FanGraphs Baseball

Last month, writing primarily about Dan Duquette’s Orioles, Jeff Sullivan observed the strong correlation between a team’s success and that same team’s ability to avoid players who produce negative WAR figures. As early as 2010, in fact, Jeff Zimmerman addressed a similar concept here with also similar findings. The conclusion of both pieces: avoiding blatant weaknesses/positional holes is probably just as relevant to a team’s success as acquiring or retaining superstar types — while also generally costing much less.

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Kole Calhoun tore his way through the minor leagues. He hit the ground running in his 2013 debut. Why was there any surprise when he put up a top-ten season for an American League outfielder this year?

There are reasons, or maybe we could say excuses, for Calhoun’s dismissal as a prospect. He never made a top 100 Baseball America list, he never made that organization’s top 10 prospects on the Angels, and there wasn’t much buzz about him coming up. He’s not tall — at five foot ten — and his Baseball America writeup said his tools were “uninspiring.”

And once he started putting up minor league stats, there were reasons to dismiss those as well. Calhoun signed as 22 year old out of college. He was a year older than the average player in rookie ball, so maybe that helped with the .292/.411/.505 slash line at Orem. He was older than average in A-ball, so maybe we shouldn’t gaze too longingly at that .324/.410/.547 line in Inland Empire. And Triple-A? That was Salt Lake in the Pacific Coast League. Obviously his .298/.367/.507 there was inflated.

So there were reasons, or maybe excuses. But after Calhoun debuted in 2013 with offense that was 27% better than league average, he faced a new struggle last season. “Obviously they’re going to have a lot more information on me now then they’ve had in the past,” the player admitted in late 2014. “It’s my job to understand what they are trying to do and know what my weaknesses are and not really give them too much of a chance to expose them.”

It was nice that you were as good as your numbers promised, kid, but can you keep it up when they’ve got a book on you?

Read the rest on Just a Bit Outside.

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When I saw that the White Sox had signed Zach Duke for three years and $15 million, my first thought had nothing to do with Duke or Chicago. It was, “wow, Andrew Miller and David Robertson are going to get paid.” Though Duke was obviously a much different pitcher in 2014 than he was in previous years, he’s still a guy who has one good year on his resume after nearly a decade of mediocrity. If he gets three years, it seems clear that the more accomplished Miller and Robertson are going to get at least four (though Robertson’s qualifying offer will hurt, somewhat).

This isn’t necessarily about whether they will or should get multiple-year deals; they clearly will, even though Dave has written here numerous times over the years about how poorly long-term deals for relievers tend to work out. Part of the reason they’re going to get paid is because the Royals just made it to the World Series based in no small part on having a shutdown bullpen of Kelvin Herrera, Wade Davis, and Greg Holland, and success will always breed copycats. Part of it is because of the perception that with starters going shorter and shorter into games, it’s more important to have a talented bullpen.

But is that second part actually true?

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The Red Sox are reportedly on the verge of signing Hanley Ramirez for something “in the range” of $90 million over five years, according to Ken Rosenthal. The vagueness associated with the “range” wording means that we don’t know exactly how many years or how many dollars Ramirez is getting, but it seems like anything in the range of $90 million for Ramirez is going to be a pretty good deal for the Red Sox. That said, we’ll hold off on a full analysis of the contract until we actually know what the contract is going to look like.

So for now, let’s talk about what this move does to the Red Sox roster and the rest of their offseason plans.

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We’ll have a more full write-up on this in the morning, but after a day of rumors, it appears that the Red Sox really are on the verge of landing free agent Hanley Ramirez. Per Ken Rosenthal:

Source: Hanley Ramirez headed to Boston tomorrow to finalize deal with #RedSox.

— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) November 24, 2014

Sources say Hanley’s deal with #RedSox will be in range of five years, $90M.

— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) November 24, 2014

This is a fascinating move in so many ways. For one, it’s far less than I expected Ramirez to sign for — I predicted 7/$140M for Hanley — but exactly the amount the crowd came up with in the crowdsourcing project. Of course, the crowd has been low on pretty much every other free agent contract signed to date, so even signing for the crowd’s expected figure makes it seem like a relative bargain.

But it isn’t just the terms that are surprising. For one, we don’t know where Ramirez might play in Boston, given their rather public pursuit of Pablo Sandoval. Does this mean they know they lost the bidding for Kung Fu Panda, and Ramirez took the deal that they had allocated for their primary third base choice? Or are they still trying to sign Sandoval as well, which would push Ramirez back to shortstop or the outfield, both positions at which the team does not have an obvious need.

This makes more sense if Ramirez was the backup plan at third base, but even then, they’ve openly talked about getting more left-handed, and third base was the obvious spot at which to add a left-handed bat. If it’s Ramirez instead of Sandoval, trades are still likely, given the team’s reliance on right-handed hitting. If it’s Ramirez and Sandoval, then trades are guaranteed, because they just won’t have room for everyone on their roster who deserves to play.

And finally, what does this mean for their pursuit of Jon Lester? The Red Sox could probably afford to add Ramirez, Sandoval, and Lester, but that seems like an offseason of extravagance that goes against what we’ve seen from them before. Perhaps Ramirez was the backup plan not for Sandoval, but for Lester. If they know they’ll be outbid for their preferred starting pitcher, then Ramirez could be added at something near Lester’s price to replace an outfielder like Yoenis Cespedes, who could then be flipped for a starting pitcher.

It’s the kind of move that launches more questions than answers. We’ll try to provide some more answers in the morning with a full write-up on the deal, but until then, speculate away on what you think this deal might mean for the rest of Boston’s offseason.

Bronson Arroyo has a love-hate relationship with vacation mode. He loves to chill out and enjoy life – often with guitar in hand — but that all-too-familiar mound of dirt constantly beckons. The idea of not returning to it leaves him cold.

Arroyo was a paragon of health and reliability from 2004-2013. The tall righthander made at least 29 starts annually, but that streak ended when he underwent Tommy John surgery last July. Five months after signing as a free agent with the Arizona Diamondbacks, Arroyo found himself in unfamiliar territory.

“It’s been a weird experience,” Arroyo said earlier this week. “That first month, watching the team on the road, was the first time I’d been separated from a ball club. I’d be watching these guys play in San Francisco and I’d be sitting in the house in Arizona. It wasn’t cool.”

Arroyo didn’t spend all of his time in the house. When I semi-jokingly asked how long he was on the guitar disabled list, he said he was playing in his cast two days later. He then related how hard it is to keep him cooped up inside.

“After I got out of the hospital, the doctor called my girlfriend and asked ‘How is Bronson recovering?’” said Arroyo. “She said, ‘Oh, he’s fine. He’s at the casino playing Roulette right now.’ He was like, ‘What?’ So it didn’t have me down that long.”

Positive attitude aside, Arroyo realizes recovery from Tommy John surgery is a long and winding road. His therapy sessions last four hours and he won’t begin throwing until January. While his recovery is going well, he admits his arm can’t be deemed fully recovered until it is battled tested.

Until that time, Arroyo will cross his fingers. Being on the shelf for the first time in his career has been a stark reminder that no one plays forever. In all likelihood, he would if he could. Read the rest of this entry »

Each week, we publish north of 100 posts on our various blogs. With this post, we hope to highlight 10 to 15 of them. You can read more on it here. The links below are color coded — green for FanGraphs, brown for RotoGraphs, dark red for The Hardball Times, orange for TechGraphs and blue for Community Research.
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Episode 506
Kiley McDaniel is both (a) the lead prospect writer for FanGraphs and also (b) the guest on this particular edition of FanGraphs Audio — during which edition he discusses, among other topics, the idea of a scout’s “library.”

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 50 min play time.)

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In his final season as the face of baseball, Derek Jeter wasn’t the best player in baseball. He generated a forever memorable moment to close out his time in New York, but the year saw him finish with a wRC+ that was 46 points below his career average. Since Jeter’s retirement, people have openly wondered which player might take over as the new face of the game. I don’t know. I don’t care. This just serves as a strained introduction. Jose Molina might’ve just finished his final season as the face of pitch-framing. He might not have been the best pitch-framer in baseball, but he was close, because framing, unlike hitting, doesn’t follow a dramatic aging curve. The year saw Molina finish with a wRC+ that was 41 points below his career average. That’s dreadful, for a player whose career average is bad.

Molina’s 39. The Rays didn’t simply elect not to keep Molina. The Rays had Molina under contract, and they’ve designated him and his $2.75-million salary for assignment. So this isn’t a move to save money. This is a move to try to be better, and the Rays think they have a capable tandem in Ryan Hanigan and Curt Casali. That much is perfectly defensible. This isn’t interesting because the Rays are letting Molina go; this is interesting because no one else offered to pick Molina up at his salary.

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