Ben and Sam banter about Hall of Fame voting and David Price, then talk about the recent trend toward teams acquiring multiple elite late-inning relievers.
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Dig around enough and you can make any transaction kind of interesting. Everybody in the upper ranks of professional baseball, after all, is only there because they possess extraordinary talent. Everyone has promise, so everyone can make a difference, so everyone deserves a certain amount of attention. Yet moves are considered relative to one another, and I’m not going to lie to you — Tuesday’s trade between the Padres and the Cardinals isn’t one you’ll think about very much. This is a move that’ll get lost in all the thoughts about dealing for Jose Fernandez.
From the Padres, the Cardinals are getting Jedd Gyorko and a bit over $7 million. From the Cardinals, the Padres are getting Jon Jay. Gyorko lines up to be a utility infielder, perhaps a platoon partner for Kolten Wong. The hope is that he does a little more than Pete Kozma or, earlier, Daniel Descalso. The Padres wanted out from under Gyorko’s long-term contract. Jay lines up to be a semi-regular outfielder, perhaps a platoon partner for Melvin Upton. He’s a free agent in a year, and the Padres seem unlikely to contend, and the Cardinals included Jay to offset some more money. Based on the intent of this deal, it’s forgettable. It’s an exchange of money and role players.
The shame, if you want to call it that, is both Gyorko and Jay are interesting. And I mean beyond just being professional ballplayers. Neither will be treated as much, but there are points of significance here. Jay has an interesting background. Gyorko might still have an interesting future.
Earlier this offseason, the Giants decided to let two veterans go who’ve been valued parts of the team. Both Nori Aoki and Yusmeiro Petit were on reasonable contracts, too. But, as general Bobby Evans explained at the Winter Meetings Monday night, keeping them on the roster may have impeded the team in their efforts to improve. Timing is important.
Petit is projected to produce about half a win as a reliever, and that’s in 65 innings. He’s more of a swing man, so three-quarters of a win, a win, those kinds of projections are reasonable. He was worth almost three wins between 2013 and 2014. And he’s projected to make just over $2 million in arbitration, so he would still be a value.
The Giants had an option on Aoki for this year. They could have had the quirky left fielder for $5.5 million, and he’s been worth at least a win and a half per season in all four seasons of his career. He’s projected for a win. The Mariners signed him for exactly the same contract he had with the Giants.
The team could have easily kept both and been praised for holding on to valuable depth pieces. But they want to improve their left field and starting pitcher production, and holding the two would have made doing those things harder.
Jose Fernandez is available!
Just posted at https://t.co/gtnhE81RUu: Untouchable? Hmmm, Marlins talking to Dodgers, others about Jose Fernandez https://t.co/cI8CdFLWt5
— Jayson Stark (@jaysonst) December 7, 2015
Jose Fernandez is not available!
Mike Hill on Jose: "He's not available. We haven't made him available. But, it doesn't stop the phone calls from happening." #Marlins
— Joe Frisaro (@JoeFrisaro) December 8, 2015
Jose Fernandez is maybe still available!
Hearing tonight that Marlins think they're making progress with unspecified team. But a deal still appears unlikely https://t.co/NKI3zZClAq
— Jayson Stark (@jaysonst) December 8, 2015
There has been a lot of conflicting information about the Marlins’ willingness to move their ace over the last few days, though Hill’s assertion that they aren’t shopping him is mostly meaningless; you can effectively let everyone know a player is potentially available by entertaining offers and giving the impression that there is a level at which the team would agree to a deal. Rather than Hill saying Fernandez “isn’t available,” it’s maybe more realistic to suggest that Jose Fernandez is available, but only for asking prices that make him effectively unavailable, though the Marlins are at least willing to let teams pay an absurd price if they want to.
| 11:37 |
: coming to you guys live from FanGraphs house in Nashville! start filling up that queue and we’ll get started in ~20 minutes
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| 11:58 |
: alright, let’s do this!
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| 11:58 |
: Please give me some good reasons not to be terrified of the Red Sox next year.
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| 11:59 |
: incredible bullpen, ace starter, Mookie Betts + Xander Bogaerts, and Hanley and Sandoval can’t possibly be worse
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| 11:59 |
: if I were a Red Sox fan, I’d be feeling pretty good about this year
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| 12:00 |
: If the White Sox were to sign Upton or Cespedes and trade for Frazier, would that make this legit contenders? Or would it be smarter for them to hold onto their top prospects and go after someone who would cost as much as Frazier (Lawrie, Asdrubal Cabrera, etc.)?
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With the Winter Meetings officially in high gear, some early themes and trends of the 2015-16 offseason are establishing themselves. Foremost among them is the substantial investment of years and mega-millions in the legion of starting pitchers on the free agent market. Sure, the game is flush with cash — and, certainly, there is quite a bit of high- to middle-end pitching talent on the market — but the first few officially consummated deals are coming in above projections in terms of years and/or dollars.
Zack Greinke, $34.3 million per year through his age-37 season? David Price, $31 million per year through his age-36 season? Hisashi Iwakuma, who has exceeded 180 innings pitched exactly once in his four seasons in the U.S., and who also endured nagging shoulder injuries during his time in Japan, guaranteed $15 million per year through his age-37 season?
John Lackey and Jeff Samardzija came in a bit closer to year/dollar projections, but they both bring their share of risk to the table. Another half-dozen starters are likely to put pen to paper in the next few days, and it’s a pretty safe bet that most of the contracts aren’t likely to end well.
Mike Leake, who just completed his age-27 season, could be one of those. He’s been connected to a handful of clubs, and is often mentioned as a consolation prize for the clubs missing out on the Greinkes, Prices and Johnny Cuetos. Though his age and durability would appear to be significant plusses, he seemingly oozes league-averageness. How much, and for how long, are clubs going to be willing to guarantee a pitcher with a round career ERA- of 100?
Zack Greinke is one of the best pitchers in major league baseball, and as a result, he had no shortage of suitors before ultimately signing a contract in excess of $200 million. In addition to money, the Diamondbacks also surrendered their first-round pick next year, the 13th overall selection. While it would not be quite true to say that Greinke cost “only money,” the Diamondbacks did not give up a single active player in order to acquire Greinke.
Cole Hamels, both the same age as Greinke and roughly as effective over the course of his career, was traded over the summer. Hamels’ cost was not “only money,” as the Texas Rangers gave up six players, including three high-end prospects (and Matt Harrison’s contract), for Jake Diekman and the opportunity to pay Cole Hamels around $100 million over the next four years. While the costs come in different forms, we can compare the two to see how the trade market this past summer compared to this offseason’s free agent market for Greinke.
The Los Angeles Dodgers prioritized Cole Hamels at the trade deadline, but subsequently missed out by refusing to part with their best prospects. The team then prioritized bringing Greinke back, only to be outbid by division rival Arizona. The cost for both players was high, and it is difficult to say whether the Dodgers made a mistake passing on both players, but we should be able to compare the costs for both to see if the Dodgers could have kept a comparable pitcher for less than the amount Greinke received in free agency.
As far as comparisons go, Greinke did have a better year in 2015, but their cumulative WAR graphs (shown below) reveal two remarkably similar careers in terms of value.
In addition, both players are projected to do well next season. By Steamer, Greinke is set for a 4.2 WAR while Hamels comes in a bit behind at 3.6 WAR for the 2016 season. Using those projections as the baseline for future production, we can get an estimate for their value over the next few years. With deferrals, Greinke’s deal turns out to be $194.5 million over six seasons, per Ken Rosenthal. Given the consistency of both Greinke and Hamels, for the purposes of this analysis, we will assume the players will age well.
In a deal which will presumably make more sense when all the details come out than it does now, the Cardinals are reportedly set to acquire Jedd Gyorko for Jon Jay, with perhaps other players (or money) being in the deal.
Source: Jon Jay is going to San Diego. https://t.co/9GHVvrxqDV
— Derrick Goold (@dgoold) December 8, 2015
The Padres need a center fielder and more left-handed bats, so Jay to San Diego makes plenty of sense, since he mostly lost his job in St. Louis due to the Cardinals outfield depth. But the Gyorko to STL part of this is a little tougher to figure, given that the Cardinals already have three good players at the the infield spots where Gyorko could fit. Matt Carpenter is entrenched at third, Jhonny Peralta is locked in at shortstop, and Kolten Wong established himself as their second baseman a year ago, and Gyorko is at best a platoon option at second and occasional starter at 3B/SS. He’s a solid enough depth piece for a team that needs a decent backup middle infielder, but there’s also this.
Assuming the buyout of the final year of that deal, Gyorko is due $33 million over the next four seasons. Yes, free agent prices are going up, but I don’t see how Gyorko gets 4/$33M on the open market, especially not to play in a reserve role. Chase Utley got 1/$7M to play more than Gyorko will. Cliff Pennignton got 2/$4M to serve as the Angels utility infielder. It’s not that hard to argue that Gyorko’s youth makes him preferable to both of those guys, but 4/$33M for a guy who is going to play 2-3 times per week? I don’t think MLB is there yet.
So I’m guessing that the Padres are either eating a good chunk of this deal, or there’s another player going to San Diego that will help balance the scales a bit. Perhaps in the end, this will be the Andrew Cashner deal or something, with Gyorko included to just lower the price in prospects the Cardinals had to pay to get something else. That’s total speculation, but it would make more sense than the Cardinals taking on $33 million in salary for a utility infielder.
Following Boston’s signing of David Price, reports indicated that the Cardinals were $30 million short of the $217 million contract Price would eventually receive from the Red Sox. The deal certainly indicates that Boston was willing to spend this offseason. Given the Cardinals’ pursuit of the left-hander, however, you’d assume that St. Louis also has some money to throw around.
Except this is weird: their current roster has $126 million of commitments on it right now, and they spent $122 million on last year’s roster, and that was the most they’d ever spent on a roster. So maybe the Cardinals don’t have money to throw around. Maybe they just wanted David Price.
Still, they have losses and need to try to get better to stay atop their improving division. Losing Lance Lynn, John Lackey, and Jason Heyward means losing almost 10 projected wins.
Their uncanny ability to find 27-year-old usable bats in their farm system means that they can move some guys around. They probably won’t have to pay for the full 10 wins on the market. But they probably will have to do something. What?
Episode 615
Dave Cameron is both (a) the managing editor of FanGraphs and (b) the guest on this particular edition of FanGraphs Audio, during which edition he discusses — on the back porch of a house in Nashville, Tennessee — the terrific litany of signings to have occurred since his most recent appearance on the program.
This edition of the program is sponsored by Draft, the first truly mobile fantasy sports app. Compete directly against idiot host Carson Cistulli by clicking here.
Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.
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Audio after the jump. (Approximately 38 min play time.)
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