Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about MacKenzie Gore and how long a player’s career has to be for something he does to be described as a “career high,” Nick Senzel’s proclivity toward catcher’s interference and the Reds’ ice-cold start, the first-place Los Angeles Angels, the hot starts of Mike Trout, Carlos Rodón, Joe Ryan, Kevin Gausman, and others, the aesthetics of swinging strikes vs. called strikes, the return of Ronald Acuña Jr., a Cardinals-Mets beanbrawl, the Orioles embracing an apparent trend toward catchers setting up over the plate and not varying their targets from pitch to pitch, and whether the zombie runner violates the rulebook, then end by following up on a Stat Blast about Byron Buxton, Mike Squires, and the biggest team record differentials with and without certain players.

Audio intro: Spoon, “Don’t Make Me a Target”
Audio outro: The Loud Family, “Spot the Setup”

Link to Gore “career-high” headline
Link to Ben Clemens on Gore
Link to catcher’s interference description
Link to catcher’s interference compilation
Link to Jeff on Ellsbury
Link to Jay Jaffe on Trout
Link to tweet about Trout’s swings
Link to Joe Ryan interview
Link to brawl discipline news
Link to Rob Mains on Mets HBPs
Link to Defector on Stubby Clapp
Link to The Athletic on balls getting away
Link to article on Orioles catchers
Link to Matt Brash clip
Link to Rays catchers tweet
Link to Justin Choi on the Orioles bullpen
Link to Justin on throwing it over the middle
Link to Driveline tweet about misses
Link to Raymond’s post about zombie runners
Link to 2021 MLB rulebook
Link to zombie runner in MLB glossary
Link to updated Stat Blast data
Link to Squires Wiki
Link to NBC story on Squires
Link to article on lefty catchers
Link to article on 1915 A’s firesale
Link to Passan’s Buxton tweet
Link to article about Buxton’s part-time role
Link to Neil Paine on Buxton

 Sponsor Us on Patreon
Subscribe to Stathead (Code: WILD20)
 Facebook Group
 Effectively Wild Wiki
 Twitter Account
 iTunes Feed (Please rate and review us!)
 Get Our Merch!
 Email Us: podcast@fangraphs.com

Podcast (effectively-wild): Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

During the past two years, we here at FanGraphs have spent a good bit of time staring into the abyss in contemplation. Specifically, we’ve wondered about a world without Mike Trout, or at least a world where he’s no longer the game’s top player. Who will inherit the mantle of this generation’s Mantle? What would our lowered expectations for Trout look like? What are the chances that in his age-30 season, he’s a bust? What would the playoff races look like without him?

Alas, we got an all-too-real demonstration of that last question just weeks after Dan Szymborski posed it last April, as Trout was limited to 36 games due to a right calf strain that he sustained on May 17. The strain, which occurred as he ran the bases on an inconsequential two-out popup, was supposed to sideline him for six to eight weeks, already the longest absence of his career. It turned out to be worse than expected; he never got comfortable enough in his recovery to begin a rehab assignment, and didn’t return to action before season’s end. Thankfully, he’s back now, and while he may not be better than ever, what his ridiculous stat line — .365/.476/.808 for a 270 wRC+, with all of those numbers major-league bests save for the batting average — presupposes is… maybe he is?

If Trout is on the precipice of age-related decline, it hasn’t come yet. After starting the year just 3-for-15, he’s put together a 10-game hitting streak, during which he’s putting up cheat-code numbers (.432/.523/.946). The streak went on ice for a few days when he was hit on the left hand by an 81 mph slider from the Rangers’ Spencer Patton on April 17; I don’t know about you, but I can’t watch the clip without the urge to yell, “Move, Mike!” when he reflexively pulls his hands down towards his waist and puts them in harm’s way. Thankfully, x-rays were negative, and while he missed three games, he’s kicked things up a notch since returning, with multi-hit efforts in four of his last six games, and seven of the 11 hits within going for extra bases. Read the rest of this entry »

These are notes on prospects from Tess Taruskin. You can read previous installments of our prospect notes here.

Edward Cabrera, SP, Miami Marlins
Level & Affiliate: Single-A Jupiter Age: 24 Overall Rank: 109 FV: 50
Line: 4IP, 1H, 0R, 3BB, 7K

Notes
Cabrera was shut down in early April with a biceps issue. This came a few days after throwing three impressive spring training frames against the Nationals, during which he notched three strikeouts, including one to Nelson Cruz. His stint on the IL, though relatively brief, is the latest entry in what has been a long history of injuries since his professional career began in 2016, but he put forth a strong showing in his first start of the season. Read the rest of this entry »

12:02

Dan Szymborski: Good afternoon to people with righteous time zones! Good morning to the rest of you.

12:03

Dan Szymborski: Nick Martinez?

12:03

Dan Szymborski: Certainly more than three games. Especially because his plate discipline numbers suggest a lower walk rate.

12:03

Dan Szymborski: I’d actually be more worried that he’s not throwing as hard as he was overseas.

Read the rest of this entry »

When Alek Manoah takes the mound against the Boston Red Sox this afternoon, he’ll do so with an early-career track record befitting one of baseball’s best young pitchers. Since making his major league debut last May, the 24-year-old Toronto Blue Jays right-hander has allowed just 89 hits, with 145 strikeouts, in 129-and-two-thirds innings. Moreover, he augments a 12-2 won-lost record — as a team, Toronto has won all but four of his 23 career starts — with a 3.05 ERA and a 3.78 FIP.

And you probably don’t want to crowd the plate against the 6-foot-6, 260-pound hurler. Manoah, whom the Blue Jays drafted 11th overall in 2019 out of West Virginia University, led all AL pitchers last year with 16 HBPs. A gentle giant off the field, he takes no prisoners between the white lines.

Manoah talked about his repertoire — primarily his slider and his two-seamer — when the Blue Jays visited Fenway Park last week.

———

David Laurila: What do you know about your pitches that you didn’t when you first signed?

Alek Manoah: “I always knew the sinker was pretty good, just based off the hitters’ feedback. But now, understanding the numbers a little bit, it’s how drastically different it is from my four-seam. That and how it plays with my changeup. I think that would be the biggest thing.” Read the rest of this entry »

Back in my day — the mid-2000s — baseball was a simpler game. Batters socked dingers, with or without the use of performance-enhancing drugs. Teams batted slap hitters second, fast hitters first, and aging sluggers third. Catchers were valued by their bat and their throwing arm, none of this framing nonsense. And pitchers? Pitchers helped everybody out by throwing fastballs all the time, particularly on the first pitch. Seriously, take a look at this graph:

Year after year, pitchers have examined the mix of pitches they throw to lead off at-bats and decided to lop a few fastballs off the top. It’s not quite monotonically decreasing; there have been tiny upticks in a few years, and 2008 was lower, potentially due to classification issues in the first year of data. But this is as close as a trend can get to slapping you in the face.

The first pitch of an at-bat isn’t always the most important one — in a 3–2 count, one borderline pitch can be the difference between a baserunner and an out — but the difference between a 1–0 count and an 0–1 count is huge. That’s why pitchers have historically leaned on fastballs, which are easier to control; throwing a pitch outside the zone is a sure way to end up behind in the count.
Read the rest of this entry »

At 12-5, the Dodger are off to their hottest start since, um, last year’s 13-4 opening run, and they’ve done it by once again combining the league’s highest scoring rate with its best run prevention. After winning 106 games last season, it’s not a surprise that they appear to be a powerhouse again, but as opposed to last year, this time they’re doing it with the help of Cody Bellinger, who has shown signs of turning the page on a miserable, injury-marred 2021 campaign.

Thanks to a six-game stretch in which he hit three homers and collected three additional extra-base hits, Bellinger was the NL Player of the Week for the week of April 18-24. After generating some concern with a spate of strikeouts during spring training, he’s hitting .238/.294/.508, which may not look like much but in this new dead-ball era is still good for a 133 wRC+. His numbers looked a lot better (.273/.333/.582, 165 wRC+) before he went 0-for-8 across the first two games of the Dodgers’ current series in Arizona — the point at which I began mulling this piece — but such are the perils of analyzing early-season baseball. The samples are small and the stats unstable, but even with those caveats in mind, we can start by noting that Bellinger’s four home runs are as many as he had during the entire first half of last season. Some highlights from his latest jag:

In large part, Bellinger’s 2021 problems were traceable to the high point from his previous fall. After hitting what proved to be the decisive home run in Game 7 of the 2020 National League Championship Series against the Braves, he dislocated his right (non-throwing) shoulder — not for the first time — on a celebratory forearm bash with then-teammate Enrique Hernández. He continued to play through the Dodgers’ World Series victory over the Rays (though he went just 3-for-22), then underwent surgery in mid-November, and didn’t make his Cactus League debut until mid-March of last year. Read the rest of this entry »

Jared Kelley has one of the more-intriguing arms in a Chicago White Sox system that has graduated much of its top talent to the big leagues in recent years. He might be best described as promising but raw. Drafted 47th overall in 2020 out of Refugio (Texas) High School, the 20-year-old right-hander came into this season having thrown just 23.2 professional innings. Moreover, he’d put up a 7.61 ERA in the lowest rungs of the minors while battling minor arm issues.

Despite the spotty early track record, Kelley’s ceiling is high. A ballyhooed prospect as a prep, he possesses a high-velocity fastball and a trio of developing secondaries.He’s off an up-and-down start in the current campaign. In his first outing with the Low-A Kannapolis Cannon Ballers, Kelley allowed just one hit, and one run, over three strong innings. In his second, he allowed eight baserunners and three earned runs over just one-and-two-thirds innings.No. 6 on our newly-released White Sox Top Prospects list, he discussed his early career development and how he’s adapted his repertoire.

———

David Laurila: Let’s start with with your repertoire. What are you throwing now?

Jared Kelley: “I’ve been working on a four-seam fastball, a two-seam fastball, a slider, and a changeup. The sinker — the two-seam sinker — is the newest pitch.”

Laurila: I want to hear about the two-seamer, but first, I recall reading that you also throw a curveball.

Kelley: “I don’t throw a curveball anymore. I used to throw a curve, but it was more like a slurve. I don’t think it was going to play at the next level, so we changed into something a little bit harder, and a little bit easier for me to repeat.”

Laurila: When did that happen? Read the rest of this entry »

MacKenzie Gore is scheduled to make his third start of the season today. He’s been excellent, if low on stamina, in his first two starts: 10.1 innings, 10 strikeouts, four walks, and two earned runs. In a year of low offense and young pitching, this would be an unexceptional beginning – if he weren’t MacKenzie Gore, erstwhile top pitching prospect in baseball.

Lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen has written about Gore extensively. If you’re looking for a deep, nuanced look at all the mechanical changes that have sent Gore from can’t-miss to passed over in favor of Jake Arrieta, Eric has you covered. If you’re looking for some data-driven speculation based on his first two big league starts, on the other hand, boy do I have what you’re looking for. Read the rest of this entry »

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the Chicago White Sox. Scouting reports were compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as my own observations. This is the second year we’re delineating between two anticipated relief roles, the abbreviations for which you’ll see in the “position” column below: MIRP for multi-inning relief pitchers, and SIRP for single-inning relief pitchers.

A quick overview of what FV (Future Value) means can be found here. A much deeper overview can be found here.

All of the numbered prospects below also appear on The Board, a resource the site offers featuring sortable scouting information for every organization. It has more details than this article and integrates every team’s list so readers can compare prospects across farm systems. It can be found here. Read the rest of this entry »