FanGraphs Power Rankings: The Beginning of the Offseason

The hot stove is set to simmer while teams take stock of their roster situations and the free-agent market. That means it’s the perfect time to see how each team stacks up against each other. Because these rankings are entirely data driven (based on the Depth Charts projections), there will be some wonky placements, particularly for teams that had significant players leave via free agency earlier this month. Think of these as a glimpse at which teams are close to being ready for 2023 and which teams might have a lot of work to do before thinking about next season. We’ll run these power rankings a couple of times during the offseason as a way to check in on how teams are shaping up heading into Opening Day.

A reminder for how these rankings are calculated: first, we take the three most important components of a team — their offense (wRC+), their pitching (a 50/50 blend of FIP- and RA9-, weighted by starter and reliever IP share), and their defense (RAA) — and combine them to create an overall team quality metric. For these offseason power rankings, I’ve used each team’s projected stats based on their Depth Charts projections which are entirely powered by the 2023 Steamer projections at this point. I’ve also used the projected fielding component of WAR that appears on our Depth Charts projections as the defensive component for each team in lieu of RAA.

Tier 1 – Ready to Compete
Team Projected Record wRC+ SP- RP- Fld Team Quality
Braves 93-69 105 88 85 -0.7 170
Rays 92-70 109 94 97 1.2 168

With a young core locked up for years and very few holes on the roster, the Braves are essentially ready to run everything back in 2023. The biggest departure so far is Dansby Swanson; outside of him, Atlanta’s entire starting lineup and rotation will be returning in 2023.

The Braves’ biggest hindrance to improving their roster this offseason is their payroll, which is already butting up against the competitive balance tax. If they want to bring in a new shortstop or re-sign Swanson, they’ll either have to blow past the luxury tax threshold or find creative ways to cut costs. That appeared to be the reason behind trading away Jake Odorizzi last week. And with Vaughn Grissom’s strong rookie showing, there might already be a Swanson replacement in the organization anyway.

It’s surprising to see the Rays this high in the rankings, but their deep and flexible roster means they have few gaps to fill, and some good projections for their young core puts them already ahead of some of their closest division rivals. More importantly, the players they did lose to free agency all have in-house replacements already established or close to debuting — a big benefit of their robust development pipeline. That depth is a double-edged sword, however. Facing a 40-man roster crunch ahead of this week’s Rule 5 roster deadline, Tampa made four trades just in the last week, though none of them had much impact on the overall projections. Read the rest of this entry »


FanGraphs Audio: Joel Goldberg on the Rising Royals

Episode 1001

Hot Stove season is upon us and we are ready to start picking apart transactions, but not before we talk about the Kansas City Royals.

  • To kick things off, David Laurila welcomes Joel Goldberg, broadcaster and reporter for the Royals. David didn’t put Bobby Witt Jr. on his AL Rookie of the Year ballot this year, but he and Joel discuss how the best is certainly yet to come for the young phenom. The pair also talk about the underrated Scott Barlow, top prospect Maikel Garcia, the promise of a new ballpark, and how Kansas City was Salvador Perez’s town before it belonged to Patrick Mahomes. We also get insight into Dayton Moore’s legacy now that he has left the organization and J.J. Picollo has become the new president of baseball ops. [3:53]
  • In the second half, Ben Clemens is joined by Eric Longenhagen to talk about the early roster moving and shaking. The duo discuss glove-first center fielders who can’t hit enough for the majors, the Marlins struggling to develop players with a good approach at the plate, and Ben’s recent article about what would happen if pitching were a carnival game. Eric and Ben also banter about backstops, wonder how catchers who are good at framing will be valued going forward, framing vs. blocking, and if pop time is more important than accuracy when throwing to second base. [37:56]

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Audio after the jump. (Approximate 88 minute play time.)


Job Posting: Milwaukee Brewers – Multiple Intern Openings

Intern – Baseball Research & Development (paid, multiple positions available)

Location: Milwaukee, Wisconsin

Summary  Will work with the Baseball R&D, Baseball Systems Departments, and the entire Baseball Operations Department to deliver research and tools to improve decision making. The position requires a person who has intellectual curiosity, is a self-starter and can communicate technical and analytical concepts effectively to non-technical people. Being passionate about using data, analysis, and technology to improve decision making processes is also a key differentiator.

Essential Duties and Responsibilities include the following. Reasonable accommodations may be made to enable individuals with disabilities to perform the essential functions. Other duties may be assigned.

  • Work with Baseball R&D and Baseball Operations to understand analytical needs and implement best practices for meeting those needs
  • Investigate emerging data sources and identify potential for predictive value and actionable insights to improve decision making
  • Develop visualizations and other mechanisms for disseminating analytical results to Baseball Operations, including consideration for less technically and analytically inclined consumers
  • Continually survey latest analytical methods and advancements in baseball research to apply cutting edge methods and data to problems
  • Understand current decision processes and information systems and offer enhancements and improvements
  • Additional requests for reports, visualizations and research projects during the year

Qualifications To perform this job successfully, an individual must be able to perform each essential duty satisfactorily. The requirements listed below are representative of the knowledge, skill, and/or ability required.

  • Understanding of basic statistical modeling techniques, including, but not limited to, linear regression, logistic regressions, machine learning, etc.
  • Proficiency with an analytical software platform required (for example R or Mathematica)
  • Proficiency with SQL and SQL databases required
  • Proficiency with data scripting language or ETL environment (Python, PERL, SSIS, etc.) desired

Education and/or Experience
Bachelor’s degree (B.S./B.A.) or current pursuit of bachelor’s degree in Computer Science, Mathematics, Statistics, Engineering, Operations Research, or related field from four-year college or university. Advanced degree or current pursuit of advanced degree in one of the areas mentioned above or a related field is desirable.

Work Hours 
Business hours are Monday – Friday 9 am – 5pm, however, additional hours may be required on weekends, evenings and some holidays.

To Apply:
To apply, please follow this link.


Intern – Minor League Technology Operations (paid, multiple positions available)

Summary  Assist members of the baseball operations staff with all technology needs at Brewers minor league affiliates. This internship will run from early March through the end of September with the possibility of work into October.

Essential Duties and Responsibilities include the following. Reasonable accommodations may be made to enable individuals with disabilities to perform the essential functions. Other duties may be assigned.

  • Troubleshoot the team Hawkeye cameras when instructed by coordinator, tech ops..
  • Log home game data via Hawkeye’s BSK software.
  • Import game data into the BATS Video System accurately tracking pitch type, location, and result. Upload this data to the Brewers system so that remote and front office staff can review video.
  • Complete special projects as assigned from Coordinator – Tech Operations and front office.
  • Complete pro scouting reports on assigned players.
  • Operate Edgertronic Camera and Trackman Portable system for each bullpen before games
  • Communicate with Coordinator – Technology Operations regarding any technology troubleshooting issues.
  • Partner with coaches to produce advance scouting reports that clearly and accurately report data on the upcoming opponents. Present this data to players when necessary.
  • Operate approved technology including, but not limited to, Uplift, Blast, Trackman, Rapsodo, and HitTrax when necessary to track player on field work prior to games
  • Implement organizational technology best practices and educate coaches and players on the process and benefits of technology use.

Qualifications To perform this job successfully, an individual must be able to perform each essential duty satisfactorily. The requirements listed below are representative of the knowledge, skill, and/or ability required.

  • Qualified applicants must be motivated, well-organized, detail-oriented, be able to work independently and on a deadline.
  • Exceptional organization skills and the ability to relate well with individuals with diverse backgrounds is also required.
  • A background in scouting is preferred, as well as experience in baseball operations

Education and/or Experience
Candidates must be currently enrolled or have recently graduated from an accredited college or university pursuing a degree or certification in a related field.

Computer Skills  
To perform the job successfully, an individual should have knowledge of Microsoft office software including Word, Excel, PowerPoint, Access, Outlook, and Internet Explorer. Additional preferred computer skills include proficiency in BATS (Baseball Analysis and Tracking System).

Language Skills 
Ability to read and comprehend simple instructions, short correspondence, and memos. Ability to write simple correspondence. Ability to effectively present information in one-on-one and small group situations to customers, clients, and other employees of the organization. Spanish speaking preferred.

Mathematical Skills 
Ability to add, subtract, multiply, and divide in all units of measure, using whole numbers, common fractions, and decimals. Ability to compute rate, ratio, and percent and to draw and interpret bar graphs.

Reasoning Ability 
Ability to apply common sense understanding to carry out detailed but uninvolved written or oral instructions. Ability to deal with problems involving a few concrete variables in standardized situations.

Physical Demands
The physical demands described here are representative of those that must be met by an employee to successfully perform the essential functions of this job. Reasonable accommodations may be made to enable individuals with disabilities to perform the essential functions. While performing the duties of this Job, the employee is regularly required to use hands to finger, handle, or feel and talk or hear. The employee is frequently required to reach with hands and arms. The employee is occasionally required to stand; walk; sit and stoop, kneel, crouch, or crawl. The employee must regularly lift and /or move up to 50 pounds. Specific vision abilities required by this job include close vision, distance vision, peripheral vision and ability to adjust focus.

Work Environment
The work environment characteristics described here are representative of those an employee encounters while performing the essential functions of this job. Reasonable accommodations may be made to enable individuals with disabilities to perform the essential functions. While performing the duties of this Job, the employee is regularly exposed to outside weather conditions, which may include heat, cold and various forms of precipitation. The employee is occasionally exposed to moving mechanical parts. The noise level in the work environment is usually moderate.

Work Hours 
Hours vary according to the game and event schedule.

To Apply:
To apply, please follow this link.

The content in this posting was created and provided solely by the Milwaukee Brewers.


40-Man Roster Deadline Analysis: NL East

© Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Tuesday’s 40-man roster deadline led to the usual squall of transaction activity, with teams turning over portions of their rosters in an effort to make room for the incoming crop of young rookies. Often, teams with an overflow of viable big leaguers will try to get back what they can for some of those players via trade, but because we’re talking about guys straddling the line between major league viability and Triple-A, those trades tend not to be big enough to warrant an entire post. Over the next few days, I’ll endeavor to cover and analyze the moves made by each team, division by division. Readers can view this as the start of list season, as the players covered in this miniseries tend to be prospects who will get big league time in the next year. I’ll spend more time discussing players who I think need scouting updates or who I haven’t written about in the past. If you want additional detail on some of the more famous names you find below, pop over to The Board for a more thorough report.

The Future Value grades littered throughout these posts may be different than those on the 2022 in-season prospect lists on The Board to reflect my updated opinions, and may be subject to change during the offseason. New to my thinking on this subject and wondering what the FVs mean? Here’s a quick rundown. Note that because we’re talking about close-to-the-majors prospects across this entire exercise, the time and risk component is less present here and these FVs are what I think the players are right now. Read the rest of this entry »


Xander Bogaerts’ Defensive Bogeyman

Xander Bogaerts
Paul Rutherford-USA TODAY Sports

It’s either a great or a terrible winter to be a shortstop. On the one hand, four shortstops – Carlos Correa, Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts, and Dansby Swanson – figure to be among the offseason’s top free agent earners, making up half of the top eight in FanGraphs’ 2023 Top 50. On the other hand, those four have each other as competition, and differentiating oneself among the All-Star shortstops of four of the last six World Series champions can’t be easy. All four showed just what they’re capable of in 2022. Turner, Bogaerts, and Swanson each finished in the top 15 in position player WAR, separated by a grand total of 0.3, and Correa – if he raised any doubts by getting off to a slow start in Minnesota – slashed .370/.419/.613 over his last 29 games to finish first among all shortstops with a 140 wRC+. These players aren’t interchangeable by any means, and Swanson doesn’t have the offensive pedigree of the other three, but the teams showing interest in one are more than likely to at least take a look at the others. A year after Corey Seager, Trevor Story, Javier Báez, and Correa were among the top free agents available, this winter’s shortstop class is even more loaded.

2023 Free Agent Shortstops in 2022
Name Team G HR wOBA wRC+ Off Def WAR
Xander Bogaerts BOS 150 15 .363 134 28.6 9.0 6.1
Carlos Correa MIN 136 22 .362 140 20.7 2.0 4.4
Trea Turner LAD 160 21 .350 128 29.5 7.1 6.3
Dansby Swanson ATL 162 25 .337 116 15.7 21.4 6.4

Read the rest of this entry »


2023 Contemporary Baseball Era Committee Candidate: Don Mattingly

Don Mattingly
USA TODAY Sports

The following article is part of my ongoing look at the candidates on the 2023 Contemporary Baseball Era Committee ballot. Originally written for the 2013 election at SI.com, it has been expanded and updated. For a detailed introduction to this year’s ballot, use the tool above. An introduction to JAWS can be found here.

Don Mattingly was the golden child of the Great Yankees Dark Age. He debuted in September 1982, the year after the team finished a stretch of four World Series appearances in six seasons, and retired in 1995 after finally reaching the postseason — a year too early for the franchise’s run of six pennants and four titles in eight years under Joe Torre.

A lefty-swinging first baseman with a sweet stroke, “Donnie Baseball” was both an outstanding hitter and a slick fielder at his peak. He made six straight All-Star teams from 1984 to ’89 and won a batting title, an MVP award, and nine Gold Gloves. Along the way, he battled with owner George Steinbrenner even while becoming the standard bearer of the pinstripes, the team captain, and something of a cultural icon. Alas, a back injury sapped his power, not only shortening his peak but also bringing his career to a premature end at age 34. At its root, the problem was that Mattingly was so driven to succeed that he overworked himself in the batting cage.

“Donnie was one of the hardest workers I had ever seen and played with. He would go in the cage before batting practice and take batting practice. And after batting practice was over, he’d take batting practice,” former teammate Ron Guidry said for a 2022 MLB Network documentary, Donnie Baseball (for which this scribe was also interviewed).

“I should have learned quicker to not to beat my body up, and if I did less, I could perform better,” said Mattingly for the same documentary.

Mattingly debuted on the 2001 Hall of Fame ballot, the last one before I began my own annual reviews, but it was quickly clear that he didn’t have the raw numbers or the support of enough voters to gain entry to Cooperstown. After receiving 28.2% his first time around, he dipped to 20.3% in 2002, spent most of the remainder of his 15-year run in the teens, and was in single digits by the end. What’s more, in two appearances on the Modern Baseball Era Committee ballot in 2018 and ’20, he failed to reach the threshold to have his actual share reported; at most, he received three of 16 votes (18.8%) in his last appearance.

At this point, Mattingly’s best hope for a Hall of Fame berth involves building on his managerial success, though even in that department he has a long way to go. After winning three division titles in five seasons with the Dodgers, he spent seven years toiling for the Marlins and is currently out of a job after stepping down from that job last month. He seems unlikely to be elected this time around, but his candidacy is nonetheless a welcome palate cleanser when compared to the likes of Rafael Palmeiro and Albert Belle. Read the rest of this entry »


Twins Prospect Edouard Julien’s Bat Is Almost Ready for the Majors

© Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

When he was first featured at FanGraphs in October of last year, Edouard Julien was described as having a unique profile and a potentially bright future. A native of Quebec City whom the Minnesota Twins had taken in the 18th round of the 2019 draft out of Auburn University, the left-handed-hitting second baseman was coming off a season in which he led the minors with 110 walks while logging a .434 OBP. Augmenting his patient approach with promising power, he’d homered 18 times between the two A-ball levels.

An adjustment was nonetheless needed. Julien’s batting average had been a middling .267, and his 144 strikeouts and 28% K-rate were suggestive of a hitter who’d been guilty of taking too many hittable pitches. Eric Longenhagen addressed the issue this past March. Describing the now-23-year-old, our lead prospect analyst wrote: “Patient bordering on passive, Julien’s bat is what will carry him to the big leagues.” Read the rest of this entry »


For Sale: Catcher’s Gear, Lightly Used

Sean Murphy
D. Ross Cameron-USA TODAY Sports

It can be difficult to find the thing you didn’t realize you needed until you didn’t have it when it counted, or to offload it when you realized you had more of it than you could use. That thing, in this case: production from the catcher position.

Catchers are unlike infielders or outfielders, in that you can only one can play at a time. Or rather, two catchers can play at once, if one slides over to first base or DH, in which case the thing that makes them so special — the ability to slap on some plastic padding and soak up foul tips and 58-foot curveballs five nights a week — essentially goes to waste.

Consider Oakland’s situation; after developing Sean Murphy into one of the top catchers in the game, the A’s landed former top-10 pick Shea Langeliers in the Matt Olson trade. Langeliers reached the majors this year and hit fairly well, but not so well that he’s an ideal DH, which is where he made most of his starts on account of being blocked by Murphy.

Or how about the Blue Jays, who have not one but three starter-quality catchers? Alejandro Kirk emerged as a star in 2022, and Danny Jansen put up 2.6 WAR and a 140 wRC+ in just 72 games. That left Gabriel Moreno, one of the top prospects in baseball, even more blocked than Langeliers when he emerged as big league-ready late this season.

It makes sense, therefore, that trade rumors swirl around both Oakland and Toronto, as both teams could stand to cash in their surfeit of backstops for help elsewhere. Read the rest of this entry »


What if Pitching Were a Carnival Game?

© Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

One of my favorite things about baseball is the sheer number of mind games going on before every pitch. Will the batter sit on a fastball? Will the pitcher give in to the count and throw that fastball the batter is sitting on? The batter is weak against changeups, but the pitcher’s best secondary is a slider – what does that mean for each of their mindsets? First base is open, but the next batter up is strong – what does that mean? The permutations and counters are endless.

It doesn’t stop with the batter-pitcher confrontation. What if there’s a pickoff called? The defense is back and shifted – would a bunt make sense here? Does the count matter for the defense? What about the score? You can spin endlessly around these decisions, and it’s wonderful. I spend plenty of time watching the game and daydreaming about which tactics each team might employ.

That’s all awesome, and a great part of baseball. This article is very much not about those mind games. There’s another part of baseball that I also enjoy – watching phenomenal athletes at the top of their craft. Forget the game theory and levels of counter-play – the physical skill on display in a random baseball game is immense. Read the rest of this entry »


Job Posting: Cleveland Guardians – Minor League Pitching Coach, Minor League Hitting Coach

Minor League Pitching Coach

Primary Purpose
The Cleveland Guardians are currently seeking a Minor League pitching coach to join the Player Development Department. The ideal candidate will possess a passion for player and personal growth, experience integrating multiple information sources to create and implement pitching plans, and a thorough understanding of skill acquisition principles. Excellent applicants will demonstrate curiosity, creativity, and a drive to learn new concepts to problem solve. First and foremost, we are looking for great people!

We are committed to creating an equitable interview process that recognizes the unique identities of all applicants and allows candidates to bring their best selves forward. If you are more comfortable with submitting your materials (ie. resume, other documents) in Spanish, please feel free to do so. In order to facilitate the review of applications, we encourage you to apply by 11/18. However, we will still be accepting applications after that date until the position is filled.

If you meet some of the qualifications above, we encourage you to apply or to reach out for more information. We know that some historically marginalized groups – including people of color, women, people from working class backgrounds, and people who identify as LGBTQ – may feel less likely to apply, even though they are qualified, unless they meet every requirement for a job. Therefore, we encourage you to reach out if you have questions about the role or your qualifications. We are happy to help you feel ready to apply!

Essential Responsibilities and Duties

  • Integrate objective information into a detailed and comprehensive player development plan. 
  • Create effective training environments based off individual player plans. 
  • Collaborate with other Physical domains to effectively plan, implement and monitor a holistic player development plan. 
  • Utilize internal tools, resources, and analytics to assess and adjust player plans. 
  • Communicate development plans and progress with players and Player Development staff and Front Office throughout the year.
  • Assist field staff with normal daily operations when necessary. 

Requirements

  • Minimum of two years related experience and/or training required. Previous experience with a Major or Minor League Baseball organization or collegiate baseball program is a plus.
  • Candidate is willing to potentially work at our development complex in Arizona year round. 
  • Ability to effectively communicate with a wide range of people and backgrounds.
  • Reads, speaks, comprehends, and communicates English proficiently in all communications.
  • Interest in personal and professional development with a desire to be involved in internal continuing education opportunities. 
  • Proficiency in Microsoft Office including Teams, Word, Excel, PowerPoint, Office and Outlook. 

Preferred Experience
We are looking for a variety of skill sets. If you have demonstrated experience with any of the following, you may be who we are looking for to join our team.

  • Fluency in Spanish is a plus but not required.
  • Proficiency in SQL is a plus but not required.
  • Experience working with Trackman, Edgertronic cameras, biomechanics data, and workload monitoring data. 
  • Strength & conditioning experience is a plus but not required.

Standard Requirements

  • All applicants for employment with the Cleveland Indians (Guardians) will need to comply with the OSHA COVID-19 Vaccination Policy as a condition of employment.  Potential candidates for employment will be notified of the requirements of this policy prior to the start of employment.
  • Represents the Cleveland Guardians in a positive fashion to all business partners and the general public.
  • Ability to develop and maintain successful working relationship with members of the Front Office.
  • Ability to act according to the organizational values and service excellence at all times. 
  • Ability to work with multicultural populations and have a commitment to fairness and equality. 
  • Ability to work in a diverse and changing environment. 

To Apply:
To apply, please follow this link.


Minor League Hitting Coach

Primary Purpose
The Cleveland Guardians are currently seeking a Minor League hitting coach to join the Player Development Department. The ideal candidate will possess a passion for player and personal growth, experience integrating multiple information sources to create and implement development plans, and a thorough understanding of skill acquisition principles. Excellent applicants will demonstrate curiosity, creativity, and a drive to learn new concepts to problem solve. First and foremost, we are looking for great people!

We are committed to creating an equitable interview process that recognizes the unique identities of all applicants and allows candidates to bring their best selves forward. If you are more comfortable with submitting your materials (ie. resume, other documents) in Spanish, please feel free to do so. In order to facilitate the review of applications, we encourage you to apply by 11/18. However, we will still be accepting applications after that date until the position is filled.

If you meet some of the qualifications above, we encourage you to apply or to reach out for more information. We know that some historically marginalized groups – including people of color, women, people from working class backgrounds, and people who identify as LGBTQ – may feel less likely to apply, even though they are qualified, unless they meet every requirement for a job. Therefore, we encourage you to reach out if you have questions about the role or your qualifications. We are happy to help you feel ready to apply!

Essential Responsibilities and Duties

  • Integrate objective information into a detailed and comprehensive player development plan. 
  • Create effective training environments based off individual player plans. 
  • Collaborate with other Physical domains to effectively plan, implement and monitor a holistic player development plan. 
  • Utilize internal tools, resources, and analytics to assess and adjust player plans. 
  • Communicate development plans and progress with players and Player Development staff and Front Office throughout the year.
  • Assist field staff with normal daily operations when necessary. 

Requirements

  • Minimum of two years related experience and/or training required. Previous experience with a professional baseball/softball organization or collegiate baseball/softball program is a plus.
  • Candidate is willing to potentially work year-round at our development complex in Arizona. 
  • Ability to communicate effectively with a wide range of people and backgrounds.
  • Reads, speaks, comprehends, and communicates English proficiently in all communications.
  • Interest in personal and professional development with a desire to be involved in internal continuing education opportunities. 
  • Proficiency in Microsoft Office including Teams, Word, Excel, PowerPoint, Office and Outlook. 

Preferred Experience
We are looking for a variety of skill sets. If you have demonstrated experience with any of the following, you may be who we are looking for to join our team.

  • Fluency in Spanish is a plus but not required.
  • Proficiency in SQL is a plus but not required.
  • Experience working with Trackman, Edgertronic cameras, biomechanics data, and workload monitoring data. 
  • Strength & conditioning experience is a plus but not required.
  • Experience with mental performance/sports psychology is a plus but not required.

Standard Requirements

  • All applicants for employment with the Cleveland Indians (Guardians) will need to comply with the OSHA COVID-19 Vaccination Policy as a condition of employment.  Potential candidates for employment will be notified of the requirements of this policy prior to the start of employment.
  • Represents the Cleveland Guardians in a positive fashion to all business partners and the general public.
  • Ability to develop and maintain successful working relationship with members of the Front Office.
  • Ability to act according to the organizational values and service excellence at all times. 
  • Ability to work with multicultural populations and have a commitment to fairness and equality. 
  • Ability to work in a diverse and changing environment. 

To Apply:
To apply, please follow this link.

The content in this posting was created and provided solely by the Cleveland Guardians.