Scouting Debutante Pirate, Tyler Glasnow

When I first lay eyes on a prospect, especially one who has a unique physical build, I search my mind’s eye for precedent. Making a “body comp” is a somewhat outdated way for scouts to communicate and describe a player’s physicality to a person who has never seen that player. The advent of the internet has made this kind of communication obsolete (why bother telling you that I think Jeff Hoffman is built like Jamal Crawford when I can just show you a video of Hoffman pitching and you can see it for yourself?) and now I mostly make body comps as an personal exercise to help project a player’s physical trajectory a little more accurately.

When I first saw Tyler Glasnow, who is an ectomorphic 6-foot-8, I wracked my brain trying to find a similarly built pitcher before I gave up and moved on to small forwards. Still, I came up empty, and I ended up writing “construction crane” and “pteranodon” in my notes. Glasnow has long legs, a small torso and relatively short arms for someone his size. I’ve seen only on other pitcher (White Sox righty Alec Hansen) whose physique closely resembles his. His unique physical makeup is the foundation upon which one of baseball’s most bizarre prospects has been built and influences his entire repertoire.

The Pirates selected Glasnow in the 2011 draft’s fifth round. He was nothing but projection at that point, possessing a below-average fastball and some nascent feel for what would become one of minor-league baseball’s best curveballs, but little else. He spurned a commitment to the University of Portland (Glasnow’s high school is just north of Los Angeles and yet none of the big SoCal schools were on him) and signed for $600,000, roughly the slot value for pick #100 in this year’s draft.

His stuff exploded in 2013 and Glasnow began laying waste to minor-league hitters. He now has 634 strikeouts in just under 500 career pro innings but has also walked 230 batters in that span. Pitchers with huge, lanky frames like Glasnow’s usually take longer to develop acceptable starter’s control. Additionally, this high-octane iteration of Glasnow’s stuff is only a few seasons old; part of the reason that Glasnow has strike-throwing issues is because his stuff is sometimes too explosive to harness.

Glasnow turns 23 in August, and while I’m more hesitant than others to absolve him of his strike-throwing sins and anoint him a sure-fire starting pitcher, there are lots of objective reasons to be optimistic about Glasnow’s command projection. He’s athletic and quick-footed for his size, featuring an efficient, full-bodied delivery that makes good use of his lower half and flexibility — while also creating shocking arm acceleration from such a tall pitcher. He doesn’t repeat his mechanics but the delivery isn’t a stiff, army, unathletic mess that’s inherently difficult to repeat. It’s pretty, and most scouts are optimistic that Glasnow will one day tighten things up and throw enough strikes to start.

Glasnow’s fastball sits 93-96 mph and will touch 98 or 99 for short spurts. Scarily, Glasnow still has some physical projection left and it’s possible there’s more velocity coming. The heater will feature natural cut at times, especially when Glasnow is trying to locate it to his glove side. His changeup, which he’s begun throwing to right-handed hitters and early in counts, sits 87-89 and will touch 91. It’s a fringe-average pitch right now that serves to keep hitters off his fastball rather than garner swings and misses. Before he began using his changeup more heavily, hitters would sit on Glasnow’s fastball and react to his curveball (which is about 15 mph slower than his fastball), hoping to foul the latter off if they recognized it out of his hand. While it only projects to average and doesn’t hold a candle to his fastball or curveball as far as pure stuff is concerned, I think more frequent use of the changeup is not only an important part of Glasnow’s long-term development but could be the linchpin of his initial success.

It doesn’t take a well-trained pair of eyes to recognize how good Glasnow’s curveball is. It has tremendous depth and bite, an easy plus pitch on the 20-80 scale that flashes a grade above that. Glasnow doesn’t yet regularly throw it for strikes and is more comfortable burying it in the dirt for swings and misses. There will be times when he releases the curveball too late. When he does, it clearly doesn’t look like a strike out of his hand and hitters can relax and have a nice, easy take while Glasnow’s catcher has to scramble to block one of the more hellacious pitches in baseball. One scout posited to me that, because of this, some of Glasnow’s minor-league catchers have been more hesitant to call for a curveball with runners on base than big-league backstops will be.

I anticipate Glasnow to have some trouble holding runners. I’ve timed him from the stretch anywhere between the mid-1.5s to 1.8 seconds (average is 1.3 to 1.4) and he hasn’t yet learned how to vary his delivery timing effectively. Studious base-stealers could have a field day against him, as long as they’re willing to put up with Glasnow’s constant pickoff throws to first base, which are respectable if not fear-inducing.

I like Glasnow but think there are aspects of his game right now that are raw (he’s had seven starts this year in which he’s allowed four or more walks) and will be exposed by major-league opposition. That said, I’m also fairly confident in his ability to make adjustments and am even more optimistic about the future of his stuff (and not just in the aforementioned fastball and changeup development, but I think Glasnow might one day have one hell of a cutter). I think there’s a good chance he struggles early on because of the control issues, the immaturity of the repertoire and his issues with holding runners. Scouting reports (70 fastball, 60 curveball, future average changeup and fringe-average control) dictate No. 3 starter projection (that’s a 60 on the scale), albeit with more volatility and risk associated with that profile than is usual for a young arm that’s already had success at Triple-A. I think, because of how explosive Glasnow’s stuff can be, it’s reasonable to hope for more than that while simultaneously bracing yourself for less.