Pre-Trade Deadline Top 100 Prospects Chat

Brendan Gawlowski: Hello everybody

Eric A Longenhagen: Hello from a dangerously hot Arizona where there is thankfully an off day before ACL playoffs begin.

Eric A Longenhagen: Though tomorrow’s forecast high is 115 so just delaying the inevitable.

Brendan Gawlowski: We made another list, as I’m sure you’re all aware.

Eric A Longenhagen: Thanks for coming to our joint chat about it

Brendan Gawlowski: Eric, would you say we had more daylight guys here than on the offseason list?

Brendan Gawlowski: There’s at least a few. Maybe just nature of the midseason format and a little less time to really grind.

Eric A Longenhagen: Maybe, I think how to interpret things at this stage of the season while things are still going can differ, person to person.

Eric A Longenhagen: I think there are lots of players we both like, but to what degree is different.

Eric A Longenhagen: But let’s talk through some of the players where there’s maybe a bigger gap as we take questions about them.

Eric A Longenhagen: We’ll probably discover some of one another’s thoughts as we go.

wiguy94: How much consideration to Josh Adamczewski get for the list and what ultimately kept him off the list?

Eric A Longenhagen: A lot. We like him, and as we do a more complete update of Brewers during the next week he might join the 50s. But shooting from the hip knowing we were about to deep dive Milwaukee, both of us felt more like he’s a good platoon outfielder than a true everyday force.

Brendan Gawlowski: We talked about him a lot

baseballfan115: Has Kayson Cunningham shown enough pop to warrant being a pick to click for next year?

Brendan Gawlowski: Not for me

Eric A Longenhagen: Agreed.

Eric A Longenhagen: Tough look at Futures for him

Eric A Longenhagen: Lots of stronger dudes around, had a pretty tepid BP.

weekapaug09: Did Caminiti or Gil come close to cracking the “100”?

Brendan Gawlowski: Caminiti yes, Gil not really. Fair bit up in the air with him.

crossedup: River Ryan at FV 55.. I understand the upside but turning 28 next month and currently shut down at what point do you have to dock him down more just due to at the end of his rookie deal he’ll be 34.

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, it’s a weird one. He might be declining in four years, and also some of the young players ranked behind him may not have debuted yet. I think if he’s shoving in October we’ll collectively feel like, “duh, I’m glad we did this.”

Brendan Gawlowski: We think he’s a mid-rotation starter -10 weeks ago

Eric A Longenhagen: ANd it’s hammy not arm stuff..

Brendan Gawlowski: Just a big leaguer hanging out in Triple-A out of team (non) need

doink000: What’s keeping Kilen from breaking the top 100? He seems to have a decent floor and has rebounded from last year’s injured marred debut. Lack of top end ceiling?

Brendan Gawlowski: Another Futures Game guy

Brendan Gawlowski: Nothing all that loud, statistically or visually

Brendan Gawlowski: Can play short, but not spectacularly; can hit a little but not a ton of pop and there’s some chase

Brendan Gawlowski: He’s good, he’s going to play for a little while

Brendan Gawlowski: But feels like more of a 45

BeyondTheHalo: Did Dylan Jordan or Johnny Slawinski merit any top 100 discussion? If so, what kept them off?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, I like both of these guys. Slawinkski I’m not taking the extreme strike-throwing performance at face value. It’s cool, it’s a good sign, but he isn’t *that* special such that I wanna stuff a rookie ball pitcher on the hondo. He’s deceptive, he has a good changeup. I like him. Jordan (and there are a lot of pitcher across the league like this) is more about taking stock of what he’s done at the end of the season when he’s thrown more like 100 innings.

Brendan Gawlowski: I’ve watched Jordan a little bit recently and I think it aligns well with the offseason report

Eric A Longenhagen: The stamina and durability piece of the puzzle is a big one for me when we’re talking about pitchers. So let’s see how things look at the very end.

Brendan Gawlowski: He’s not super projectable

Eric A Longenhagen: Jordan I like the athlete and fastball angle a lot

Eric A Longenhagen: Agree he’s not the most projectable

Brendan Gawlowski: And to Eric’s point, if he is a 50 at the end of the day, big innings totals are going to be a part of the equation

Brendan Gawlowski: So let’s see what it looks like as he builds up

Christopher Bourbois: I was curious why Caleb Bonemer has dropped so far even with strong production in AA. Do you all view him as a 1B/DH only now?

Brendan Gawlowski: I think it’s under a 50/50 he stays at third, maybe under 25/75

Eric A Longenhagen: Terrifyingly low contact rate, maybe isn’t an infielder at all.

Eric A Longenhagen: Of course, Colson and Murakami have scary contact rates, too.

Brendan Gawlowski: Stiff operation in the box

Brendan Gawlowski: If he’s a R/R 1B, he needs to hit like Hoskins to be a 50, essentially. And he might! He’s on the list because we see the chance.

Brendan Gawlowski: But there’s a lot more risk here than I’d have guessed before I dove in on him.

abravesfan25: Did Robert Arias get any consideration for the T100, or did the injury kick him into the ‘need to see how he looks when he’s back’ bucket?

Brendan Gawlowski: The latter

aviaries: Josue De Paula is a consensus T10 guy between Pipeline, BA, and BP. What makes you guys the low men besides what was mentioned in the blurb?

Eric A Longenhagen: De Paula has an excellent statistical case, as you can see in the table at the bottom of the update post. His defense is a body blow to his overall profile. He’s bad out there. Really, very bad. I’m sure our peers know that and considered it.

Brendan Gawlowski: Tracking like a DH. If he’s Yordan 2.0, we’ll have been light and we’ll have to live with that.

baseballfan115: I believe it was Brendan who mentioned Enddy Azocar as a potential high ceiling. Do you see him reaching that ceiling quickly or is he a slow burn?

Brendan Gawlowski: Acclimating slowly in High-A, still on the tools. There’s a bit of a split between us on the Greenville Red Sox guys. I like Azocar more, Eric likes Gonzales

aviaries: How old would River Ryan have to be for you to kick him off the list

Eric A Longenhagen: There’s no upper boundary, just rookie status or not. Tommy Nance debuted at 30 and has been damn good, that guy belonged on the list. Teams care about the 30-year-old throwing 98.

Brendan Gawlowski: Seconded

Festivus: What kept Demetrio Crisantes from being a 50 and in the list? Think he’s an every day player? Think the hit tool is a 60?

Eric A Longenhagen: Sort of like Adamczewski, we dig this guy but don’t think the tools rise to the level of a 50. He’s a 45, I wish he played a second position. Hit tool has been like a 60 when you combine the last three years, more in the 50/55 area so far this year.

Brendan Gawlowski: He’s probably the top Dback though

Brendan Gawlowski: Tough year for them

Theodore: By next summer, will both Ryan Sloan and Kade Anderson deserve to be in the Seattle rotation, or will they only make room for Anderson?

Brendan Gawlowski: Team need is such a big part of when guys make the jump. See: Ryan, River. Anderson I would guess yes but there are so many durable and good starters already there. I wouldn’t be floored if one of them gets traded, even though guys in their prospect orbit basically never do.

Snerd: Hey Eric, Brendan – Charles Davalan is obliterating A+. Is his 45 and exclusion from the List simply just a function of a polished 22yo college bat doing what he’s supposed to at A+ and needing to see the skills transfer to higher levels, or are you guys actually down on what he brings to the table? His LAD report had you mostly tepid on his power and defense, and he sure seems to have at least mostly answered for the power concern this year.

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, and I’m working on the Dodgers version of the Braves piece Brendan just published. Great little contact hitter, not a CF for me, doesn’t have the power I want to see from a corner guy. I’ll go out with a 45+ on him on Monday because I think there’s a chance enough of the hit tool translates versus lefties for him to be an everyday guy anyway, but you (and other chatters with similar queries) have nailed it that we wanna see this guy do it against advanced arms. Davalan is older than all these other Dodgers top 100-ish guys (except Tibbs) and at least one level below them.

aiyer917: Kyson Witherspoon is making some tweaks by the look of it, do you think there’s an avenue for him to get the command back and hop back on the horse? He looked like the clear BPA that year for Boston

Brendan Gawlowski: Is there a path? Sure. The way his fastball was getting hit was a big factor in pumping the brakes initially, so that’s going to be a factor too, in addition to the command.

baseballfan115: When evaluating outfielders, how much do you factor in ballpark conditions and altitude?

Brendan Gawlowski: It can complicate the evaluation, moreso in a tiny park like Everett’s, where you can watch a guy for a week and he might just never get to stretch his legs. It’s impressive and a point in a guy’s favor when a he is able to fight through tough conditions (big wind, tough sun, etc.)

warpath: I couldn’t help but notice Eduardo Tait was dead last in chase rate among the prospect in that table you guys shared. I suspected it was bad because he’s struggled a little in A+ this year, but the actual number was eye-popping. Is he in danger of falling out of the Top 100 for next year?

Eric A Longenhagen: I compare him to a lefty Jorge Alfaro in the piece because that is what it looks like when tools this big are undermined by an approach this bad.

Cromulent: Curious about a not-quite-100 guy, Pick to Clicker Jansel Luis. How is he progressing? He seems to this non-scout to be neither fully clicking nor obviously clunking.

Brendan Gawlowski: I think that’s the right read. Reports from scouts have been okay. He wasn’t really in consideration for the list, but he’s still a prospect.

meatloaf: In your article, you included two tier for pitchers with some type of relief risk. In FanGraphs’ most recent Top 100s, there have tended to be one or two players identified as SIRPs. What does a 50 FV single-inning relief pitcher look like? About how many current big league relief pitchers are at or above 50-grade present value?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think the best 15 or so guys at any given time I’d value on par with an average everyday player or better. Like Mason Miller, if you were gonna rank him knowing what you know now, where would you feel comfortable doing it? I’d have a 60 on him and rank him like 10th.

Eric A Longenhagen: Major League Leaderboards – 2021 to 2026 – Relievers | FanGraphs Baseball

Eric A Longenhagen: And there was a point where having him on there at all was novel.

ja1145: Was Francisco Renteria considered?

ja1145: Ramon Marquez close to the list?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes and yes. Renteria is likely to be a corner guy, and his current performance is more about power than contact. The sticky data traits from rookie ball are the contact pieces, not so much the power. This is where mistakes like Maikel Escotto get made, by caring too much about the power too early. Marquez I’d refer to my prior comment about pitching and stamina. It’s especially true for Marque, who is little and whose delivery is violent. He has a 70 changeup, though. It’s one of the best in the minors. He’s going to be something, that something might just be a good reliever.

Darren Knowles: Was David Shields a consideration for the list?  Has his stuff taken a step forward at High-A?

Brendan Gawlowski: Shields is still sitting in the low-90s in not terribly long outings. We like him, but we either need more arm strength, more length, or more proximity before we jump him.

Jeremy Fox: Do the Phillies have any plausible trade chips, even just for minor bullpen upgrades? No one’s trading for Aidan Miller right now and the Phils would want to hang on to him anyway. Painter’s totally lost his luster, plus the Phils need him as a depth starter. Instead of trading Gage Wood for bullpen help you could just call him up and put him in the bullpen. Escobar, Nori, and Cabrera have really struggled all year, so wouldn’t bring back anything of value. Chace just had TJ, no one’s trading for him. And Crawford and Rincones Jr. are in the majors (where the latter is struggling mightily). Can the Phils get any relievers worth getting (never mind any help elsewhere) in exchange for low-level flyers?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think there are probably teams who like guys the Phils have taken (college pitches, mostly) in the last couple of drafts.  Those teams might have some preconceived notions about how to develop them that they had before the draft, and that the Phila have not been able to execute.

Eric A Longenhagen: But you’re right that they’re in a sell-low situation on basically everyone, which stinks.

weekapaug09: Who is suffering the most from prospect fatigue and why is it Emmanuel Rodriguez? The production hasn’t wavered. 137 wRC+ in AAA and even with (another) injury delaying things, he’s still just 23.

Brendan Gawlowski: It’s not prospect fatigue, it’s related to our ongoing concern about his ability to cover the upper half of the zone and (maybe to a lesser extent) to stay in center with all the injuries.

baseballfan115: What is Juneiker Caceras’s perceived upside as a hitter if you feel he has special feel to contact and his power numbers have been strong this year?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think he looks like David Peralta (another guy who in a perfect world gets stuffed on these lists regardless of his age)

Brendan Gawlowski: Watching his first couple of High-A AB’s, he’s still making the kind of freaky contact he was able to pull off at Hill City

Brendan Gawlowski: Credit to Eric for pushing him here, he was right

baseballfan115: Between Jansel Luis and Brayden Taylor, it seems like both are flawed players with the potential to be 50 bat/power but that Taylor has more defensive upside and that’s why he’s higher on the list. I’m thinking for fantasy purposes that values power over contact and does not include defense. Is there much of a difference between them when thinking only about offensive production?

Eric A Longenhagen: Taylor has largely been able to outperform his raw power because his swing is geared for huge launch.

Brendan Gawlowski: Taylor is also performing and Luis isn’t

rossredcay: Slater de Brun has been getting tuned up at the complex after missing most of the season.  I’m assuming he gets bumped to A ball after the complex season ends?  Have either of you seen him and, if so, does he look all the way back post-injury?

Eric A Longenhagen: He looks like Landscape Evan Carter

Eric A Longenhagen: Whereas Evan Carter looks like Portrait Slater de Brun

Lark: Are there any tendencies on feedbacks you’ve received from industry sources? Like, they don’t trust catching prospects for they are too volatile?

Brendan Gawlowski: Someone told Eric we were drunk on tools, that’s maybe the funniest/most insightful thing?

Eric A Longenhagen: IDK, I think we factor in the data and proximity plenty.

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s only once in a while am I willing to say “fugg it, I like Elly/Bleis/Frias this much”

Brendan Gawlowski: Yeah I think we’re fine too

Eric A Longenhagen: Drake Baldwin was a data-centric and positional value stuff for me.

Eddy: Just want to say that including the batted ball data chart in your updated T100 was incredible and should absolutely be a staple moving forward.

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, see?

rossredcay: Eric mentioned the other week that he’s kind of in on Rafe Perich as having something like Kerry Carpenter upside.  Do you all think he could be that except without the platoon issues (since he’s a switch hitter)?  Or is he not strong enough with his righty swing?

Eric A Longenhagen: Righty swing is not as good.

Brendan Gawlowski: And it’s not like betting big on Yolfran/Brito aged badly

salisburysteak: Question re. Kendry Chourio: if it was up to you, how fast would you move him? I think you wrote at one point in the past about the tendency of little guys like that to burn out quickly, so there’s a case for rushing them to the bigs before they burn out, right?

Brendan Gawlowski: I would keep moving him as his talent dictates.

Brendan Gawlowski: The one thing I would NOT do

Brendan Gawlowski: Is throw him in three inning chunks to reduce innings

Brendan Gawlowski: And skip starts

Brendan Gawlowski: and screw with his schedule in a way that encourages him to throw 99 while he’s on the mound

matt: Of the Complex hitting standouts outside Arias/Arguelles (Franklin Primera/Jhomnardo Reyes/Jirvin Morrillo/Joswa Lugo/Alessander De La Cruz) did any get serious top 100 consideration? And if so who? Was sort of surprised Primera did not make it

Eric A Longenhagen: Primera has the best data case of that group. Reyes is corner guy w/o much projection, De La Cruz I think is a mirage, Morillo and Lugo contact rates are too scary (though both have real power). I’m coming around on Primera in part because of the defense piece being potentially very strong, too. Brendan was not ready.

topanga jeff: Looking at Taitn Gray.  How does his skill set compare to Ralphy Velazquez, who also quickly moved to 1B from C.

Eric A Longenhagen: Better contact hitter, more like Josh Bell for me.

abravesfan25: A little surprised to see Thomas White bump up to a 60 while on the shelf.  Did he look that good while active this year?

Eric A Longenhagen: He stayed a 60.

scotth855: Nolan Perry hasn’t come back from being hit in the noggin, but was he a consideration for the top 100?

Brendan Gawlowski: We looked, and obviously we saw him at the Futures Game. Looks a little more 4/5 to me than clear no. 4.

scioscia: Angels farm in general trending upwards? Or too many prospects still stalling out?

Brendan Gawlowski: I don’t think it’s a top 10 system or anything but gently on the rise seems fair, yeah.

Brendan Gawlowski: TGA/Bremner haven’t really leapt, which isn’t great.

jamesnewburg: How concerned should we be about Frias’ GB and pull rates?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s a lanky 18 year old with insane bat speed and rotational athleticism. Ideally, he doesn’t hit balls 116 mph exclusively into the ground at peak, but at this stage I’m not as concerned about optimizing his contact style and just want him to become fluent in baseball and see what happens naturally as he does that. Junior Caminero‘s average launch angle in 2022 when he first went from rookie to A-ball was 5 degrees. It would have been correct not to care at all about that.

rickdugo3000: curious what changed the eval of justin gonzales to take him from a 45 on the red sox list on 5/22 to a 50 2 months later? IIRC on the list there were some concerns about athleticsim, bat speed, swing — assuming those havent gone away is it just great data? or something else to make us believe? (was it the slap?)

Brendan Gawlowski: Daylight guy. The data is tremendous, and understandably persuasive. I’m a little scared of the how, still.

Eric A Longenhagen: I just think he’s such a physical freak that I buy it will work out, I agree his swing and lack of feel for sweetspot contact are weird.

salisburysteak: @Brendan – thanks for the insight on Chourio, hadn’t realized they were handling him like that

Brendan Gawlowski: To be clear: they’re not doing that

Brendan Gawlowski: But a lot of teams eventually do go that path with guys like this

Brendan Gawlowski: And I hope KCR does not

Brendan Gawlowski: He’s throwing his 4-5 innings for the most part and that’s fine

Salty: Eric – great to see Heriberto H really holding his own.  A potential 20/10 season if he keeps the current use up, with only a 25% K-rate vs RHP that may indicate he’s hanging in there while still crushing lefties.  Props to you for seeing something before most or anyone saw on him.

Eric A Longenhagen: Heribertgod! I over ranked him but yeah I’m glad he’s something. He’s been more like a 40+.

second-pot: Kade Anderson is (understandably) getting a ton of shine but still has the awkward roadblock ahead of him in the rotation in Seattle. Is he worth taking a flier on now before someone else does in a 12T league over someone like Soriano or Prielipp?

Eric A Longenhagen: If you can afford a week where you lose the start, then yeah. I think there’s a chance they move a SP in a biggie before the deadline and he comes up right after. If you need this week bad then pick up Soriano.

BKhipsterball: Did get to watch the Futures Game. What’s the deal with Rainiel’s defense?

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s not as bad on tape with guys he works with every week, but yeah that was bad. His throwing is weird, too. It works, but it’s weird.

weekapaug09: Do you think Didier Fuentes is a starter longterm? Where would he rank on the list of Atlanta let him develop in the minors as a dedicated SP vs using him as a reliever all season?

Brendan Gawlowski: He’d presumably still be a 50 if he was shoving as an SP in Gwinnett. I assume he’s still going to start long term. There’s a lot of precedent for letting a pitcher get his feet wet like this before entering the rotation. Including multiple arms in Atlanta’s starting five.

Fangraphs Man: Who’s the best prospect you think is likely to get moved this deadline?

Brendan Gawlowski: It’s pure speculation, but I’ll say Z. Hope. So many outfielders in that system.

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ll say Lombard

NatsFan: Given your prior views, presume Seaver King did not get any in consideration here. But do you have a refreshed view of him? Kiley has him #2 on his new Nas list. And K Law has him # 36 overall on his latest.

Brendan Gawlowski: I dove into him and came away with the same conclusion as Eric.

clydethedog: What more can Josue De Paula do in AA to put him as a top 10 prospect?

Eric A Longenhagen: Catch the baseballs that are hit to him.

weekapaug09: S/o for keeping Bloss on the lists. Feel like the world forgot about him.

Brendan Gawlowski: I’ve always liked Eric’s method of keeping the injured guys on the 100 when they get hurt. Like a bookmark.

Eric A Longenhagen: A small portion of it is lehigh valley homerism

Eric A Longenhagen: Like 2% of it

higginsford: Eric how do you feel about LeBron to the Sixers? How does Baumann feel?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m feeling good, I hope Brown isn’t as strange a cat as I worry he is. It will be a jam packed winter of sports at the FanGraphs Desert Vista Compound with an arrow up Flyers team, this Sixers roster, and the refreshed Grizzlies

Eric A Longenhagen: Zombie Coyotes are still blacked out here

Brendan Gawlowski: And also soccer

Eric A Longenhagen: Maybe soccer, yeah. I dusted off Fifa last night.

Eric A Longenhagen: 2002 for Gamecube

Person: Fish list was just 5 weeks ago, but has CamCan actually changed anything to go from a .125 ISO before to .340 since (just not enough to reach 50 FV in that short a time), or is it mostly sample noise?

Brendan Gawlowski: A good candidate for the “Wait, what?!” treatment. And maybe the answer is “I’m sticking with it,” but he obviously handled AA in a way I wasn’t anticipating

broeygallo: Those Willits and DFG launch numbers rock. That combined with the Nats leading the league in runs and homers and, well, I’m not sure what they’re teaching over there but I’m in on it.

Eric A Longenhagen: Fitz uptick had a little more to do with defense than the other stuff, but yeah.

Charles Bengal Tiger: Did you consider dropping De Vries down to a 55 or 50 because of his subpar Futures Game looks and middling bat at Double-A?

Eric A Longenhagen: Nah, too punitive, just is why he’s not 2nd.

weekapaug09: Seth Hernandez is the best HS righty prospect since _____?

Eric A Longenhagen: Hunter Greene

Milton Babip: As a Twins fan I certainly am not complaining, but I am curious about Walker Jenkins‘ significant rise in grade and rankings. The Twins were one of the last team prospect lists you guys published this spring, so we have an eval from 1.5 months ago saying Jenkins was good but lower for you than consensus, along with a 50 grade. What new info is persuasive in placing him now in the top 5 as a 60?

Brendan Gawlowski: Real uptick in measurable power and a great look at the Futures Game.

Brendan Gawlowski: Also a case where perhaps I put my thumb on the scale a bit, I wasn’t involved on the twins list and didn’t weigh in heavily at list time. But after seeing him live, I came away really impressed

Raysfan42069: The 2002 FIFA world cup game is awesome btw. If you can get your hands on that, its a 70 game

Eric A Longenhagen: Wiped Luigi’s Mansion off the memory card to play an Italian League season with Venezia, because there’s a Tempe pizza place called Venezia’s.

Eric A Longenhagen: (it’s fine, i miss east coast pizza)

Brendan Gawlowski: Eric, dovresti venire con me la prossima volta vado in italia

dshtern1: Eric, the Yankees have not traded from their very top of the system in a while- do you think trading Lombard is self-scouting that he may not be a star player or more a sign of pricing/gritting their teeth for a big difference maker?

Eric A Longenhagen: I just think there are enough big fish out there that make a lot of sense for them, and they have enough SS inventory to make a like that. Lombard’s no lock as much as we like him. He’s gonna K a bunch.

baseballfan115: What does Bo Davidson have to do to reach a 40 hit tool? If he does, does he rocket up the list?

Brendan Gawlowski: Another case where the “how” is what has me a little concerned. I wrote this in the Giants list, and I think it holds up.

Brendan Gawlowski: Davidson is quiet in the box. He has a closed-off stride and hits with practically no load at all. He keeps his head and lower half still, so when he does turn it loose, it comes with a surprising level of ferocity. Even if he’s tapped out physically, the 23-year-old is already producing plus 90th-percentile and max exit velos. He sprays the ball around and can drive it out to all fields, though like a lot of guys with a closed stance, he doesn’t handle the ball inside very well. That and some vulnerability on fastballs upstairs — his swing isn’t grooved but, perhaps because of the load, he needs a beat to get going and can be late up there — gives pitchers a couple ways to attack him. This is a case where the data is mostly good, but the visual look leaves me a little concerned about how much he’ll hit.

tmh198: Lazaro Montes…will he ever make enough contact to be a viable starting OF/DH in the middle of a lineup? Monster power, but K rate is scry!

Eric A Longenhagen: We’re tracking toward Brendan being more correct about Condon and me being more correct about Laz.

mspir: how do you see sirota and gillen differing at the plate? the numbers in the table you shared are very similar

Eric A Longenhagen: The in-zone contact piece of it is meaningfully different, and their handedness matters, too.

liljebbie10: If you were the Pirates, which prospects would you move in a potential trade and which would you not? Excluding Seth Hernandez as he seems close to untouchable at this point

Eric A Longenhagen: If teams are as crazy go nuts for Florentino as the online zeitgeist seems to be I’d move him.

cc007: If De Paula’s defense is so bad, and the obvious path to DH and 1st being blocked for the next 2 years – Why would the Dodgers not sell high?

Brendan Gawlowski: Nightmares about Josh Fields.

Brendan Gawlowski: Less tongue in cheek, they’re presumably internally looking for/brainstorming paths to keep him on the field

Ray Darwin: What are the specifics behind Joshua Baez’s inability to hit?

Eric A Longenhagen: His hands fire from a dead stop, terrifying. Righty Zac Veen.

Brendan Gawlowski: Kjerstad did/does this too

Eric A Longenhagen: ugh, I thought there was enough bat control that that one was gonna work.

Brendan Gawlowski: I once asked an older scout who was the best hitter he could remember hitting like that and he hit me with Moises Alou

Brendan Gawlowski: So, it can work… But it’s a red flag for me

Hazmat Corntail: With Angel Genao moving up on the list and still pretty blocked in CLE, what are the odds of him in another teams uniform in two weeks?

Eric A Longenhagen: Betcha they entertain trading Rocchio during the offseason. Sell-high, entering arb, Genao in the mix for ’27 then.

noahtn: Which prospect surprised you most in this look? Anybody come truly out of left field, if you will?

Brendan Gawlowski: Tyson Hardin continuing to get better.

Brendan Gawlowski: Southisene so quickly going from last year’s debut season to this

Brendan Gawlowski: Aaron Walton‘s rise

Brendan Gawlowski: Eric, any for you here?

Eric A Longenhagen: Walker Jenkins’ Futures BP was big for me.

Eric A Longenhagen: Aiva Arquette contact rate

Eric A Longenhagen: Elian Pena breaking ball adjsutments

Brendan Gawlowski: Ebel being as good as he’s been after a brutal start

cc007: What’s the best outcome comp for Murf Gray

Eric A Longenhagen: Geno Suarez is probably the absolute right tail outcome. More likely outcomes include Ryon Healy 힐리, Chris Johnson, Vientos, Jake Burger type stuff

Alexander: What system changed the most in the half of season (positively or negatively)?

Eric A Longenhagen: Probably the Mets (bad)

Eric A Longenhagen: Well, some of it is bad

Eric A Longenhagen: Some of it is good. They graduated Ewing, Benge, McLean.

Brendan Gawlowski: Graduating three good big leaguers is great. Everything else… less so.

Eric A Longenhagen: Awesome group.

Eric A Longenhagen: Here are the preseason farm rankings before the draft and graduations: Here are the preseason rankings: Farm System Rankings | FanGraphs Baseball

Brendan Gawlowski: Red Sox a sneaky positive here too

Eric A Longenhagen: And here are the real time rankings: Farm System Rankings | FanGraphs Baseball

Brendan Gawlowski: If you think back to March

Brendan Gawlowski: Their list ran midseason and they had a bunch of jumpers

Brendan Gawlowski: Giants have had a good year. Shining case of the value of having a good pro scouting department, they crushed the deadline last year.

Eric A Longenhagen: Rays having the top season regardless of whether they had the no. 2 pick is kinda nuts.

Eric A Longenhagen: Like remove Emerson and they’re still no. 1

Maurice Lepouttre: What are you looking for ROS from Yolfran? Contact looks good, I assume you’re looking for a little more power?

Brendan Gawlowski: It’s not going to come overnight. In the same way that Nimmala grew into the power year over year last winter, I’m anticipating Castillo will get stronger too. It might not even be next year.

doughboy: Surprised Tigers are still that high. Any under radar/ new guys keeping system afloat?

Eric A Longenhagen: All those 40+ hitters from last year’s draft and this year’s Intl class. They had a nice draft, too. The kid from AZ throws 100 and was kept pretty well hidden. Good scouting org.

tdmoc: what’s the mechanical issue with firing from a dead stop? is it that it demands the batter to “do everything” in an instant? like the other end of a horse shoe with a noisy swing?

Brendan Gawlowski: In a similar way to how fielders are rangier when they do a little hop before the pitch than if they’re flat footed, or that goalies are more explosive on penalty kicks when they get on the balls of their feet before they leap, you’re just a more dynamic mover if you’re already doing something.

higginsford: How scary is Andrew Fischer‘s contact data? I keep seeing hype for him from fans but like yeesh mid 60s contact rate is scary, even with the power

Eric A Longenhagen: The new Spencer Jones. Got famous during the WBC, I think some of the “top 3B prospect in baseball” talk from before the season was more due to the lack of other guys at the position than Fischer’s own ability. It still seemingly convinced a large portion of the scouting-curious online contingent that he’s great. He has a 62% contact rate as of the all star break. Here is a list of 2026 qualified big leaguers with a contact rate that low:

Reece Rabin: Does Hayden Alvarez have top 10 helium? Probably too much swing and miss right now but all the other tools could be there…

Brendan Gawlowski: He kept rising and rising. I think he has that kind of ceiling, but we need to see him grow into more power without sacrificing the CF future to do that.

cc007: Anything on Luke Sinnard?

Brendan Gawlowski: Rehabbing in the FCL. Good stuff, we like him, another one where we want to see how it looks as the workload builds.

Mr. Redlegs: What’s going on with the Reds development/scouting to only have Duno on this list? Obviously Burns was a quick graduate, but for how high they’ve drafted to only have 1 name on the list is incredibly disappointing. (Lux for Sirota is gonna sting for a while)

Eric A Longenhagen: They’ve drafted guys with hit tool risk who it turns out can’t hit. Or at least aren’t hitting enough right now for us to love them. Some of it is the Reds have had a bummer season and we care less about updating their player ranking with fervor since it has less real-world relevance. It does feel weird for some people to have quickly forgotten Tyson Lewis‘ Complex performance who want to take Steele Hall’s at face value.

cc007: Twins sell high on Larnach and call up Jenkins in August?

Eric A Longenhagen: They are a team that I think can “sell” and still be better after the deadline.

Eric A Longenhagen: Culpepper, too. Bring him up, you can win the division guys.

Jay: Did Jimmy Crooks fall off of the list or did he graduate? I’m curious how you feel about his season so far. He put up some massive numbers in AAA but with an elevated K-rate. In the majors he’s struggled a bit but has been hitting well in July. Defense has been a bit shaky.

Eric A Longenhagen: Graduated

cc007: long shot here – but found some data on Carlos Mateo of Pirates, fastball sitting 100 with 19 IVB … How you do rank someone like that ?

Brendan Gawlowski: HM, he’s thrown strikes for 15 minutes

Eric A Longenhagen: Oh, I need to push the graduate update. Hold please.

Eric A Longenhagen: Stragglers should be on there in the next few minutes, my bad.

jb1205: Regarding the decline and fall of the NY Metropolitan farm system: am I wrong in hoping that some of these guys who have dropped are salvageable? Like, Wenninger’s actual ERA is not terrible; his FIP looks bad because of walk numbers, but could we say part of that is his first time using AAA balls? Tong still has a strong K rate even though his HR/FB is 21%. Reimer still seems to have OK plate discipline and some power, as does Suero. If some of these guys bounce back and guys like Pena and Asigen keep hitting, they could make it back to the middle of the pack by next year, right?

Brendan Gawlowski: Just because someone drops off the 100 doesn’t mean that they’re bad, or can’t help

Brendan Gawlowski: Or even that they can’t develop into Role 50 big leaguers

Brendan Gawlowski: In all three cases, there’s still a pretty clear path to value

Brendan Gawlowski: For all players, particularly those on either side of the back of the 100, there are usually a couple questions we’re monitoring

Brendan Gawlowski: With Reimer, it was ‘can he hit pitches outside his wheelhouse?’ With Wenninger, it was ‘can he hold the new velo and still throw strikes at a good clip?’ With Tong, the e-w breaking ball was something to monitor.

Brendan Gawlowski: Their performance has trended away from “yes” in all three cases

Eric A Longenhagen: I broke something else on the grad tab that i need to fix

Brendan Gawlowski: If you’re looking for paths forward on those three, start there. But they could all be contributors in a narrower capacity than ‘everyday big leaguer/no. 4’ even without a ton of improvement.

Eric A Longenhagen: Ok sorry about that

Charles Bengal Tiger: Eric, what sort of sun hat do you wear in Arizona?

Eric A Longenhagen: I tend to jsut wear baseball caps because I can’t settle on any other shape

Eric A Longenhagen: I have an IronPigs hat, and Panthers and Cardinals that rotate

Eric A Longenhagen: Okay, time for us to split

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ll be back to chatting at the normal time next Friday

Brendan Gawlowski: Thanks all for hanging out.