FanGraphs Baseball

Kris Bryant finally did it. After not hitting a home run in 19 games following his call up, he went out on Saturday in Milwaukee and clubbed a Kyle Lohse slider 389 feet out to left-center. The homer was the one number conspicuously missing from his season statistics, but it was always coming: the 23-year-old put up famous power numbers in the minor leagues, he’s been hitting inside fastballs to the warning track in right-center, and there was nothing telling us anything was wrong. Part of his power drought was surely his ongoing adjustment to major league pitching, something all rookies have to contend with. However, his treatment by pitchers so far shows just how unique Bryant might be, and puts him in a rare class of hitters.

Unsurprisingly, there was something special about the home run Bryant hit, beyond it being the first of many in his career. Let’s take a look at it, slowed down at impact, with a bit of an effect on the ball to make it more visible:

There are a few things to note: it was a slider, it was on the first pitch of the at-bat, and it was over the outer third of the plate. It caught more of the strike zone than Lohse wanted, but it wasn’t the worst hanging slider anyone has seen. This serves first and foremost as a reminder that Kris Bryant is very talented at hitting baseballs. It also informs us of the approach we’ve seen pitchers use when attacking Bryant so far in his young career, and the adjustments he needs to make in order to be successful at this level.

Lost in the frenzy over a big power prospect not hitting home runs is the fact that hitting for power requires getting good pitches to hit (unless you’re Vladimir Guerrero). Usually, a hitter doesn’t view a first-pitch slider on the outer third of the plate to be a great candidate for a home run to left-center field, but this is where Bryant currently finds himself.

To begin to illustrate that point, let’s start with a list. Here are the names of players since the year 2000 with at least 17 walks in their first 21 career games:

• Kosuke Fukudome (18)
• Carlos Santana (17)
• Adam Dunn (17)
• Andy LaRoche (17)
• Kris Bryant (17)

That’s it – five players. Not all of these hitters lit the world on fire, but they were/are known as high OBP/power guys (with the exception of Andy LaRoche). The bottom line is that this happens very rarely, and Bryant is being treated in a unique way usually reserved for a certain type of hitter.

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Position: TrackMan Cape Cod Data & Operations Intern

Location: Cape Cod, Mass.

Description:
At TrackMan Baseball we measure stuff – the speed, spin and movement of pitched and hit baseballs.

We do this using proprietary 3D Doppler radar hardware and software. The majority of Major League teams use our products and services for player development and evaluation. We also work with collegiate, Japanese and Korean teams, premier amateur baseball organizations, broadcasters and equipment manufacturers. Our business is growing fast. By the start of next season we will have a network of radars installed in more than 100 stadiums on three continents, and dozens of remote systems traveling the US.
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The other day, Craig Kimbrel blew a save for the first time in — I don’t know — awhile. He was given a two-run lead and he retired the first two batters he faced, but then he unraveled. In a pinch, the game was off to extras. Kimbrel is one of those relievers for whom any hiccup is notable. And when you notice Kimbrel’s blown save, you notice something else. Kimbrel, in a tiny sample, is sitting on a 5.68 ERA. If you add up the ERAs from his first five seasons in the majors, you get a sum of 6.37. Something’s a little wonky. Or nothing’s wonky at all, and this is just early-season randomness. Regardless, Kimbrel catches your eye with a 5-something ERA. He’d catch your eye with a 3-something ERA.

Is there anything going on we should know about? Kimbrel’s pitch velocities are fine. Kimbrel’s pitch mix is normal. His arm slot hasn’t changed. So there’s no easy conclusion, but Ken Rosenthal spoke to somebody with something to say:

The report from one uniformed observer: “His command was terrible. He threw three pitches that almost hit guys in the head. He even threw a pickoff to first with no first baseman there. And on the pitch that was hit for a double to tie the game, he missed by three feet.”

Is it that simple? Is Kimbrel just missing his command? Is that why his strikeout rate is down? The source was talking about Kimbrel’s blown save in Arizona. So I decided to investigate Kimbrel’s blown save in Arizona.

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Episode 561
Dave Cameron is both (a) the managing editor of FanGraphs and (b) the guest on this particular edition of FanGraphs Audio, during which edition he analyzes all baseball — in particular that part of the game concerning the next collective bargaining agreement — by means of a new, possibly better microphone.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 33 min play time.)

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Episode 560
Kiley McDaniel is both (a) the lead prospect analyst for FanGraphs and also (b) the guest on this particular edition of FanGraphs Audio — during which edition he discusses which GMs are attending which amateur games, his way-too-early mock draft from last week, and the uncertainty of the D-backs’ uncertainty.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 48 min play time.)

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Position: Minnesota Twins Applications Programmer, Baseball Systems

Location: Minneapolis

Description:
This position offers wide-ranging exposure to current programming models and methods in a fast-paced Agile environment. As a member of the front office, collaborate with the Baseball Operations staff to develop, deliver, and maintain data driven solutions for player evaluation, player development, and statistical analytics. Ideally, the candidate will be a core .Net applications programmer with experience focused on SQL Server data integration and back-end API services to consume and present new perspectives on an evolving set of interesting sources of data. Strong communication and interpersonal skills will enable the candidate to enjoy direct relationships with product users.
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Over the weekend, the White Sox scored 16 runs against the Reds in three games, and just Sunday they got the best of the impossible Aroldis Chapman, walking off after three consecutive hits. With that in mind, this would seem a funny time to be critical of the White Sox position players, but then, for one thing, the season’s been a lot longer than a couple days. And, you know what? So much content is published with timing in mind. People write about a player after he has a big game. It’s natural, but you can think of it as a form of bias. In this post, let’s not be swayed by recency. Most recently, White Sox position players have been good. Let’s knock ’em down a few pegs!

You already know it’s been a struggle for the Sox, and after spending the offseason trying to build a contender, already they’ve approached a decision point. It’s not time yet for the Sox to pull the plug, but it’s an increasingly likely outcome. At this moment, the White Sox sit dead last in the majors in team WAR, which means they rank even behind the Phillies. People have their differences with WAR, but history shows that WAR and team performance are very closely connected. Good teams don’t rank last. (Good teams don’t rank close to last.)

On the pitching side, things could be better and they could be worse. The team sits in the middle of the pack, which seems appropriate for such a top-heavy roster. There are clearly good pitchers, and there are clearly replaceable pitchers. But as for the position players, collectively it’s been a nightmare. By WAR, the Sox are in last place, and they’re in last by more than a full win. By WAR, the Sox have performed below replacement-level. This is a disaster, so let’s break it down.

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Remember when nobody wanted Nelson Cruz? He’d been with the Rangers but his contract had ended and steroids and everyone was like, “Nooooo thanks.” Well, not exactly everybody. After a long time the Mariners called and reportedly had a short deal done with Cruz before the front office nixed it. I picture former team president Chuck Armstrong in a military uniform with puffy pants shouting in a fake English accent, “No, no, not Mariner material!”

Finally, after waiting an entire off-season, Baseball’s Yukon called and Cruz signed a one-year deal with Baltimore and hit about a billion homers. Then he was a free agent again. It was at that point that the Mariners realized the error of their ways.

“But I thought you said…”
“Tut tut, my boy. Cruz!”

Some years to go, but so far the Mariners have nothing to complain about. Cruz leads baseball with 14 homers, three more than the closest imitator, and is currently slugging over .700. He’s done this even though he’s forsaken Texas and Baltimore, two hitter friendly parks, especially for right-handed home run hitters, for Seattle, a park a few nudges on the other side of hitter friendliness. You would think that would curtail his home run activities at least a bit, but so far, no problem for ol’ Nelly. How is Cruz still hitting homers despite his unfriendly surroundings? Let’s see!

It makes sense to write about Baseball’s home run leader in mid-May, but as you might imagine for the league’s home run leader, we here at FanGraphs have written about him before. Jeff Sullivan wrote a piece on Cruz on April 20, but it’s been three weeks and Cruz is still crushing it and we’re nothing if not completists here so why not take another crack. Read the rest of this entry »

Ben and Sam banter about the Astros and discuss what Bryce Harper’s hot streak means.

Troy Tulowitzki has been an integral piece of the Rockies lineup for years now. He’s racked up an impressive 34 WAR in his 10 seasons in Colorado, but it’s not clear if he’ll be a part of the team’s future plans. And if he is, it’s not clear that he should be.

The Rockies don’t have the looks of a playoff team this year. This is partly because they’re 11-17 and bringing up the rear in the National League West. However, even before the season began, the Rockies looked more like existers than contenders. Given the collection of players on their roster, they appear to be something worse than a .500 team on paper.

Teams like this don’t have much use for an aging star shortstop. As a result, it very well might be in Colorado’s best interest to hit the reset button and trade Tulowitzki in exchange for players who stand a better chance of helping the next playoff-bound Rockies team. After nearly a decade of Troy Tulowitzki at shortstop, it might be time for the Rockies to move on.

That brings us to Trevor Story. If Colorado does ultimately deal Tulo, and his replacement comes from within, Story will likely be the man getting the nod. Not all that long ago, Story looked like a big league shortstop in the making. The Rockies selected him 45th overall out of high school in 2011, and he quickly became a consensus top 100 prospect after a .277/.367/.505 performance as a teenager in the South Atlantic League. At that point, it seemed like he was only a couple of years away from knocking at the door of the big leagues. Read the rest of this entry »