Archive for Adam Jones

If you woke up this morning, looked at the WAR Leaderboards for position players and saw Mike Trout, Jose Altuve, and Manny Machado near the top, you might have had an inclination that all is right with the world. After all, those three players are some of the very best in major-league baseball, and we would expect to see them at the top of the list. Of course, when you look closely at the leaderboard, it’s important to note that there are 171 qualified players. To regard the WAR marks as some sort of de facto ranking for all players would be foolish. For some players, defensive value has a large impact on their WAR total, and it’s important, when considering WAR values one-third of the way into the season, to consider the context in which those figures.

“Small sample size” is a phrase that’s invoked a lot throughout the season. At FanGraphs, we try to determine what might be a small-sample aberration from what could be a new talent level. Generally speaking, the bigger the sample size, the better — and this is especially true for defensive statistics, where we want to have a very big sample to determine a player’s talent level. Last year, I attempted to provide a warning on the reliability of defensive statistics. Now that the season has reached its third month, it’s appropriate to revisit that work.

Read the rest of this entry »

Sort among batters for swinging strike rate over the past three years, and (unsurprisingly) you’ll get a list that features most of the strikeout kings at the plate. Mark Reynolds (17.5% swinging strikes) and Ryan Howard (15.3%) obviously belong based on their respective career strikeout rates (38.7% and 32% respectively). But track a little further down the list and you’ll notice that a high swinging strike rate is not always a harbinger of a high strikeout rate.

You won’t have to go far. Even third place on the list, Josh Hamilton, has a decent strikeout rate (20.6%) despite his high swinging strike rate (13.7%). Delmon Young even pairs a better-than-average strikeout rate (18.6% career) with a top-ten worst swinging strike percentage (12.7%) over the last three years. Clearly, the tendency to swing and miss at offerings is not the sole determinant of a batter’s strikeout rate.

Read the rest of this entry »

The Baltimore Orioles have a difficult task ahead of them the next few years with three juggernauts ahead of them in the American League East. However, since Andy MacPhail took over baseball operations in 2007, the Orioles have positioned themselves for a bright future. Part of this is manifested in their crowded, young, and skilled outfield.

The two best players in the outfield are right fielder Nick Markakis (26 in 2010) and center fielder Adam Jones (24). Combining ZiPS, CHONE, and my own projections for offense and Jeff Zimmerman’s UZR projections and CHONE’s TotalZone for defense, Markakis projects as a +21/150 hitter in 2010, and +2 defender in right field for about 3.6 WAR.Jones’ projections vary more widely, but he comes in at about +9/150 hitting, +1 fielding (both Jones and Markakis had surprising down years defensively in 2009) for about 3.2 WAR. Those are the obvious guys. For the remaining outfield spot, the Orioles have three candidates: Nolan Reimold, Felix Pie, and Luke Scott.

The 26 year-old Reimold will probably begin 2010 in left field, assuming he recovers well from ankle surgery. Reimold came on strong in 2009, projecting at about +12/150 offensively. His defense was less impressive, and he projects as a about a -6/150 defender in left field. Overall, that’s about about a league-average player. Still, there’s a lot of uncertainty in his defensive projection, and he is young.

While Reimold is the popular choice to start in left field, it’s not obviously the correct choice. While Felix Pie projects as the worst hitter in the group a -4/150, he’s also as good or better than Jones as a center fielder (+2), which would translate to about +12 in left field. So he projects as about a league average (2.0 WAR) player, and is the second-youngest player in the group (only to Jones). While he probably won’t ever be the superstar people though he would be become before the Cubs started jerking him around (as is their tradition), he’s young, good, and has little enough service time that it’s understandable why other teams are interested in obtaining him, and also why the Orioles have so far refused to sell him for a bag of magic beans.

Scott is the odd man out in this situation, but it’s hardly due to a lack of talent. As a hitter, he projects at +11/150. Despite being primarily a designated hitter in 2009, his past performance in the field suggests that is a waste of his talents, as he projects as +2 in left field — clearly better than Reimold. Overall, that makes Scott about a 2.5 WAR player.

The Orioles are in an enviable position of not only having excess talent in the outfield, but not necessarily having to trade any of them. Scott is an underrated player, but given his age (32), arbitration status, and the Orioles overall situation, he should be the first to go. But it’s not as if his arbitration award will be onerous relative to his value. If he’s willing to move to first base (despite his defensive ability), that would fill a hole for the Orioles. But he might have the most value in trade to a team that needs a left fielder, where his skills are best utilized as a 2-2.5 WAR outfielder rather than a 1-1.5 WAR DH.

Pie is the wildcard, as he’s barely older than Jones, and perhaps the most defensively skilled player of the group. Baltimore has understandably committed to Jones in center given his superior bat (although Pie has better plate discipline). While Reimold is the popular choice to start in left, Pie’s far superior defensive skills make him more than just a fourth outfielder. For the future, the Orioles might be best off trading Pie and/or Scott for prospects and/or filling another area of need in the majors. On the other hand, especially in Pie’s case, he’s young, cheap, and skilled enough that they don’t have to trade him, and can certainly find something for him to do around the office. Not many teams find themselves in such a comfortable situation.

Click here to enter your projections for the Orioles various outfielders.

It must be depressing times for Seattle Mariners fans. Not only is the club mired in a 46-80 season, but there is a bitter aftertaste lingering in most fans’ mouths thanks to last winter’s Erik Bedard trade.

It is rare for a multi-player trade to work out perfectly for a club receiving five “lesser” players in return for one established Major League star, but it’s come pretty close to perfect for Baltimore. Adding insult to injury is the fact that Bedard has hardly been a savior for the Mariners’ rotation and he hasn’t really fit in in Seattle leading to rumors that the club would like to trade him. That said, his numbers look OK on the surface and he has allowed just 70 hits in 81 innings to go along with 31 walks and 72 strikeouts.

Let’s take a look at the players the Mariners gave up:

Who would have thought that a LOOGY would suddenly become so valuable? George Sherrill, who made his MLB debut at the age of 27 and spent parts of four seasons facing nothing but left-handed batters, has saved 31 games for the Orioles this season, solidifying the back end of the bullpen. The Mariners relievers, on the other hand, have managed just 23 saves as a team and rock-solid closer J.J. Putz has pitched, well, like a putz.

Considered the key ingredient in the trade from Baltimore’s perspective, Adam Jones has had an up-and-down season as a 22-year-old (now 23) everyday outfielder. He has a line of .279/.320/.405 with seven homers and eight stolen bases in 398 at-bats. Jones has walked just 19 times to go along with 92 strikeouts. Basically he has been Delmon Young-lite.

Right-hander Chris Tillman, 20, has been the true steal of the trade and has rocketed up prospect lists everywhere to become one of the top five pitching prospects in Double-A and Triple-A combined. In Double-A this season, Tillman has allowed just 106 hits in 124.2 innings, along with 59 walks and 139 strikeouts. As well, he has as many wins – nine – as home runs allowed. Right-handed batters are hitting just .218 against him and he could make his Major League debut next season at the age of 21.

Kam Mickolio was added to the Orioles’ 25-man roster earlier this week. The 24-year-old right-hander stands 6-9 and towers over opponents. His first Major League appearance was a little rough as he allowed three hits and one runs in one inning, but he did strike out two batters. Between Double-A and Triple-A this season, Mickolio allowed 50 hits in 56.1 innings with 29 walks and 60 strikeouts. He allowed just two home runs.

Tony Butler, a 6-7, 20-year-old hurler, has been the quietest player obtained in the fateful deal. He started out the season OK in A-ball by allowing 59 hits and 11 walks in 55 innings. After his June 19 start (He allowed five runs in three innings), though, Butler went on the disabled list with arm problems and has not been seen since.

So there you have it. The Orioles received a solid closer, starting outfielder, middle reliever, top pitching prospect and a young, dark horse prospect for a pitcher that has already worn out his welcome in his new home.

Not bad.