s started just 30 games in center field, and his price tag is going to be somewhere around $200 million. That’s a significant investment to make when you’re planning to play a guy in unfamiliar territory. It’s a significant investment no matter where you’re planning to play him, but it might be viewed as especially risky given the circumstance.

But should it be?

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Ben and Sam banter about Hall of Fame voting and David Price, then talk about the recent trend toward teams acquiring multiple elite late-inning relievers.

Dig around enough and you can make any transaction kind of interesting. Everybody in the upper ranks of professional baseball, after all, is only there because they possess extraordinary talent. Everyone has promise, so everyone can make a difference, so everyone deserves a certain amount of attention. Yet moves are considered relative to one another, and I’m not going to lie to you — Tuesday’s trade between the Padres and the Cardinals isn’t one you’ll think about very much. This is a move that’ll get lost in all the thoughts about dealing for Jose Fernandez.

From the Padres, the Cardinals are getting Jedd Gyorko and a bit over $7 million. From the Cardinals, the Padres are getting Jon Jay. Gyorko lines up to be a utility infielder, perhaps a platoon partner for Kolten Wong. The hope is that he does a little more than Pete Kozma or, earlier, Daniel Descalso. The Padres wanted out from under Gyorko’s long-term contract. Jay lines up to be a semi-regular outfielder, perhaps a platoon partner for Melvin Upton. He’s a free agent in a year, and the Padres seem unlikely to contend, and the Cardinals included Jay to offset some more money. Based on the intent of this deal, it’s forgettable. It’s an exchange of money and role players.

The shame, if you want to call it that, is both Gyorko and Jay are interesting. And I mean beyond just being professional ballplayers. Neither will be treated as much, but there are points of significance here. Jay has an interesting background. Gyorko might still have an interesting future.

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Earlier this offseason, the Giants decided to let two veterans go who’ve been valued parts of the team. Both Nori Aoki and Yusmeiro Petit were on reasonable contracts, too. But, as general Bobby Evans explained at the Winter Meetings Monday night, keeping them on the roster may have impeded the team in their efforts to improve. Timing is important.

Petit is projected to produce about half a win as a reliever, and that’s in 65 innings. He’s more of a swing man, so three-quarters of a win, a win, those kinds of projections are reasonable. He was worth almost three wins between 2013 and 2014. And he’s projected to make just over $2 million in arbitration, so he would still be a value.

The Giants had an option on Aoki for this year. They could have had the quirky left fielder for $5.5 million, and he’s been worth at least a win and a half per season in all four seasons of his career. He’s projected for a win. The Mariners signed him for exactly the same contract he had with the Giants.

The team could have easily kept both and been praised for holding on to valuable depth pieces. But they want to improve their left field and starting pitcher production, and holding the two would have made doing those things harder.

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Jose Fernandez is available!

Just posted at https://t.co/gtnhE81RUu: Untouchable? Hmmm, Marlins talking to Dodgers, others about Jose Fernandez https://t.co/cI8CdFLWt5

— Jayson Stark (@jaysonst) December 7, 2015

Jose Fernandez is not available!

Mike Hill on Jose: "He's not available. We haven't made him available. But, it doesn't stop the phone calls from happening." #Marlins

— Joe Frisaro (@JoeFrisaro) December 8, 2015

Jose Fernandez is maybe still available!

Hearing tonight that Marlins think they're making progress with unspecified team. But a deal still appears unlikely https://t.co/NKI3zZClAq

— Jayson Stark (@jaysonst) December 8, 2015

There has been a lot of conflicting information about the Marlins’ willingness to move their ace over the last few days, though Hill’s assertion that they aren’t shopping him is mostly meaningless; you can effectively let everyone know a player is potentially available by entertaining offers and giving the impression that there is a level at which the team would agree to a deal. Rather than Hill saying Fernandez “isn’t available,” it’s maybe more realistic to suggest that Jose Fernandez is available, but only for asking prices that make him effectively unavailable, though the Marlins are at least willing to let teams pay an absurd price if they want to.

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