FanGraphs Baseball

According to Jeff Passan, the A’s have signed left-handed pitcher Rich Hill to a one year, $6 million deal.

Source: Rich Hill agrees to terms with Oakland. One-year deal for $6 million, pending physical.

— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) November 18, 2015

Rich Hill had a big market, and one team said it had a bigger-money offer on table than Oakland's. Hill liked A's guaranteed rotation spot.

— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) November 18, 2015

This morning, I ranked Hill at #4 on my Free Agent Bargains post, and wrote the following.

#4: Rich Hill, LHP
Crowd’s Estimate: 1 year, $6 million
Dave’s Estimate: 1 year, $7 million
2016 Steamer Projection: +2.5 WAR

Probably the hardest guy on the market to value, Hill went from a non-roster invite to a fascinating test case in extreme performance in small samples with his dominating September run for the Red Sox. His success came out of nowhere, and it would be irresponsible to expect those four starts to represent some kind of new level of ability that he reached at the age of 35, but at the same time, we also don’t want to entirely ignore the fact that he put together a 29 inning stretch of Kershawian performance.

Over that four start stretch, hitters made contact on only 75% of their swings at his pitches in the strike zone, which is the kind of number that tends to identify skill more quickly than a lot of others. He’s not going to sustain that number — Max Scherzer led all MLB starters at 79% last year — but given that his lack of a track record is going to keep the commitment short, I think it’s worth betting a decent amount of 2016 salary on the chance that there Hill’s crazy finish to 2015 suggests that he’s figured something out.

No one should expect ace-like performance, and you’re basically buying a lottery ticket, but we’ve seen enough Cliff Lee transformations to not entirely discount the idea that Hill could be a quality arm for the team that takes the risk. Maybe he won’t be able to stay healthy; maybe it will turn out to be a colossal fluke. But for the kind of dollars that get you a mediocre bench player with some clubhouse chemistry voodoo, I’d take a flyer on Hill and just see what I get. If there’s even a 20% chance he’s a quality starting pitcher next year, throwing $5 to $10 million his way is a worthwhile use of funds for a team that needs to buy upside on the cheap.

The A’s are the embodiment of a team that needs to buy upside on the cheap, and this is exactly the kind of risk that makes sense for a team in their position. This is similar — though even more risky — to the Scott Kazmir bet they made two years ago, and that turned out quite well for them; it’s not a huge surprise to see them go back to this well. Hill’s upside makes this kind of gamble worthwhile, even if there’s a pretty high likelihood that he doesn’t really give them much value next year. It’s probably best to look at Hill kind of like a prospect, with an absurdly high bust rate but also a chance of returning a lot of value if he pans out.

Anyone who’s ever tried to analyze baseball has had the occasions of coming away fairly humbled by the experience. I’ve been made to look stupid at least dozens of times, but one that really sticks out is a blog entry from May 2007, when I figured a mid-30s Raul Ibanez was about out of bat speed and power. From the date of that entry through the end of his career, Ibanez batted more than 4,000 times, drilling 166 home runs while posting a 112 wRC+ and making something like $50 million. Ibanez remained with the Mariners, left them, came back more than a half-decade later, and that year was the best hitter on the team. He was never toast until he was. It’s hard to look into the toaster.

Next season is going to be David Ortiz’s last. The official announcement is apparently coming Wednesday, but the word is out now, and it’s unlikely Ortiz is suddenly going to reverse course next November. So 2016 will bring another farewell tour for another franchise icon, and at every stop, people are going to share their memories. We all have our own, and if we’re being honest, we all have several. Among mine is that, time and time again, it’s been speculated that Ortiz was about at the end of the road. It’s a perfectly reasonable position to take with a player getting up there in years, but to Ortiz’s credit, there have been slumps, but he still hasn’t actually declined. He turns 40 tomorrow.

Read the rest of this entry »

Ben and Sam discuss why three free agents accepted qualifying offers, then break down both sides of the Andrelton Simmons trade.

Ever have one of those days where as soon as you wake up, things begin going awry? Simple tasks suddenly seem difficult? You burn your toast. You go to feed the dog, but it’s dark in the pantry and you accidentally dump the food in the adjacent water dish rather than the food bowl. You’re in the shower, hands lathered up with shampoo, and you feel a tickle in your eye. You know better than to scratch it but it’s early and you haven’t had your coffee and the whole time you’re raising that hand towards your face your mind is telling you no no no stop right now damnit you’re going to ruin your morning idiot and then you just plunge that finger in there and scratch away. I’m talking a deep prod.

As the burn persists, you begin to stew. Why? How? Am I not a full-grown adult, capable of moving from simple task to simple task throughout my life without being met by wretched, shameful failure along each step of the way? Have I made it this far on good fortune alone? Once the burn subsides, you consider going back to bed. Just for 30 minutes. Pull the covers up, set an alarm, get yourself up in a half hour and pretend like none of that ever happened. Reset. But you know you can’t. It’s too late now. You’ve already gotten up and started the day; it would be a coward’s move to let it beat you this quickly. Besides, you’ve got to start writing your morning blog post.

* * *

Sometimes, pitchers throw a really bad pitch.

We explored this topic yesterday with regards to the non-competitive pitch, or a pitch that ends up several feet from the center of the strike zone. Plenty of these pitches come on two-strike counts, which makes sense. In two-strike counts pitchers tend to work outside the zone, leaving less room for error for the difference between a slightly-outside pitch and a way-outside pitch. Consider also that pitchers are usually trying to throw strikes, meaning there’s less muscle memory for the times that they’re trying not to throw strikes. In a way, it goes against what their body is most accustomed to doing. You’d figure that every now and then, one would slip.

It’s one thing for a pitcher to do this in a two-strike count when he’s already thrown 83 pitches that day and he’s not really even trying to throw a strike. Sometimes, pitchers throw a really bad pitch. But sometimes, pitchers throw a really bad pitch on the first pitch of the game. Pitchers always want to throw a strike on the first pitch of the game! Like, all of them. It’s one of the only things in baseball that’s an absolute guarantee. It’s literally the only reason Alcides Escobar became a thing in the postseason, because he decided to start taking advantage of the most obvious, telegraphed plan of attack in all of sport. Every pitcher wants to go out there and pound one in the zone. Every one. Yet, sometimes, it still doesn’t happen. Sometimes, a pitcher puts his jersey on, laces up those cleats, grabs his hat and his glove, walks out on the mound and just shoves a fingerful of shampoo in his eye. The same thoughts go through his mind. The why, the how, the can I go on or should I just go back to bed? Too late now. He’s got a game to pitch. As for the why and the how, it’s impossible to say for sure, but we can give our best guess.

No. 10 – Garrett Richards

• Location: 3.86 feet from the center of the PITCHf/x strike zone
• At-bat result: Fly out
• Outing result: 7.0 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 0 HR, 2 BB, 5 K (1.99 ERA, 2.99 FIP)
• Explanation: Shampoo in the eye pre-game. These athletes really aren’t that different from you and I.

Read the rest of this entry »

While the early off-season has mostly been driven by trades — with Jerry Dipoto seemingly involved in about 80% of them — we’re reaching the point of the winter where we should expect to start seeing some free agents come off the board. Teams have had a few weeks to negotiate with various options, narrow down who might actually be a viable acquisition, and pick a direction in which to head. While there’s often a lot of activity at the winter meetings, a number of significant free agents likely won’t wait three more weeks before they pick their next home, and so I’d expect a few big dominos to start falling into place relatively soon.

So, with that background, it’s time for my annual list of free agent recommendations. For the last few years I’ve picked through the crop of free agents and selected a handful of players I think would be good values at the prices that we expect players to sign for, and as you’d expect, looking back at those recommendations is a pretty mixed bag. Teams following my suggestions maybe would have landed some bargains in Francisco Liriano, Scott Kazmir, and Russell Martin, but they also would have been stuck with Omar Infante, Nick Swisher, and Melvin Upton. Picking free agents is fraught with risk, and it’s not like we have it all figured out over here.

But as is the case every year, there are some guys that I think would be worth pursuing, as my perception of their value is higher than what we think the market is going to give them. In some cases, MLB teams might agree with me and drive up the bidding to a reasonable point — Brian McCann a few years ago, for instance, when the crowd’s estimate proved way too low — but some of these guys will likely sign a diminished price due to some flaws that teams discount more heavily than I do. In my view, these are the guys who are present the best opportunity for upside value in this free agent class.

Read the rest of this entry »

Read the rest of this entry »

The sabermetric movement has grown up over the last decade. A thing that you regularly hear now that you maybe wouldn’t have heard 10 years ago is this: I don’t know. So that’s where we start today. We don’t know what the going rate for ace relief pitchers is. That said, we do have one strong data point following this weekend’s trade of Craig Kimbrel by the Padres to the Red Sox, and it suggests that the cost to grab one of the best relievers in baseball is now substantial, akin to what it might have cost to get an ace starter some years ago.

Kimbrel is an elite relief pitcher, but it was surprising to see Boston acquire him for four prospects, including two top-50 prospects in outfielder Manuel Margot and shortstop Javier Guerra. On top of that already substantial talent the Red Sox tossed in starting pitcher Logan Allen and infielder Carlos Asuaje. That’s a ton of young talent to give up for anyone, let alone for three years of a reliever. It looks quite possibly as though the Red Sox have reset the cost for acquiring a top reliever. But have they?

Read the rest of this entry »

The Reds rumors are coming in hot and fast, or at least hot and fast for the weeks right before Thanksgiving, when most of baseball seems to be watching football. Mostly, it’s the obvious scuttlebutt: Aroldis Chapman and Brandon Phillips are available, for packages of varying quality, and mostly for players close to the major leagues.

Depending on what you think of the Reds and their current competitiveness, you’ll read “listening to any and all offers” differently. If you like the Reds’ young starting rotation, you think you might sell anything that’s not nailed down for 2017, meaning the focus is on jettisoning Jay Bruce and getting a haul for the Cuban closer. If you think there’s no hope and the division is too awesome for the Reds, you think they should probably trade Todd Frazier, and maybe even Joey Votto.

Read the rest of this entry »

The Mariners needed a center fielder after they sent Brad Miller and Austin Jackson packing over the past year. They had an extra reliever, maybe, after they acquired Joaquin Benoit from the Padres last week. And, even given all the flaws in their new (probably platoon) center fielder, it’s hard not to like such a low-risk, high-reward move. Even if you value relievers highly.

But these are the things you have to talk about when you try to evaluate the trade that sent center fielder Leonys Martin and reliever Anthony Bass to the Mariners and reliever Tom Wilhelmsen and outfielder James Jones to the Rangers.

Read the rest of this entry »

This past Thursday, the author endeavored to publish here a pair of leaderboards featuring the top average velocities — as recorded by PITCHf/x — among pitchers currently participating in the Arizona Fall League. What the post ultimately served to document, however, was less a collection of hard-throwing prospects and more the author’s own (and already well-documented) incompetence.

Having failed to communicate with MLB Farm’s Daren Willman before publishing that dispatch, what became clear immediately — by way largely of the enthusiastic comments left by readers — was that the data was incomplete. As a result, certain pitchers who’d definitely appeared in a stadium equipped with PITCHf/x cameras were omitted.

I’ve spoken with Willman in the meantime, however, and — after certain generous efforts on his part — it would appear as though the data is currently as robust at it ever will be. That having been established, what follows is an updated pair of leaderboards featuring the top velocities among those AFL pitchers — both overall and also among starters only — who’ve appeared at either of the two PITCHf/x-equipped stadiums. Following those leaderboards are three observations of limited merit.

The pitch type FF denotes a four-seam fastball; FT, a two-seamer. Count denotes the number of the relevant pitch type to have been recorded by PITCHf/x cameras.

Read the rest of this entry »