After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for nine years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Los Angeles Angels.

Batters

What makes the Angels a serious threat in any given season is fairly obvious: Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon. Trout starts just about every season as the MVP favorite — at least for now — and signing Rendon last winter brought in a second sorely needed superstar. A team that employs these two begins each year as top-tier contender… if they can just build a .500 team around the pair. That’s been the riddle the Halos have found themselves unable to solve; the last time the team had a winning record was 2015, and their last playoff appearance was 2014.

A decade of Trout without a single playoff win represents arguably some of the most wasted baseball potential in history. Sure, there have been examples of the Angels having terrible luck. Albert Pujols declined more quickly and more steeply than anyone imagined he would when he headed to the west coast for a mega-deal after the 2011 season. The problem is the team has frequently doubled-down on bad luck rather than mitigating its effects. Take Pujols. The Angels had little control over his walk off the proverbial cliff, but to keep playing him, hell or high water, was their decision. Nobody made the Angels essentially throw in the towel on having a major league quality first baseman for several years. Whether it’s Justin Upton or the parade of pitcher injuries, the Angels keep throwing good money after bad.

And the clock is ticking. Trout is no longer the young phenom; he’s approaching 30, and given the height of his peak, it’s likely that he’s already had his best season in the majors. The same goes for Rendon, who turns 31 next season. Read the rest of this entry »

Episode 900

In a week of Winter Meetings gone virtual, the FanGraphs crew spends some time honoring a great player we lost, previewing the Australian Baseball League, and reviewing some recent moves.

• At the top of the show, Jay Jaffe is joined by Shakeia Taylor to remember the late Dick Allen. The veteran slugger passed away earlier this week, and his legacy is one worth revisiting. Jay and Shakeia discuss how the Hall of Fame has dropped the ball when it comes to appropriately recognizing players like Allen, as well as the racism he faced throughout his career, from fan vitriol and death threats to the media at times refusing to even call him by his name. [2:24]
• Following that, David Laurila is joined by Glenn Williams, the general manager of Team Australia. A former Twins player, Glenn holds a unique major league record of his own. The pair talk about the history of baseball down under and modern legends like Liam Hendriks, as well as the upcoming Australian Baseball League season, which starts next week and can be watched online. [32:07]
• Finally, Eric Longenhagen is joined by old friend Kiley McDaniel of ESPN. The dynamic duo talks about what Kiley has been up to, the Phillies hiring Dave Dombrowski, and reactions to the Rule 5 Draft. Eric and Kiley also go over the Nate Lowe trade and what the Texas Rangers could be up to in their current position. [53:22]

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Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about and the Phillies’ surprise hiring of Dave Dombrowski as their president of baseball operations, then (15:04) bring on Baseball America executive editor J.J. Cooper to talk about the ongoing overhaul of the minor leagues, the history of the relationship between the majors and minors, why MLB sought to consolidate its control over amateur ball and the minor leagues, the impact of the pandemic, the pending improvements in conditions for minor leaguers, the virtues of amateur ball versus affiliated ball, minor league owners as sympathetic figures, how the 120 affiliated teams were determined, efficiency vs. access to the sport, and whether baseball will be better or worse off in the long run.

Audio intro: Whitney, "Dave’s Song"
Audio interstitial: The Strokes, "Under Control"
Audio outro: The Orange Peels, "Take Me Over"

Link to Jayson Stark on the Phillies hiring Dombrowski
Link to a compendium of J.J.’s coverage
Link to J.J. on the 120 teams announcement
Link to Evan Drellich on the 120 teams announcement
Link to J.J. on how the 120 teams were chosen
Link to J.J. on what’s next for excluded teams
Link to J.J. on expanded player limits
Link to J.J. on the Staten Island Yankees lawsuit
Link to J.J. on the new amateur leagues
Link to J.J. on the origins of short-season ball
Link to J.J. on minor league player expenses
Link to J.J. on minor league facility upgrades
Link to Baseball America podcast
Link to preorder the Baseball America 2021 Prospect Handbook

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Like most baseball fans ranging from prospect-curious to prospect-obsessed, I too have been awaiting Nate Lowe’s first extended big league opportunity. It appears he’ll finally get one, as the Rangers acquired him on Thursday as part of a five- or six-player trade with Tampa Bay that involves Top 100 prospect Heriberto Hernandez. Read the rest of this entry »

The 2020 Rule 5 Draft was conducted via conference call on Thursday, with 18 players selected during the Major League phase. Pre-draft chatter was focused on whether more young, inexperienced players would be picked this year due to an anticipation of expanded rosters, and a few picks appeared to be made with that in mind. Here are my thoughts on all those selected, as well as some on those picked during the Minor League phase. Remember you can venture over to The Board for more info on several of these players.

But first, my annual refresher on the Rule 5 Draft’s complex rules. Players who signed their first pro contract at age 18 or younger are eligible for selection after five years of minor-league service if their parent club has not yet added them to the team’s 40-man roster. For players who signed at age 19 or older, the timeline is four years. Teams with the worst win/loss record from the previous season pick first, and those that select a player must not only (a) pay said player’s former club $100,000 ($24,000 in the Minor League phase), but also (b) keep the player on their 25-man active roster throughout the entirety of the following season, with a couple of exceptions, mostly involving the Injured List; players taken in the Minor League phase aren’t subject to roster restrictions. If a selected player doesn’t make his new team’s active roster, he is offered back to his former team for half of the initial fee. After the player’s first year on the roster, he can be optioned back to the minor leagues. Read the rest of this entry »

Yesterday, the Seattle Mariners signed Chris Flexen to a two-year deal. The 26-year-old will earn $4.75 million in guaranteed money, with an option to make more if he hits certain innings thresholds. Per MLB Trade Rumors, the Mariners attached “a $4MM club option and, if Flexen throws 150 innings in 2022 or 300 frames from 2021-22, an $8MM vesting option.” The contract itself is a bit of a Dipoto special, as the Mariners used a similar structure when they extended Wade LeBlanc and amusingly tacked on three club options; none were picked up.

Getting back to Flexen, the right-hander spent 2020 in South Korea, but most fans will remember him from his time with the Mets. He last appeared on a prospect list back in 2017, when Eric Longenhagen hit the nail on the head with his scouting report:

“He sits 91-94, touching 96, with an average curveball and fringe change. He has a big, sturdy, inning-eating frame but has already had a surgery, and there are scouts who’d like to see if the fastball plays consistently at 96 out of the ‘pen. Others think he’s more of an up-and-down starter.”

While he debuted later that summer, the Mets ultimately rolled snake eyes on Flexen’s development. In 68 innings spread across three seasons, he posted ghastly numbers, running an ERA north of eight while walking more hitters than he struck out. It seems almost cruel to mention his home run problem at this point but, well, too late. Ineffective and out of options, Flexen faced a very uncertain future heading into 2020. Read the rest of this entry »

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The following article is part of Jay Jaffe’s ongoing look at the candidates on the BBWAA 2021 Hall of Fame ballot. Originally written for the 2017 election at SI.com, it has been updated to reflect recent voting results as well as additional research. For a detailed introduction to this year’s ballot, and other candidates in the series, use the tool above; an introduction to JAWS can be found here. For a tentative schedule and a chance to fill out a Hall of Fame ballot for our crowdsourcing project, see here. All WAR figures refer to the Baseball-Reference version unless otherwise indicated.

A savant in the batter’s box, Manny Ramirez could be an idiot just about everywhere else — sometimes amusingly, sometimes much less so. The Dominican-born slugger, who grew up in the Washington Heights neighborhood of upper Manhattan, stands as one of the greatest hitters of all time, a power-hitting right-handed slugger who spent the better part of his 19 seasons (1993–2011) terrorizing pitchers. A 12-time All-Star, Ramirez bashed 555 home runs and helped the Indians and the Red Sox reach two World Series apiece, adding a record 29 postseason homers along the way. He was the World Series MVP for Boston in 2004, when the club won its first championship in 86 years.

For all of his prowess with the bat, Ramirez’s lapses — Manny Being Manny — both on and off the field are legendary. There was the time in 1997 that he “stole” first base, returning to the bag after a successful steal of second because he thought Jim Thome had fouled off a pitch… the time in 2004 that he inexplicably cut off center fielder Johnny Damon’s relay throw from about 30 feet away, leading to an inside-the-park home run… the time in 2005 when he disappeared mid-inning to relieve himself inside Fenway Park’s Green Monster… the time in 2008 that he high-fived a fan mid-play between catching a fly ball and doubling a runner off first… and so much more. Read the rest of this entry »

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for nine years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Milwaukee Brewers.

Batters

Milwaukee’s approach to replacing Yasmani Grandal (.848 OPS in 2019), Mike Moustakas (.845), and Eric Thames (.851) took the form of, well, nothing. That’s possibly a little too cruel, but it wasn’t reasonable to expect Justin Smoak, Avisaíl García, and Eric Sogard to make up for that production. Losing Lorenzo Cain due to his opt-out — and let’s be clear that nobody should fault him at all for this — caught the team by surprise as well, necessitating Garcia as the center fielder. Overall, from 2019 to ’20, the Brewers saw improved offense at one position (shortstop), held serve at a second (center), and lost ground everywhere else. Sum up everything, and the lineup combined for an 89 wRC+, the 10th-worst in team history and a 10-point drop from 2019. To put this into context, this was only slightly better than the Brew Crew did in their one season as the Seattle Pilots.

Thanks to 16 teams qualifying for the playoffs, that still wasn’t enough to prevent Milwaukee from October baseball. Like the rest of the NL Central, the Brewers were quietly dispatched in the wild-card round. With a 16-team playoff structure unlikely for 2021, a repeat performance would likely doom any quest for a postseason appearance.

Read the rest of this entry »

This fall, during the little bit of Instructional League ball to which I was personally privy, I saw a small school reliever who was taken on Day 2 of the 2019 draft. He was sitting 96-99 and threw several great sliders. We are about a year and a half removed from when Nick Robertson was drafted, and he’s turned into the sort of prospect who, with comparable stuff, would get a bonus close to a million dollars.

Because the 2020 Draft was only five rounds, there are literally hundreds of players who would have gone in rounds sixth through 10, as well a few dozen who would have gotten a bonus well over-slot on Day 3, who are now (or again) playing college ball (and will be for a while), while many have spilled over into junior colleges or have transferred. That’s a few hundred players who may make a leap in the same amount of time Robertson did.

The group of players who was supposed to be in the 2020 Draft class was deep with talent, and so the 2021 Draft class will be very deep, too, but the industry will be working with less information, or at the very least will have one hell of a time trying to acquire it. We’ll likely still be dealing with COVID-19 in February when the college season begins, and we have yet to see all the schools where college baseball programs will become collateral damage as a result of fewer football games being played. Also remember that both COVID and the operational budgets imposed upon MLB scouting staffs will likely discourage travel next spring, just as they did during the summer. So teams will lean on data, which, remember, now gets shared. More on that in a minute. Read the rest of this entry »