Steven Souza’s March to the Record Books
When Adam Dunn posted his 190th strikeout in 2004, he broke a record originally set by Bobby Bonds over 30 years earlier, in 1970. While it took some time for Bonds’ mark to be surpassed, it’s become a common occurrence in the meantime. Indeed, including that one produced by Dunn, there have now been 18 player seasons that have met or exceeded Bonds’ previous high.
While Bonds’ strikeout distinction has been exceeded on a number of occasions, there’s another one that remains untouched. Since Pete Incaviglia’s 1986 season, his mark of 185 strikeouts has endured as the record for rookies. Not a single rookie has come within even 10 strikeouts of Incaviglia’s record. Tampa Bay outfielder Steven Souza looks poised to make a run at the record this season, however.
Souza has followed an interesting track to the majors, spending eight years in the Washington Nationals’ minor-league system before getting a shot as a full-time starter with the Rays this season. Souza, a part of the trade that sent Wil Myers to the San Diego Padres, hit very well in the minor leagues over the last few years. As Carson Cistulli noted after the trade, through no fault of his own, Souza found himself behind Jayson Werth, Bryce Harper, and Denard Span making it difficult to receive a promotion to the big leagues. In Chris Mitchell’s profile of Souza, he reinforced the same point, writing:
Yes, Souza has been old for his level for years now, but the “old for his league” caveat means less and less the closer a hitter gets to the majors. And when a hitter performs like Souza did in Triple-A, you absolutely have to take notice. More often than not, hitters who rake in Triple-A turn into serviceable big leaguers, regardless of how old they are.
The Rays saw this logjam and pounced, providing the team with a player to replace the departed Myers while also securing other players in the deal as well. Despite Souza’s age relative to other prospects, Kiley McDaniel rated him the 52nd best prospect in Major League Baseball heading into the season. For the Rays, the move seems to have worked out in the early going.
Wil Myers: .291/.340/.493, 134 wRC+ Steven Souza: .233/.333/.475, 133 wRC+
— Jonah Keri (@jonahkeri) May 31, 2015
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Souza has hit very well for the Rays and he has paired his good production with incredibly high strikeout numbers. Souza has only five starts in which he has not struck out this season. A look at the current strikeout rate leaders shows that most of the players at the top, like Souza, do have good overall production.
| Name | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG | wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steven Souza | 37.2 | 0.232 | 0.326 | 0.463 | 128 |
| Chris Davis | 35.4 | 0.227 | 0.313 | 0.500 | 123 |
| Chris Carter | 35.2 | 0.194 | 0.302 | 0.359 | 89 |
| Jorge Soler | 32.2 | 0.265 | 0.322 | 0.402 | 96 |
| Giancarlo Stanton | 31.4 | 0.228 | 0.318 | 0.508 | 120 |
| Kris Bryant | 30.2 | 0.280 | 0.396 | 0.480 | 143 |
| Adam LaRoche | 29.6 | 0.236 | 0.365 | 0.395 | 117 |
| Joc Pederson | 29.6 | 0.254 | 0.380 | 0.550 | 156 |
| Brett Lawrie | 28.6 | 0.266 | 0.294 | 0.372 | 87 |
| George Springer | 28.4 | 0.224 | 0.350 | 0.412 | 118 |
In order to rack up a lot of strikeouts, a player needs to have other aspects of his game that can compensate for producing so many outs without getting the ball in play. Souza has used his power, speed, and patience at the plate to make himself a positive contributor. Souza has seven steals, and has been worth about two runs above average on the basepaths this season. We don’t have enough innings to conclude much from his UZR in the outfield, but Souza should be able to use his speed to make more plays like this one:
While Souza does strike out a lot, he has also drawn a lot of walks. His 11.7% walk rate is 11th in the American League and consistent with his high walk rates in the minors. He does not chase a lot of pitches out of the zone, although when he does, he tends not to make contact. Consider: his 42% contact rate on pitches out of the zone is worst in the majors. Despite seeing a first-pitch strike nearly 70% of the time, Souza has seen more than four pitches per plate appearances, among the most in the majors. Souza has a low batting average due to the strikeouts, but his walks keep his on-base average afloat.
While speed and patience are part of Souza’s game, his power takes him from an average offensive player to an above-average one. With ten homers, Souza’s .232 ISO is 13th in the AL and, when he hits the ball, he hits it hard. Only 17 players this season have hit more than five batted balls with an exit velocity of 110 mph or greater, per Baseball Savant. Souza has eight such hits and the only players ahead of him on the leaderboard (Giancarlo Stanton, Hanley Ramirez, Mike Trout, Carlos Gonzalez, Josh Donaldson, Jorge Soler, Jose Abreu, and Miguel Cabrera) are not exactly lightweights. This is one such shot:
That same swing produces violent results even when he misses.
About a month ago, I took a look at the leaders in the three true outcomes when discussing the play of Joc Pederson. Souza appeared on the list at that time, but has shot to the top of the leaderboard.
| TTO% | |
|---|---|
| Steven Souza | 54.3% |
| Joc Pederson | 52.4% |
| Chris Carter | 52.3% |
| Bryce Harper | 52.2% |
| Chris Davis | 52.0% |
| Giancarlo Stanton | 49.8% |
| Kris Bryant | 48.9% |
| Adam LaRoche | 48.7% |
| George Springer | 48.3% |
| Paul Goldschmidt | 43.7% |
If Souza were to continue at his current pace, he would need only 600 plate appearances to tie the all-time single-season strikeout record and only 500 to break Pete Incaviglia’s rookie record. He’s not likely to continue at his current pace, however. The highest strikeout rate in the last decade belongs to Chris Carter in 2013, and even he “only” struck out in 36.2% of his plate appearances. Our Depth Chart Projections have Souza getting over 400 more at bats the rest of the way and striking out around 30% of the time, resulting in 199 strikeouts on the season. If he strikes out in 30% of his plate appearances moving forward, he will need just 387 plate appearances to break Incaviglia’s rookie record.
The strikeout record is likely not one Souza will cherish, but if he does reach it, that means he is doing something right. Souza will need good health and he will have to hit, walk, and run well enough to be worthy of the plate appearances necessary to break the record. Pete Incaviglia is not the worst company to have in the record books, but if Souza is able to reach both 20 home runs and 20 steals, his company would improve considerably. The only rookie to reach both of those numbers in the last five years? Mike Trout.
Craig Edwards can be found on twitter @craigjedwards.
Yeah, but what about Sousa’s marches in the recording books?
I’m particularly partial to President Garfield’s Inauguration March (1881.)
Yah, I heard that one was #1 with a bullet that year.
TOO SOON
Is it just me, or are Chris Davis and Giancarlo Stanton conspiring to achieve the exact same batting line this year?
It’s irresponsible to write an article about strikeouts and not include Mike Zunino.
But it’s an article about someone doing things well enough to overcome strikeouts, Zunino doesn’t really qualify
He’s sitting pretty at 38.1% on the year, while still getting regular ABs. He seems like a legitimate threat to take the title from Carter.
I think the difference is Souza can keep getting the regular AB’s even if the strikeout rate holds. If Zunino keeps up his current line I can’t imagine he keeps getting run out every day, but I guess if the Mariners fall out of the race they may just run with him and hope he turns it around
If Zunino stays at that K rate, he would need 487 PA’s to reach Incaviglia’s record. Right now, he’s on pace to get 492, so it’s definitely possible. But he’s likely to get less playing time the rest of the season, not really because of his hitting, but because the M’s picked up a legitimate backup catcher (Welington Castillo) to give him more rest days. Castillo has already caught in 4 of the 11 games since he joined the M’s. Zunino looks likely to finish the season with less than 450 PA’s, so I’d be surprised if he threatens the rookie record.
Its “irresponsible”?
Shut the hell up.
Interesting how young that TTO leaderboard is. Adam Laroche’s age stands out like a sore thumb.
Good stuff, this is what power looks like for a small-market team. You don’t get the good without the bad. So many of his strikeouts seemingly come on pitches on the outer half that he’s taking, and quite often it’s a pitch that is off the plate or never even crossed the plate like a back door breaking ball. It’s hard to fault him on one hand, but on the other if he could take that pitch over the second baseman and take his single like so many have had to learn to do out of necessity it might tighten up the called zone while similarly increasing his batting average.
I don’t know if he has that ability, but it would go a long way to unlocking even more of his game. As is, he has been a very valuable contributor and arguably the best power bat on the team. For further reading you should really check on Ian Malinowski’s look: http://www.draysbay.com/2015/5/13/8593609/tampa-bay-rays-steven-souza-jr-strikeouts-pitchfx
I don’t see that 34% HR/FB rate staying put, nor do I see a .333 BABIP from a guy with a very high pull% who pulls virtually all of his grounders and only hits for power to the pull side. Blengino had a great article about the consequences of pulling, and Souza seems to fit that profile easily.
Let’s wait a bit until we call this the sustainable profile of a positive contributor.
I think Souza risk falling into the Stubbs/B.J. Upton profile, with less speed and defense.
I know he was mentioned, but it wasn’t pointed out that “the Joc” is on pace before today for 196k and thou sousa is rackin em up at a quicker pace, JP will almost certainly have more ABs giving him ample opportunity to match him.