In a 21-guest salute to Shohei Ohtani trade hypotheticals, Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley are joined by a multitude of friends for a role-playing exercise in convincing the Angels to trade Ohtani to the other 20 contending (or quasi-contending) teams. Ben and Meg begin by explaining how it will work, and then the game begins (14:22). After the resolution (1:09:04), Ben and Meg discuss the outcome, followed by a Future Blast from 2036 (1:23:41). Listeners: Please vote on the trade proposals!
Génesis Cabrerachanged feathers on Friday, as he was traded from St. Louis to Toronto for teenage catching prospect Sammy Hernandez a few days after Cabrera was designated for assignment. The hard-throwing 26-year-old southpaw had spent parts of five volatile seasons with the Cardinals. While he has enjoyed a significant bat-missing rebound in 2023 compared to last season (he’s back into the 26% K% area, up from 16.5% in 2022), Cabrera was in the midst of yet another rocky, homer-prone year before he was DFA’d. He introduced an upper-80s slider/cutter to his repertoire this year and has been using it a ton (36%), while his fastball velocity has slipped a bit. All of Cabrera’s non-fastball pitches generate above-average swinging strike rates, while his mid-90s heater tends to get shelled even though he and the Cardinals made changes to it this year. Perhaps a change of scenery and new outside intervention will lead to another tweak in this area:
Tonight is a big night for Zach Eflin. When he takes the mound, he’ll be making his 19th start, and when he earns his second out of the evening, he’ll have retired his 318th batter, good for 106 innings on the year. Those aren’t records or nice round numbers, but they’re meaningful for this particular pitcher; he hasn’t surpassed those totals since 2019, his first and only qualified season. The Rays took a gamble on the righty this winter (by their own standards, at least), signing the oft-injured starter to the largest free-agent deal in franchise history. When Drew Rasmussen and Jeffrey Springs each went down with season-endinginjuries, the stakes for Eflin grew higher. But with each subsequent start he makes, his contract looks less like a gamble and more like highway robbery. When Eflin records his second out tonight, he’ll have given the Rays more than he gave the Phillies in a single season since the pre-pandemic days.
Eflin nearly reached 106 innings his last time out, but the fates weren’t on his side. An hour-long rain delay messed with his preparation right before first pitch, and the hapless Royals chose that particular day to score five unanswered runs in the first two innings of play. Eflin was pulled shortly thereafter, and he would have to wait another five days to celebrate his achievement. Barring disaster, he’ll get there before 7:00 PM ET this evening, and all things considered, the timing actually works out quite well. His 106th inning will coincide with his 19th start, and his outing today will mark the latest date on the calendar that he’s started a game since 2020.
What makes tonight all the more special is the possibility of what’s to come. Eflin is on pace to make 30 starts and throw about 170 innings, both of which would be new career highs. When he qualified for the ERA title in 2019, he did so by the skin of his teeth, tossing 163.1 frames. He briefly lost his rotation spot after a disastrous performance that July (indeed, this season marks the first successful July of his career), and if the Phillies had optioned him to Triple-A instead of putting him in the bullpen, he’d have fallen 13 outs short of qualification. Thus, he’s looking to finish the season as a fully qualified starting pitcher for the very first time. Read the rest of this entry »
I am a big fan of trading for reinforcements well ahead of the trade deadline. If you can add a piece that will make even a small difference, then do it early if the deal makes sense. That is exactly what the Orioles have done in acquiring Shintaro Fujinami from the A’s, adding to what was already a league-best bullpen led by Félix Bautista and Yennier Cano. In return, Baltimore sent 26-year-old prospect Easton Lucas to Oakland.
Before jumping into Fujinami’s profile and potential, let’s learn a little about Lucas. He initially came to Baltimore’s system from Miami in a trade for veteran infielder Jonathan Villar in December 2019. Since 2021, he has worked his way from High-A to Triple-A as a reliever, peaking at 56.2 innings last season. But after looking the best he has in his career with a 2.66 FIP and 38.7 K% to start the year in Double-A, he’s struggled after stepping up to Triple-A, with a 7.31 FIP and 4.61 ERA in 13 innings.
Even with these recent struggles, there is reason to believe Lucas can be a legitimate middle reliever in the big leagues. Per Eric Longenhagen, his average fastball velocity has jumped significantly, from 90.7 mph to 94.5. He also utilizes two slow breaking balls: a slider that was in the high-70s, and a curve that was in the mid-70s. But like his fastball, those pitches have seen a velocity jump as well; the curve has turned into a low-80s slider, and the old slider has tightened up to become a high-80s cutter. That is essentially a 10-tick bump in both breaking balls. With these changes, Lucas has also faded his changeup usage. Long story short, he is now a four-seamer/cutter/slider guy with a significant stuff boost, giving him more of a shot to be a big leaguer.
Let’s pivot back to Baltimore’s side of things. On the surface, Fujinami has been one of the worst pitchers in baseball this season. He began the year as a starter and allowed 24 earned runs in under 15 innings, walking virtually everyone he faced. He has been much better since moving to the bullpen, posting a 3.90 FIP in 34.1 innings, but much of that performance is very recent. In May and June, he still had a FIP over 4.00 with a BB% north of 10.
After back-to-back rough performances at the end of June against the Blue Jays and Yankees, Fujinami changed his pitch mix, and it seems as if he has settled in as a four-seamer/splitter pitcher. He used his cutter a few times in a recent appearance, but it’s clear that his plan is to use a two-pitch mix. How has that worked out? Let’s look at the four-seamer swinging-strike leaders in July:
Obviously the sample size here isn’t anything significant, but this bump deserves attention. Despite consistent four-seamer usage — between the high-50s and low-60s — Fujinami’s four-seamer swinging-strike rate hadn’t broken 26% in any month. The pitch wasn’t effective, but it has become a weapon in the last few weeks.
As I already mentioned, Fujinami has used a two-pitch mix of late, but how have the fastball and splitter adapted since his recent surge? (I didn’t include his velocity increase between these two time periods because that is largely due to him no longer starting; his fastball jumped two ticks and his splitter jumped one as a reliever.)
Fujinami 4-Seam/Splitter Changes
Pitch
Split
V-Rel
H-Rel
IVB
HVB
VAA
HAA
Tilt
4-Seamer
Pre-July
5.5
-2.2
13.8
-11.0
-4.7
-1.1
1:29
4-Seamer
July
5.5
-1.9
14.4
-11.0
-4.6
-0.8
1:25
Splitter
Pre-July
5.6
-2.0
3.2
-9.8
-6.8
-0.9
2:05
Splitter
July
5.7
-1.8
2.8
-10.9
-7.2
-0.6
1:47
At 93.3 mph, nobody throws a splitter harder than Fujinami other than Jhoan Duran. On top of that, you can see some concrete changes in the pitch’s shape to make it play better with the four-seamer. Most interestingly, the 1:47 tilt on the pitch has moved closer to the four-seamer’s movement. That complicates things for hitters: if Fujinami is throwing both pitches out of similar release points with indistinguishable tilt differences, hitters are going to have trouble either getting their barrel on the splitter or catching up to the heater. The high velocity combination doesn’t give you much wiggle room to figure out where each pitch is headed.
Let’s see what this looks like in practice. Here is an at-bat from last week against Alex Kirilloff:
Pitch 1 (0-0, four-seamer)
Pitch 2 (0-1, splitter)
Pitch 3 (0-2, splitter)
Pitch 4 (0-2, four-seamer)
From Fujinami’s perspective, it doesn’t get any better than this. Kirilloff got his best pitch to hit in the 0–0 count and passed it up. After that, he had no chance. The 0–1 splitter is a nice example of how even a little bit of difference in movement and location can affect a hitter’s swing. The vertical orientation of the splitter was enough for Kirilloff to pull off and chop a foul ball. On the following pitch, Fujinami showed how he can induce a little more horizontal break than a hitter would expect from his release point. It’s not overwhelming, but it’s enough to fool Kirilloff and force an emergency hack. Then, on the final pitch, he blew Kirilloff away with triple digits above the zone. This is perfect execution and sequencing, and it’s exactly what the Orioles will be looking for.
Baltimore has developed a great reputation when it comes to helping relievers get the most out of their stuff and body. If anybody is equipped to help a high-octane reliever with a four-seamer/splitter combination, it’s the Orioles. I wouldn’t be surprised if Fujinami ends up making a slight tweak or two upon his arrival, but I’m confident that would be focused on propping up the two-pitch mix that he has effectively established in the last couple of weeks.
In a race for a playoff spot, every edge matters. Yet all too often, for reasons that extend beyond a player’s statistics, managers and general managers fail to make the moves that could improve their teams, allowing subpar production to fester at the risk of smothering a club’s postseason hopes. In Baseball Prospectus’ 2007 book It Ain’t Over ‘Til It’s Over, I compiled a historical All-Star squad of ignominy, identifying players at each position whose performances had dragged their teams down in tight races: the Replacement-Level Killers. I’ve revisited the concept numerous times at multiple outlets and have adapted it at FanGraphs in an expanded format since 2018.
When it comes to defining replacement level play, we needn’t hew too closely to exactitude. Any team that’s gotten less than 0.6 WAR from a position to this point — prorating to 1.0 over a full season — is considered fair game. Sometimes, acceptable or even above-average defense (which may depend upon which metric one uses) coupled with total ineptitude on offense is enough to flag a team. Sometimes a club may be well ahead of replacement level but has lost a key contributor to injury; sometimes the reverse is true, but the team hasn’t yet climbed above that first-cut threshold. As with Supreme Court Justice Potter Stewart’s definition of hardcore pornography, I know replacement level when I see it. Read the rest of this entry »
The full midseason run of the ZiPS projections have been completed, and while the standings updates are always a lot of fun, they tend to move in a similar direction to our FanGraphs standings, so they’re usually not the most shocking. What I find the most interesting are the player projections — not even the numbers for the rest of the season (the in-season model is simpler, but improvements in the full model are naturally going to be incremental), but the ones that look toward 2024 and beyond.
After looking at the hitter gainers and decliners and then the pitcher gainers, we’re wrapping this up with the list of the pitchers with the largest declines in projected 2024 WAR since my original projections to dig a little into what changed for each player. Sometimes it’s performance, sometimes it’s health, sometimes it’s a change in position. Let’s jump straight into the names, since I assume everyone reading this knows that ZiPS isn’t a cheeseburger or a hoodie.
One note: For this list, I looked only at the pitchers who have played in the majors whose sole decline isn’t because of injuries; otherwise, the list would simply be “dudes having Tommy John surgery” and fringe Double-A prospects who hit the wall suddenly. I doubt you need any help from a projection system to know why Carlos Rodón’s projection is worse now. Read the rest of this entry »
Brandon Williamson is a small-town kid looking to make a mark in Cincinnati. Selected by Seattle in the second round of the 2019 draft out of Texas Christian University, the 25-year-old southpaw from Welcome, Minnesota (population: 701) was acquired by the Reds from the Mariners as part a six-player trade prior to last season. Since making his MLB debut two months ago, he has a 4.96 ERA and a 5.51 FIP over 11 outings comprising 52.2 innings.
His potential exceeds his modest performance to date. No. 9 on our preseason Reds Top Prospects list with a 45 FV, Williamson has, in the words of Eric Longenhagen, “a good shot to pitch toward the back of a contender’s rotation.” The velocity is nothing to write home about — his heater is averaging a pedestrian 92.5 mph — but as our lead prospect analyst also noted, “His ability to mix [five] offerings in an unpredictable fashion still excites scouts.”
Williamson discussed his arsenal and approach when the Reds visited Boston at the end of May.
———
David Laurila: Based on your experience, how do the Mariners and Reds compare in terms of pitching development?
Brandon Williamson: “At the end of the day, it’s still baseball. They’re both trying to get you to throw good pitches over the plate as much as possible. Both value strikeouts, but that’s unanimous around the game. There are maybe a few differences. The Mariners maybe target more shape. I guess that’s probably the biggest difference, targeting more shapes.”
Laurila: There’s less focus on that with Cincinnati?
Williamson: “I wouldn’t necessarily say less, it’s more how they go about it. Seattle is very numbers and TrackMan-driven. Not that here isn’t. I guess you could say that here it’s more of a pitch-use, mechanical way. It’s more of a mix.”
Laurila: With mechanics in mind, I’ve read that command has been an issue for you. Is that still a concern?
Williamson: “It hasn’t been all along. Last year… before that, I wasn’t a guy who walked a bunch of people. I don’t feel like it’s terrible. Is it an issue? You could say that, but it’s not like, ‘Oh my gosh, you can’t pitch.’ It’s more a matter of ‘How can I consistently use my stuff in the zone?’ It’s not that I’m wild, I just need to effectively throw all of my pitches in the zone and be able to repeat that.” Read the rest of this entry »
As is tradition at FanGraphs, we’re using the lead-up to the trade deadline to take stock of the top 50 players in baseball by trade value. For a more detailed introduction to this year’s exercise, as well as a look at the players who fell just short of the top 50, be sure to read the Introduction and Honorable Mentions piece, which can be found in the widget above.
For those of you who have been reading the Trade Value Series the last few seasons, the format should look familiar. For every player, you’ll see a table with the player’s projected five-year WAR from 2024-2028, courtesy of Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections. The table will also include the player’s guaranteed money, if any, the year through which their team has contractual control of them, last year’s rank (if applicable), and then projections, contract status, and age for each individual season through 2028 (if the player is under contract or team control for those seasons). Last year’s rank includes a link to the relevant 2022 post. Thanks are due to Sean Dolinar for his technical wizardry. At the bottom of the page, there is a grid showing all of the players who have been ranked up to this point.
As you might imagine, we’re well into the good stuff. All of these players are hugely valuable, and few are likely to actually get traded. That doesn’t mean this is purely theoretical, but it’s something approaching that. Like most lists, ordinal rankings can be deceiving; there isn’t an equal value gap separating every spot on the list. I’ve tried to mention where there are large gaps, but don’t read too much into someone being ninth instead of fifth. There just isn’t much difference between those two spots, and both players are a lot more valuable than the guy ranked 15th.
If you have any questions about the rankings, I’ll be chatting today at 10 AM ET.
Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about Meg’s strategies for coping with record heat in Phoenix, revisit an earlier conversation about whether the pitch clock has boosted MLB attendance (and reminisce about when the cause of increased game times was still considered unclear), celebrate their recent wish about camera angles on broadcasts coming true, discuss the resurgences of Jason Heyward and Cody Bellinger, marvel at Mickey Moniak’s continued resistance to regression and the Orioles overtaking the Rays in the AL East, use Jarred Kelenic’s fractured foot to advocate for padded dugout surfaces, and try to determine whether Albert Pujols or Miguel Cabrera had the more surprising steep decline. Then (1:11:46) they answer listener emails about burnishing Shohei Ohtani’s legacy (and his likely career path), letting All-Star starters return to the game after being removed, Elly De La Cruz if he had to attempt steals, and the distance to bullpens, plus a Future Blast (1:42:20) from 2035 and a postscript on old-timer home run derbies.
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