Sunday Notes: Tasty Tidbits From the Cutting-Room Floor
Three interviews — two with pitchers, another with a hitter — were published here at FanGraphs over the past week. All were the result of lengthy conversations, and in each case, worthwhile snippets landed on the cutting-room floor. This week’s column will lead with those leftovers, which come courtesy of Drew Rasmussen, Cole Sulser, and Pete Alonso.
We’ll start with Rasmussen, who addressed his ability to command his offerings, particularly his four-seam/two-seam/cutter combination.
“Command is kind of a sliding scale,” said the Tampa Bay Rays right-hander, whose 4.3% walked rate ranks lowest among qualified hurlers. “Some days it’s really good and some days it’s not so good. The job is to figure out what you have as quickly as possible. On days when my command is really good… I would say that is situation-driven. If I need a ball on the ground, I can throw it with a little more tail and a little less carry. If I’m just trying to steal strike one, maybe I don’t want the [movement] profile to be as big; that way it has a better chance of staying in the zone.
“Conversely, on days that I’m not overly confident with my command, I simplify to the absolute max,” he continued. “We’re going to try to just throw the same one over and over again. Then, hopefully at some point over the course of the outing, something clicks and I start to get more and more confident, and comfortable, with the command I have that day.”
Along with his Lilliputian walk rate, Rasmussen boast a 3.28 ERA, a 3.29 FIP, and a 24.5% strikeout rate. He has won eight of his 13 decisions.
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Left over from Sulser was his addressing of the same general subject. I asked the Rays righty which characteristics most suggest that a pitching prospect will, or won’t, continue to succeed as he climbs the proverbial ladder.
“The biggest one would be command,” opined Sulser, who much like Rasmussen profiles as a future coach or coordinator. “First-pitch percentage and how often they’re getting ahead in counts. At the lower levels, guys with really good stuff can sometimes fall behind and still end up being good enough to get back in counts and beat the hitters. So, one of the best directories would be an ability to maintain count control. If a pitcher isn’t doing that, it is hard to predict that he is going to be successful at a higher level.
“When it comes to other things, I would say that swing-and-miss rates are always a big correlation,” he added. “If you’re producing swing-and-miss, that’s more likely to carry over. Weak contact at the lower levels can translate, but sometimes that weak contact at the lower levels turns into hard contact at the upper levels.”
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Last but not least is Alonso, who sat down for the 125th installment of my Talks Hitting series. The Baltimore Orioles first baseman said the following when I asked if he had any final thoughts on his craft:
“Everyone wants slug. Everyone wants fixed outcomes, like the homers and the walks. But there is also an art, a lost art, of getting a pitcher out of a game by just fouling off pitches. I think there is a power in an offense, and in an individual player, that can spoil the nasty pitches. You can get the starter out by the fifth inning or earlier by doing that, collectively. That’s not focused on enough.”
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RANDOM HITTER-PITCHER MATCHUPS
Sherry Magee went 7 for 10 against Deacon Phillippe.
Maurice Archdeacon went 8 for 15 against Eddie Rommel.
George Archie went 5 for 11 against Bobo Newsom.
Snuffy Stirnweiss went 1 for 5 against Jug Thesenga.
Maurice Van Robays went 8 for 15 against Clyde Shoun.
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Jordan Walker holds a big-league record that he will inevitably soon relinquish. The St. Louis Cardinals outfielder has 49 career home runs, and they have come off of 49 different pitchers. According to Stathead’s Katie Sharp, MLB annals include no other hitter to have gone deep more times without victimizing a hurler more than once.
The next highest totals belong to Keith Lockhart, whose 44 career home runs came against 44 different pitchers, and Dave Magadan, whose 42 dingers came against 42 different pitchers. As of Friday there are 48 players who have homered 30 or more times without doing so against the same pitcher more than once. Several are still active, so that number — or at least the names — will change over the final months of the season.
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A quiz:
Six pitchers have won 20 or more games in a single season for the Toronto Blue Jays. Which of them was the first to do so?
The answer can be found below.
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NEWS NOTES
A reminder that this year’s national SABR convention gets underway in downtown Cleveland this coming Wednesday evening and runs through Saturday. As noted here previously, the featured speakers include an array of former Cleveland players, as well as executives, analysts, historians, and more. Information can be found here.
Eric Young Sr. has been named manager of the Women’s Pro Baseball League’s Los Angeles Queens. The 59-year-old, longtime MLB infielder/outfielder, who was featured here at FanGraphs last October, had been coaching for the Los Angeles Angels.
Scott Brown, a right-hander whose MLB career comprised 10 games for the Cincinnati Reds in 1981, died on July 21 at age 69. The DeQuincy, Louisiana native allowed four runs over 13 innings, with his lone decision — a win — coming in his big-league debut. He was traded to the Kansas City Royals in exchange for Clint Hurdle later that same year.
Duane Ward, a right-handed reliever who played for the Toronto Blue Jays (and briefly the Atlanta Braves) from 1986-1995, died last weekend at age 62. A key contributor to back-to-back World Series titles, Ward finished his career with 121 regular season saves — 45 of them in 1993 — and five in the postseason. He was the winning pitcher in the “Touch ’em all, Joe” game that will forever resonate in Blue Jays lore.
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The answer to the quiz is Jack Morris, who went 21-6 for the Blue Jays in 1992. Pat Hentgen, who went 20-10 in 1996, was the second to do so.
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The Red Sox won their 14th consecutive game on Monday by edging the Baltimore Orioles 6-5 in a back-and-forth thriller. The O’s had been hot as well; they came into Boston on the heels of seven straight wins. Each of the AL East rivals was showing signs that October baseball might not be as far-fetched as it had seemed mere weeks before.
Prior to Monday’s series-opening contest, Craig Albernaz was asked about the respective clubs’ recent reversal of fortune.
“The baseball season is always trying to trick us to overreact,” the Orioles manager astutely replied. “It’s a long season. It’s July 20th right now. This is a big series for a July 20 matchup, but there are also still a couple months left in the season. The Red Sox are playing great baseball right now — they’ve won 13 straight — but we’re playing some good ball as well. Ultimately, for us, it’s the same thing we’ve been saying since spring training: it’s a day-one mentality of showing up… and trying to win the game.”
Overreact? Baseball fans? You don’t say.
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FOREIGN AFFAIRS
Yugo Maeda has made 10 starts for the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks and is 7-0 with a 1.55 ERA and a 3.23 FIP over 58 innings. The 20-year-old southpaw was selected in the first round of the 2023 NPB draft out of an Osaka high school.
Andre Jackson is 6-6 with a 3.43 ERA and a 3.48 FIP over 97 innings with the Chiba Lotte Marines. The 30-year-old right-hander is in his third NPB season after making 26 appearances while pitching for the Los Angeles Dodgers and Pittsburgh Pirates across the 2021-2023 campaigns.
Been Gwak has fanned 120 batters and allowed just 93 hits and 29 walks over 103 innings for the KBO’s Doosan Bears. A member of Team Korea in the WBC, the 27-year-old right-hander is 8-4 with a 2.80 ERA and a 3.14 FIP on the season.
Noah Skirrow is 9-3 with a 3.67 ERA over 68-and-two thirds innings for the Mexican League’s Toros de Tijuana. A member of team Canada in this year’s WBC, the 27-year-old right-hander from Cambridge, Ontario played in the Philadelphia Phillies system from 2021-2024.
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A random obscure former player snapshot:
MLB history includes nearly five dozen Canadian-born players who debuted prior to the modern era (1901). Notable among them is Tip O’Neill, an outfielder from Springfield, Ontario who suited up for four teams, primarily the American Association’s St. Louis Browns, from 1883-1892. Known as “The Woodstock Wonder,” O’Neill was at his best in 1887 when he slashed .435/.490/.691 with 52 doubles, 19 triples, and 14 home runs. He also toed the rubber. In 1884, he went 11-4 with a 2.68 ERA over 141 innings. The Tip O’Neill Award is given annually by the Canadian Baseball Hall of Fame to a Canada native “judged to have excelled in individual achievement and team contribution while adhering to the highest ideals of the game of baseball.”
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The Boston Red Sox selected Jace Mataczynski in the third round of this year’s draft, and while the 18-year-old shortstop’s upside is real, so too is the degree of raw he’s bringing to pro ball. A native of Hudson, Wisconsin, Mataczynski was described in Eric Longenhagen and Brendan Gawlowski’s post-draft recap as “tooled up” yet with a likely need of swing changes. I’ve since had an opportunity to ask the youngster about the latter.
“It’s definitely on the cruder side of things,” Mataczynski said of his swing. “I didn’t have a hitting coach growing up, so I’m kind of raw. I’ve not really been taught how to hit; I kind of taught myself. A lot of people say my swing is kind of unorthodox, but I think it works. But yeah, I’m pretty raw in that aspect of my game.”
I asked the 6-foot-4 infielder if he could elaborate on unorthodox.
“I’ve had a couple of different stances for my swing,” replied Mataczynski, whom the Red Sox enticed to forgo a commitment to Auburn University with an over-slot bonus. “So, one thing is just finding consistency, taking one swing and honing in on it, trying to perfect it.”
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FARM NOTES
On Wednesday, the Gwinnett Stripers (Triple-A, Braves) recorded a dozen hits while defeating the Iowa Cubs 7-5. Ronald Acuña Jr., Andrew McCutchen, and Carlos Santana — a trio that combined for 5,124 big-league hits, including 861 home runs — all contributed knocks.
The New Hampshire Fisher Cats (Double-A, Blue Jays) were swept in a double-header on Thursday, losing 9-3 and 8-3 to the Somerset Patriots (Yankees). Patrick Winkel, a 26-year-old backup catcher, pitched a one-two-three inning for the Fisher Cats in both ends of the twin bill.
Cristian Arguelles slashed .402/.478/.671 with nine home runs and a 174 wRC+ over 255 plate appearances in the just-completed Arizona Complex League. A native of Coro, Venezuela, the 19-year-old outfielder is No. 29 in our Colorado Rockies prospect rankings with a 35 FV.
Luke Pelzer is slashing .348/.410/.505 with four home runs and a 137 wRC+ in 313 plate appearances between High-A Quad Cities and Double-A Northwest Arkansas (just four PAs). The 23-year-old unranked outfielder from Menominee Falls, Wisconsin was selected in the 17th round of last year’s draft by the Kansas City Royals out of the University of Illinois at Chicago.
Peyton Graham has 53 steals in 56 attempts, and is slashing .303/.428/.438 with five home runs and a 140 wRC+ over 342 plate appearances for Double-A Erie. The 25-year-old middle infielder, and occasional outfielder, is an honorable mention on our Detroit Tigers Top Prospects list.
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Ryan Wideman is having a solid first full professional season. Drafted 99th overall last year by the San Diego Padres out of Western Kentucky University, the 22-year-old outfielder is slashing .311/.377/.456 with six home runs and a 112 wRC+ in 404 plate appearances between Low-A Lake Elsinore and High-A Fort Wayne. Fleet of foot, he also has 54 stolen bases in 71 attempts.
Currently ranked 14th in the Padres system was a 40 FV, Wideman was described by Brendan Gawlowski as “short to the ball” and “more of a line drive hitter than a power threat.” I asked the right-handed swinger if he agrees with that general assessment.
“Yeah. I didn’t really grow up hitting home runs as a young baseball player,” said Wideman, who was born in Spain and raised in Marietta, Georgia. “I kind of grew up being more of a singles-and-doubles hitter, and I’m kind of just trying to keep doing that while adding a little bit more power. I have the ability to hit doubles and triples. Really, I’m just working on all aspects of my game.”
Gawlowski having cited both his lack of present plus power and “good wheels,” I told Wideman that sounds like his game is mostly built around speed. He didn’t agree.
“No, I wouldn’t say that,” the confident youngster replied. “I’ve hit for average my whole life, and I’m a guy who can hit for some power as well. I would say that I have all five tools, for sure.”
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A last-minute addition to the column, which I’m writing over my first cup of coffee:
Waking up to the news that the Red Sox have traded 24-year-old left-hander Connelly Early to the Washington Nationals in exchange for 25-year-old corner infielder Curtis Mead (presumably a DH with his new club, as Boston has an All-Star stationed at first base and a likely Gold Glove-winner at the hot corner) definitely raised my eyebrows. Time doesn’t allow for an actual analysis of the trade — the column needs to go up — but I will share part of what I wrote in late March when we published Our Bold Predictions for the 2026 Season.
“According my crystal ball, Early will do more than simply establish himself this season; he will outperform all the other members of the Red Sox rotation with the exception of Crochet. Featuring an expansive repertoire that he augments with a combination of guile and steely-eyed calm, Early is a pitcher’s pitcher.”
My bold prediction obviously didn’t come to fruition. Crochet has spend most of the season on the injured list, and a handful of other Red Sox hurlers have been better. Even so, the young southpaw has been solid. Currently poised to return from a stint on the IL due to elbow inflammation, Early has made 17 starts and gone 7-5 with a 3.44 ERA over 91-and-two-thirds innings (only Sonny Gray has tossed more frames).
Assuming that Early’s elbow is healthy, the Nationals pitching staff just got a lot better.
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LINKS YOU’LL LIKE
At The Guardian, Frederic J. Frommer wrote about Ted Williams, Satchel Paige, and the 60-years-ago fight to induct Negro Leaguers into the Hall of Fame.
At Forbes, Barry Bloom wrote about how Carlos Beltrán overcame a sign-stealing stigma to make the Hall of Fame.
The Washington Nationals are calling (some) pitches from the dugout. Spencer Nusbaum has the story at The Athletic.
Also at The Athletic, C. Trent Rosecrans wrote about how Joey Votto is nervously prepping for his primetime debut behind the mic, which is slated for this evening’s Sunday Night Baseball pregame show.
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RANDOM FACTS AND STATS
Yordan Alvarez leads the American League in all three Triple Crown categories. The Houston Astros slugger also leads MLB hitters with 17 intentional walks.
Austin Hedges came into the season with a .191 batting average and a 54 wRC+ for his career. The defensive-minded backstop currently boasts a .287 batting average and 119 wRC+ over 156 plate appearances.
Tarik Skubal has 999 career strikeouts, all of them with the Detroit Tigers. A total of 16 pitchers have logged 1,000 or more strikeouts while wearing a Tiger uniform. Mickey Lolich (2,679) and Justin Verlander (2,374) top the list.
Through Thursday, Nolan Arenado had played in 1,884 games and recorded 2,004 hits, including 367 home runs. Johnny Mize played in 1,884 games and recorded 2011 hits, including 359 home runs.
Lou Whitaker had 2,369 hits, a 118 wRC+, and 68.1 WAR. A five-time All-Star, he was awarded four Silver Sluggers and three Gold Gloves. Jeff Kent had 2,461 hits, a 123 wRC+, and 56.0 WAR. A five-time All-Star, he was awarded four Silver Sluggers (and no Gold Gloves).
Hall of Fame right-hander Catfish Hunter pitched in 500 games and went 224-186 with a 104 ERA+ and 37.2 WAR. Tim Hudson pitched in 482 games and went 222-133 with a 120 ERA+ and 49.0 WAR.
Johnny Bench took Steve Carlton deep in three consecutive at-bats on today’s date in 1970. The Hall of Fame catcher went 4-for-5 with seven RBIs as the Cincinnati Reds outscored the St. Louis Cardinals 12-5.
On today’s date in 1942, Chicago Cubs catcher Clyde McCullough hit three solo home runs off of Tommy Hughes in a 4-3 road loss to the Philadelphia Phillies. Pinky May plated Danny Litwhiler with a walk-off single.
The Detroit Tigers and New York Yankees split a double-header on today’s date in 1928. The pinstripers won the opener 12-1 courtesy of an 11-run 12th inning, and the tabbies captured the nightcap by a count of 13-10. New York’s Bob Meusel hit for the cycle in the first game. Detroit’s Harry Heilmann had a triple, a grand slam, and eight RBIs in the second.
Players born on today’s date include John Knox, an infielder who batted .274 in an MLB career that comprised 124 games for the Detroit Tigers from 1972-1975. An eighth-round pick in the 1970 draft out of Bowling Green University, Knox was the highest of that year’s Tigers selections to reach the majors.
Also born on today’s date was Ellis Kinder, a right-hander who had stellar seasons as both a starter and as a reliever while playing for three teams — primarily the Boston Red Sox — from 1946-1957. In 1949, Kinder went 23-6 with a 3.36 ERA over 252 innings. In 1951, he went 11-2 with a 2.55 ERA while leading the junior circuits in appearances (63) and saves (16). In 1953, he went 10-6 with a 1.85 ERA while again leading in appearances (69) and saves (27).
David Laurila grew up in Michigan's Upper Peninsula and now writes about baseball from his home in Cambridge, Mass. He authored the Prospectus Q&A series at Baseball Prospectus from December 2006-May 2011 before being claimed off waivers by FanGraphs. He can be followed on Twitter @DavidLaurilaQA.
Definitely did not expect to see breaking news in the Sunday Notes column. This is what happens when I check FG before MLBTR.
Totally whiffed on the quiz. I went with Jim Clancy … next choice would have been Dave Stieb. Neither ever got to 20.
I was pretty sure Stieb never got to 20. Wasn’t sure about Clancy but figured if Stieb didn’t, then he didn’t either.
Instead, I went with Jimmy Key. Who also never made it to 20…
I knew Stieb,Key and Clancy never 20 games in a season for the Blue Jays, I guessed Pat Hentgen, incorrectly.
I figured Stieb was too easy and went with Jim Clancy as well. I never would have guessed it took until the early 90s and, even if I had, would have gone with Jimmy Key or Juan Guzman before Jack Morris.
Stieb was one of my favorite pitchers from the 1980s and I remembered (or thought I remembered) that he never won 20 games, as good as he was. I also guessed Clancy because I thought someone probably did it before the 1990s. The Mize/Arenado thing is interesting, although Arenado has 702 more career at-bats than Mize
through Saturday’s games.
I guessed Stieb because I didn’t think it would be someone in the 90s. I also thought about Hentgen and Jimmy Key (who also didn’t win 20).
Stieb seemed so obvious I was sure it had to be someone else. Couldn’t think of anyone else so went with him. Can’t believe he topped out at 18.
I knew Stieb never won 20 cuz he typically got bad run support.
I could only think of 4 of the 6- Clemens, Hentgen, Halladay & Morris, though I wasn’t 100% sure if he won 20 with Toronto or Minnesota, I just knew he did it once after leaving Detroit.
With that in mind, ended up going with Hentgen as I knew he was before Clemens.
In my defense (and yours), if Dave Stieb had ever won 20, he would have been the answer.
Quiz thoughts:
Jack Morris was my first thought. But I had a hard time time believing the first 20 game winner would have come that late. I went with Dave Stieb. He had a couple 17 win seasons in the early 1980s and an 18 win season in 1990. Those were the closest until Morris.
I got Morris. I thought you were right but since I was born in the 80s my fandom really starts around 1990 so I couldn’t think of anyone specific and decided that maybe it was Morris during the World Series runs and that was right. A bit of luck in not coming up with a good, earlier name.
A bonus quiz that I would never have gotten is who the last Blue Jay to win 20 games was. Hint: it was in the 2010s.
LOL, I knew that it must not have been the obvious name that I was thinking and yup, I would never have guessed that last guy.
Ditto. I had to look it up & I forgot about this guy..though I did see him pitch for Toronto in Rogers vs NYY..& saw Aaron Judge hit a 450 foot bomb off him..which is maybe why I didn’t consider him!
These 20-game winner questions feel more antiquated every year. From 2021-2025 we have averaged fewer than one 20 game winner in a season. From 1989-1993 it was something like four per year. Tom Glavine had as many 20 win seasons in that stretch as all of MLB did in the last five full seasons.
I knew the Morris one, “he knew how to win” despite a 4 ERA.
It helps when your team scores the second most runs in MLB.
I vaguely remember back when Bob Welch won something like 25 games in the late 80s or early 90s and it’s like, cool, you had Rickey Henderson scoring 100+ runs for you. Having a lineup that involves Rickey Henderson hitting in front of McGwire / Canseco is like starting every game up one run. And you almost never lose a win to a no-decision because Eckersley is pitching the ninth.
Welch went 27-6 in 1990 and only amassed 1.8 fWAR (b-ref was a little kinder at 2.9 bWAR).
I just did a Google search that said that was the last season someone had 33 decisions (I don’t trust that as 100% accurate, but sounds right)
Welch had 5.2 runs of support per game. League average was 4.3. That sure helps!
It would be a hoot if Ashby ends up being the last to do it for several years.
He is off the pace now but I am kind of surprised we haven’t seen more relievers rack up a ridiculous number of wins. All you need is a team that sends out the same reliever whenever it’s a tie game (or being down one run). Adrian Morejon was kind of like that last year.
Looks like Roy Face has the post-integration record for wins at 18. Ashby could still *maybe* beat that, and then it would be one more to 20.
“Who are the last three 20-game winners?” is a pretty good one, at least for me, a guy who is absolutely terrible at these. There’s exactly one for whom I was like “Yeah, that makes sense.”
[HInt one: the oldest is 30.]
[Hint two: they have combined for 0.1 fWAR this year.]
Two of those three made a lot of sense and the third…yeah, wouldn’t have guessed him and I was paying a lot of attention to baseball that year!
The third’s injury issues will forever make me sad. He was so good that year.
It must be Stieb because that’s what I guessed! (incorrectly).
I am trying to gather my thoughts about the Early trade. I have been on the Early bandwagon from start #1 during the playoff chase in 2025. I said it here, loudly, and have never gotten off. Stunned is at the top of those thoughts because Early has shown that he is a solid rotation piece, at least a #3 starter with possible upside. I admit to not knowing much about Mead but my impression from watching him with the Rays was indifferent. He showed very little and there was nothing impressive about him at all. This year has been much better but, in addition, where are the AB’s going to come from. Durbin has locked up 3rd with his recent offense to go along with excellent defense. Siegler has done a good job at 2nd and has provided a spark. Is Mead going to be used as nothing more than the short side of a DH platoon? Next is the question of pitching depth. The Red Sox have been forced to use an opener recently and to trade a starter, a good young starter at that, when the team has had finding 5 starters is questionable. I hope I am wrong but I am afraid this is just the latest Breslow Blunder.
Seigler isn’t supposed to be good. He has been this year, but he’s probably a platoon guy.
I think IKF probably has shortstop locked down unless Mayer returns, in which case maybe they will platoon.
First base is mostly Contreras, with a little bit of Romy Gonzalez.
That leaves Seigler as a platoon bat at 2B and 3B. He can give Mead a rest at 2B (probably) and Durbin a rest at 3B against right handed pitching.
That’s not really a problem so far. But I also assume Romy Gonzalez and Yoshida have DH mostly covered. That means the only real issue comes in if they decide that they don’t want to play Mead at DH to keep PAs for for Yoshida or Romy Gonzalez. Which wouldn’t make sense because Mead has dramatically outhit both of them this year, but they might do it anyway.
Many of the Red Sox’s so-called “logjams” come down to them being unwilling to park Yoshida on the bench or cut him.
“Siegler isn’t supposed to be good.” How about giving him some more time before ignoring his performance. Trading a good, young starter who is under control forever should get a much better return than a player with a half year of above average offense and indifferent defense. Contreras plays every day and I have seen Romy Gonzalez do the job and he is fine as the right-handed DH. The more I think about it the more I can’t understand this deal and you are correct in saying that John Henry’s refusal to eat Yoshida’s contract continues to strangle the roster.
I have a lot of thoughts on this deal and why Breslow did it. I can share that if you want or I can write it out whenever the article on it goes up.
Briefly: I love it from the Nats side and I don’t hate it quite yet from the Red Sox side but I have questions.
What I will say about Seigler is that it is seems unlikely that he’s going to hit left handed pitching effectively over the long term. It’s all small sample stuff right now but he actually stopped switch hitting for a while, presumably because it wasn’t working.
His track record before this year doesn’t suggest he will hit righties effectively either, but at least he is doing it now and he clearly has more confidence in the left handed swing. Since the Red Sox decided that they needed right handed infielders everywhere he and Sogard and Mayer are the only infielders capable of hitting left handed. A platoon role seems like a reasonable thing to keep him in, at least until he can’t do it anymore. Durbin needs a break every now and then and Mead can DH occasionally.
The scuttlebutt I’ve seen elsewhere says that they’ll move Durbin to second and use Mead at 3rd. Definitely not the ideal defensive alignment but it makes more sense than trading a controllable starter for a short side platoon DH
That may be the scuttlebutt but where is the logic and reason. I am not at all certain that the alignment you mention makes the team any better and at the cost of Connelly Early. To make this trade when Siegler is providing major league quality play on both sides of the ball while weakening the pitching makes very little sense. Since it also includes moving Durbin, a superb 3rd baseman, to 2nd makes it still worse. Maybe it won’t turn out to be Dustin May for James Tibbs but I am afraid it might be just as bad both immediately and in the long run.
Tracy said that he will play second, which makes more sense, as his arm isn’t good enough for third.
Everyone wants to move Durbin to second and Mead to third when Durbin seems pretty comfortable at third and Mead is less than ideal there. Durbin might be fine at second too but I certainly wouldn’t change things just for the sake of it!
I’m doing a quick dive into some swing analysis to see if anything changed which could explain Mead being so much better in 2026 than he was in 2022-2025, but I’m not seeing anything. His hand position and stride look pretty much the same to me. His Tilt, AtkAng, and AtkDir are all in line with what he did in previous seasons, which would back my eye test.
His average and maximum exit velocities are the same. His pull rate is up from 34.3% to 48.6% and his pulled fly ball rate is up from 10.7% to 16.2%. His Swing% has dropped from 47.9% to just 40.6%, but the odd thing is that most of that came from Z-Swing% (67.3% to 57.9%) rather than O-Swing (27.8% to 25.0%).
Swinging less and looking for specific locations makes sense for a guy with very good Z-Contact%, but that’s only effective as long as pitchers get behind in the count. If you look at Mead’s heat map this season, he’s doing most of his damage middle up and then has another red dot low and in. He’s not doing anything on the outer third, so what happens if pitchers stop trying to make him chase and just focus on the outside edge?
I don’t get this trade at all. This looks like buying a hot streak to me, and Mead isn’t someone who I would want playing second base regularly. I would be thrilled if my team got Connelly Early for a player with this profile.
I haven’t looked deep in Mead at all, but on the surface his Chase rate, contact rate, ev90, and pulled FB all look fantastic. Not too many guys can hit for real pop, make good swing choices, and limit whiffs
Now, how sticky this is? Im not sure. But nothing hes done this season looks fake. Plus, hes young and there is prospect pedigree so not liike hes coming from nowhere.
There have been sooo many post-hype prospect breakouts this year
Mead’s chase rate, contact rate, and EV90 haven’t changed significantly from the three seasons that he was terrible when the Rays and White Sox gave up on him.
He came into 2026 with three straight seasons of an ISO under .100.
He was traded for Adrian Houser a year ago. Turning that guy into Connelly Early is a massive win for the Nationals.
Top prospects sometimes take a bit to Dev
Kyle Harrison. Miguel Vargas. Jordan walker. All great examples. Ben rice as a late bloomer
Nothing mead is doing looks fake. He’s a very good hitter who has likely figured it out. All his expected starts and underlying data is excellent at the plate
Harrison was never bad, Breslow just dumped him because he’s a bad GM. Rice was never bad either. He was incredibly unlucky on balls in play as a rookie. Vargas and Walker got better by increasing their exit velocity.
If Mead had increased his exit velocity or changed his swing or done anything that helped me understand a genuine mechanical improvement then I would be onboard with his breakout being legitimate. But he didn’t. His exit velocity is the same. His launch angle is the same. His bat speed is actually down.
The exact opposite of this is true. Everything Mead is doing screams that this is a fluke because he hasn’t changed aside from swinging much less often on pitches inside the strike zone. If he had dramatically decreased this O-Swing% then that would be a good sign, but that didn’t happen, as he rarely chased even when he was bad.
What really sealed this for me was looking at the ISO leaderboard. Curtis Mead currently sits 15th. Out of the top fifty batters in ISO, no one has a lower average exit velocity than Mead. The other forty nine all hit the ball harder than he does.
Just like Durbin’s 2025 breakout that Breslow bought high on, this Mead breakout is not real.
Not true. His expected stats are excellent. One of the best combo of contact/pd/power/pull fb in baseball this season and there’s really nothing noisy about it. Also his ev90 is good + he pulls Fb so hes going to produce well in iso.
Also, Durbin on pace for a 2-3 war season and has seen in increase in ISO so not even sure what you’re talking about there. He’s the exact same player
Man denies pulling the ball in the air is a strategy that allows you to outperform traditional expectations in the Year of our Lord 2026.
Hes ignoring Meads sticky breakout this year in favor of his past struggles, but also is ignoring Early’s stuggles this year in favor for those sweet 18 innings in 2025.
Isn’t the most recent data supposed to be the most meaningful, too?!
The thing that I think is weird is pretending that everything about Curtis Mead’s game was terrible before this year. He already did a good job of not chasing, hitting the ball in the air, and making contact in the zone.
If you’d asked prior to this season what he needed the answer would be that he needs to stop getting run over by fastballs and he needs to either hit the ball harder or in a more dangerous direction.
That’s literally what he’s done! I can’t know that it’ll stick, just like I can’t know that literally any change is sticky. But you don’t pull a quarter of your balls in the air by accident, clearly that’s on purpose and clearly it is working.
Obviously when you pull that hard you run into plate coverage issues on the outer half. You know what really helps those issues though? Not chasing and making alot of contact in the zone so you can foul balls on the outside corner off. He does those things!
Yes and he also made swing changes. He improved his swing timing and has seen improvement in his chase% and pull fb% that has allowed for more in game pop. Theres a lot of great articles on it. Its not like he did nothing and magically is a better hitter.
Also, even if he did nothing he always had a lot to work with, theres a reason BA gave him a 70 hit tool and 60 power! He is not that far removed from being a 55FV here and has never really gotten a full go, either.
I don’t get people acting like hes a random old dude whose riding a random wave. Hes a young guy who has made meaningful changes! Now the game is all about adjustments so he is no sure bet (same with Early) but its a pretty fair swap of taleted young dudes who have upside but risks.
I mean, I guess you could argue that Harrison was never bad if you think a 4+ ERA isn’t bad. But the reality is his breakout this year is entirely due to a material change in the way his pitches move that did not occur under Red Sox management. We know this for a fact, because his performance and what he throws is entirely different than anything he’s done prior to this season.
Sure, if you want to say that’s because Breslow’s pitching development staff is worse that the Brewers, that’s fine. It’s also true for every other team in the league.
It is also true that every post hype breakout is due to some other team developing players better than the original team did. That is quite literally why they are post hype.
I also remember Eno Sarris saying he didn’t think Harrison was more than a backend guy and most people thought he was a throw in in the Devers trade
In fact, most people LOVED the Durbin/Harrison swap for the Sox at the time.
Hindsight, baby
Also, why are we pretending Early is a sure thing and Mead is just on a hot streak? They both have about the same MLB level success and are about the same age w the same prospect pedigree.
IMO it looks like a high risk/high reward swap of young controllable players for both sides.
Based on FIP, Early also looks like he’s not a lock to be a #3 or better. And scouting the statcast line, why not believe that Mead could be a .800 OPS guy going forward? He seems to have about average or slightly above raw power to go along with above average chase and K/BB rates. This seems like a fair trade all around.
Early has had bad luck on home runs, which inflated his FIP. His SIERA is 4.03 this season and 3.72 for his career. Trading five and a half seasons of that guy for a career 100 wRC+ below average defender is not a fair trade at all.
Early’s xFIP and xERA are also above 4. He’s running a below average whiff rate and an average walk rate. He’s fine, but I don’t think he’s a #3 right now, and maybe he doesn’t get there.
He’s running an above average whiff rate. His 23.8% K% ranks 34th out of the 93 starters who have pitched at least ninety innings. Early has a better strikeout rate and a better walk rate than Bradish, who the Orioles just gave $90 million.
Why are you using his fluke 19 innings in 2025?
Early has a below average 23% whiff rate this year
I don’t see that he’s running an above average whiff rate. He has an above average K rate as a starter, but I don’t think the underlying metrics (whiff rate) support that. All of his expected stats this year (FIP, xFIP, xERA) suggest an ERA above 4, which is 4th starter. He has IMO a little more upside than that, but that’s what he seems to be right now. If you want to point to 2025 and his minor league record as evidence for that, sure, I buy that there is more upside there. But I don’t see how the stats support him being above average at this exact moment in time.
Because Early doesn’t have three seasons of being a terrible major leaguer. In fact, the only bad pitch he’s had in 2026 is his curveball, as that has been responsible for almost all of the damage against him. His fastball, sinker, slider, and changeup have all been very good.
No, it looks like a typical Breslow trade where he gave away a promising young starter for an infielder on a hot streak.
Early is like a 4th starter. Questionable command with just okay stuff and gives up a ton of homers and doesn’t limit hard contact or get grounders
He’s being wildly overrated due to his 3 starts his rookie year.
This might shock you: but three years of bad MLB play as a young player does not, in fact, cement you as being a bad player. Plenty of good players spent 3 years being bad at the start of their careers.
Mostly Mead is just pulling the ball more. Which is ideal for the park he’s going to. He already didn’t chase much, and now he is more dangerous because he is pulling the ball more, so guys are throwing him less balls in the zone so he walks more.
Also, his major league OPS so far is only 50 points lower than Seigler’s career minor league OPS. He has been good so far this season, but I don’t think there is any objective argument that would see him as being a better future bet than Curtis Mead.
I don’t like Breslow either but trading a potential mid rotation starter for a potential 30 homer position player is a trade that just about any GM would consider, especially for a team as pitching rich as Boston long term.
Yeah, like BTV has Early at +30 and Mead at +20. Considering Early elbow injury, seems quite fair
This might shock you: but four months of good results does not, in fact, mean that you have had a legitimate breakout. Plenty of players spent four months being good in the middle of their careers before going back to what they had been before.
How is Jo Adell’s 2025 breakout looking now? How about Geraldo Perdomo? How about Michael Busch?
This happens every single year. Some players hit a hot streak and fans get excited because they think it will last.
Breslow is the only GM in baseball who would have made this trade, and Mead does not have 30 home run potential. He does currently rank 15th in ISO, but the other forty nine batters in the top fifty all have a higher average exit velocity than he does.
Michael Busch is just fine. His power is down but he is a completely startable first baseman.
Jo Adell was still complete garbage last year he just hit home runs. He still struck out all the time and didn’t walk or play defense.
Geraldo Perdomo has never been a bad player and currently is not a bad player. He was arguably a top 10 player in the league last year and I don’t think anyone expected that to continue.
You keep banging on about his exit velocity, which was already fine, and his launch angle, which was already quite good, while ignoring the obvious change in the direction of his contact and the impact that change in direction has made in the number of pitches he’s seen in the zone.
If you choose to only interact to the data that supports your point and ignore the entire picture, it is amazing how you can choose to have any opinion you want!
jd, I am with you 100%. There is one thing about Early’s performance that has surprised me. One of the reasons I jumped so enthusiastically aboard his band wagon was the exceptionally low HR rate he had throughout his entire minor league career and that carried over during his solid showing at the end of 2025. You accurately diagnosed the problem. Early left a lot of thigh high curve balls in the zone and it seemed like every one got hammered. Batters swings is one of the measuring sticks I use and the hitters haven’t looked comfortable against him. He should shelve the curve because, as you correctly noted, the rest of his stuff plays.
Yeah this is what I noticed too: the big difference appears to be that he is swinging less and it’s paying off for him with walks and contact quality. Note that his hard hit % and barrels have gone up a lot (along with the pulled fly ball). Not to elite levels, but with the walks he’s mostly earned his performance.
It’s weird though because his averages and 90th percentile is in the same place but the hard hit is up, indicating that the EV distribution is probably flatter. He might be doing something different like trading some power for just getting the bat on the ball in some situations while letting it rip in others.
Whether he can keep that up is another thing, and this could just be him “seeing the ball” better. That seems to be where you have ended up. In either case I have been pretty bullish on Connelly Early so I love this trade for Washington regardless of what Mead does.
This is going to sound like a homer response, but I think people are dramatically overrating Earlys 19 inning debut, where he showcased much better command than he had in the minors
His 26 data and 4.33 xERA is probbaly much more in line w his ability. Sox were shopping him around the league.
Thats not to say hes not a quality SP, but probably more of a good backend guy (ceiling mid rotation) than someone w real upside.
Yeah, Early could be close to who has been this season, a #4 type who puts up 2 wins a year. But I also think that people are too quick to move off of deceptive lefties with good extension, and it’s not like his velocity is bad either. “Providing uncomfortable at bats” isn’t enough by itself to make for an ace but it can move you up a tier.
I don’t think anyone could have reasonably expected him to continue where he left off in 2025 but his full career numbers (which seem like a reasonable thing to use in a small sample) puts him around a 3-win guy.
I just dont think his 25 numbers are really any indicication. It was a crazy good 2-3 starts, but hes likley not getting close to that level of k’s or walk prevention or hr supression long term. Kind of like Tanner Houcks first few starts in his career.
So if you wrap those 25 starts into his career numbers, ofc its going to paint a rosier outlook. But just looking at the data now/what he was in the minors, I think its probably more of a 3/4 than a 2/3
That said, I do like the guy a lot and think hes a legit long term major league starter. Extension is legit and hes a tough dude
I mentioned the uncomfortable at bats above and he has funk, deception and extension, all of which play an important role in a pitcher’s effectiveness. To read some of the comments you would think we were commenting on Kyle Freeland. I could easily see Early putting up 20-25 quality starts for years to come.
I mean Freeland way better year two than Early has been so far this year so I am not sure he’s the punching bag I’d choose for that argument.
He ain’t any more.
I mean looking at the data and a couple of clips it looks to me like mostly he is just starting his load earlier and is ahead of fastballs instead of behind. Not only is he pulling the ball way more but his batted ball data for fastballs of all types is way up.
I think there’s a lot of players that generally succeed like this in terms of making lots of contact, most in the air to the pull side, and being willing to take pitches. I don’t really see a huge difference offensively between him and Isaac Paredes. And that profile should really work in Boston.
His defense is another issue, but I think a lot of teams are more willing to live with that than I would be.
I will write more up on this whenever the article goes up but his batted ball profile should work *really* well at Fenway. It is the one thing I like about this from the Red Sox’s perspective, and I like that the Red Sox clearly have a theory of who they like and don’t like. But I also wonder if maybe they’re being a little dogmatic about it.
My worry w him is more the defense. Theyre saying 2B, but no idea if that is viable.
Looking at the defensive stats, he’ll stand at second. I am pretty confident all he’ll be doing is standing there regardless of position.
He’s been terrible going every direction at every position he plays and he’s slow and he has a super weak arm. I’m not sure there are any positives on that side.
Yeah, I guess the idea is hopefully its just below average defense and not terrible defense. Not great defedner + good to great hitter at 2B is fine.
If hes terrible and is a DH, that complicates things for sure. Much more pressure to be a 130 bat as a DH.
Maybe LF is his best spot?
Could be. Though I think Boston puts a higher value on outfield defense than infield defense.
Even if he’s 1B/DH long term those positions may both open up after 2027, maybe even one after 2026 if they find a way to offload Yoshida. I don’t think the defense is such an issue that you can’t just suffer it until those contracts expire. And I don’t really think his profile is viable if he doesn’t get to 130 wRC+ anyway.
Yeah I looked at the spray chart and was like “so he would have hit 25 homers already this season in Fenway with everything being equal”.
I think his xHR is 17 and he would have had 14 at Fenway which is really, really good. Fenway suppresses homers but increases BABIP, and if you’re putting the ball towards left field a lot you can expect a lot of your warning track fly balls to turn into hits. If this is the version of him they are getting they’re going to be real happy.
I like his profile there more than Durbin’s. I feel like Durbin just doesn’t quite have enough raw to pull it off.
Definitely agreed on that. I think that alot of the lift and pull guys don’t really work in Boston the same way they would in Houston because line drive home runs just don’t exist.
I always thought Durbin’s fit was weird but I think his defense and baserunning is valuable enough that he probably can start for anyone.
I am going to debate you on that. Tyler O’Neill, who can’t hit at all, faked his way to a 31 HR season in 2024 and bamboozled the Orioles into giving him $49.5M over three years. Before that Hunter Renfroe popped 31 for the Red Sox in 2021. Whether the ball goes over the wall or puts another dent in it, there can be no question that it is a great park for right-handed pull hitters. Fenway has always been seen as a doubles park and the Red Sox are amongst the leaders every year with Rafaela leading the league. Durbin, now that he appears to be out of his desultory swoon, was never expected to hit for power. I expected a few more than the 11 he hit with Milwaukee and he has 10 and is a plus player in many ways.
Both those guys hit the ball way harder than Durbin and at way higher launch angles? So I’m not sure what their comparisons mean to Durbin in any ways other than they are right handed.
My statement about the lift and pull guys isn’t about the ones with huge power, it’s about the ones like Altuve and Bregman and Paredes. Obviously the ones with legit power can hit it out of Fenway.
Durbin is good. He also has less homers and the same number of doubles in Fenway than on the road. It clearly is not meaningfully impacting his offensive performance at this time.
Also I don’t even agree with the idea that O’Neill can’t hit at all. Sure, he’s a flawed player but he can take a walk and he obliterates the ball when fully healthy.
He’s had two mostly healthy seasons. In both he completely destroyed the ball when he made contact and walked alot. It’s certainly not the most stable profile but it’s just simply not fair to pretend the guy can’t hit at all when mostly he is just permanently injured and has a very low floor due to the plate coverage issues.
Tbf Mead was a decent prospect himself. I 34 overall in 2024. Early was similar, 40. Early has looked good at the major league level, Mead hadn’t, until now. They had him as a 40/50 hit 55/60 power. Nothing looks overly lucky from what he is doing, his babip is actually way down, but he has doubled his walk rate and is striking out less. It is pretty crazy to see a top prospect get cut, then months later traded for a pretty good pitcher… especially when it’s the Rays who traded him, and then the White Sox who cut him. Maybe he didn’t gel with a certain teams analytics, or something. Not everything is cut and dried, and it wouldn’t be the first time a top prospect failed then went to a new team and finally “clicked.”
Also Meads batted ball profile looks really good at Fenway. Why would Boston want to trade Early? Maybe they think his injury is more serious than it is? Most pitchers get hurt. I do think it surprises me from their end, though.
A few years from now we could be calling it the Early trade, or the Mead trade. The most likely outcome is it’s just a trade and neither play becomes a star. But again, who knows.
> Johnny Bench took Steve Carlton deep in three consecutive at-bats on today’s date in 1970.
Holy shit
I assume three consecutive at bats from Bench’s perspective and not Carlton’s.
Yeah. Right.
Anyone going yard 3x on Carlton is incredible, even if it’s another HoFer, right?
The thing that stands out to me is the fact that they left him in *after* Bench hit two homers off of him. Maybe they were solo shots and he was pitching well otherwise but if Willson Contreras or Junior Caminero light up Tarik Skubal twice I highly doubt they get an another shot at him.
The homers came in the 1st, 2nd and leading off the 5th. It might have been the worst start of Carlton’s career, 4+, 10 runs.
I looked and that game was the most runs he ever allowed in a game.
There was also a game against the Cardinals in 1975 where he gave up 8 runs in 1.0 innings.
He was also involved in one of the craziest games in MLB history in 1976 against the Cubs. Carlton gave up 7 runs in 1 2/3 innings as the Cubs built a 12-1 lead. It was still 13-5 heading into the 7th. But the Phillies exploded for 10 runs in the next 3 innings to take a 15-13 lead. The Cubs were down to their last out in the bottom of the 9th when a single plated two runs and sent the game into extra innings. The Phillies scored 3 runs in the top of the 10th to take an 18-15 lead. The Cubs managed one run in the bottom of the inning but ultimately lost 18-16. Mike Schmidt led the way for the Phillies with 4 home runs and 8 RBIs.
One interesting tidbit about Mead is that Rays got him in 1:1 deal in 2019 for Christopher Sanchez, when both were then more uncertain pros.
I always find it fascinating when a team loses two consecutive trades with the same player. You trade away Player A for Player B and he becomes a star. Then you trade away Player B and he *also* becomes a star (TBD on that latter one in this case ).
But the Rays also make an absurd number of trades, so they have or will experience almost every sequence of trade outcomes possible.
As a Rockies fan, my favorite example of this is the A’s trading Carlos Gonzalez (and Huston street) to the Rockies for Matt Holliday, who played half of a down season for Oakland before being traded to St Louis for three guys who would accumulate a total of -0.9 WAR for the As. On reaching St Louis he had a great second half and then several more good years, while Cargo had about a decade of stardom for the Rockies and Street was their closer for three years.
I don’t know if it’s the whole Tigers system, but I have seen Erie play three times this year and they are shockingly aggresive on the base paths. Graham, and Stephenson leading the way but I am sure as a team they have crazy steal numbers