Last offseason, the Yankees signed infielder Yangervis Solarte — who’d left the Rangers by way of minor-league free agency — to a decidedly more robust minor-league deal than is the standard in the industry. The result for New York was ultimately a positive one: not only did Solarte record the highest major-league WAR figure in 2014 of any player who’d departed his club the previous offseason by way of minor-league free agency, but the Yankees were able to parlay him (along with right-handed prospect Rafael De Paula) into a trade for Chase Headley.
As noted by Kiley McDaniel earlier this month, the Solarte signing wasn’t an anomalous one for the Yankees: they’d completed similar deals with reliever Jim Miller and catcher Bobby Wilson, as well. And while neither of those players did much of anything at the major-league level, the strategy was ultimately a very profitable one for New York based on Solarte’s production alone — profitable enough, as McDaniel notes, to fund 10 seasons of such an experiment.
“Who might be the next Solarte?” one wonders. It’s a question I began answering last week, only to drift accidentally into an extended meditation on Mark Minicozzi and the hazards inherent to formulating defensive projections for career minor leaguers. What follows, however, represents a more concise response.
Below are the top-five WAR projections assessed by Steamer to the 500-plus players to have been granted minor-league free agency earlier this month. Note that, pursuant to that extended meditation on Mark Minicozzi from last week, the author has made changes to defensive projections in such cases where logic dictated. So, for example, with regard to Luke Montz — whose published Steamer projection includes the catcher’s positional adjustment, but whose most recent defensive record includes just as many starts at first base — I’ve manually edited his overall projections to reflect his likely future defensive usage. The same is the case for Minicozzi himself, who has played much more first base and left field of late than second or third base.
Organizations listed are those to which the player most recently belonged. Hitter projections are prorated to 550 plate appearances — i.e. the amount over which an exactly average player would produce a 2.0 WAR. Note, finally, that Dean Anna would have appeared among the top-five here were he not now a member of the Cardinals’ major-league roster.
5. Jared Goedert, 3B, Toronto (Profile)
| PA |
AVG |
OBP |
SLG |
wRC+ |
Off |
Def |
WAR |
| 550 |
.237 |
.298 |
.382 |
89 |
-6.7 |
2.0 |
1.5 |
Originally a ninth-round selection by Cleveland out of K-State in 2006, Goedert has recorded more than 3800 plate appearances as a minor leaguer, roughly half of them at Triple-A alone. So far as major-league plate appearances are concerned, however, he’s recorded a number a lot closer — and one might say precisely equivalent — to zero. It’s not shocking, probably, that he’s never found a role. He’s a below-average hitter and — it would appear from his profile — just a fringe-average third baseman. That said, there are players who aren’t demonstrably better — Danny Valencia is one name chosen nearly at random — and yet have received hundreds of plate appearances.
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