Pre-Deadline Top 100 Prospects Update

With the draft behind us and the trade deadline looming, I’ve made a number of updates to The Board. The signing deadline for drafted players has passed, and the 2025 class has now been ported over to the pro side of The Board. You can now see where your favorite team’s new draftees line up in their farm system, and I may yet add a few more of the very late round and/or undrafted players who signed for way over slot (looking at you, Brewers). I’ve also peeled away from the lists those players who have exceeded the rookie eligibility threshold; they’ve been moved onto the Graduates tab on The Board. This means that the farm system values have shifted, and will continue to in real time as trades are made this week.

Most importantly, however, I’ve made a sweeping update to the Top 100 Prospects list. As I noted in the spring with our last Top 100 update, there are a couple of things to keep in mind as you read, especially if you’re new to FanGraphs prospect stuff. First, the “Top 100” title is arbitrary SEO nonsense; I rank players as deep as I have them graded as 50 FV prospects or better, and as of this update, that’s 99 guys. Second, remember that Future Value is a value grade. The tools and ultimate potential upside of a player matter a lot, as does the length and consistency of a player’s performance track record and their proximity to the majors. There are players who have talent upside better than their FV grade, but if they’re risky for whatever reason, or if they’re in the low minors, I want to reflect that risk/time element in their grade.

Finally, remember that an actualized “50” is an average everyday player at a given position. Not “average” in the sense that I’m averaging every big leaguer who played that position to create a performance baseline. Rather, “average” here means that the player would fall toward the middle of the pack when we’re talking about the top 30 or so players at their position across a multi-year window. That’s a high bar. Really excellent, tenured players tend to occupy their spot on a big league roster for long periods of time. It’s hard for prospects to crack into that All-Star-caliber group, and even harder to sustain some measure of production for six-plus years of team control. Forty- and 45-grade players are good big leaguers, too, and there are many more of them across the pro baseball talent distribution than there are players who are 50s and above.

This list overwhelmingly reflects my individual evaluations and grades, with sourced opinions from scouts and executives contributing to select players where I needed to fill a gap in my viewing, or to cross-check my thinking. The in-person looks I’ve gotten at the majority of this group, plus data and video, have contributed to my conclusions here.

Below you’ll find the updated list, followed by a rundown of the clusters of players that formed around similar profiles throughout the rankings. I provide some commentary on the clusters, with a focus on players whose grades have changed on this update. If you want more information, please head over to The Board, where you can find tool grades, pitch repertoires, full scouting reports, and more. I’ll be updating the hard-hit rates (as of 7/22) of the position player prospects throughout the rest of this week, so check back to see how those have changed compared to last year.

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McGonigle’s BP at the Futures Game was opinion-altering. He has real juice in his hands, and he’s going to get to his power in games not only because he’s a skillful hitter, but because his swing is geared for launch. His arm isn’t a fit at shortstop. You could argue he should be the lone 65 FV prospect given the state of second base at the big league level right now, which aside from Ketel Marte and Jazz Chisholm Jr., is really light on power hitters. Basallo would have ranked first if not for his lack of plate discipline. He’s not a good catcher right now, though at his size, age, and relative inexperience due to injury, you can project he’ll stay behind the dish. But he might chase himself into a disappointing outcome. Made’s shortstop defense is getting better and might be really great at peak. He’s one of the best pure athletes in the minors, and has ridiculous range and body control. You could argue for any of Made, Griffin, and Walcott to be no. 1. Griffin has the most present power of that group (his swing looks like a righty version of Roman Anthony’s), but his length causes him to push a lot of contact the opposite way. Walcott is more often on time to pull, but he’s a lower launch guy. Neither of them has fully actualized their power yet; when they do, it’s going to be a lot of fun. Made is pretty easily the best pure hitter of the three.

How Lawlar fills in for Eugenio Suárez at third base will be fascinating. His ability to dive or slide and then recover to throw is remarkable, but he’s also a tightly wound guy who looks uncomfortable in on the grass. He’s graded in a vacuum here, basically where he’d be were he going to play shortstop. De Paula is starting to actualize his power and is doing so without sacrificing contact. He has roughly average raw power right now and should still grow into at least one more grade as he ages into his mid-20s. Miller and Williams are having tough seasons on paper, but I’m trying not to overreact to either’s struggles. Miller still looks great both to the eye and when you look under the hood at his TrackMan data. I’ve written about Williams’ strikeout risk in the past, but even I’m surprised by how much his performance has swooned this year. He’s such a great defender that he should be a really good player anyway.

Arias moved into this group during this year’s list cycle and Gonzalez enters on this update, but the others have been here since February. Gonzalez looks incredible down in the DSL. His numbers (90% zone contact, 37% hard-hit rate, 104 mph EV90 as a 17-year-old) aren’t as bonkers as Jesús Made’s were at this time last year, but they’re approaching that. I’m not quite ready to stuff De Vries way up in the Top 10 because whether or not he’s a shortstop is still a question for me, and he doesn’t quite have the same bat speed as the 60 FV hitters. He’s more of a 50-hit/55-power combo with a swing actualized to get to it in games. He’s also the second youngest fella here, and I might be underrating his power projection. If you think so, then imagine him right behind Lawlar; I think that’s justifiable.

This group is pretty self-explanatory, though I’ll add that Jenkins’ raw power has not developed as hoped, and he slid out of the 55 FV tier due more to that than to injury. DeLauter (broken hamate) and Rodriguez (oblique) both got hurt again recently.

This contingent includes the 50 FV pitchers whose long-term ceiling could be bigger than that grade. All of these guys could move into the 55 FV tier during the next few months if they continue to throw strikes. Obviously, Anderson’s timeline for a move into the 55s is more April/May of next year, as it’s unlikely he’ll pitch again in 2025.

Briceño is the best pure hitter of this group and also the youngest, but the others have better chance to be a good defensive catchers. Liranzo’s freaky switch-hitting pop creates some distance from the rest of this group, and if you wanted to argue that Macks’ defense is special enough to pull him up into that range I think you could, he’s just going to strike out a ton. Ford might be a trade candidate due to the presence of Cal Raleigh ahead of him. Jensen is again on here while Blake Mitchell is not (yet), because Jensen has better plate discipline and is a level closer to the majors than Mitchell is.

This group is structured prioritizing proximity and positional value. Alcántara is a prime trade candidate because he’s running out of option years and needs to be given a prolonged big league opportunity soon. His size and length mean he’s going to need a longer runway to adjust, and the Cubs’ timeline doesn’t really align with that. Hope’s contact rate is in the mid-60s this year, which is a bit of a concern. You could pull Lazaro Montes up from the 45+ FV tier and into this group if you wish. Mid-season swoons by Lombard and Nimmala kept them from the group headed by De Vries above. Isaac has some of the best raw power in all of pro baseball, but he was striking out at a 30% clip again when he was shut down with injury last month. Farmelo (rib stress fracture) has also dealt with yet another injury this season. You could slide those two all the way to the back with the injured pitchers if you like, and if they don’t play again this summer, that’s what I’ll end up doing in the offseason.

Schlittler was a 45 FV prospect during the offseason, but his velocity kept climbing this year and it’s rare to find guys his size who also throw strikes in the upper-90s. Note the gap between most of these names and the Witherspoon/Bremner duo, which is due entirely to proximity rather than talent. Though, because Bremner is an Angel, he’ll probably close that gap pretty quickly. Stephen is now in his second consecutive year of working nearly 100 (or more) innings and has shown special command. All three of his pitches are playing like above-average weapons. It was only a couple of years ago when he was struggling at Purdue; now he’s on the doorstep of the majors.

Players in this cluster either have great feel for contact but only fair power (Willits for now, Pratt, Ingle, Keaschall, Benge), or are more balanced hitters with issues on defense (Arroyo, Reimer, also Keaschall). Peña’s underlying hit data is exceptional, but his defense has regressed compared to his spring look. I had been skeptical of Arroyo due to his swing path, which leaves him vulnerable to elevated fastballs, but he’s gotten better and better at laying off the pitches he can’t handle, and his ability to do damage to all fields against basically every other pitch type has held up even as he’s been exposed to Double-A pitching. He’s still a bad defender, but I buy that he’ll hit enough to be good anyway. Celesten’s risk is less about excessive strikeouts and more about whether or not he can polish his swings to the point where he can access his power in games.

Each of these players brings something unique to the table. Yesavage has three plus pitches, but his delivery requires a ton of effort; there really isn’t anyone else in the game whose mechanics look like this, certainly not among the starting pitchers. Williams and Cunningham lack the size of most successful everyday big leaguers.

All of these pitchers command mid-90s fastballs that also feature nasty uphill angle, which hitters struggle to match. They also tend to have shallow, inconsistent secondary pitches that are difficult to control. Jump moves into this area after struggling to throw strikes for basically his entire lifetime as a prospect until his draft spring at LSU. He’s now had two consecutive seasons with walk rates under 8% and he’s sustaining mid-90s velocity this year even though he’s on pace to double his previous high in innings. The Athletics’ pitching development, overall, seems to have taken a step forward.

Some combination of injury and wildness has plagued this trio all year. Matthews is walking 8 per 9 IP as of this update; Smith has 29 walks in 40.2 innings but has also struck out 62 guys. Part of Dana’s appeal as a prospect entering the 2025 season was his size/control combo, which theoretically should allow him to eat a ton of innings. Instead, he has struggled to pitch enough in the bigs to graduate.

All three of these hitters have lower-impact offensive ability, but all three are premium, top-of-the-scale defenders who do enough at the plate to be considered an everyday player in the aggregate.

The Cubs have shockingly helped Wiggins throw strikes with basically his entire repertoire, and his arm action looks much more fluid and natural now than it did when he was in college. He and Hopkins (who, remember, was mostly a hitter in college and is still developing as a pitcher) are the two from this group most likely to remain starters long-term.

Quero is dealing with more shoulder trouble after missing last year recovering from labrum surgery. Sykora’s TJ was announced yesterday and the timing of it will likely cost him all of next year, too.