Two weeks ago was Prospect Week here at FanGraphs. I didn’t contribute any analysis to it, because a) it was packed with really good analysis already and b) I wasn’t done compiling the thing I wanted to contribute. With some time to finish up my work — and not much else going on in our lockout-plagued sport — I’m ready to provide a bit of bonus analysis.

Last year, I used a variety of statistical techniques to come up with a list of players I thought stood a strong chance of putting together a meaningful major league career. This year, I’m … well, I’m using a variety of statistical techniques to come up with a list of players I think stand a strong chance of putting together a meaningful major league career. But this time, I’ve spent a bit more time refining my methods.

Here’s a quick overview of those methods. I used a variety of simple models based on historical minor and major league data. In each of them, I looked at a variety of key indicators in minor league hitters: statistics, age, position, level — anything I could download, essentially. I linked those minor league seasons to that player’s eventual major league career (or lack thereof).

This methodology carries many limitations, only some of which I have time to detail here. Baseball isn’t the same as it was in the past; while I think I’ve done a decent job of picking performance metrics that are stable over time, player development and the skills that are necessary to stick in the major leagues don’t look the same as they did 10 or 20 years ago.

That particular problem is inherent in everything that uses the past to predict the future, but don’t worry: my methods have way more shortcomings. For one, 2021 was a strange year to look at minor league statistics. With no 2020 season to gauge players’ skill levels, competition seemed far more variable within each league. I’m also basing much of this data on leagues that don’t exist anymore, as minor league realignment changed the makeup of the minor leagues significantly and also messed with my rudimentary park factors. I didn’t use Statcast or Trackman data, both because I don’t have a complete picture of it for 2021 and because it doesn’t exist at all in most of the years I used to train my various models. Finally, I’m using the position that each player played most in 2021 to give them a position, rather than where they’re projected to end up or what our prospect team thinks they’re best suited for.
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Danny Coulombe features a lot of breaking balls, and he does so with scant fanfare. In 28 relief appearances and one outing as an opener, the 32-year-old Minnesota Twins southpaw threw 41.8% sliders and 24.8% curveballs last year. He was also quietly effective. Taking the mound for a team that performed well below expectations, Coulombe logged a 3.67 ERA and a 3.75 FIP while fanning 33 batters and issuing just seven free passes in 34-and-a-third innings.

Emblematic of the lefty’s lack of fanfare is that I talked to him last August, and while I did include a few of his quotes in a September column — these on an online project management class that had him regularly visiting FanGraphs — I am just now sharing the crux of our conversation. What we delved into was the evolution of his breaker-heavy repertoire.

“I was predominantly four-seam/curveball when I got drafted,” said Coulombe, whom the Los Angeles Dodgers took in the 25th round out of Texas Tech University in 2012. “Coming up through the system I was mostly a curveball guy, and in 2014, a pitching coach I had, Scott Radinsky, told me that I needed something that looks like a fastball and moves. He said, ‘Right now, if a hitter sees a pop he knows it’s a breaking ball, and if he sees it straight he knows it’s a fastball.’ So we worked on developing a slider that year. I’ve always been able to spin a baseball, and now I’m probably about 70% breaking balls, curveballs and sliders.”

For Coulombe, maintaining a consistent differential between the two is a matter of mindset and grip. The latter required an adjustment, which was necessitated by unwanted blending. Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley answer listener emails about shortening the regular season, whether baserunners could tunnel under the basepaths, creating a fictional top prospect, whether umpires expanding and contracting the strike zone lengthens games, where the Hall of Fame should have been located, aesthetically pleasing pitching motions, and whether Statcast could improve the fan experience at the ballpark, plus a Stat Blast (1:02:54) about the minor league affiliates with the longest streaks of sending an alum to the World Series, a Ukraine edition of Meet a Major Leaguer featuring Izzy Goldstein (1:13:01), and a few closing lockout thoughts.

Audio intro: The Frames, “The Stars Are Underground”
Audio outro: Bee Gees, “Odessa (City on the Black Sea)”

Link to MLBPA donation tweet
Link to mole eyesight info
Link to Sam on the pit
Link to Toe Nash story
Link to Sidd Finch story
Link to Tigers impostor story
Link to story on umpire zones
Link to Ben on robo zones
Link to story on metaverse Truist Park
Link to Lilly video
Link to Jeff on the windup’s decline
Link to lefty familiarity piece
Link to sweet-swinging lefties piece
Link to Stat Blast data
Link to Isaac Johnston’s thesis
Link to Goldstein SABR bio
Link to Jewish Baseball Museum page
Link to Odessa Twitter thread
Link to Bill Cristal B-Ref page
Link to Reuben Ewing B-Ref page
Link to Goldstein B-Ref page
Link to Ukraine charities
Link to more Ukraine donation options
Link to third Ukraine donation site

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A sub-theme of this year’s Prospects Week content was the sausage-making, a peeling back of the curtain to give you a look into the process itself. To put a bow on this year’s content, I wanted to spotlight some of the list-making procedures specific to the Top 100 list. This might be helpful to anyone looking to perform a similar exercise, be it baseball prospects, NFL draft prospects, or in a bar room argument around SNL cast members. Accompanying this fairly brief post is an episode of Yeoman’s Work, a lo-fi, multimedia presentation that focuses on the prospect analysis here at FanGraphs, paired with single-camera footage from my baseball video archives. Below is Episode 2 of Season 2, which features some of what you’re about to read, as well as a look at our in-progress Twins, Red Sox, and Rays lists, and footage of some 2022 draft prospects I’ve seen recently.

Most of my narration and video archive are very quiet, low-sensory experiences without music or crowd noise, which I think will appeal to those of you who enjoy Baseball Sounds, as they are front and center in the footage. If this tone appeals to you, my biggest “musical influence” in this department is Kathleen De Vere’s online pirate radio show, Brave New Faves. I recognize not everyone has an hour and a half to devote to this, so I’ve fleshed out the concepts related to the construction of the Top 100 below, if the video isn’t your thing. Read the rest of this entry »

For Dane Dunning, consistency will be key in 2022. A first round pick back in 2016, his professional career has been pretty turbulent for someone of his draft pedigree. He’s been the headlining return in two major trades — the Adam Eaton deal in 2016 and the Lance Lynn swap in ’20 — and also lost a season and a half to a torn UCL. To further complicate matters, the beginning of the pandemic disrupted his rehab just when he was preparing to compete for a spot on a big league roster. The delayed start to the 2020 season probably benefited him, however, as he finally made his major league debut for the White Sox in August of that year.

Dunning had just gotten his feet wet at the game’s highest level when he was shipped off to Texas during the offseason. The Rangers were extremely careful with him in his first season with the organization. You can understand why. He had missed more than two seasons worth of games between his Tommy John surgery and the lack of a minor league season in 2020. His first start in the big leagues was the first time he had pitched in an official game since June 2018. In 2021, he averaged just under five innings per start and threw more than 80 pitches in a game just four times. Still, with just over 150 total major league innings under his belt, Dunning has shown some real promise, even if there are a few kinks to work out.

Last year, Dunning managed to post a 3.94 FIP that was supported by a 3.87 xFIP. Unfortunately, his 4.51 ERA far outpaced his peripherals. He didn’t give up very many home runs — just 13 all season — but he did allow a lot of contact. Opposing batters produced a 78.1% contact rate against him, well above league average, though more than half of those balls in play were put on the ground. His strikeout-to-walk ratio was almost exactly league average, which meant he wasn’t really mitigating that contact with a gaudy strikeout rate and or a minuscule walk rate. Despite those mixed results, there are some positive signs under the hood that could bode well for Dunning’s development this year. Read the rest of this entry »

Last month, I went over some possible playoff structures in an attempt to design a format that allowed for playoff expansion while still preserving the value of adding a star to the roster. I focused on 14-team structures for a couple of reasons: it was more of a challenge to make a 14-team system that didn’t grossly alter team incentives and I suspected that the players would be willing to accept the larger field if it helped them achieve some of their other negotiation priorities.

Well, we’re a month later, and there’s a little more clarity. While there is still a lot to iron out and little idea as to when the league and the players union might reach a deal on a new collective bargaining agreement, there seems to be some kind of very preliminary sorta-agreement on a 12-team playoff system, though ownership has apparently been very resistant to allowing the more highly-seeded teams any advantage outside of the traditional home field-based ones (meaning no knockout run or “ghost wins”). Read the rest of this entry »

Episode 964

This week on the show, David Laurila welcomes long-time Pittsburgh scribe and former Baseball Prospectus colleague John Perrotto to the program.

Perrotto has been covering baseball long enough to remember the last labor stoppage, and he shares his perspective on the current lockout and how it compares to 1994. After that, we get anecdotes about a number of Pirates legends, including what it was like to get to know Jim Leyland, and that one time Brian Giles took batting practice in his birthday suit. We also hear about Perrotto’s clubhouse relationship with Barry Bonds, how impressive of an interview he could be when he wanted to be, and what it took to earn the slugger’s respect.

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Audio after the jump. (Approximate 43 minute play time.)

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There’s so much going on in the world that I screwed up the intro twice and even got the episode number wrong. Nonetheless, join me and FanGraphs’ very own Ben Clemens for a discussion about the long and ultimately frustrating week-plus of labor talks, the openly available financial records of the Atlanta Braves, the politicization of Derek Jeter’s surprising announcement, and, just because everyone else seems to be talking about it, Elden Ring.

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Warning One: While ostensibly a podcast about baseball, these conversations often veer into other subjects.

Warning Two: There is explicit language.

Run Time: 1:03:35.

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Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley are joined by Evan Drellich, senior writer for The Athletic, to talk about the benefits and drawbacks of reporting from the scene of the CBA negotiations, the proper composition of photos of executives walking to meetings, not getting hoodwinked by sources, whether there really was optimism about a deal leading up to the MLB-imposed deadline for delaying the start of the season, whether MLB tried to sneak proposals past players overnight, whether the owners are trying to break the union, whether the owners and players are united internally, what still separates the two sides (and how much money it’s worth), Rob Manfred’s job security, the changing tone of national coverage of the labor negotiations, what could end the lockout, the prospect of on-field changes, and more.

Audio intro: Guided By Voices, “Cohesive Scoops”
Audio outro: Atomic Rooster, “People You Can’t Trust”

Link to Evan’s first Manfred video
Link to another Manfred video
Link to well-composed Manfred video
Link to MLB exec video
Link to Twitter pooping exchange
Link to thread on where talks stand
Link to Evan’s latest report
Link to Evan’s weekend column
Link to MLBPA statement
Link to Stripling quote
Link to Martino report
Link to article on Ohtani’s service time
Link to Clemens on the financial gap
Link to Evan on EW in November
Link to Ghiroli on the talks
Link to Rosenthal on the talks
Link to McCullough on the talks
Link to Passan on the talks
Link to Ben on Lords of the Realm

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