FanGraphs Baseball

The Astros have made it clear that they intend to upgrade their bullpen this winter, chasing Andrew Miller and David Robertson with significant four year offers before watching both sign with other teams. So this morning, they turned to Plan C, reportedly signing Luke Gregerson to a three year, $18.5 million contract, according to Bob Nightengale.

The big question hanging over this move, and the pursuits of Miller and Robertson, is why the Astros are spending money to sign free agent relievers. Expensive bullpen arms have historically proven to provide the lowest return on investment in baseball, and the Astros are not in a position to sacrifice significant future value for a modest short-term boost. Why would a team that has been so set on building for the future suddenly shift gears and sign an aging reliever who probably won’t still be an effective arm by the time the Astros are ready to contend?

Well, I’m just speculating here, but perhaps the Astros signed Gregerson with the clear intention of trading him this summer for something that could be a part of their future. As we see every July, the markup on useful bullpen arms is ridiculously high in-season, and with so many teams currently in go-for-it mode, the Astros are positioned to be one of the few teams able to take advantage of what should be a very strong seller’s market.

When everyone is buying, being the only team with stuff to sell is a great position to be in, but first, you have to have things that the buyers want. As long as he continues to pitch relatively well, contending teams will want Gregerson in July, especially if the Astros agree to pick up a bit of his future salary. And in effect, the Astros could essentially be buying themselves a pretty decent prospect.

Let’s say they hold him until mid-July, so they’d have paid him $3 million of his $6 million 2015 salary, then agreed to pick up $5 million of the remaining $15 million he was still owed. An acquiring team would only have to absorb $10 million in salaries for 2.5 years of relief work, which would look like a bargain at a time when there are going to be few other options to upgrade in-season. And so, the Astros could likely extract a solid young player in return, essentially buying that prospect for $8 million in salary.

The Astros have money, so they can afford to gamble the $18.5 million in guaranteed money that Gregerson can still be effective for a few months. If it doesn’t work out, well, they’re out $6 million per year in a few years where they probably weren’t going to win anyway, and premium free agents aren’t taking their money until they get a little more respectable anyway. Yeah, Gregerson could suck, and then they’d have “wasted” that money, but it’s only wasted cash if you could have spent it on something better. If no one wants to sign with the Astros, and the alternative was to not spend it, then it’s not a waste even if he’s lousy and nukes his own trade value.

If he’s not lousy, and his trade value is buoyed by the Astros willingness to pay down part of this contract in July, then the Astros might have just found a way to make themselves an even more attractive seller in a market where there is going to be very little competition.

We all knew that the time was coming. The Cubs themselves talked rather openly about it. Blessed with the best system in baseball, the Cubs were coming up on a period of hopeful contention. The soft target, for many, was 2016. By that point, enough prospects might’ve established themselves, and the Cubs would be able to gun for the playoffs. But it was always reasonable to think the Cubs might try to accelerate things. That they might hit that transition between stockpiling and spending, and spend big to hurry things up. There was a way for the Cubs to become a potential playoff team next season. Whether you think they’re there yet, the Cubs have now checked off a lot of boxes.

In Jason Hammel, the Cubs just locked up a pretty talented starter for the back of the rotation. In Miguel Montero, the Cubs upgraded behind the plate, getting kind of a poor man’s Russell Martin equivalent. And now the Cubs have their big fish, agreeing with Jon Lester for six years and $155 million. For Lester, the Cubs were long considered a favorite, but there’s a difference between something being possible and something getting done. We can now, officially, say this: the Cubs are ready to try to go to the playoffs. There’s no mistaking their intentions, and Lester’s a giant upgrade.

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Ben and Sam banter about contradictory rumors and the biggest moves made early at the Winter Meetings.

After a very long courtship, Jon Lester has decided to pitch for the Chicago Cubs.

Jon Lester, Cubs agree on six-year, $155M deal, sources tell Yahoo Sports. Red Sox are runners-up. Their final bid: six for $135M.

— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) December 10, 2014

Passan also adds that the Giants were willing to stretch to $168 million over seven years, so Lester took a slightly smaller total guarantee from Chicago. Lester immediately becomes the Cubs ace, and along with the addition of Miguel Montero earlier today, signals to the rest of the National League Central that the Cubs are moving up their window to win.

We’ll have a full-write up on this deal in a bit, but for now, let me encourage you to read the things that we’ve already published on Lester this week.

How Much to Believe in Jon Lester’s 2014, by Jeff Sullivan.
How Will Jon Lester Age?, by Tony Blengino.

Lester’s one of the best pitchers in the game, and he’s now getting paid like it. Whether the Cubs can improve the rest of their roster enough to make this deal pay off remains to be seen, but a team with a strong future suddenly has a much stronger present.

At the end of November, the author wrote a post concerning Atlanta’s acquisition of Corban Joseph entitled — for purposes simultaneously of information and also very mild amusement — entitled “Atlanta Signs Basically Tommy La Stella“. The main point of that brief dispatch: that Corban Joseph, a below-average defender with compelling and probably overlooked offensive skills, was a sensible and economical replacement for the recently traded La Stella.

What I didn’t know at the time — indeed, couldn’t have known — is that the Atlantans would less than two weeks later acquire a player arguably more similar to La Stella than even Joseph himself. Today, the Braves signed former Oakland infielder Alberto Callaspo to a one-year, $3 million deal.

Here are the Steamer projections for the triumvirate, prorated in each case to 550 plate appearances:

Callaspo is older than La Stella by some margin, but possesses similar defensive value, nearly identical plate-discipline projections, and also probably a power profile that more nearly resembles La Stella’s. Of some interest with regard to Callaspo is his batted-ball skill. Over that past three years, Callaspo has produced just a .259 BABIP — one of the lowest figures, that, among qualified batters during that same interval. The Atlanta front office probably has some feelings about how much that says about Callaspo’s hit tool. In any case, it would appear as though Callaspo is the favorite to start at second base for Atlanta presently.

The Pirates had reportedly made re-signing Francisco Liriano their top priority, and on Tuesday they officially got it done, with Liriano returning for three years and $39 million. Dave wrote a little thing earlier and concluded it was a pretty good deal, as these things go. Here is that little thing. Okay, great, we’re done here!

If it’s analysis of the move you want, it’s pretty simple and Dave touched on the major points. Nothing involving Francisco Liriano could be described as low-risk, but the terms themselves aren’t too risky. Liriano’s effective when he pitches, and he hasn’t actually had an arm problem related to pitching since 2011. Last year he went on the DL with an oblique strain. The year before, he had an arm fracture after taking a fall. These aren’t good things, but Liriano probably isn’t as fragile as his reputation. He misses bats, he likes being in Pittsburgh, and the Pirates had a need. There’s not really anything not to like, here.

Yet perhaps you want to know more about Liriano. He came to the Pirates labeled as an intriguing but frustrating live arm, with stuff and poor location. He still isn’t particularly stingy with the walks, but he’s been able to push himself over a hump, getting to the other side of tolerability, and a whole lot of it has to do with his changeup. The Pirates love what Liriano’s done with his changeup.

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The image above represents a landmark moment in the author’s own life — and perhaps the life of anyone who derives pleasure from those instances in which the previously marginalized become less marginalized — insofar, I mean, as it demonstrates how, earlier today, Marcus Semien was the most searched-for player at FanGraphs.

On the one hand, it’s not particularly surprising that Semien would be a person of some interest at the moment: he, along with assorted other pieces, was just traded to Oakland in exchange for talented right-hander Jeff Samardzija and still-alive prospect Michael Ynoa. Curious Oakland fans — and curious other sorts of fans, too — are curious about the new additions to the club.

What’s is surprising, however, is that Semien might serve as the “centerpiece” — or an approximation thereof — in a deal that sees Jeff Samardzija (even if it’s just a year of Jeff Samardzija) going the other way.

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It’s a stunning reversal, is what it looks like. And it is a stunning reversal, if you just think about where the A’s were in the middle of last season. It was then that they dealt Addison Russell for shorter-term help. It was then that they dealt Yoenis Cespedes for shorter-term help. It was then that the A’s were very obviously going for it, and it was going well enough for them right up until the later innings in that game against the Royals. Now the A’s are shedding, only a handful of months later, and this isn’t what we’re accustomed to. Not from your average baseball team. The A’s are deliberately taking steps backward on the win curve.

They dealt Josh Donaldson. They dealt Brandon Moss. They dealt Jeff Samardzija. Of course, they don’t have Cespedes, and Jason Hammel is gone, and Luke Gregerson is a free agent, and Jed Lowrie is a free agent, and so on and so forth. You know what the A’s look like, because they’ve been one of the most popular conversation topics over the last few weeks. People everywhere are trying to figure out what Billy Beane is doing. The funny thing about it is Billy Beane is saying exactly what he’s doing, and why. The A’s are just doing what a team like the A’s pretty much has to do, if it wants to remain in any way competitive in the long-term.

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Clubs rebuild. It’s a part of the process. Just look at what’s happening in Oakland right now. Every year, franchises begin rebuilds, continue rebuilds and occasionally start them all over again when the first one sinks into the swamp.

Rebuilds take patience. They can be exciting, and they can be frustrating. Those feelings are not mutually exclusive, in this case. The start of a rebuild can be exciting, because it ushers what is oftentimes a much-needed change in direction. There are typically big transactions that occur at the start of a rebuild, and big transactions are exciting.

The middle part of the rebuild sucks, and is the frustrating part. For several years, the on-field major league product is bad, and watching bad teams isn’t fun. The hopes of the team lie in minor league prospects, and minor league prospects don’t always pan out. When they don’t pan out is when the rebuild starts all over again, and that’s the worst kind of rebuild.

But as exciting as the beginning of a rebuild can be, nothing tops the realization of a successful rebuild and the expectation of imminent success that looms. Years of patience are awarded by the arrival of top prospects reaching their potential, coupled with a couple of marquee additions to compliment the shiny budding plants that are the homegrown prospects. The successful rebuild culminates with the flip of a switch, seemingly overnight, from “rebuild” mode to “contend.” It’s as liberating a switch as there is to be flipped as a front office executive of a major league franchise, and it’s a switch the Cubs are flipping as we speak.
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