I spend a lot of time saying the word “April.” It’s a convenient excuse to wave away any notion of changing my mind drastically on a player after two or three weeks of the season. But April isn’t actually meaningless, and as we head toward June, we’re already nearly a third of the way through the season. A lot of the stuff we’ve seen isn’t just a rough patch or a freak BABIP, but career trajectories changing, and that has consequences for the players and their teams. One of the most common questions about players I get in chats is some variation of “What does ZiPS think now?” I can’t answer them all, mainly because “doughy middle-aged nerd talks to his magical baseball box for an hour” sounds like the worst episode of Black Mirror ever. That said, because I do full in-season runs of ZiPS in the middle of every month, now seems like a good time to get some projectionist changes of heart for the overachieving and underperforming players.

So whose changing fortunes are most likely to lead to changed destinies? Well, to get an idea of which trajectories have changed the most, I took the current 2026 projected numbers for each player and compared them to the 2026 ZiPS projections from before this season began. We’ll start with the good news, because I’m a Baltimore native and an Orioles fan, so I need something sunny first. These are park-neutral projections, and I eliminated anyone who is projected as below replacement level, since we’re focusing on major league-relevant players.

Yesterday, sometimes known as “one Orioles loss ago,” I took a look at the hitters whose 2026 projections have changed the most since the start of this season, so now it’s the pitchers’ turn. Since we’re talking about pitchers, I also took out the guys who have missed most of the season due to injury, or the bottom 25 would just be a list of pitchers who might need Tommy John surgery.

Here are the pitchers whose 2026 ZiPS projections have improved the most since the beginning of this season, sorted by the greatest gains in projected WAR: Read the rest of this entry »

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the Cleveland Guardians. Scouting reports were compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as my own observations. This is the fifth year we’re delineating between two anticipated relief roles, the abbreviations for which you’ll see in the “position” column below: MIRP for multi-inning relief pitchers, and SIRP for single-inning relief pitchers. The ETAs listed generally correspond to the year a player has to be added to the 40-man roster to avoid being made eligible for the Rule 5 draft. Manual adjustments are made where they seem appropriate, but we use that as a rule of thumb.

A quick overview of what FV (Future Value) means can be found here. A much deeper overview can be found here.

All of the ranked prospects below also appear on The Board, a resource the site offers featuring sortable scouting information for every organization. It has more details (and updated TrackMan data from various sources) than this article and integrates every team’s list so readers can compare prospects across farm systems. It can be found here. Read the rest of this entry »

On Monday night, just after midnight, Major League Baseball released a bevy of new bat tracking data. It was accompanied by the now customary combination of an explainer from Mike Petriello and a breakdown of the most extreme players from David Adler. Like many people, I’m still trying to wrap my arms around how these data work and what we might be able to learn from them. Bat tracking metrics are complicated because swings are complicated. The various numbers are interconnected, dependent on location, pitch type, and the batter’s tendencies and intent. There’s no one perfect way to swing, and it’s easier to draw inferences about individual players than overarching conclusions. My first takeaway was that something weird is going on with Leody Taveras. I’ll write about that tomorrow, but for now I’d like to take the new metrics for a test drive. We’ll look at two specific pitch archetypes to get a sense of what these numbers do and how they look in action.

Let’s start as simple as we can. I pulled the league-average numbers for swings against four-seam fastballs right down the middle in zone 5, but I split them up. The top row shows the numbers only for competitive swings on hard-hit balls. The bottom row shows the numbers only for competitive swings that resulted in whiffs. Let’s see how these two swings might differ.

Plenty of differences jump out at you here. When a hitter misses a four-seamer right down the middle, it’s usually because they’re behind on it or under it. All of the new metrics are telling us that in their own way. I’ll capitalize all the metrics in this article, just so we get comfortable with their names and definitions. Read the rest of this entry »

Back in the halcyon days of 2021, things were looking up for Robbie Ray. After a promising but inconsistent start to his career, he put everything together all at once and won a Cy Young award. He hit free agency on the back of that season and signed a deal that guaranteed him five times what he’d made in the majors so far. The future was bright – except that Ray turned around and put up a miserable 2022 campaign, meaningfully worse across the board despite pitching in Seattle, where trained squirrels can go six innings and give up two runs in the pitcher-friendliest ballpark in the big leagues. Then he got hurt. And later got traded as salary ballast. Life comes at you fast.

Ray would hardly be the first pitcher to spike some hardware in a weak year — only six AL pitchers reached 4 WAR in 2021; Ray wasn’t one of them — and then fade away. Rick Porcello says hi, by the way. If Ray’s last act was keeping replacement-level time on the Giants, at least he got his one big payday. Expectations weren’t high, and when he was shut down with an injury only a month after returning in the second half of last year, they fell further still.

Of course, I’m writing this article, so you know that hasn’t continued. Rather than teeter into irrelevance, Ray has come out strong to start 2025. He looks as good as he has since his award-winning season – and arguably even better. So let’s look at how he’s doing it now, because whether you’re a long-time Ray-head or just seeing the first Rays of light this year, he’s a strange enough – and fun enough – pitcher to be worth taking notice of. Read the rest of this entry »

At one point or another, most of us have done the thing where we go to the refrigerator in search of a snack, decide nothing looks appealing, close the door, then come back 15 minutes later to check again and somehow feel annoyed when the contents remain unchanged. It’s a near-universal experience despite the illogical nature of the whole thing. And when we relate this experience to others, it’s always the refrigerator, even though we could just as easily choose to re-check a cabinet or the pantry. But I think this is where we do get some credit for being slightly logical. The contents of a refrigerator are far more transient than the dry and canned goods stored elsewhere in the kitchen. The fridge is where we keep the perishables, the food that by definition isn’t meant to last long. Food in the refrigerator comes and goes, rots and gets tossed, all at a much faster rate than elsewhere in the kitchen.

Park factors work a little like a refrigerator. They present a single value that contains within it the influence of several different components that vary from park to park, much in the way my refrigerator is two-thirds beverages and cheese, while yours probably has fruits and veggies and maybe some leftover ham from Easter that you should definitely throw away. Some of the components captured by park factors are static and easily measured, like surface dimensions and wall height. They’re the condiments that remain consistently stocked in the fridge door.

But sometimes you throw open the door to a park’s refrigerator and get whacked in the face with a stench of unknown origin. And that stench becomes all the more potent as it mingles with a to-go box of leftover Thai and a carton of milk growing more questionable by the day. Likewise, wind speeds, the daily dew point, and the angle of the sun at different points relative to the solstice all fluctuate and interact in a way that a scientist with the right expertise could tease out and quantify, but that remain a bit fuzzy to the casual observer.

It was these squishier components of park factors, the ones that ebb and flow as weather cycles in and out and the seasons change, that sparked my curiosity about how park factors might vary over the course of such a long season. Traditionally, park factors are calculated over multiple full seasons of data (though sometimes single-season park factors are useful for capturing more recent trends), and that’s not just a sample size consideration. A full season of data is needed to ensure a balanced schedule where every opponent faced on the road is also faced at home and vice versa. This ensures that when comparing runs per game at home to runs per game on the road, the team quality is consistent in both subsets. Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about Elly De La Cruz’s unspectacular start to the season, the firing of Brandon Hyde and what it would take for them to blame a manager for a team’s disappointing season, the hubbub about Juan Soto’s hustle, MLB’s announcement about Rivalry Weekend’s success, Kyle Schwarber and the lineage of non-Hall-of-Fame hitters who’ve appeared to have a chance at “magic number” milestones, MLB’s attempt to define the swing, the overwhelming array of Statcast stats, the latest call for Shohei Ohtani to specialize, and more.

Audio intro: Gabriel-Ernest, “Effectively Wild Theme”
Audio outro: Jonathan Crymes 2, “Effectively Wild Theme”

Link to FG on the O’s
Link to FG playoff odds
Link to BaseRuns standings
Link to Girardi firing article
Link to ESPN on Valentine
Link to FG on the Twins
Link to Soto flight confusion
Link to Ben on Jeter vs. Cano
Link to Soto in-game interview info
Link to Ben on in-game interviews
Link to Soto plays
Link to Mendoza quote
Link to MLB press release
Link to Vedder Cup story
Link to Schwarber HR stat
Link to Stathead query
Link to most HR since 2022
Link to swings article 1
Link to swings article 2
Link to new Savant leaderboard
Link to article on new metrics
Link to FG on Royals pitching
Link to Ohtani strikeout
Link to Pereda ball
Link to Ohtani article
Link to Sam on Ohtani

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I spend a lot of time saying the word “April.” It’s a convenient excuse to wave away any notion of changing my mind drastically on a player after two or three weeks of the season. But April isn’t actually meaningless, and as we head toward June, we’re already nearly a third of the way through the season. A lot of the stuff we’ve seen isn’t just a rough patch or a freak BABIP, but career trajectories changing, and that has consequences for the players and their teams. One of the most common questions about players I get in chats is some variation of “What does ZiPS think now?” I can’t answer them all, mainly because “doughy middle-aged nerd talks to his magical baseball box for an hour” sounds like the worst episode of Black Mirror ever. That said, because I do full in-season runs of ZiPS in the middle of every month, now seems like a good time to get some projectionist changes of heart for the overachieving and underperforming players.

So whose changing fortunes are most likely to lead to changed destinies? Well, to get an idea of which trajectories have changed the most, I took the current 2026 projected numbers for each player and compared them to the 2026 ZiPS projections from before this season began. We’ll start with the good news, because I’m a Baltimore native and an Orioles fan, so I need something sunny first. These are park-neutral projections, and I eliminated anyone who is projected as below replacement level, since we’re focusing on major league-relevant players. Today, we’ll cover the position players before moving on to the pitchers tomorrow.

Here are the players whose 2026 ZiPS projections have improved the most since the beginning of this season, sorted by the greatest gains in projected WAR: Read the rest of this entry »

When we last checked in on the Twins, they had stumbled out of the gate, losing eight of their first 12 games — a start that looked particularly dismal given last September’s collapse, which cost them a playoff berth. But times have changed, with the offense heating up and the pitching staff emerging as one of the league’s stingiest. Thanks to a just-ended 13-game winning streak, the Twins now own the American League’s fourth-best record (26-21, .553), though injuries to players such as Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa threaten to stall their momentum.

On May 3, the Twins beat the Red Sox 4-3 in Boston, ending a four-game losing streak that had dropped them to 13-20 and had included two walk-off wins by the Guardians. They beat the Red Sox to close out a road trip, then went home and pulled off three-game sweeps of the Orioles and Giants, punctuated by a 10th-inning walk-off victory. Back on the road, they swept three from the hapless Orioles in Baltimore before taking the first two from the Brewers in Milwaukee, running their record to 26-20. On Sunday, they finally lost again, falling to the Brewers 5-2.

The final three wins of the Twins’ streak were all shutouts, starting with a 4-0 blanking of the Orioles by starter Chris Paddack and two relievers on Thursday, continuing with a 3-0 whitewashing of the Brewers behind Joe Ryan and three relievers on Friday, and concluding with a 7-0 drubbing of Milwaukee highlighted by the work of Pablo López and three relievers on Saturday. In all, the Twins shut out their opponents for 34 consecutive innings (the longest since the franchise moved to Minnesota in 1961), beginning with the fourth inning of Wednesday night’s game, after the Orioles had scored six runs; they extended that streak until the second inning on Sunday. Read the rest of this entry »

12:01

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks! It’s a gorgeous day here in Brooklyn, and while that may not make a difference to you if you’re staring at a computer screen, it’s lightening my mood just a bit.

12:01

Jay Jaffe: Yesterday I wrote about the Braves’ outfield situation with the return of Ronald Acuña Jr. finally on the horizon https://blogs.fangraphs.com/as-the-braves-recover-from-their-sluggish-…

12:01

Jay Jaffe: Today I’ve got a piece on the Twins’ just-completed 13-game winning streak. That’s in the pipeline and should go up shortly.

12:04

Jay Jaffe: Tomorrow evening at 7 PM ET, I’ll be participating in a SABR roundtable on the subject of the recently reinstated Pete Rose and Shoeless Joe Jackson, along with Keith O’Brien (author of the recent Rose bio Charlie Hustle) and ESPN’s Don Van Natta Jr., who has reported on the reinstatement efforts regarding both Rose and Jackson. Jacob Pomrenke, an expert on Jackson and the 1919 Black Sox scandal, will serve as moderator. https://sabr.org/latest/this-week-in-sabr-may-16-2025#shoelessjoe

12:05

Jay Jaffe: It was just after last week’s chat wrapped up that all hell broke loose with the Rose news. My coverage of it is here: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/say-it-aint-so-commissioner-manfred-posthu…

12:05

Jay Jaffe: And with that housekeeping out of the way, on with the show!

Read the rest of this entry »